Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

PRESEASON vs. ACTUAL RESULTS

As you can see from the preseason predictions I made on the Missouri Valley conference back in October versus how things ended up, the MVC turned out to be difficult to predict this year as none of the teams performed as expected other than Northern Iowa and Wichita State.

I originally was not sold on the Panthers, but as the season wore on, I could see the cohesiveness and all the little things this group of players do to win games.  Even with the suspension of Jordan Eglseder in three of the final four games, they were able to rally for the most part and continue their dominance in the Valley.  Wichita State may have surprised some, but the Shockers appear to be back in the Valley picture after a few year absence from relevance.  The work Gregg Marshall has done to build this team back up from scratch has paid off.  The question now is whether it is enough to get to an NCAA Tournament postseason.

HELLO SAINT LOUIS

The Missouri Valley Conference tournament will take place this coming week at the Scottrade Center in downtown Saint Louis.  Rush the Court will be live in St. Louis this week to keep you updated on the things going on at Arch Madness.  Here is how the bracket shapes up:

Teams to watch in the MVC Tournament

It looks that if Northern Iowa wins the MVC tournament for the third straight year, the MVC will be a one-bid league.  The only way that the Valley will get two teams into the NCAA Tournament is if someone knocks off the Panthers.  If that is going to happen, here are the teams to watch:

• Wichita State—For the first time in conference tourney history, there will be two teams entering with 23 or more wins.  Northern Iowa is one and the Shockers are the other.  Both teams have split their season series against each other and it is possible the rub will come in the tournament finals.  It could be quite a battle.  However the loss of David Kyles for the season could create some depth problems for the Shockers.
• Illinois State—For the first time since 1992, two players from the same team have led the conference in scoring (Osiris Eldridge) and rebounding (Dinma Odiokosa).  Add in the third option of Lloyd Phillips and the Redbirds  are hoping the third time is a charm as they have appeared in the last two tournament finals.
• Creighton—Coach Dana Altman has a history of gearing his teams up for the conference tournament.  Creighton owns the most MVC tournament titles with ten, the last coming in 2007.   Despite the rocky season the Bluejays have had, they have won three in a row (their first three-game streak all season) heading into the tournament
• Missouri State—The Bears have been the overachievers in the conference this season with the best record heading into conference play.  Since then, they have been up and down.  They are the first team since the MVC tournament expanded with more than 17 wins to play in the Thursday night play-in game. Don’t be surprised if the Bears get a couple of wins and really be a threat to the higher seeded teams.

TEAM EVALUATION and POSTSEASON OUTLOOK

After playing in Saint Louis this week, some teams will have their season come to an end while others will make appearances in the postseason.  With the assumption Northern Iowa wins the conference tournament, here is the outlook for the other Valley teams.

• Northern Iowa (Projection—NCAA Tournament)—We must mention Northern Iowa in the unlikely chance they lose in the MVC Tournament.  If the Pac-10 gets two teams in the NCAA Tournament this season, then the MVC should get two teams in as well.  If you do a comparison statistically, both conferences are really pretty much the same this season.  If Northern Iowa loses their first round game, then they may need to panic, but for a team that has been ranked a good part down the stretch, they should still be in a good position to make the tournament.   We also know that the MVC Player of the Year will come from Northern Iowa, but the question is, who will it be?
• Wichita State (Projection—NIT)—The Shockers have had a nice season and their 23 wins are nice to look at. However, they missed opportunities when they lost at Northern Iowa and allowed Evansville to get their first conference win of the season against them.   They also went 4-4 down the stretch which isn’t as impressive as it could be.   The lost great opportunities against Pitt which made them miss out on playing Texas in the CBE Classic and the rest of the non-conference opponents were not great competition, but scheduling was done well for this team that had not had very much success the past couple of seasons.  They should be a lock for the NIT.
• Illinois State  (Projection-NIT)—The Redbirds have been the hottest team in the Valley down the stretch, winning six of their last seven games.  Unfortunately that one loss was against conference champion Northern Iowa on Senior Day.  As it has been documented before, the Redbirds did not have a top-notch non-conference schedule.  However, they have been a solid team and could warrant an invite to the NIT with a couple wins in the MVC Tournament.  Things could be electric if they meet Northern Iowa again in the conference tournament.
• Creighton  (Projection—CBI or CIT)—The Bluejays have probably been one of the bigger disappointments in the Valley this season.  They had toughened the schedule, but they were all on the road.  Injuries (Justin Carter), illnesses (Casey Harriman), and distractions (P’Allen Stinnett) could be some of the excuses that this team was not successful, but instead it has just been lack of toughness and players willing to step up.  Chad Millard, who transferred from Louisville four years ago, also feels like injuries kept him from being a better contributor.  Coach Altman has focused things on the future as the starting lineup for the last three games (which have been wins) has included two freshman, a sophomore and a junior to play along Justin Carter.  Kenny Lawson is probably the only player on the Bluejays this season that warrants all-conference consideration.  A couple wins in the MVC Tourney and they can extend their current 13 consecutive seasons to the postseason.
• Bradley (Projection—none)—The clock is ticking on Jim Les’ future in Peoria.  For the fifth straight year, the Braves are playing in the 4 vs. 5 game in the MVC Tournament and have not risen back to the glory of going to the Sweet 16 four seasons ago.  They have been 5-5 in the last ten games of the season.  They lost at Creighton for the twelfth straight time on Saturday.  Unless the Braves get to the tournament final, there is not a postseason to be had for this team.   Their performance in the non-conference was not very good and they lost to teams they shouldn’t have.
• Indiana State (Projection-none)—Indiana State  really had a decent season and Kevin McKenna is helping to get this team relevant again in the Valley.  The Sycamores lost Jake Kelly early in the conference season and then lost leading scorers Dwayne Latham and Harry Marshall at about the same time down the MVC stretch run.  Marshall was able to come back for the season finale against Missouri State and lead the team to a win with a 33-foot shot at the end of the game.  With a large core of players again coming back next season with a couple seasons under their belt, there could be some higher expectations going into next season.
• Missouri State (Projection—CBI or CIT)—The Bears have the opportunity for being rewarded for an outstanding season.  After last season, it appeared Missouri State had a lot more rebuilding to do than they realized and were not projected to do that well this season.  After a strong run out of the gate, this team played some great defense while at the same time having some stellar offense from Kyle Weems and Adam Leonard.  After losing on a last second shot Saturday against Indiana State, the Bears get an extra game by playing on Thursday night in Saint Louis which could garner them their twentieth win of the season.  That could be enough to get them to some postseason play.
• Drake (Projection-none) –Drake’s season turned out pretty much as I had predicted.  They are still trying to reach the level they attained two seasons ago by winning the conference regular season and tournament titles.  Josh Young is leaving as the Bulldogs’ all-time leading scorer.   Their season low came against SIU-Edwardsville who defeated the Bulldogs on their home court in their own tournament.  That was definitely a black eye for the conference.  Drake does have the number one rated recruiting class for the Valley coming in next season.  We will have to see if that turns into results.
• Southern Illinois  (Projection-none)—Although the Salukis will finish the season at .500 or better, it still probably does not meet the expectations of the fans down in Carbondale.  After going to the postseason for ten straight seasons, they will not go to the postseason for the second straight year.  In the season finale, the Salukis got a “butt-beat.” Many are questioning Chris Lowery’s recruiting while some wonder if he will head out of Carbondale over to Depaul.  Either way, the Lowery tenure may not be lasting that much longer and he probably has one more season to show Saluki fans what he can do.
• Evansville (Projection-none)—The Purple Aces had to rebuild from scratch this season.  The bright spot—Colt Ryan and Denver Holmes.  These two players  are building the foundation  for the future and if the last few games of the season were any indication, this team may look a lot better heading into next season.  After starting the conference season 0-13, they went 2-1 in the final three conference games.   With everyone back for next season, the Aces will not finish last.

1. Northern Iowa  19-2  (10-1) (1)
2. Wichita State 19-4 (8-3) (2)
3. Illinois State  15-7 (6-5) (3)
4. Drake  11-12 (6-5)  (4)
5. Creighton  11-11 (6-5)  (6)
6. Missouri State  15-7 (5-6) (7)
7. Indiana State  13-9 (5-6) (9)
8. Bradley  10-11 (5-6) (5)
9. Southern Illinois   12-9 (4-7) (8)
   
10. Evansville 6-15 (0-11) (10)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Northern Iowa wrapping things up—The Panthers are sitting pretty at 10-1 in the conference and survived a threat from Missouri State this weekend.  Northern Iowa’s ability to hang on and finish games will make them a tough out.  As they head into February, they are setting themselves up for an at-large bid to the Big Dance whether they win the conference tourney or not.  Keep an eye on this team down the stretch.  Many coaches in the Valley feel they will be a multiple bid league this season.

Bracketbusters pairings announced this week—Once again for the 8^th year, the made for TV Bracketbusters event is ready to be promoted throughout this month leading up to Bracketbuster Saturday on February 19^th.  Out of the 98 teams in the event this season, 22 teams will get on TV and those pairings will be announced this week.  Here are some predictions and here are some others.

P’Allen Stinnett Suspended indefinitely—Big news this week was the announcement by Dana Altman of the Creighton Bluejays that P’Allen Stinnett has been suspended from the team indefinitely.  Stinnett was highly regarded as a freshman and made an impact early with 23 points in the second half off the bench in his first collegiate game against Depaul to bring Creighton back to victory.  Over the past couple of seasons, Stinnett’s stats have leveled out and has had problems holding in his emotions, gathering nine technical fouls (including one this week against Missouri State in where he “felt like he needed a T”)  in two and a half seasons.  There has been no explanation on how long he has been suspended and if he will eventually return to the team.

Free throw shooting Valley—The Missouri Valley conference is pretty stable at the free throw line.  Four MVC teams are in the top 20 in the nation at the stripe. Indiana State (76.7%) is fifth, followed by Wichita State in eighth (75.5%), Drake at 13th (75.1%), and Missouri State in 19th (74.8%).

SEPARATING THEMSELVES

Northern Iowa (2-0 this week)— As mentioned above, Northern Iowa is just cruising through the league getting victories against in-state rival Drake and then surviving down in Springfield against Missouri State.  They are eagerly anticipating their Bracketbusters opponent which some say could be Old Dominion, while others are saying Louisiana Tech.  They hope to return a favor to Wichita State this week as they host the Shockers who have been the ones to defeat the Panthers so far in the conference season.  They will also host a struggling Southern Illinois team.

Wichita State (1-0 this week)—The Shockers are trying to keep pace with Northern Iowa by getting victories over Illinois State and Southern Illinois.   Wichita hopes to have a chance at the league title by trying to beat Northern Iowa for the second time this season.  But it will be a lot tougher on the road.   They do not want to be like the 2004-05 team down the stretch.  The Sycamores of Indiana State will be visiting Koch Arena this week as well.  It is very likely the Shockers will be one of the Bracketbuster TV games.

MEDIOCRE AT BEST

Illinois State  (1-1 this week)— The Redbirds are one of several Valley teams that cannot seem to find consistency, causing a huge logjam in the middle of the conference.  They missed an opportunity to move up the ladder by losing to Wichita State earlier in the week, but then just completely demolished in-state rival Bradley this past weekend.  If the Redbirds are to be a factor, they need someone else other than Osiris Eldridge to be on the court making plays and that guy is Lloyd Phillips.  They hope the momentum gained from the Bradley win will take them to victories against Indiana State and Drake this week.

Missouri State (1-1 this week)—Missouri State lost a couple close contests this week against Creighton and split seconds from taking down Northern Iowa.  The Bears are now sitting on the outside looking in on the conference race.   They are the top scoring team in the league, but last in scoring defense.   It will not be any easier for them as they will take on conference stalwarts Southern Illinois and Creighton this week.

Drake (1-1 this week)—Drake is a bit of a surprise in the conference.  After losing their first four conference games, they have reeled off six wins in their last seven games and are coming together quite well as a team.  Against Creighton, they had their largest crowd of the year.  Josh Young will become Drake’s all-time leading scorer before the season is over.  They will be tested on the road this week at Bradley and Illinois State.  They get two wins this week, and this will be the Valley turnaround of the year.

Creighton  (1-1 this week)—With the suspension of P’Allen Stinnett, the Bluejays overcame some adversity to get the win in Peoria.  But the additional loss of Darryl Ashford for the  game at Drake was a little too much. Stinnett had this to say to the Omaha World Herald in a text message. “I need to find some way to play hard and channel my emotions in a positive way. I apologize to Creighton, to my team and my coaching staff in my failure to represent the university with the respect and attitude that I should.”  Creighton tries to stay alive with games against Evansville and a trip to Missouri State this week.

Indiana State (2-0 this week)—Subject to streakiness, the Sycamores have been one of the more confusing teams in the conference.  This week they won two games against Southern Illinois and Evansville breaking a 5-game losing streak tradition that they seem to have every season at some point in the conference season.   That probably means they will go 0-2 against Wichita State and Illinois State.

MAKING AN APPEARANCE

Southern Illinois (1-2 this week)—Southern Illinois started a three game week by getting an out of conference visit by Western Kentucky which they won and thought they were turning a corner, but then they could not get by Indiana State and lost to Wichita State at home.  Could Creighton and Southern Illinois both finish with a losing record and at the bottom of the conference?  That could be a possibility.  With Missouri State and Northern Iowa on the slate this week, Southern Illinois has a lot to worry about.

Bradley (0-2 this week) – At the beginning of the season, I saw Jim Les squarely on the hot seat and many people including Bradley fans couldn’t believe I would say that.  But how do things look now in Peoria?  First they come out cold against Creighton starting the game 2-17 from the field, and although they came back, it was not enough to get the win.  Then they travelled along I-76 to take on rival Illinois State and were basically run out of the gym.  They could look on the bright side, but I don’t know if it will help.  It will be interesting how they do against a surging Drake and really down Evansville team this week.

Evansville (0-2 this week, 12 game losing streak)—The Aces are working hard, and they keep games fairly close, as evidenced by losses against Missouri State and Indiana State this past week, but they just cannot get a win.  Injuries are not a concern — the team’s all healthy.   A visit to Creighton and at home against Bradley are on the slate this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are able to pick up a win against the Braves.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

The battle for the middle of the pack and staying out of Thursday in St. Louis continues this week

• 2/3, Wichita State @ Northern Iowa (Local TV in both markets)—Wichita’s last chance to make a run at UNI for the conference championship. Too bad this game isn’t available to a wider audience.
• 2/6,  Creighton @ Missouri State (Local TV in Omaha)—Both teams need a win badly.
• 2/6,  Drake @ Illinois State (Local TV in Illinois)—Drake is on a roll but a win here would really be a surprise.   The Redbirds, on the other hand, still want to be in the running and talked about.
• 2/6, Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa (ESPN2)—The Panthers aren’t the flashiest team in the world, but they find ways to win.  The Salukis are not the Salukis of old.
• 2/6, Bradley @ Evansville (Fox Sports Net)—Interesting in that it’s a chance for Evansville to get their first conference win of the season.

1. More than the countless Big East tournament runs at the Garden, or the contention for conference regular season titles on a yearly basis, or reaching upper-echelon status in college basketball playing with no flashy All-American recruits, Jamie Dixon is proving his worth as a coach this year more than ever. Few teams lost as much talent, leadership, and production as senior point guard Levance Fields, dominating big man DeJuan Blair and outside threat Sam Young. The departure of these three mainstays plus two projected starters for 2009-10, Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown, beginning the year MIA prompted many preseason prognosticators (including myself) to deem Pittsburgh a non-contender in the rugged Big East. My mistake, Jamie. The Panthers just finished one of their most difficult Big East road stretches of the year with two statement victories at previously undefeated Syracuse and at fringe-ranked Cincinnati. Sophomore Ashton Gibbs is taking his experience from playing under Dixon at the U19 Games to good use, running the Pitt offense with superb efficiency, shooting the ball lights out from deep and breaking the all-time Pitt record for consecutive free throws made in the process. Brown has his academics in order and used his athleticism to make a few back-breaking baskets against Cincy last night. Dixon provides stellar defense and outside shooting. It remains to be seen whether Pitt can stay at the top of the Big East with less talent than the other squads, but we do know that Dixon’s team will play smarter and tougher than any opponent. And that always gives them a fighting chance.

2. The most significant win this New Year’s week had to be Purdue running away from West Virginia to remain unblemished and surpass the Mountaineers as a projected #1 seed at this stage of the season. Purdue and coach Matt Painter have constructed their program unlike many of their other counterparts atop the rankings on a weekly basis. There’s no Xavier Henry, Avery Bradley, Devin Ebanks or John Wall walking through the doors of Mackey Arena to play for the Boilers for one or two years; instead, their 2009-10 highly ranked squad features a group of players that have been together for three straight seasons, such a rarity in the age of one-and-done players and the glorification of NBA riches. This specific group of players- Robbie Hummel, Chris Kramer, JaJuan Johnson, E’Twaun Moore, Keaton Grant- have practiced and played together for three straight years now, stepping up the ladder slowly but surely in the college hoops landscape. They took the Big Ten by surprise in 2007-08 before falling in the second round to Xavier and climbed up another step by reaching the Sweet 16 a season ago. This year they hope to reach the top and cut down the nets in nearby Indianapolis with a group of kids that have been through the ups and downs of a college basketball season together more than once- a group of lightly-recruited but tough-minded individuals that will utilize defensive intensity and offensive efficiency to reach the ultimate goal Hummel, Johnson, Moore and others been striving for since arriving in West Lafayette.

3. Think about this for a second: Despite losing three four-year starters that all played 30+ MPG and notched 10+ PPG, Marquette coach Buzz Williams would probably tell you that his Golden Eagles should be staring at a 12-2 (2-0) record with wins over top-ten Villanova and West Virginia and another top-25 team in Florida State. Typical of young, inexperienced squads, Marquette has simply been unable to close games this season against stellar competition. If Darius Johnson-Odom and Jimmy Butler don’t miss two front ends of 1-and-1 opportunities, Da’Sean Butler’s game-winning shot never happens and Marquette has the second most impressive road win in the country this season (just behind Pitt stunning Syracuse). Up two Saturday against Villanova, Johnson-Odom again stepped to the line up two points and 2:35 left on the clock. Both of those attempts bricked, and, couple that with a bunny missed by Butler at the buzzer, the Golden Eagles again fell just short. Rewind back to November in the Old Spice Classic where Marquette held a 30-18 lead at half against FSU and a 10-point cushion midway through the second half, but squandered the lead. I haven’t even included the NC State game where Marquette lead by 11 at the intermission. Closing out games has been a devastating problem for Buzz Williams’ squad this season, and these close losses could very well cost Marquette a spot in the field come March if they’re sitting on the bubble.

4. There are three teams I’m still trying to figure out as we head into conference play. Two reside in the ACC with a combined record of 28-2: Virginia Tech and Miami. While the records are surely impressive, I can’t help but still project both of these teams to finish in the lower five in the ACC standings. The Hokies boast a solid three with Dorenzo Hudson, Jeff Allen and Malcolm Delaney, but their wins in non-conference play have been less than thrilling- at Iowa, at Penn State, Georgia and Seton Hall. Miami’s schedule has been even more pathetic, ranking #333 in all of Division I. The only wins of note are Minnesota in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge and collapsing South Carolina on a neutral floor, while their lone loss to Boston College is looking worse and worse (Harvard and Maine have both won at BC). So pardon me if I’m not getting all hot and bothered about two ACC teams with padded records that simply have not been tested by any elite competition. The most intriguing team is Baylor at 11-1 with wins over Xavier on a neutral floor, at Arizona State and convincing wins at Arkansas and South Carolina. Again, that non-conference resume doesn’t blow anyone away, but the Bears have pieces like Ekpe Udoh (averaging a double-double) and double digit poppers LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter. Out of these three question marks, I’d say Baylor has the best chance of dancing come March.

Malcolm Delaney/Boston.com

5. All I keep hearing about nationally is how improved Conference USA is compared to previous years. While there are surely more teams capable of giving elite squads a fight to the finish with programs such as UTEP, Tulsa and Marshall showing more life, only UAB has truly been able to capitalize on their opportunities for marquee wins out of conference. While the Virginia loss and struggle against Arkansas was a step back, the Blazers sweep last week over Cincinnati and Butler will prove enormously important as the season progresses. Other than UAB, the conference has whiffed on other golden opportunities. UTEP is the perfect example: Their best out-of-conference win is over an NIT-bound Oklahoma team on a neutral floor. Given a chance to beat two top-30 teams on their home floor- Mississippi and Texas Tech- the Miners blew second-half leads and lost each game in heartbreaking fashion. Memphis played two outstanding teams in Kansas and Tennessee and lost both; now they head into C-USA play with their best non-conference win against Oakland. Tulsa went to Vegas for a competitive four-team round robin and left 0-2 with losses to Nevada and Nebraska while a loss at Missouri State in late November could linger. Conference USA may be more “competitive” from top to bottom with Memphis down a few pegs, but let’s not include them in the same breath as the Mountain West and Atlantic-10 as of now.

6. Any doubts about whether Kansas deserves their #1 ranking were answered Saturday in the thumping of Temple in their first true road win of the season. To put into context just how badly Kansas abused Temple’s stingy defense, remember that the Jayhawks surpassed Temple’s PPG allowed to that point at the 12-minute mark of the second half and ended up scoring 84 points in the contest. Temple had only allowed 70 points or more to an opponent once this season prior to Saturday. Kansas is also an extremely efficient team on both ends of the floor. We know that Sherron Collins, Xavier Henry, Cole Aldrich, Tyshawn Taylor and company can light it up on the offensive end, but coach Bill Self has to be thrilled that his team currently ranks third in defensive efficiency in the nation to this point (aided by a poor non-conference slate relative to other top teams, but still). In fact, Kansas and Duke are the only two teams currently top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency in the nation as the Jayhawks rank second in that category. In case you’re wondering, Duke is first in offense and sixth in defense while Big 12 rival Texas is first in defense. Maybe we shouldn’t chalk up the February meeting between Kansas and Texas as a barnburner just yet.

7. My top five most disappointing teams in the nation in order from most to least: Oklahoma, Michigan, Oregon State, South Carolina, Creighton. Not to strut my stuff or anything, but it was pretty clear to me folks were overrating the Sooners in the preseason. But I still expected Jeff Capel to incorporate two McDonalds All-Americans into an offense constructed around Willie Warren and Tony Crocker that lingers around the top-25 and contends in the Big 12. Instead, Capel has had to call out Warren publicly on his lack of leadership on and off the floor and OU is staring at 9-5 after a disappointing football season to boot. Maybe losing two games up in Alaska to San Diego and Houston should have been a warning sign, but the swoon hasn’t been contained since then. Michigan has also been a royal disappointment despite beating rival Ohio State at home Sunday. For the Wolverines, it’s quite simple: they take a lot of threes and miss a lot of threes (30% as a team). It’s a two-man team at this point with Manny Harris an established star and DeShawn Sims showing up one night (Ohio State) and disappearing the next (Indiana). Just when it seemed like Oregon State was turning a corner as a program under Craig Robinson, the Beavers have fallen to some grossly inferior opponents in non-conference play and appear destined to miss out on any postseason play. South Carolina has a slight excuse with Dominique Archie’s injury, but losing three of four to Wofford, Boston College and Baylor with the dismissal of starter Mike Holmes (11.0 PPG) has put a fork in the Gamecocks. I still get the vibe Creighton has a run in them, but 6-8 (1-2) is discouraging for Dana Altman.

8. There was some hope this season that the three New York-area schools in the Big East- St. John’s, Seton Hall and Rutgers- would turn the corner and contend for serious postseason play. It now appears like 2009-10 may be another lost year for three disappointing programs that play in a recruiting hotbed and once featured proud basketball traditions. St. John’s hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2002 and current coach Norm Roberts has a 64-85 record as the headman despite playing their home games in the most famous arena in the world. Following a total collapse at home against middling Providence, the Johnnies sit at 10-4 (0-2) with an important trip to vulnerable Louisville ahead. Seton Hall rolled to an 8-0 start but have lost four of five with their best non-conference win at Cornell; Bobby Gonzalez is still looking for his first trip to the dance as head coach. Rutgers didn’t reach the NCAA Tournament once this decade and are once again floundering under Fred Hill. Losing big man Gregory Echenique for the season stung and Rutgers appears destined for the bottom of the Big East. Three schools in an area so basketball tradition-rich, you’d think at least one might be able to contend on a yearly basis.

9. Don’t look now, but Oregon may have the juice to start 5-0 in the Pac-10. The most stunning development over the weekend has to be the Ducks sweeping the Washington schools on the road, even walking into a difficult arena in Seattle and wiping the floor of the ranked Huskies. The Ducks scored 90+ points in both wins under Ernie Kent’s high-powered offensive attack led by speedy quick guards Tajuan Porter and Malcolm Armstead. Throw in a paint presence in center Michael Dunigan and a promising freshman in Jamil Wilson and it’s quite possible the Ducks could have some staying power atop the weak Pac-10. With three home games approaching against Oregon State, Arizona and Arizona State, a 5-0 start is extremely realistic heading into a showdown January 21 at California. After non-conference losses to Montana, Portland and a 37-point defeat to Missouri, who ever thought this was possible?

Tajuan Porter/ Phoenixhoops.net

10. Despite a New Year’s Eve marathon packed with action and an entertaining slate of games this past weekend, it was off-the-court turmoil that dominated the headlines surrounding the sport we love. Following an emotional rivalry win at Memphis Thursday, four of Tennessee’s most vital players- senior Tyler Smith, sharpshooter Cameron Tatum, backup point Melvin Goins and big man Brian Williams- were pulled over in a car containing marijuana and guns with altered serial numbers inside. Coach Bruce Pearl immediately suspended the four players indefinitely and apologized profusely over the weekend for his players’ actions. He wouldn’t specify whether any or all of these players in question would play this week against Charlotte or Kansas, but knowing Pearl’s ultra-competitiveness, why do I get the itchy feeling he’s going to do all he can to have these players on the court this Sunday against the top-ranked Jayhawks? Although an agitated Tennessee AD Mike Hamilton did say that “for me it means we start at dismissal and work our way backward. It doesn’t mean we start at one game and work our way forward.” One of Tennessee’s two non-conference losses came at the hands of USC, a team that was informed Sunday that they wouldn’t be able to participate in the Pac-10 or NCAA Tournaments this season. It’s sad and unfortunate that current players have to be punished for these transgressions that occurred two years ago, especially because the Trojans may have been headed for a top-three Pac-10 finish and a NCAA berth. USC boasted wins over Tennessee and UNLV and were finally playing at full strength. It’s hard not to feel terrible for seniors Dwight Lewis, Mike Gerrity and Marcus Johnson. In light of the Reggie Bush situation, maybe it’s time for the USC AD to look himself in the mirror and resign.

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current records and my standings (Conference Standings) (Last Week):

1. Northern Iowa 12-1 (3-0) (3)
2. Wichita State 13-2 (2-1) (1)
3. Missouri State 12-2 (2-1) (2)
4. Illinois State 11-3 (2-1) (5)
5. Southern Illinois 9-3 (2-1) (4)
6. Indiana State 10-4 (2-1) (6)
7. Bradley 6-7 (1-2) (8)
8. Creighton 6-8 (1-2) (9)
9. Evansville 6-7 (0-3) (7)
10. Drake 5-10 (0-3) (10)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Northern Iowa mowing down the Valley — Those that don’t consider Northern Iowa the class of the Valley need to have their head examined (including myself, before now).  The Panthers are on an 11-game winning streak after following a tough road win against Creighton in Omaha with victories against Evansville and Missouri State to race out to a 3-0 conference record in the first week.

Should be an interesting Conference Season — After the first week, six teams have gotten out to 3-0 or 2-1 records.  The games have all been mostly competitive so far and it will be interesting to see if a few teams will break out of the pack or if they will be spending the season beating up on each other, which may hurt their postseason plans.  If this conference is going to have multiple bids this season, there will need to be a few teams that need to separate themselves, or it could end up being a one-bid league again.  I am sure Bradley and Creighton still think they have something to say about things as well.

TEAMS TO BEAT

Northern Iowa (3-0 this week) — As mentioned above, the Panthers have won three games to start the conference season.  Their shooting percentage against Creighton was not that great, but they left Omaha with a win.  It took a second half rally to get past Missouri State.  The next big test for them will come this week with a road trip to Southern Illinois and Illinois State.

SOLID WEEK

Southern Illinois (2-1 this week) — The Salukis are trying to re-establish themselves as the cream of the Valley once again.  They are definitely starting off better than they did last season.  Things looked pretty good when they took out Indiana State and Bradley earlier this week, but then they played mediocre basketball against the Illinois State Redbirds and couldn’t get over the hump to steal a victory there.  Luckily for the Salukis they get some home cooking this week as they host conference leader Northern Iowa and Drake.

Missouri State (2-1 this week) — Missouri State will be interesting to watch during conference season.  They have been a surprise so far with their non-conference record as well as two victories over Evansville and Illinois State to start conference season.  A loss against Northern Iowa was a bit expected.  The jury is still out on this team and it will be interesting to see how they react by hosting Wichita State and Bradley this week.  Adam Leonard has the nickname “Iceman” now with his cool demeanor and free throw shooting ability with the game on the line.

Wichita State (2-1 this week) — Wichita had been riding high after getting some votes for the Top 25 and several feature articles on them.   They started off the conference season, however, at Illinois State, and had their nine-game winning streak snapped.  They then summoned the moxie to turn around and get wins at home against Bradley and Drake.  This week will be an important week for them as they go to conference surprise Missouri State and host Creighton.   If Wichita is going to continue to be successful, it falls on the shoulders of David Kyles and Garrett Stutz.   In other news, the city of Wichita is excited to open a brand new arena in town, but the Shockers are probably only going to play once or twice a year there.

Indiana State (2-1 this week) — Kevin McKenna is really starting to show why he was hired to take over the reins of the Indiana State team a couple seasons ago.  This team is really playing at a high level right now.  After starting off on the wrong foot against Southern Illinois and losing Iowa transfer Jake Kelly for the season with a torn ACL, they were been able to turn things around and knock off Creighton (where McKenna used to be an assistant for Dana Altman) and then Drake on the road.  If the Sycamores get wins against Evansville and Bradley this week, look out MVC.  Another family tie for McKenna and Altman is that Altman’s son, Jordan, is the Graduate Assistant at Indiana State this season.

Illinois State (2-1 this week) — The Redbirds were another team flying high after knocking off Wichita State to open conference play with their defense, but then stumbled at Missouri State.  They were able to respond with a nice home victory against Southern Illinois.  A trip to Evansville and then hosting conference leader Northern Iowa is on the slate this week.

ROCKY START

Bradley (1-2 this week) — Bradley broke a three-game losing streak by defeating Drake on the road with Andrew Warren giving the Bulldogs nightmares to start off the conference season, but then suffered two losses against Southern Illinois and Wichita State.  Bradley was also without one of their better players in Taylor Brown against Wichita State on Sunday due to a decision by coach Jim Les.   It doesn’t get any easier for Bradley this week as they have Indiana State and Missouri State waiting in the wings for them.

Creighton (1-2 this week) — Creighton was hoping to start the slate clean after a disappointing non-conference season by getting the first crack at the Northern Iowa Panthers.  But the problems that were plaguing Creighton throughout the season against quality competition hit them again.   Bad free throw shooting and not being able to hold on to leads led to their downfall.  A road trip to Indiana State did not bring any relief either as they lost that one, as well.  This led to a two-hour players-only team meeting.  A salvaged win against Evansville on Sunday might be a start of something.  Some people are a bit too concerned about P’Allen Stinnett’s Facebook status, rather than basketball.  Drake and Wichita State are on the slate this week for the Bluejays.

ALREADY IN TROUBLE

Evansville (0-3 this week) — Evansville has started 0-3, but have been right there the whole way in each of their games, losing by small margins.   One big bright spot for the Purple Aces has been the play of freshman Colt Ryan.  In the game against Creighton on Sunday, he single-handedly kept Evansville in the game with his 26 points on 8-16 from the field and 6-11 from three-point range to go along with five assists.   They could be the spoiler in the conference this season, especially if they get their low post problems solved.  Indiana State and Illinois State probably aren’t looking forward to seeing the Aces this week.

Drake (0-3 this week) — Drake is destined to be the doormat of the league this season, evidenced by losing to Bradley, a second half breakdown against Indiana State at home and then just getting completely dismantled at Wichita State.  They now hit the road to visit Creighton and Southern Illinois, two venues that don’t like to let road teams walk away with victories.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

Conference season is well underway and there are a few great matchups this week.

• 1/6, Wichita St. @ Missouri State (Local TV)—Missouri State is undefeated at home this season. Can Wichita go in to Springfield to get what would look to be a solid win at this point?
• 1/6, Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois (ESPNU)—Both teams are at the top of the Valley right now and this winner gets a leg up in the early MVC race.
• 1/9, Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (ESPN2) —If Northern Iowa gets past SIU earlier in the week, it will be interesting if they can continue the road run. The Panthers already have three big road wins already against the historically tough Valley home venues.
• 1/9, Bradley @ Missouri State (Local TV)—Bradley had high expectations heading into the season, but have some very disappointing performances. The winner here will have a turnaround of sorts, whereas the loser could spiral down quickly.
• 1/9, Creighton @ Wichita State (ESPNU)—Many say that Creighton vs. SIU is the rivalry of the Valley, but I really think that Creighton vs. Wichita State is a bigger rivalry between the fan bases and it has spilled over to the court as well. The first meeting of two within a week of each other.
• 1/10, Evansville @ Indiana State (Fox Sports Net)—If Indiana State wants to consider themselves a contender, they should win this nationally televised game. For Evansville, it is a chance to showcase their phenom, freshman guard Colt Ryan.

Patrick Marshall of White and Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current Records and My Standings (Last Week’s Rank)

1. Missouri St. (9-0) (1)
2. Wichita St. (9-1) (2)
3. Northern Iowa (7-1) (5)
4. Illinois St. (7-1) (3)
5. Southern Illinois (5-2) (8)
6. Bradley (5-3) (4)
7. Indiana St. (6-3) (6)
8. Evansville (4-3) (7)
9. Drake (5-5) (10)
10. Creighton (3-5) (9)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

• Missouri St. wins two more games.  The Bears are continuing to win, much to the chagrin of my pre-season rankings. I thought they would have at least 3 losses by now. Home court advantage was probably a help to their early success, but they also have two wins on the road and are in the middle of a three-game road trip. It would be pretty amazing if they finish the non-conference season undefeated by getting road wins at St. Louis and Arkansas, both very winnable games.
• Creighton loses on the road again.  Creighton is now 0-5 on the road this season and could finish 2009 with a losing record which would be the first time in a long time. This week it was to George Mason as they led most of the game and collapsed in the last few minutes of the game, helped by a technical foul on coach Dana Altman with 18 seconds left in the game with Creighton up by two.  Creighton lost the game, 75-72.
• Shockers looking pretty good.  Other than the loss to Pittsburgh in the CBE Classic, Wichita State  is playing some good basketball lately and have gained a lot of confidence with a couple road wins at UMKC and Cleveland State as well as some guarantee games at Koch Arena.  They will be a force come conference play.
• UNI sweeps Iowa teams.  For the first time since 2006-07 season, UNI beat both Iowa and Iowa St. in the annual matchup between the Iowa schools. The Panthers are on a roll as of late and creating quite the resume’ with wins over Iowa, Iowa St., Boston College, and Siena.

TEAMS DOING WELL

Missouri State (2-0 this week).  Missouri St. has to be taken seriously at this point. They are undefeated and have winnable games to finish the non-conference season. Kyle Weems and Adam Leonard continue to team up to lead the Bears. Arkansas St. gave them their biggest test this past week and they overcame the adversity.  They will have another road test against St. Louis this week.

Wichita St (2-0 this week).  The Shockers have been winning games, but a lot of them lately haven’t been very close.  A couple of closer games might not be bad for this team, to see how they’d react.  TCU was supposed to be a bit of a test and it was an interesting game that had three technical fouls against TCU and a warning to the crowd to cool down.  This week Wichita St. hosts Texas Tech for their next test.

Northern Iowa (2-0 this week).  With the way UNI disposed of Siena Saturday night, it is time for people to lose the notion that Northern Iowa won’t be tough this season. All five starters finished in double figures; UNI is poised to make a splash and others will have to take notice.  The Northern Iowa players are starting to talk about how they want to be the impact team in this year’s NCAA Tournament.  They have an interesting matchup this week as the Panthers take a trip to North Dakota.

Southern Illinois (2-0 this week).  Southern Illinois turned their road woes around this week with a victory at Southeast Missouri State.  Unfortunately, they will be without JUCO transfer Jack Crowder for two weeks after strained his right shoulder.  Everyone expected Tony Freeman to make an impact for the Salukis and he is doing just that as he is on a torrid shooting pace right now.  In the two games this week, he shot 14-22 from the floor and 10-17 from three-point range.  Southern Illinois is flying under the radar right now, so look out for them.  This weekend they head to Las Vegas to play San Diego and San Francisco.

Drake (2-0 this week).  Josh Young has been working his way back from a hip pointer injury and he and the other seniors on this team decided to carry the Bulldogs on their shoulders this weekend as they won their Hyvee Classic tourney.  Drake hits the road to in-state rival Iowa this week and anything can happen in that one.

TEAMS WITH WORK TO DO

Bradley (0-1 this week).  Bradley not only lost this week, but also lost one of their assistant coaches. Steve Merfeld left the team unexpectedly this week amid some weird circumstances. It is interesting that you would ask one of your assistants to leave the team in the middle of the season. It must have affected the team enough that they lost to Western Carolina soon after. This week Bradley tries to rebound with games against Loyola-Chicago and Iowa State.

Creighton (0-1 this week).  There must be something in the air with referees doing Missouri Valley Conference games this week (in reference to the Wichita St. game mentioned above) as Creighton lost in the final minutes against George Mason. During the breakdown, Coach Dana Altman was called for a technical foul with only 18 seconds remaining in the game and the Bluejays were up 2 points. They ended up losing by three and head back to Omaha now 0-5 on the road this season.

Evansville (0-1 this week).  Evansville started off strong but lost a winnable game against Western Kentucky this week, 63-57, but out of it is the continued emergence of freshman Colt Ryan as a leader for the Purple Aces as he finished with a career high 23 points. Georgia Southern and Tennessee-Martin come into Roberts Stadium this week.

Illinois St. (1-1 this week).  Niagara exposed the Redbirds weakness that Osiris Eldridge is the one-man show for the Redbirds this season as he went 5-of-18 from the field and 2-of-11 from three, and they beat the Redbirds, 76-68. Even though Illinois St. outrebounded them 49-28, it wasn’t enough. Going into the Sunday’s game Dinma Odiakosa was second in the nation in field goal percentage.  They now have to regroup for a two-game road trip at Ohio and Utah this week.

Indiana State (1-1 this week).  Indiana State lost to Ball State this week, but rebounded to beat Oral Roberts. With all the newcomers Kevin McKenna has brought to this team this season, two players that played significant minutes last season, Jordan Printy and Aaron Carter, have had their minutes go down significantly this season.  Indiana St. hits the road to Toledo this week.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

The Valley has another week to get into the spotlight:

• 12/19—Drake @ Iowa (Big 10 Network)—With the struggles both teams have had this season, it should be an interesting game.
• 12/19—Illinois St. @ Utah (The Mtn.)—Illinois St. gets its first quality opponent in this game. It could establish more credibility for this team.
• 12/19—Missouri St. @ St. Louis (Local TV in both markets)—Missouri St. tries to stay undefeated as they are on a three game road trip.
• 12/19—Creighton @ New Mexico (The Mtn.)—Creighton has another road game with a quality opponent. This time, it is against undefeated New Mexico as one of the final games of the MVC/MWC Challenge heats things up.
• 12/19—Texas Tech @ Wichita St. (Local TV in Kansas)—A chance for the Shockers to get a quality win against the Big 12.
• 12/20—Bradley @ Iowa St. (ESPN FC)—Iowa St. took two tours already with the MVC in the annual matchups with Drake and UNI, but now Bradley gets in on the action.

Our first game on Saturday afternoon will feature two of the very best mid-major programs on an annual basis in college basketball.  Dayton and Creighton combined for ten NCAA appearances in the 2000s, and both schools are poised to be in contention for their respective conference crowns again in 2009-10.  And how about some kudos to both of these teams for scheduling a game either could easily lose as the first game of the year — it takes stones to put your RPI on the line so early in the season, so both Brian Gregory and Dana Altman should be commended for this matchup. 

Dayton appears to have the early advantage by virtue of playing at home and their high-flying junior forward, Chris Wright, but we shouldn’t forget that the Flyers got utterly shellacked last year at Creighton to the tune of 77-59.  It was UD’s worst loss of the season, but given just how well the Flyers play at home (20 in a row by our count), it’s safe to say that Dayton players will come into Saturday’s game with more confidence.  It will fall on the capable shoulders of Creighton’s P’Allen Stinnett to calm his team down and make the plays needed for the Bluejays. 

Gary Parrish believes that this is the best game of the weekend, and we have to agree.  Join us Saturday afternoon for what should be a great battle.

I originally wanted this to be a post for the entire weekend, but after looking at the schedule for the weekend I realized that the only games worth watching were on Saturday so I had to make a slight revision and consequently this will be a Saturday only post. The way I look at it is to view Sunday as a day off to rest up (maybe get a little bit ahead on either school work or “real world” work so you can do absolutely nothing next week) for the first set of big games, which will be start on Monday. Unfortunately as you will soon see even Saturday might be a bust unless you live in about a 200-mile radius near the Indiana or Ohio border. Fortunately, your fearless editors have come through with RTC Live coverage at 2 out of 3 sites with the third site being less enlightened about new media.

Creighton at #22 Dayton at 1 PM on WHIO-TV: Yeah. That’s right. Only on local television, but like I said we will be there with RTC Live coverage. This will be the first game for both teams so both teams will be hyped up for this game even though the Flyers come in with significantly higher expectation not that the Bluejays are slouches.  After being snubbed by the NCAA Selection Committee two years ago, the Flyers now have a target on their back after knocking off West Virginia in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Brian Gregory’s team is led by Chris Wright, everyone’s preseason A-10 POY (everyone also conveniently forgets that Wright wasn’t even 1st team A-10 last year), but if the Flyers are to live up to their preseason ranking they will need other players to step-up. If we were to pick out two players to fit that description would be London Warren, who picked apart West Virginia with 9 assists and only 1 turnover, and Marcus Johnson, a sophmore swingman who put up solid if unspectacular numbers (6.3 PPG and 5.2 RPG) last year, but has been pegged by Gregory as a breakout star this year. On the other sideline, Dana Altman will be hoping that P’Allen Stinnett can fill the void left by Booker Woodfox, last year’s Missouri Valley Conference POY and need center Kenny Lawson (8.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and conference-leading 1.6 BPG last year) to dominate the Flyers on the inside. If the Bluejays can get big performances out of those two and some big shots by Kaleb Korver (yes, he is Kyle’s brother and he can shoot–45% from beyond the arc last year).  However, the Bluejays’ biggest advantage might be that the Flyers could be looking ahead to their next opponent–#20 Georgia Tech and its hyped freshman Derrick Favors in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Davidson at #10 Butler at 2 PM on WHMB-40: Yeah. Local television again, but once again we have come through for you with yet another RTC Live from historic Hinkle Fieldhouse (the site of Milan’s famous 1954 win over Muncie and where they filmed Hoosiers–anybo are dy got the odds that Bill Simmons has ever travelled there since he references the movie so often?). Of course, we have a funny feeling that if Stephen Curry were still in a Wildcat uniform ESPN might have found a way to get them on one of their networks. Instead this game will give us a look at Butler, everyone’s top mid-major team and one of the highest ranked mid-majors that I can remember in recent years. Butler coach Brad Stevens managed to lead the Bulldogs to 26-6 record last year despite starting three freshmen in every game, a remarkable feat for the 2nd year coach who has more wins (56) in his first two years than any coach in D1 history other than Bill Guthridge (58). This year, Stevens will have significantly higher expectations for his Bulldogs who are led by sophomore Gordon Hayward (13.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 1.5 SPG) and junior Matt Howard (14.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.7 SPG). On the other side of the ball, Davidson coach Bob McKillop will have his hands full trying to manage an inexperienced and Curry-less group in a hostile environment. In addition to losing Curry and his nation-leading 28.6 PPG, the Wildcats also lost Andrew Lovedale (a solid inside presence who provided both points and rebounds) and Max Paulhus-Gosselin (an excellent defender who to the best of my knowledge is not related to Jon, Kate, or any of the 8). This year, McKillop will be relying on Will Archambault (8.3 PPG and 4.3 RPG), Bryant Barr (7.1 PPG and 2.0 RPG), and Stephen Rossiter (6.1 PPG and 5.9 RPG). Unfortunately, the Wildcats strength is on the inside where Hayward and Howard will be dominating. The Bulldogs relative weakness is on the outside where Curry could have done some major damage, but he’s hanging out with Nellie now so expect the Bulldogs to be out to send a message to the rest of the nation that they deserving of this extremely high ranking.

Mount St. Mary’s at #16 Oklahoma at 2 PM on ???: This is ridiculous. I can’t find this game on any TV listing and we won’t be there thanks to Big 12 policy against new media  so we will just assume that Jeff Capel will hire one of those courthouse artists to let the rest of us know what the action was like.  There are only really two reasons to watch this game if you happen to be in Norman, Oklahoma (since you can’t see it anywhere else–seriously Oklahoma’s site doesn’t even list a local TV station carrying the game): to see how the Sooners adapt to life without Blake Griffin and to see how Willie Warren plays as the main option for the Sooners playing against the Mountaineers’ backcourt of Jeremy Goode (15.9 PPG and 3.1 RPG), Kelly Beidler (12.1 PPG and 6.5 RPG), and Jean Cajou (13.6 PPG and 3.4 RPG). We expect the Sooners to be ok, but don’t be surprised to see them struggle a bit in the early going. They shouldn’t have a problem with the Mountaineers, but if Milan Brown’s backcourt gets hot from beyond the arc we could have an interesting game that nobody outside of the arena will see.

Patrick Marshall of White and Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Creighton (24-6, 14-4)
2. Northern Iowa (23-6, 13-5)
3. Wichita St. (23-8, 12-6)
4. Southern Illinois (21-8, 12-6)
5. Illinois St. (23-7, 11-7)
6. Bradley (19-10, 10-8)
7. Indiana St. (17-13, 8-10)
8. Drake (13-18, 5-13)
9. Evansville (10-19, 3-15)
10. Missouri St. (9-21, 2-16) 

All-Conference Team.  This is a guard laden league which will populate the Missouri Valley All-Conference team this season.

• Kevin Dillard (G), So., Southern Illinois ( 12.2 pts., 4.2 ast.)—The bright spot for Southern Illinois last season is a tenacious ball handler and defender.
• Clevin Hannah (G), Sr., Wichita St. (11.2 pts. 4.3 ast.)—Hannah comes in as the leader for the Shockers which will make some noise this season.
• Osiris Eldridge (G), Sr., Illinois St. (14 pts, 6 reb.)–Last season he had Champ Oguchi as a security blanket and kept him from trying to take over the game himself.  His all around game development will probably garner him Conference Player of the Year honors.    
• Justin Carter (G), Sr., Creighton  (8.1 pts, 5.5 reb.)—Over the summer, Carter has emerged as the leader of the Bluejays.
• Adam Koch (F), Sr., Northern Iowa (12.1 pts., 5.1 reb.)—Koch was a solid player last season to help lead the Panthers to the conference championship and will get the opportunity again as the team returns pretty much everyone.

6th Man.  Jake Kelly (G), Jr., Indiana St. (Transfer from Iowa)—Jake got a surprise this fall as the NCAA allowed him to be an active player on the Sycamore team instead of having to sit out a year like transfers usually must.  Due to the death of his mother, Kelly returned home to Indiana last season and announced he was transferring to Indiana St.  Getting immediate eligibility will solidify the backcourt for the Sycamores.

Impact Newcomer.  Wayne Runnels (F), Jr., Creighton—Wayne was an all around sports star in high school and could have probably played any sport he wanted to.  He decided on basketball.  The JC transfer will make an immediate impact for the Bluejays. 

What You Need to Know.  For several years, the Missouri Valley Conference was a multiple bid conference for the NCAA Tournament, but the runs by Wichita St. and Bradley to the Sweet 16 in 2006 seem like a distant memory.  The past two seasons, the MVC has only managed to get their one automatic bid into The Dance.  Drake went in 2008 and Northern Iowa went last season.  Both teams won the regular season title and conference tournament.   Although Creighton shared the regular season championship with the Panthers last season, the Bluejays were on the outside looking in for the 2^nd straight year while Southern Illinois had their first losing season in 10 years.  Considering the unexpected the last two seasons, things may be returning back to the norm this winter.  Casual fans of the conference may see familiar names at the top this season as Creighton, Southern Illinois and Wichita St. will be in the mix, while last season’s champion  Northern Iowa returns almost everyone to a team that surprised everyone by the time conference play rolled around.   Illinois State has risen toward the top the past couple of seasons and although they again have Player of the Year candidate Osiris Eldridge in the lineup, the supporting cast may not be enough this season to keep them there. 

Predicted Champion.  Creighton Bluejays (NCAA Seed:  #9)—There are so many teams that believe they will be the best this season, but Creighton will slip to the top.  Creighton worked it’s way back up to the top of the league down the stretch last season winning 11 of the last 12 regular season games before getting embarrassed by Illinois St. in the MVC Conference Tournament semifinals.   Yes, Creighton lost MVC POY Booker Woodfox.  Yes, Creighton lost four year starting PG Josh Dotzler.  Yes, emerging big man Kenton Walker transferred.  Those are definitely big holes to fill.  But the returning core includes senior Justin Carter who was a JUCO transfer a year ago and by the second half of the season became comfortable and dominated the boards.  He has appeared to take a leadership role over the summer.  P’Allen Stinnett is fun to watch and it will be important to see if he has matured enough to also be a leader.   Antoine Young emerged as the guy to lead the point for the Bluejays, but watch out for Andrew Bock to settle in as the Dotzler type of point guard Coach Dana Altman is used to and  to utilize Young’s skills in his ability to drive to the basket at the off guard spot.  The question mark is the inside game where Kenny Lawson is the only real veteran returning to the post position.  Chad Millard is a little out of position in the post, but is the next  tallest player on the team.  Wayne Runnels comes in from the JUCO ranks and is expected to make an impact right away to help a team that ranked last in the Valley last season in rebound margin.  A couple other players on the roster are expected to step up on a team that likes to rotate players constantly leaving the opening for others to make plays.  Creighton also has the potential to have the best non-conference schedule in the league which will give them a little more wiggle room whether they win the conference or not.

Top Contenders:

• Northern Iowa  (NCAA Seed: #12)—Now you may be asking why I would take the defending conference champ and not by default make them the favorite in the league this season.  Well, I think there may be some deception in how strong this team is by staying the same while other teams have made changes.  In reality, the Panthers had three separate seasons last year.  They started out slow at 6-5 and then once they got into conference play went 11-1 before ending the regular season 3-4 while looking less than impressive at the MVC Tournament.  This team will have cohesiveness as they do return all five starters.  Kwadzo Ahelegbe, Johnny Moran and Ali Farokhmanesh created a 3-guard combination that was hard to matchup with while Adam Koch and Jordan Eglseder controlled the post.  However, when you are the hunted, things change.  While UNI may have surprised people last season, everyone they play, especially in the conference, will not take them lightly this year.    In the end, though, they will be solid enough to help break the Valley’s streak as a one-bid conference.
• Wichita St.  (NIT)—Two seasons ago, there were a lot of questions where this Shocker team was headed when then Winthrop coach Gregg Marshall came in after Mark Turgeon skipped town to coach at Texas A&M. Last season with several new players in the mix and after starting 0-6 in the league, the light bulb turned on and WSU came literally one-tenth of a second from  making a dramatic comeback in the MVC Tournament which could have sparked them to win the whole thing.   This second-half of the season surge brought them to the postseason in the form of the CBI.  With a majority of the team returning this season behind Senior Clevin Hannah, the Shockers are ready to shock people again.  Toure Murry and JT Durley will be a couple of other impact players who will keep Wichita State in the mix this season.  Some of their depth still needs to be developed which will keep them from taking the title this season, but look out in 2010-11.
• Southern Illinois (NIT)—The fans in Carbondale will get restless if the Salukis struggle this season like they did last year.  They had their first losing season  in 10 years, thus missing the postseason.  The infirmary and transfer bug took this team down to eight healthy players by the end of the year, including point guard Bryan Mullins.  However, the injury was an opportunity for Kevin Dillard to break out last season and become the MVC Freshman of the Year.  With a year  under his belt and Iowa transfer Tony Freeman in the backcourt, SIU’s guard play was looking solid.  However, with the recent dismissal of guard Ryan Hare, who was also expected to be a big contributor, the Salukis are just hoping to have a winning season  and get back to the postseason.  It will probably be a year or two before SIU has the personnel they need to compete for the league title again. 
• Illinois St. (NIT)—You would probably be surprised to see Illinois St. this far down when they have the potential player of the year  and NBA prospect Osiris Eldridge on board.  But with eight newcomers for the Redbirds, the loss of expected contributor Bobby Hill for yet another season, and no Champ Oguchi to help Eldridge, you are probably going to see him focus on trying to get to the next level and play more for his NBA future than for winning the league.  With the projected worst rated non-conference schedule for the second season in a row (they even scheduled worse this season than last), they will have very few chances to make mistakes and falter in league play.
• Bradley (CBI/CIS)—Many Bradley fans don’t seem to believe this, but I think Jim Les is squarely on the hot seat this season.  Although they have had four straight trips to the postseason, they have been less prestigious each year (NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIS).  Though they have been getting highly rated recruiting classes since the Sweet 16 run four seasons ago, that talent hasn’t turned into increased wins and even this season the Braves are projected at no better than sixth place.  I had Bradley higher last season and they thoroughly disappointed.  With what they had coming back and with Jim Les being the most veteran coach in the league behind Dana Altman, I think expectations should be (and are) higher for Bradley and their fans. 
• Indiana St. (CBI/CIS)—Indiana St. is squarely a wild card this season.  The addition of Jake Kelly will be a huge help to them along with returning point guard Harry Marshall and guard Rashad Reed.   This team also returns almost everyone from last season.  They could surprise some people and a strong showing in the Preseason NIT may turn the Sycamores into the Drake or UNI for this season.  Don’t be surprised if they finish higher in the league than expected.  

Others.

• Drake—After their run two seasons ago, reality has come back to Des Moines.  The transfer of Josh Parker to Dayton and the graduation of a couple more of their impact players from 2007 doesn’t help them either.
• Missouri St—This team is still in the rebuilding process. Cuonzo Martin has some good things going after cleaning up after Barry Hinson, but are still a good distance away from being a contender.   
• Evansville—Marty Simmons has to pick up the pieces as they lost almost all of their scoring from last season.  They have to start over after losing three seniors and the transfer of solid freshman Kaylon Williams. 

Top 10 RPI Boosters.

• Nov. 13, 2009.  Bradley @ BYU (MVC-MWC Challenge, 8:30 PM, The Mtn.)—The Mountain West and Missouri Valley kick off the season with the first of nine games in the MVC-MWC Challenge series.  This will be a key early test for the Braves on the road.
• Nov. 14, 2009.  Creighton @ Dayton (Noon, Local TV)—Dayton is projected to contend for the Atlantic-10 title this season and continues a nice series between these two teams.  Both teams use their full rosters and rotate players in and out which means it could be quite the up and down game.
• Nov. 16, 2009.  Indiana St. @ LSU (Preseason NIT, 7PM)—Indiana St gets several opportunities to get some nice wins being a part of the Preseason NIT but have to start things off with LSU on their home court.  Not an easy task, but if they can somehow win this game and continue in the bracket then Duke, UConn and Arizona St. could be on the menu and the Sycamores move up on my preseason predictions quite fast.
• Nov. 21, 2009.  Southern Illinois @ UNLV (MVC-MWC Challenge, 9PM)—Another of the Challenge games taking place.  The Salukis are trying to get back some of the mojo they lost last season and UNLV will continue to try and show that they are back in the national mix. 
• Nov. 23, 2009.  Wichita St. vs. Pitt, (6:30PM, ESPN2)—The Shockers get the opportunity to play a top 10 program in what could be considered Wichita’s backyard in Kansas City as a part of the CBE Classic.  A win could also provide a matchup with Texas the next evening.   Rush the Court will be there to cover the CBE Classic.
• Nov. 26-29, 2009.  Creighton @ Old Spice Classic  in Orlando (ESPN Family of Networks)—The Old Spice Classic in a matter of a few years in existence has become one of the more star studded multi-team events.  Creighton gets a first round matchup against a hyped up Michigan team, takes on one of its Jesuit brethren Marquette or Xavier in the second round and then for their last game could have Alabama, Florida St., Baylor or Iona.  A strong performance here will give a boost to this team.
• Nov. 27, 2009.  Bradley vs. Oklahoma St., (Las Vegas Invitational, 7PM)—A nice neutral court matchup against a Cowboy team expected to finish in the top half of the Big 12 this season.  Depending on how this turns out, the Braves will get a matchup against Illinois or Utah the next night.
• Dec. 12, 2009.  Northern Iowa vs. Siena (7PM, Local TV)—The return game of last season’s Bracketbuster matchup, UNI looks to return the favor on their home court against Siena.
• Dec. 19, 2009.  Illinois St. @ Utah (MVC-MWC Challenge, 5PM, The Mtn.)—Illinois St. has the worst non-conference schedule in the Valley this season so the MVC-MWC Challenge is a welcome challenge for the Redbirds.  This is their one chance to show if this team is capable of repeating their strong performance the past couple of seasons heading into conference play.
• Jan. 25, 2010.  Southern Illinois vs. Western Kentucky (7PM)—Both of these teams have grown their reputation over the years.  Kind of an odd out of conference matchup smack dab in the middle of conference season for both teams. 

Key Conference Games.

• Dec. 29, 2009.  Northern Iowa @ Creighton (7PM, Local TV)—Both teams that finished on top of the conference last season open conference play as the MVC race begins.
• Dec. 29, 2009.  Indiana St. @ Southern Illinois (7PM)—If Indiana St. feels like they want to be a contender this season, opening at SIU’s arena and trying to leave with a win will be tough.  The Salukis will be trying to regain their foothold in the conference and rise back to the top after an off year.
• Jan. 9, 2010.  Creighton @ Wichita St. (1PM, ESPNU)—This has the makings for a barnburner as these two teams do not have any love for each other.  Shocker fans love to have special “Blackout” or other nights against Creighton.  It is even a possibility that this game doesn’t get played at Koch Arena, but at the brand new Intrust Bank Arena in downtown Wichita.
• Jan. 9, 2010.  Northern Iowa @ Illinois St.(3PM, ESPN2)—The Panthers and the Redbirds had a battle the last time they played in the MVC Tournament Championship game that went to overtime.  Illinois St. feels they have something to prove and have the opportunity against the reigning conference champs.
• Jan. 13, 2010.  Southern Illinois @ Creighton (8PM, Fox Sports Net)—This has always been a rivalry and will continue to be as both of these teams have been the talk of the conference for several years.
• Jan. 30, 2010.  Bradley @ Illinois St. (4:30PM, Fox Sports Net)—Speaking of rivalries, these two teams are all over each other and kick off their home-home matchups of the season within a two week period. 
• Feb. 27, 2010.  Southern Illinois @ Wichita St. (TBA)—This matchup occurs on the final weekend of the season and both of these teams feel they are going to be at the top of the conference this season.  Will they be fighting for a conference championship? 

Digging Deeper.  Out of 25 potential games for the Valley against BCS Conference competition (and, really, only 19 can take place because of the brackets at the multi-team events), only five are being played on Valley home courts this season — Nebraska at Creighton, Iowa State at Drake, Auburn at Missouri State, Texas Tech at Wichita State, and Iowa at Northern Iowa. Three of the five are standard rivalry games that occur every year at one place or the other. The fact is that there are not many BCSers coming to MVC facilities.  With Evansville, Illinois St. and Southern Illinois not playing a BCS team this season, it is imperative that they win all of their out of conference games heading into conference play while the teams playing BCS teams need to make a good showing (something lacking the past two seasons).   Many expect SIU and Illinois State to be in the top half of the MVC this year, but they might have to nearly run the table in conference play and avoid an early stumble in Arch Madness to have a shot at an at-large bid.

Fun With KenPom.  The point about weak non-conference scheduling is well-taken and one that Pomeroy shows in his 2008-09 statistics.  Of the ten MVC teams, six of them had a nonconf SOS rating in the 200s.  Three others were in the 100s, and only two (N0rthern Iowa and SIU) rated in the top 100.  Whether it is an insistence that BCS schools play home & homes or another reason, it is clear that the MVC schools need to improve their scheduling in order to earn the respect they crave.  A good start is playing in the multi-team events mentioned above, for they offer three nonconference games against (usually) good competition early in the season.  It will be interesting to see how that will play out in this year’s Pomeroy strength of schedule numbers. 

NCAA Tournament History.  The MVC is 84-93 (.475) all-time in the NCAA Tournament, which represents a long and storied history of teams making and succeeding in the Big Dance.  It simply isn’t a one-bid conference, proving just how much of an aberration the last two years have been.  Prior to 2008, the last time the MVC sent only one team to the NCAAs was 1997 (Illinois State), and prior to that, the early 90s.  These things come and go in cycles every generation or so, but the Valley definitely needs to find a way to improve its nonconference slate because there’s no doubt that the teams within this league are going to beat up on each other annually in conference play (read: 12-6 doesn’t impress the Cmte). 

Final Thoughts.  The Missouri Valley Conference is a competitive league year in and year out which does not get as much respect nationally as it probably deserves.  After the historic run four seasons ago of two MVC teams into the NCAA Sweet Sixteen, the league had had to build back up its talent base.  With so many of the conference members expecting their teams to be strong this season, oddsmakers will need to be watching carefully to see what impact the league can make.  Performances in the multi-team events such as the Old Spice Classic and the Preseason NIT will be key to assess the strength of the league headed into conference play.  If you have an opportunity to see a game with a Missouri Valley Conference team, I think you will be surprised at how competitive these teams are.  I would also be surprised if the league cannot produce more than one bid to the NCAA Tournament this season.  If they do not get more than one team in, then I think you will see major changes going into 2010-11 including addressing major scheduling issues in the nonconference slate.

To get our readers excited for the endless possibilities of 2009-10, I’ve compiled an extensive list of the top 65 college basketball games of the upcoming season. Any true college hoops fan knows why we selected the number 65. Splitting up this season preview feature into three posts the next three Mondays (November/December, January and February/March), hopefully this list will provide you with the most vital of dates to circle on your calendar. Coaches are realizing more and more the importance of compiling a respectable non-conference slate to boost RPI/SOS numbers and provide their team adequate experience and preparation for the grind of conference play. Let’s lead off with the first batch of potentially memorable meetings during the first two months of the season:

Ed. Note: we are not including projected matchups from the preseason tournaments in these 65 games because those will be analyzed separately.

November 17- Gonzaga at Michigan State (#59 overall)- The featured game in ESPN’s 24-hour hoops marathon pits a backcourt-laden Gonzaga squad in the first of many difficult road tests against a top-five Michigan State team. The State backcourt of Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, Chris Allen and Korie Lucious will be given a true test from the Bulldogs trio of scoring senior Matt Bouldin, deep marksman junior Stephen Gray and emerging sophomore Demetri Goodson.

November 17- Memphis vs. Kansas in St. Louis (#64 overall)- A young and largely inexperienced Memphis team will receive a stiff test right away with the likely #1 team in the nation- Kansas. Guards Doneal Mack and Roburt Sallie must shoot well from deep for the Tigers to stay competitive. Former JUCO standout Will Coleman and burly senior Pierre Henderson-Niles will have their hands full down low with likely All-American Cole Aldrich.

November 19- North Carolina vs. Ohio State in NYC (#39 overall)- November and December means one thing: plenty of electrifying non-conference action at Madison Square Garden. This semifinal matchup could prove the best. Ohio State has their entire team returning besides the underwhelming B.J. Mullens and return defensive stalwart David Lighty from injury. They could definitely surprise the inexperienced Heels, who should have a distinct frontcourt advantage with Dallas Lauderdale sidelined.

December 1- Michigan State at North Carolina (#10 overall)- The Spartans and Heels meet in a rematch of the national title game that once again headlines this year’s ACC/Big Ten challenge. State may be able to avenge those two harsh defeats a year ago by taking advantage of the point guard mismatch. With Ty Lawson no longer around, Kalin Lucas could dominate against Larry Drew or Dexter Strickland. On the flip side, Draymond Green should have his hands full with a loaded UNC frontline.

December 5- North Carolina at Kentucky (#8 overall)- Notice a trend with this list so far? Roy Williams has challenged his team with an extremely difficult non-conference schedule, and this early season matchup in Lexington should be one of the best on the early season. There will be loads of projected lottery picks on the floor in this one, from North Carolina’s Ed Davis to Kentucky’s John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins.

December 6- Villanova vs. Maryland in Washington DC (#35 overall)- Both of these squads are dependent on their backcourt. Two of the best scorers/distributors in the nation will butt heads with Greivis Vasquez of the Terps facing Scottie Reynolds and his Wildcats. The difference could come inside with talented 6’9 freshman Mouphtaou Yarou.

December 6- Kansas at UCLA (#50 overall)- This could be an overwhelming endeavor for a Bruins team that still has plenty to prove. New full-time point guard Jerime Anderson will be thrown into the fire against Sherron Collins of Kansas, arguably the top PG in the nation. UCLA may have to rely on freshmen Tyler Honeycutt (if his back is healthy) and Mike Moser if the sophomores – namely Drew Gordon, Jerime Anderson and J’Mison Morgan - don’t show improvement.

December 8- Georgetown vs. Butler in NYC (#49 overall)- The Hoyas are looking to reclaim their mojo back after last year’s collapse. Their stiffest test in non-conference play should come from Butler, a squad that returns their entire roster from a 26-win season. Matt Howard banging down low with Greg Monroe is definitely one to watch on this grand stage.

December 9 – Kentucky vs. Connecticut in NYC (#17 overall)- Rated by Jeff Goodman as the top non-conference contest this season, Kentucky and Connecticut will clash at Madison Square Garden as part of the SEC/Big East Challenge. The Huskies may have the ammo to stay on the floor with the wildly talented Kentucky squad as Kemba Walker, Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson all return to form Jim Calhoun’s personal Big Three.

December 12- Ohio State at Butler (#41 overall)- Looking for a great one-on-one battle to watch in non-conference play? How about possible Big Ten POY Evan Turner matching up with Butler’s Gordon Hayward? Both of these multi-dimensional wings can score, rebound, dish and lead their respective teams. Hinkle Fieldhouse should be rocking for a visit from the Buckeyes.

December 12- Washington vs. Georgetown in Anaheim (#45 overall)- The big question for Washington this season: who will step up in the frontcourt after Jon Brockman, the Huskies all-time leading rebounder and second leading scorer, graduated to the NBA? Greg Monroe is surely happy Brockman is no longer in Seattle and should be able to take advantage unless Quincy Pondexter or Matthew Bryan-Amaning emerge.

December 19- North Carolina vs. Texas in Arlington (#13 overall)- Our first look at who I consider the #2 team in the nation behind Kansas- the Texas Longhorns. Rick Barnes’ team is absurdly deep at all positions and boasts both talented youth and experience. Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton are top-15 talents and Damion James returns to compliment Dexter Pittman in the post. They should give Carolina their toughest test of a hard non-conference schedule.

December 19- Michigan at Kansas (#38 overall)- It’s hard to not like this Michigan team in a loaded Big Ten. John Beilein’s stellar 1-3-1 zone defense may confuse the Jayhawks while DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris form a tremendous inside-outside punch. Even though the Wolverines could linger near the top of their conference, they’ll have a very difficult time leaving Lawrence with a victory.

December 19- Duke vs. Gonzaga in NYC (#52 overall)- Two of the best outside shooters in the nation will face off in Duke’s Jon Scheyer and Gonzaga’s Stephen Gray. Even if Kyle Singler plays more small than power forward, he should pose a matchup dilemma for a Gonzaga team whose strength lies in the backcourt. We’ve seen the Zags pull off some magic at the Garden before, though.

December 22- Michigan State @ Texas (#6 overall)- The top game of November & December will pit two preseason top-five and possible Final Four teams. Tom Izzo leads his Spartans into a  challenging road test in Austin to face Texas. The keys for the Spartans pulling off a huge road win will be 1) if Raymar Morgan shows up, and 2) if Delvon Roe can neutralize James and Pittman down low with the help of Green and either Tom Herzog or Derrick Nix.

December 22- California @ Kansas (#27 overall)- My preseason Pac-10 favorites travel to Allen Fieldhouse and take on the likely #1-ranked Jayhawks. Mike Montgomery did a remarkable job turning around a bottom-feeder Cal program in one year and returns most of his production including Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson. They could give Kansas a fight.

December 29- Northern Iowa @ Creighton (#56 overall)- The reigning conference champs travel to packed Omaha and face Creighton in the most anticipated MVC game of the season. The Panthers return five players who scored over 8 PPG a season ago including 6’8 forward Adam Koch and 7-footer Jordan Eglseder. The 1-2 punch of Justin Carter and P’Allen Stinnett return for the Bluejays and coach Dana Altman.

December 30- Connecticut @ Cincinnati (#47 overall)- The first conference game featured on this list should prove a difficult road test for Connecticut. Two of the best backcourts in the land face off with Walker and Dyson pitted against Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn. Both of these teams would love to pick up a quality win against an NCAA team to open up Big East play.

Coming next Monday: the top games in the month of January.

The Missouri Valley Conference finished regular season play this last week with Northern Iowa and Creighton sharing the MVC regular season crown.  Due to the complicated tie-breaker formula, Northern Iowa received the 1-seed for the MVC Tournament and Creighton the 2nd.   My preseason predictions weren’t exactly what happened, but like the whole bizarre Valley season usually is, the middle was all muddled up.   No one expected Northern Iowa to be as good as they were in conference play and at the same time, it wasn’t expected to see Southern Illinois take such a nosedive so fast in the past two seasons.

The MVC released their postseason awards on Tuesday with Booker Woodfox from Creighton getting the Larry Bird MVC Player of the Year honors.  Woodfox leads the nation in 3-point shooting at 50.9% and averaged almost 16 points a game.  Champ Oguchi from Illinois St. received the Newcomer of the Year award.  I’m a little surprised that Bryan Mullins won the Defensive Player of the Year honors when he missed almost the whole last half of the conference season.  Maybe it is a lifetime award or something.

This Thursday night starts what is affectionately known as Arch Madness.  I will be down in St. Louis covering things for Rush The Court with a planned RTC Live for at least one game each day starting Friday and other daily updates.  I will also have all-access to the postgame news conferences and other media information.  If you have things you want me to check out or have questions for the coaches or players – but I won’t be the guy that got kicked out of the Creighton game last weekend—then be sure to ask.

Let’s take a look at the matchups starting on Thursday:

Play-In Games:

The Valley’s play-in games on Thursday night match Drake-Indiana St. and Wichita St.-Missouri St.   Indiana St. and Wichita St. are two teams that looked like they were going to fight Missouri St. for the bottom of the league.  However, while Indiana St. started 2-10 and Wichita St. started 0-6 in conference play, both teams have looked a lot different as the regular season came to a close.  Indiana St. won 6 out of their last 7 games and Wichita St. finished 9-4 the rest of the way including a win against Creighton.  With Missouri St. losing 6 out of their last 7 and Drake losing 4 of their last 6 games, it seems to make sense that the Sycamores and Shockers will advance to the Quarterfinals against Northern Iowa and Creighton.

Quarterfinals:

Northern Iowa and Creighton both have the advantage of playing teams that may already be tired from the night before.  That could be a good thing and a bad thing.  The play-in teams had a game the night before and their nerves are out of their system while the top seeds may still have some nerves.  In addition, both the Bluejays and Panthers appear to be going in different directions.  Creighton has won 10 straight games and is sitting right on the cusp of being able to get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament while Northern Iowa has gone 3-4 in their last 7 games heading into Arch Madness.  Creighton struggled at Wichita St. in their last matchup and have revenge on their minds.  Northern Iowa has struggled a bit in both games with Indiana St. losing to them to start the conference season in OT, but then reeled off 11 wins in a row.  However, I see both of the top seeds overcoming the nerves to advance to the semifinals.  Both teams have worked too hard to fall in these matchups.

In the other quarterfinal matchups, Bradley-Southern Illinois is an intriguing matchup only for the fact that many probably didn’t expect Southern Illinois to struggle so much this season.  This game will be our RTC Live game on Friday afternoon.   The Salukis are trying to overcome their youth and loss of team leader Bryan Mullins and go for their only chance left at the postseason–something they haven’t missed in the last 10 years.  Bradley has been up and down all season and I had expected them to be better than they were only because, outside of Dana Altman from Creighton, Jim Les is the coach that has been with a Valley team the longest and thought he had appeared to establish a consistent program.  Injuries have plagued them as well as SIU, so it will be interesting to see who is left standing, but I think the Bradley experience will oust the Saluki youth.

Illinois St. and Evansville boast two players on each squad that, when they are both on fire, they are very tough to stop.  Illinois St. boasts Osiris Eldridge and Champ Oguchi while Evansville counters with Shy Ely and Jason Holsinger.  Eldridge and Oguchi are a 1-2 punch that are not afraid to take shots.   Ely led the league in scoring this season while Holsinger is the active leader in career 3-pointers.    This could turn into a two-man game, but Illinois St. should prevail and in the weird season of the Valley, one other unusual thing will happen….the top 4 seeds advancing to the semis.

Semifinals

Creighton probably hopes it does not have to matchup with Illinois St. in this one since they are 1-4 against the Redbirds in the last 5 meetings.  Playing 3 games in 3 days is a bit of a challenge and depth is a key to winning these types of tournaments.  Creighton has 10 players that average more than 13 minutes a game with only the top end averaging around 26 minutes a game.   Illinois St. on the other hand has only 7 players averaging over 13 minutes a game and other than Dinma Odiakosa (25 MPG), the other starters play over 30 minutes a game.   Depth will be the key in this one and Creighton will win out.

Northern Iowa and Bradley could really be interesting.  Beating a team three times in one season is a really tough thing to do.  Northern Iowa has already beaten Bradley twice.  However, this time, Bradley will have the Panthers’ number.  UNI has had some magic this year, but not the Drake magic and not enough left in the tank to make the finals.  The other thing to note – other than last season when Drake won the MVC tourney as the #1 seed, the last #1 seed to win the league tourney was Illinois St. in 1998.  The top-seeded team has won the tournament 11 out of 32 times, but only 4 times in the 18 years the tourney has been in St. Louis.  Not good numbers for Northern Iowa.

Finals—Creighton vs. Bradley

As mentioned before, it is hard to beat a team 3 times in the same season and I said Northern Iowa cannot do it.  So, why would I say that Creighton can?  Very simple.    St. Louis and the Valley Tournament has sometimes been called the “Creighton Invitational.”  6 out of the last 10 MVC conference tournaments have been won by Creighton.  Dana Altman has a way to get players focused on the three games in three days and the drive to not be one of those teams that has to sit on their hands and hope they get an at-large bid.  Guaranteeing an entry in to the NCAA tournament by winning the conference tourney is the only way in for sure.  Unfortunately, if Creighton wins the tourney, the Valley will probably be another one-bid league for the 2nd year in a row.  If Bradley pulls off the win, the Valley may get 2 teams in.   But I think Creighton has enough going for itself at this point to again come out as the MVC Tournament Champion.

See you in St. Louis and feel free to let us know what you want to know about the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley and Big 12 Conferences.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Creighton  (27-4, 15-3)
2. Southern Illinois  (25-6, 14-4)
3. Bradley  (22-8, 12-6)
4. Illinois St.  (22-8, 10-8)
5. Drake  (21-10, 10-8)
6. Indiana St.  (17-13, 7-11)
7. Wichita St.  (15-15, 6-12)
8. Northern Iowa  (15-15, 6-12)
9. Evansville  (14-15, 6-12)
10. Missouri St.  (13-17, 4-14)

WYN2K.  Last season, Drake was predicted to finish 9th in the league and ended up having a dream season, winning the conference and the conference tournament, only to be knocked out by Western Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA tournament in a thrilling game.  Most coaches from the Missouri Valley after a successful season jump ship and embrace the hype of their ability to move up into the major conferences – Steve Alford (Iowa at the time), Bruce Weber (Illinois), Matt Painter (Purdue), Greg McDermott (Iowa St.), Mark Turgeon (Texas A&M) and now Drake’s head man, Keno Davis.  Davis jumped at the Providence job 26 days after taking Drake to its first NCAA Tournament in many, many years.  The question that needs to be asked is whether Drake was that good or if the Valley was down last year.  It was probably a combination of both.   In the past, the Missouri Valley Conference has had multiple teams make the NCAA Tournament and the known teams in the conference will be making their return.  Creighton has been in the postseason (NCAA or NIT) a conference-record eleven straight seasons and Southern Illinois last year broke their six-year streak of getting into the NCAA Tournament.  Creighton has a ton of experience coming back whereas Southern Illinois is going back to their roots of tough defense and a solid floor general.  Drake will not reach the same level as  last year  as they have their third different head coach in as many years.  If Drake didn’t have the year they did last year, the story of the Valley would have been Illinois St.  First year coach Tim Jankovich (who was an assistant at  Kansas) was able to take advantage of the recruits of former coach Porter Moser and led this team to an unbelievable season themselves, but got destroyed on national TV in the Missouri Valley Tournament Championship game by Drake (79-49) and that was probably what kept them from being considered for the Big Dance.  Valley Preseason  Player of the Year Osiris Eldridge will be back to try to lead the Redbirds to another successful season.  After getting to the finals of the inaugural CBI postseason tournament, Bradley  is a tested team with experience that will make some noise this year.  Former Creighton assistant and second-year head coach Kevin McKenna has started to turn the Indiana St. team around and will show improvement.   Gregg Marshall is still trying to have the same success with Wichita St. that he had at Winhrop, but still has a lot of work to do.  Northern Iowa gets out of the gate a ltitle behind with several injured players, one suspended for the first three games and one waiting until semester’s end to become eligible. MVC cheerleader and resident little man Barry Hinson is out at Missouri St. and did not leave a lot behind.  Evansville is Evansville, although they have the advantage of returning all five starters from last season.  

Predicted Champion.  Creighton (NCAA #9).  Creighton is the obvious choice as they have eight players returning that played 12 or more minutes a game.  They also led the nation in bench scoring last year and there is enough talent on this team that the two players leading the nation in scoring off the bench without receiving a start (Booker Woodfox and Cavel Witter) may still not start this season.  P’Allen Stinnett is the Jays’ POY candidate that can amaze and wow people with his athleticism, but will need to be a leader this season and play with emotion like he is known for (keeping it contained to keep from bugging officials and unnecessary fouls).  Justin Carter comes in from the JUCO ranks as a scorer who may be able to step into the starting lineup sooner rather than later.  The frontcourt may be a little suspect since they only have three players over 6’8 but it appears they have been to the weight room and if they make the impact as expected, they will solidify this team.  Coach Dana Altman plans to have the high-pressure full-court defense back in motion this year to create turnovers.  The veteran coach, the returning player experience and the ability to play high-pressure defense is what will cause Creighton to rise to the top.  Also having eleven straight 20+ wins in a season is a streak that this team will not want to break.  This team should be able to get to the NCAA Tournament and win a couple of games to continue to build this program.  Here’s POY candidate P’Allen Stinnett rising up for a dunk.

NCAA/NIT Teams. 

• Southern Illinois (NCAA #13). SIU had a high-profile non-conference schedule last season due to recent success, but came up short in justifying their hype.  Fortunately, the Salukis still have a high-profile non-conference schedule, but at the expense of playing marquee home games and instead going on the road to try to regain their notoriety.  They have the opportunity to be the featured team with the likes of Duke, Michigan and UCLA by being a part of the 2K Sports College Hoops Classic if they win their home regional and advance to New York.  They are also part of the John Wooden Tradition game against St. Mary’s.  So the opportunities are there to be back in the spotlight for the Valley.  SIU will be led by senior point guard Bryan Mullins who was the Valley Defensive Player of the year and a solid leader.  The supporting cast is hyped as SIU’s best recruiting class ever and they had the opportunity to go to Canada over Labor Day to get familiar and some early playing time.  However a little blow came after the Canada trip when 3-point specialist Joshua Bone (at least he has seemed like that every time I have watched him) had a tough trip and decided to leave the team once they returned. That is one less player with experience.  So there will be a bit of a learning curve this season for Southern Illinois, but their tradition and fan base will keep them in contention and they should have enough to make it back to the NCAAs after settling for the NIT last season. 
• Bradley (NIT).  People reading this who are knowledgeable of the Valley probably think I am crazy for having Bradley ranked so high compared to their own views and what other publications have written.  However, it was three short seasons ago that Bradley was in the Sweet 16.  Like it or not Jim Les has developed quite a program with Bradley.  Last season because of injuries, suspensions and other various reasons, the actual starting lineup that was expected to be on the floor didn’t occur very much, but last year’s team was a solid team. Being able to be a part of the initial CBI basketball tournament gave them the chance to play longer than most Valley teams and an opportunity to improve in areas for this season.  With the trio of point guard Sam Maniscalco, guard Andrew Warren and forward Theron Wilson provide a good starting group of players that if the newcomers gel could make some noise.  However, Bradley probably does not have enough firepower to win the Valley this season,  and are otherwise borderline in making the NCAA tournament so they probably will be in the NIT.
• Illinois St. (NIT).  The Illinois St. defense was a stalwart last season as they were 11th nationally in points allowed per game (59.3).  Osiris Aldridge will be looked upon to continue his conference leading scoring along with the additions of transfers Champ Oguchi (Oregon) and Landon Shipley (Austin Peay).  The Redbirds’ frontcourt will be decimated to start the year as forwards Brandon Sampay and Bobby Hill are expected to be out until January due to injuries.  So this team will just be starting to gel under a cupcake non-conference schedule and these players will be coming back once conference season starts.  It may take a while for this team then to adjust to the higher level of play and integrating these players back into the lineup which will keep Illinois St. from returning to the Big Dance this season.  The non-conference slate that has an RPI average of 215 is well below standards of the Valley and will not jump onto anyone’s page as an at-large team for the NCAA Tournament.  Unless they win the conference tournament, it is the NIT for them.
• Drake (NIT).  Mark Phelps takes over the Bulldogs and has now been tasked with high expectations after last year’s remarkable season.  Gone is the point guard, Adam Emmenecker, who really made things gel for Drake last season.  However they return “Bucky” Cox who likes to shoot threes more than play inside and All-MVC pick Josh Young at guard.  Keno Davis did not go too deep into his bench last season so a lot of players come in inexperienced.  Also, Davis did not really talk to players extensively and sort of let the players play their game.  On the other hand, new coach Phelps is more of  a talker, telling the team the things they need to do that may take some adjustment.  Both the coach and the team like the 3-ball so that will help the team stay on a common ground, but the moving back of the 3-point line will affect them if they live and die by the three.  The Bulldogs are the hunted and not the hunters this season and will suffer through a year of transition and will probably settle for the NIT this season.  In the meantime, Drake fans will still have this to remember… 

Others. 

• Indiana St.  This team took a hit when its leading returning scorer Marico Stinson unexpectedly left the team and the university, but is on an upswing with a solid coach.  Look for them to make some noise next season.
• Wichita St.  Only one returning starter and several new players will still try to find an identity while Gregg Marshall tries to look like he is not mad at the world.
• Northern Iowa.  UNI gets out of the gate a little slowly with injuries and players missing from the team that won’t be able to play right away.  With coach Ben Jacobsen on the hot seat, he cannot afford to have another mediocre season after what Greg McDermott did with the team before Jacobsen’s tenure.  It may show the recruiting or coaching ability is not there. 
• Evansville.  This team is still rebuilding as half the team is still freshman and sophomores though they have an advantage of returning all five starters.  However, they will need  a lot of help inside and that is not there yet. 
• Missouri St.  The most exciting thing Missouri St. fans have to look forward to is the new $67M JQH Arena.

RPI Boosters / Key Games.

The key to this conference getting multiple bids is to have success against BCS and high mid-major teams.  Unfortunately, home games for the Valley teams are far and few between.

• Missouri St. @ Auburn  (11.14.08)
• Bradley @ Florida (CBE Classic)  (11.16.08)
• Southern Illinois @ 2K Sports College Classic vs. Duke and Michigan/UCLA, but of course have to get out of their regional to get to New York.  (11.20-21.08)
• Missouri St. vs. Arkansas  (11.22.08)
• Wichita St. @ Old Spice classic vs. Georgetown and Maryland, Michigan St., or Gonzaga.   (11.27-30.08)
• Northern Iowa vs. Marquette (Chicago Invitational)  (11.28.08)
• Northern Iowa vs. Auburn (Chicago Invitational)  (11.29.08)
• Indiana St. @ Depaul  (11.29.08)
• Drake vs. Vanderbilt (Cancun Tourney)  (11.29.08)
• Wichita St. @ Texas Tech  (12.03.08)
• Creighton @ St. Josephs  (12.06.08)
• Indiana St @ Louisville  (12.06.08)
• Bradley @ Michigan St.  (12.07.08)
• Creighton vs. Dayton  (12.10.08)
• Indiana St. @ Purdue  (12.13.08)
• Evansville @ North Carolina  (12.18.08)
• Southern Illinois v. St. Mary’s  (12.20.08)  (Wooden Tradition)
• Creighton vs. Depaul (in Vegas possibly)  (12.23.08)

Drake and Northern Iowa also benefit from a state law requiring Iowa and Iowa St. to play both Valley teams each year which adds and extra large conference school to their schedule. (ed. note: apparently this is a myth… thanks, readers)

Then you have the key conference games that will decide the conference champ.

• Creighton vs. Southern Illinois (01.14.09)
• Bradley vs. Illinois St.  (01.29.09)
• Southern Illinois vs. Creighton  (02.14.09)
• Drake vs. Southern Illinois (02.25.09)
• Creighton vs. Illinois St.  (02.26.09)
• Drake vs. Bradley  (02.28.09) 

Neat-O Stat.  Home Sweet Home.  The Missouri Valley Conference is known for defending its home court.  Southern Illinois is 92-6 in overall home games since 2001-02 and is 61-2 against conference opponents at home during that same period.  During that same period, Creighton is 97-17 at home.  Since Creighton opened the Qwest Center in 2003-04, the Jays are 66-13 at home.   These are just a couple of examples of why major conference teams don’t want to visit Valley schools. 

65 Team Era.   The MVC is a multiple-bid league, having before last season gone a decade between single-bid years (1998 to 2008).  In the 24-year history of this era, the league has only gotten one bid seven times, and even got as many as four in the high-water mark of 2006.  Despite an average seed of #10.2 over this period, the Valley has gone 22-45 (.329) and put seven different teams into the Sweet 16, including S. Illinois in 2007 and both Wichita St. and Bradley in 2006.  What’s more, in the last six years, MVC teams play teams tough, losing by an average of 6.1 pts in their knockout games (only one double-digit loss in 14 games).  We see 2008 as a one-year blip, and have no reason to believe the MVC won’t continue to put numerous teams into the Dance and have them succeed.    

Final Thoughts.  If Creighton plays to its potential they could easily run away with the conference and have a chance to make some noise in the Big Dance.  The 2-5 spots will be a dog fight between the established Southern Illinois and the questions of the one-year wonders of Drake and Illinois St.  Bradley will stick its nose in and cause a little disruption in the league similar to what Drake did last year and could be the big surprise.  If the Valley teams can win their high-profile non-conference games, the league will be recognized again as a powerful conference.  No significant wins by the Valley in the non-conference could unfortunately put them in obscurity for another season.  However, I say to look for the Valley to be a multiple-bid league once again this season and to make an impact on the college basketball world. 

Mrs. Donovan appears thrilled at the press conference naming her husband the new coach of the Orlando Magic.

Memo to Billy Donovan:

Listen to your wife before you sign the contract next time. As a married man of over a decade, you should have known better. Sure, her lips may have been mouthing “do whatever you want, honey” but the eyes… look at those eyes!!! were saying something completely different.

Because of this egregious infraction in marital comprehension, you now look like a circus clown (isn’t Barnum & Bailey’s college around there too?) and more than a little flakey in front of the basketball universe. Sure, others have been down this road – most recently, Dana Altman (Creighton to Arkansas and back) and Gregg Marshall (Winthrop to College of Charleston and back) – but neither of them were foolish enough to sign a contract prior to backing away. The last person we can remember who actually signed the contract while still employed was Bobby Cremins (Georgia Tech to South Carolina and back), and has he been heard from since? Not really. (Note: Majerus was unemployed/retired/at the trough when he backed out on USC in 2004; and Cremins is now the head coach at College of Charleston in an ironic twist.)

So let’s be honest, Billy. Despite complete radio silence coming out of Gainesville, and Orlando officials stating publicly that you are still in a “dialogue” with the Magic, we all know that this is simply legal saber-rattling for the sake of saving face. The buyout/settlement that you will pay Orlando will surely be substantial. Wouldn’t that money have been better spent on a new convertible Benz for your wife – which, incidentally, you’re going to have to buy her anyway (look at the eyes). A Benz might actually be getting off easy – imagine all the painstaking interrogations and whispering that is already going on behind her back at the PTA meetings and at the pool’s social committee. Her ears are burning and her eyes are furious.

Actually, Billy, here’s another thought. After you get off the phone with Orlando management, maybe you should call Tiffany’s as well. We heard that diamond earrings look just divine while driving an SL 55 Roadster.

Update: Andy Katz wrote that Donovan started having second thoughts on Friday afternoon at the Florida farewell press conference, and upon waking Saturday morning, he was sure he had made the wrong decision. This dovetails very nicely with the Christine Donovan effect. Who hasn’t gone home thinking a decision is final only to learn that your opinion is far less valuable than you believed when it results on you sleeping on the couch that night?