Big East M5: 11.01.13 Edition

Posted by George Hershey on November 1st, 2013

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  1. The AP Top 25 preseason poll was released yesterday and Marquette was the only Big East team included. They came in at #17, the same as the USA Today Coaches Poll. Creighton had the 27th most votes and Villanova, Georgetown and St. John’s also received some votes. Many pundits believe Creighton should have been included. ESPN.com‘s Jeff Goodman tweeted “Three teams that didn’t make the cut in the Preseason Top 25 that should have: Creighton, Harvard and Colorado.” The Bluejays finished last season ranked #22 and return four starters, including stud Doug McDermott. Voters may have decided against ranking them because of their move into the Big East and some expected growing pains. It’s also surprising to see Villanova receive more votes than Georgetown even though the Hoyas have been picked by many to win the league whereas Villanova was chosen fourth in the Big East preseason poll.
  2. Two Big East schools picked up commitments from recruits this week. Class of 2014 guard Jon Davis committed to DePaul. Davis plays at a fast pace and liked the fact that he will have a chance to contribute as a freshman. He saw his stock rise this past summer when he played very well against top five recruit Emmanuel Mudiay and saw his offers increase, but he ultimately decided to play for Oliver Purnell. Providence also received good news when 2015 forward Ryan Fazekas committed to the Friars on Tuesday. Fazekas is a tall shooter who could pose match-up problems for opposing bigs.  He is not a highly ranked player by the recruiting services, but his ability to shoot and his size attracted many brand-name programs to offer him a scholarship. He is Ed Cooley’s first recruit in the class and Cooley has some momentum on the recruiting scene, signing several big recruits the past few seasons. DePaul also received some good news about Cliff Alexander’s recruitment. The consensus top five recruit in the 2014 class said that he has eliminated Michigan State from contention; he is down to Illinois, Kansas, Memphis and DePaul. Alexander would be a program changer for Purnell and could instantly propel the program to success unseen in decades.
  3. The NCAA is instituting new hand-check rules this season and Xavier coach Chris Mack is not a fan. There will be fouls called for keeping a hand or forearm on an opponent, putting two hands on an opponent, continually jabbing an opponent by extending an arm, or placing a hand or forearm on the opponent and using an arm bar to impede the progress of a dribbler. When Mack was asked about the changes, he bluntly responded “They stink. I don’t think fans… want to see one team shoot 50 free throws and the other team shoot 46 free throws. Usually at some point… you hear fans yelling out, ‘Let them play!’ And I think that’s going to be a real problem.” Mack makes a good point. The change was made to help offenses move more freely and ultimately score more points. This could result in a more exciting game and make it more similar to the NBA, but there are downsides like more players in foul trouble, longer games, and many more free throws. Marquette’s Deputy Athletic Director Mike Broeker tweeted his thoughts after Marquette’s scrimmage last week, “Concessions sales go up thanks to new rules emphasis. Games will be 3 hours #doublebonus #lotsoffouls.” It will take time for players and coaches to adjust, but free throws and team depth will play a huge role this season, and will decide many games.
  4. Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News wrote a great piece about five potential additions to the Big East if it ultimately decides to expand. The five teams he included were St. Louis, Richmond, Dayton, VCU and Gonzaga. He makes the point that it would be best if they stayed at 10 teams, but in today’s environment, every conference becomes infatuated with expansion. Every team playing each other twice is great for the programs and the fans. If all goes well in the first few years, moving to 12 teams would be a good decision. St. Louis and VCU seem like the best potential additions, as they are very good teams on the rise with strong fan bases. They also would help the league grow in new markets and bring in two great current coaches in Shaka Smart and Jim Crews.
  5. Happy Halloween! The Sporting News put together a slideshow of college basketball players dressed up for Halloween. St. John’s D’Angelo Harrison is the only Big East player included and looks great as Spiderman and Robin. Todd Keryc also wrote a nice Halloween piece, Trick or Treat: The Big East Schedule Edition, highlighting some of the exciting non-conference match-ups for the upcoming season.
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Breaking Down Dan Hanner’s Big East Projections

Posted by George Hershey on October 28th, 2013

Economist and college hoops writer Dan Hanner posted  his annual projections for ESPN Insider on Friday. It is a very interesting article and a recommended read for any college basketball stats junkie. He puts a unique spin on his projections by starting at the player level instead of the team level. The advantage, as he puts it, “is that not all additions have the same impact everywhere. For example, transfer Trae Golden is expected to have a huge impact on Georgia Tech because the Yellow Jackets had a big hole at PG. But if he had been added to a team like Duke, with multiple quality ball-handlers, his impact would have been much smaller. The player-level model can account for these kind of differences.” His rankings take into account player upside as well as downside and he gives a best-case and worst-case position for each team.

Grant Gibbs and Creighton need to shore up their defense to reach their full potential this season.

Grant Gibbs and Creighton need to shore up their defense to reach their full potential this season.

The Big East is well-considered by Hanner. The league’s 10-team average is 53.9, slightly behind the Big Ten at 49.2 and well ahead of the AAC at 79.9. Last year’s Big East would have scored considerably higher with Louisville in the second spot as well as Syracuse and Connecticut in the top 25. This year, the Big East does not have as many teams at the top with Marquette leading the way at #17, but there is great balance with DePaul the only team lower than #100. It does not look like any teams will be battling for #1 seeds this season, but there could be seven or eight squads fighting for spots in the NCAA Tournament come February and March.

The following are the 10 Big East teams in descending order:

  • POFF - Projected offense, median prediction for points scored per 100 possessions
  • PDEF - Projected defense, median prediction for points allowed per 100 possessions

1. Marquette Golden Eagles

17. POFF: 116.1 | PDEF: 92.5 Best case: 7th | Worst case: 29th

Hanner ranks the Golden Eagles in the same spot as the USA Today poll. Buzz Williams’ squad is ranked highly in both offense and defense, but neither is extraordinarily high. For Marquette to reach its best case scenario, they would need their three new starting guards to come close to last year’s production from the trio of Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue and Trent Lockett, a very difficult task. The frontcourt returns everyone, but Jamil Wilson and Davante Gardner will have to become the go-to scorers and also rebound well while Chris Otule locks down the paint defensively. With Williams’ track record, it seems unlikely that his team would drop out of the top 25 unless the guards are unable to step up and contribute at a high level.

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