Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Postseason Preview

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament will be a dogfight this season as a lot of teams feel like they have a great chance at winning it all.  The top six seeds all have legitimate shots at winning.  Games are not always about who has the best players, but who ultimately gets the best matchups.

• Who’s Hot—Missouri State is definitely the team to beat.  They are on a roll with six straight conference wins to end the season.  A lot of teams have troubles matching up with the Bears as Kyle Weems plays more like a guard than a forward.  If everything goes like it has the past couple of seasons in the MVC, then you will see Missouri State heading to the NCAA Tournament.
• Who’s Not—Northern Iowa is definitely the team who, despite the decent seed, is really struggling right now.  Ad nauseam we have talked about the loss of O’Rear to the Panthers, but it is apparent they have not found someone to patrol the paint like he did.  Losing six of their last seven doesn’t help either.  If Creighton uses their frontcourt to their advantage, then the Panthers will likely be out after the first round.
• Watch Out For—Indiana State.  The Sycamores are tougher than people are giving them credit for and could surprise Wichita State as both teams are incredibly deep and match up well with each other.  Indiana State took them to triple-overtime at Koch Arena, which is as tough as any place in the nation to win a game.  The Shockers have struggled to finish out the season, and were a few seconds away from finishing the season 0-3.
• Tournament Prediction—In what could be considered another down year for the Missouri Valley Conference, there is a small chance that if Missouri State and Wichita State met in the finals of the MVC Tournament that both teams might make it into the NCAA Tournament.  However, with their conference tournament occurring a week before all the major conferences play their conference tournament, it is very likely the selection committee will have forgotten by then about the MVC tournament runner-up.

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Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference

A Look Back

• First week of Conference Play—The Missouri Valley Conference started conference play this week as each team had two games on the schedule.  In the first televised game of the season on the Fox Sports Net package, Missouri State and Northern Iowa took things down to the wire.  With Kyle Weems being pretty much ineffective for the Bears, he hit a three pointer with 2.5 seconds left to give Missouri State a one point victory against the defending champion Panthers.
• Northern Iowa starts 0-2—The Panther s have started conference season 0-2 with a couple of thrilling games against Missouri State and Southern Illinois which were decided in the final seconds.   With the two losses, history may still be on their side since they seem to be exceptions to the rule.   Since 1993-94, only one team (Northern Iowa, a 2008-09 co-champion) has won at least a share of the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season title without winning its regular-season opener — and UNI lost Wednesday night.  Further, 15 of the last 16 regular-season champs (or co-champs) have opened 2-0 or better in MVC play, with UNI in 2008-09 once again serving as the exception.   So either they will become the next exception to the rule or they’re already essentially eliminated from contention on January 1^st , one week into conference season
• Three team race? –At this point of the season, it would appear the best scenario for the Valley to have multiple bids is for Wichita State, Missouri State and Creighton to continue winning and separating themselves from the rest of the league.  The rest of the league has questionable records and even if teams like Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa can rise up out of the Valley regular season; their records still may not be palatable to the selection committee to consider more than the conference tournament champion.

Player of the Week— Jermaine Mallett, Missouri State –Mallett matched his career high of 22 points in the win against Illinois State this week and averaged 18 points and 6.5 rebounds.  He was key in the comeback against Northern Iowa and helped lead the Missouri State Bears to an early 2-0 conference mark.

Newcomer of the Week— Doug McDermott, Creighton—Once again, McDermott garners newcomer of the week honors as he averaged 17 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this week including a 28 points and 10 rebounds against Drake on Saturday night.  McDermott‘s 28 points were the most for a Creighton freshman since Ryan Sears scored 29 against Wyoming in 1997.

Power Rankings (Overall and conference records in parentheses, and last week’s ranking)

1. Wichita State (11-2) (2-0) (1)— The Shockers have held serve with their convincing victories over Evansville and Bradley, but those teams are far from the best in the conference.  In the win against Evansville, Wichita State still scored 91 points even though they went through over a nine minute stretch where they scored only 10 points.  They will likely have a couple more appetizers with Drake and Illinois State this coming week before the showdown with Missouri State next Sunday. 
2. Missouri State (10-3) (2-0) (2)— Missouri State looked a little out of sorts against Northern Iowa on Wednesday before the thrilling come back and big road victory in Cedar Falls. The past two seasons the Bears were 1-17 in road games before the win against the Panthers.   Then after getting a win against Illinois State in their home opener, they are well on track.  People will point to Kyle Weems, Adam Leonard or Jermaine Mallett as keys to Missouri State’s success, but it may actually be Will Creekmore that will make or break them.  They will have two big tests this week with the top of the league as they travel to Creighton on Tuesday and host Wichita State on Sunday.  They have a great opportunity to put some distance between the rest of the league.
3. Creighton (10-4) (2-0) (4)— Creighton took a huge monkey off their back in the victory against Illinois State on Wednesday.  The Bluejays seven had lost  of their past eight meetings with the Redbirds coming into that game.  With the win, the four year seniors of Kenny Lawson, Jr., Casey Harriman and Kaleb Korver have beaten every team in the league at home and on the road during their career.  Drake played physical with the Bluejays on Saturday night, but they were able to fend off the Bulldogs to start 2-0.   One key player that may be missing for a while is sharpshooter Ethan Wragge.  He has been fighting plantar fasciitis all season.  After a few games of action, his foot is back in a boot and it is unknown when he is going to return now.   Missouri State comes to town before a two game road trip a rival Southern Illinois and Evansville.
4. Southern Illinois (7-6) (1-1) (6)— Southern Illinois makes the big jump of the week after bouncing back from the loss against Drake to steal one against Northern Iowa.  Having a short memory was important for the Salukis this week as Carlton Fay hit a shot with two seconds remaining to help SIU knock off the Panthers.  This could be a big week for Southern Illinois as they travel to Bradley and then host Creighton and Illinois State.  They could be in the thick of things if they can go undefeated in this week’s stretch.
5. Northern Iowa (8-5) (0-2) (3)— As noted above, the Panthers suffered some crushing losses early, losing their first two games by a total of three points.   The word of the week might be panic, but like we talked about earlier, there is still plenty of time to turn things around.  Northern Iowa can feast on Evansville, Indiana State and Bradley this week to try and get back in the race.   is second in the league in scoring through the first week averaging 21.5 points a game.
6. Evansville (7-5) (1-1) (7)— The Purple Aces were blown out by Wichita State to open play but rebounded to take a close one against Indiana State. Evansville would like to get out of the shadow of other Indiana schools, but it is a long road.  Evansville could be in some trouble again as they travel to Northern Iowa and Missouri State before hosting Creighton on Sunday.
7. Illinois State (8-5) (0-2) (5)—The Redbirds started where I projected by losing their first two games.  A week after saying they aren’t hitting the panic button yet, they may be ready to.    Hitting the road for two of three games this week can’t be too exciting.  Neither is the home matchup against Wichita State. 
8. Indiana State (6-7) (1-1) (9)— The Sycamores won against the injury riddled Bradley team but could not hold off their in-state rival Evansville.   A couple of home games might be what is needed to give first year coach Greg Lansing an opportunity to make some noise early.  However, they will have to do it without Jake Kelly.  The senior who transferred from Iowa a couple of seasons ago has not had good luck in Terre Haute.  Kelly suffered a knee injury ending his season early last season and now he has a stress fracture in his foot this season that could keep him out of action for an unspecified time.
9. Drake (6-7) (1-1) (10)—The Bulldogs up and down season continues.  They got an opening night win against Southern Illinois but then ran out of gas against Creighton in Omaha.  The theme most of the season for Drake were turnovers, but against Creighton it was rebounding.  They were outrebounded 45-24.   Their road trip continues to Wichita State before hosting a couple of home games against Indiana State and Bradley.   Rankings 8-10 could change significantly after this week.
10. Bradley (6-7) (0-2) (8)— Bradley has lost seven of their last nine games and failed to secure a conference win this week.  The Braves are playing three of their first five conference games on the road and could lose another home game on Tuesday against Southern Illinois.   Bradley has always seemed to get socked with a weird conference schedule.  One positive for Bradley is Andrew Warren who is currently riding on 38 consecutive free throw makes, the second longest streak in Bradley history.   

A Look Ahead

Some great games at the right time this week as conference play enters the second week.  It will be more intense with three games for each school between Tuesday and Sunday.

• 1/4—Missouri State @ Creighton (Fox Sports Net)—Both teams come into this game at 2-0 in conference play and will be a good challenge to see who can take the early lead in the conference.
• 1/4—Southern Illinois @ Bradley (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)—Bradley has started off 0-2 while Southern Illinois is looking to build on their last second win against Northern Iowa.  The Braves could be out of the race early with a loss here.
• 1/7—Creighton @ Southern Illinois (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)—This is always a heated rivalry although it has cooled a bit the past few seasons because both programs have been trying to get back to their top level status.  Nonetheless, it should be a good one to catch on a Friday night.
• 1/9—Missouri State @ Wichita State (ESPNU)—The Bears and Shockers were picked in the preseason to battle it out for the conference championship this season.   This is the first of their two matchups with this one at the always tough Koch Arena.
• 1/9—Bradley @ Northern Iowa (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)—It is weird to think that Northern Iowa might be on the outside looking in for the first time in the past couple of seasons after starting 0-2.  With the third game in a week, it will be interesting to see if the Panthers can walk away with a winning record or end up at the bottom of the Valley standings.

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

PRESEASON vs. ACTUAL RESULTS

As you can see from the preseason predictions I made on the Missouri Valley conference back in October versus how things ended up, the MVC turned out to be difficult to predict this year as none of the teams performed as expected other than Northern Iowa and Wichita State.

I originally was not sold on the Panthers, but as the season wore on, I could see the cohesiveness and all the little things this group of players do to win games.  Even with the suspension of Jordan Eglseder in three of the final four games, they were able to rally for the most part and continue their dominance in the Valley.  Wichita State may have surprised some, but the Shockers appear to be back in the Valley picture after a few year absence from relevance.  The work Gregg Marshall has done to build this team back up from scratch has paid off.  The question now is whether it is enough to get to an NCAA Tournament postseason.

HELLO SAINT LOUIS

The Missouri Valley Conference tournament will take place this coming week at the Scottrade Center in downtown Saint Louis.  Rush the Court will be live in St. Louis this week to keep you updated on the things going on at Arch Madness.  Here is how the bracket shapes up:

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Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current Records and my standings, (Conference Record) (Last Week):

1. Northern Iowa  14-1  (5-0) (1)
2. Wichita State 13-2 (4-1) (2)
3. Missouri State  13-3 (3-2) (3)
4. Illinois State  12-4 (3-2) (4)
5. Indiana State  11-5 (3-2) (6)
6. Bradley  7-8 (2-3) (7)
7. Southern Illinois   9-5 (2-3) (5)
8. Creighton  7-9 (2-3)  (8)
9. Drake  6-11 (1-4)  (10)
10. Evansville 6-8 (0-5) (9)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Valley sitting 10^th — The Missouri Valley Conference is sitting 10^th right now in the Pomeroy ratings with Northern Iowa sitting up on top at #33 with Wichita State and Missouri State at #62 and #68 respectively.  In 2006 when the Valley had so much success and got four teams into the NCAA Tournament, six teams were in the top 60.  It will be interesting to see what kind of rankings they can end up with at this rate.  The conference is getting back to the national scene, but the numbers still are not where they were a few years ago and they are just hoping to get at least more than one team in the Big Dance this season.

Northern Iowa ready to run away — Speaking of Northern Iowa, the Panthers look like they could run away with the Valley this season.  With road victories already at Southern Illinois, Illinois State and Creighton, they have set themselves up for a chance to run away with the conference.  However, they still have all those teams at home.  Last season the Panthers struggled down the stretch, losing a lot of games in their own building.   A game in Wichita on January 19^th is one to circle on the calendar as you may see the first game between the two leaders in the Valley.

Teams separating themselves — There are several other teams in the Valley trying to separate themselves from the rest of the pack to make the Valley less weird and wacky compared with past seasons.   Wichita State is playing extremely well right now along with Missouri State and Illinois State wanting to have a say.  A dark horse could be Indiana State.

Historically top teams need to check into rehab — Last season it was Southern Illinois suffering a losing record for the first time in ten years.  This season it may be Creighton headed to a losing season, sitting at 7-9 right now.   Southern Illinois may still end up joining them by the time the season is over as they have now lost three straight.  It is very unusual to see one of these two teams heading to the bottom of the league, but if both end up down there by season’s end, then there will be a lot more questions going forward.

TEAMS TO BEAT

Northern Iowa (2-0 this week)—As mentioned above, the Panthers are getting a lot of attention especially with a 13 game winning streak, but also as the only undefeated team in conference play after big road wins at Southern Illinois and Illinois State this past week.  Some feel that UNI deserves to be ranked.  They better be careful for what they wish for.  This week Northern Iowa gets to host Bradley and Indiana State which looks like an easy enough task, but there might be an upset in there that could turn things upside down.

Wichita State (2-0 this week)—The Shockers keep plugging along, getting wins against Creighton and Missouri State.  Wichita State had a 25 point lead at Missouri State before barely holding on at the end to get the win.  The Shockers, however, still look to play a full 40 minutes but have a lot of weapons.  The controversy in that game was that a fan in the Missouri State crowd shoved Toure Murry to the ground.  Likely no punishment for the fan.  They might have found that full 40 minutes on Saturday night as they took revenge against Creighton over last season’s MVC tournament game shocker with a rowdy home crowd and took Creighton out right from the beginning of the game.   They will be tested this week as they hit the road for both of their games against Indiana State, and a return game with Creighton in Omaha.

AVERAGE WEEK

Missouri State (1-1 this week)—Missouri State thought they could just show up to their JHQ Arena home court and notch a win, but Wichita State kicked them in the mouth to remind them that their non-conference success was nothing on which they could hang their hat.  Though they made a valiant effort to come back, it wasn’t enough, and they lost their first one at home.  They were able to rebound from that game to pound Bradley this week as Kyle Weems led the way with 30 points in that win.  Road trips to Drake and Bradley this week await the Bears.

Illinois State (1-1 this week) –The Redbirds got off on a good note this week to defeat Evansville as expected, but then laid an egg in front of a national television audience in their loss to Northern Iowa.  Though they remember the troubles with Northern Iowa over 300 days ago in the MVC Tournament finals, it was not enough for them to pull the upset.   Illinois State will fly under the radar this week against Evansville and Drake.  If they expect to be in the Valley race, they need to win both of these games this week.

Indiana State (1-1 this week)—The Sycamores have to be kicking themselves in that they had an opportunity to get a win at Bradley before losing in overtime after a furious comeback in the second half.  At least they were able to turn it around to blow out Evansville.  Indiana State is increasingly looking like a better and better team and could be in the mix in the conference race, but they cannot let games like Bradley slip away.  They also need to avoid the injury bug.  Last week it was Jake Kelly, now they hold their breath on leading scorer and rebounder Dwayne Lathan and a leg injury.   With Wichita State and Northern Iowa on the schedule this week, this could be a make or break point for Kevin McKenna and his team.

Bradley (1-1 this week)—Bradley needed overtime to get past Indiana State and then  lost at Missouri State this week.  There are doubters on whether this Bradley team can improve the rest of the season, but do not count them out.  With games against Northern Iowa and Missouri State this week Bradley needs to wake up now if they want to stay in the race.  Really, Sam Singh is in his final year at Bradley.

Creighton (1-1 this week)—Funny how both teams that have the most veteran coaches (Jim Les – Bradley), have teams on which they aren’t sure what they really have.  Creighton survived after a pesky Drake team took them to the wire earlier in the week, and then they were “not ready” for the Koch Arena crowd in Wichita.  In addition, Creighton forward Casey Harriman said, “We think we have it, but we don’t.  We need to recognize our record and where we’re at in the league. We have to do something about it.  Yeah, we are Creighton, but we’re not the Creighton of old. We’re not getting it done, and we need to pick it up.”  They need to do it in a hurry; Southern Illinois and Wichita State come to town this week.

Drake (1-1 this week)—Drake almost pulled out a win at Creighton this week, but then was able to come back against Southern Illinois to steal a victory in Carbondale.  The Bulldogs were looking to turnaround their season against SIU, and that is exactly what happened.  Drake is going to be one of those teams throughout the rest of the season that could play spoiler to other teams’ conference hopes.  This week, Missouri State and Illinois State get to head to Des Moines to play with the Bulldogs.

STRUGGLING THIS WEEK

Southern Illinois (0-2 this week)—Is Chris Lowery’s job really on the line in Carbondale?  Yes, Southern Illinois struggled mightily last season, but they were on their way back up, right?  Well, this week after the loss to Northern Iowa, there were quotes from Lowery criticizing the crowd for not getting behind his team.  Then, a writer at ESPNChicago called for Lowery’s job.  People on the Salukitalk message board were talking about bringing Lowery boo signs to the arena, as well.  There was just a full explosion on that board about Lowery.  With the collapse in the final minutes against Drake this past Saturday to give them a three game losing streak, there are probably even more boo birds out there, and questions as to whether or not Lowery’s job is secure.   They hit the road to Creighton and Evansville this week.

Evansville (0-2 this week)—Another week and another couple of Evansville losses.  But they also lost another player as Bryan Bochie decided to leave school and basketball all together.  But coach Marty Simmons thinks Bochie leaving will be a positive on the team.   Will they show up to play Illinois State and Southern Illinois this week?  Probably, but don’t expect them to walk away with a win.  Maybe when they host Drake in a couple of weeks.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

The Valley does not have a lot of compelling matchups this week due to many top teams playing bottom feeders, but here are the best of the crop (or at least the ones you can watch on TV):

• 1/12, Bradley @ Northern Iowa (ESPNU)—The Panthers try to stay undefeated in conference play.
• 1/13, Southern Illinois @ Creighton (Fox Sports Net)—These two teams have historically sat at the top of the conference, but these rivals are fighting to just stay relevant in the conference race.
• 1/16, Indiana State @ Northern Iowa (Local TV)—The Sycamores want to be in the race, and a win at Northern Iowa would be huge.
• 1/16, Wichita State @ Creighton (ESPN2)—The second matchup in a week, this time on ESPN2 as the Bluejays try to make it a closer game at home.
• 1/17, Illinois St. @ Drake (ESPNU)—The Redbirds have been flying a little under the radar with Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Missouri State getting all the attention.  This is a chance to showcase what they bring to the table.

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

MY STANDINGS (current records)

1. Missouri State  (4-0)
2. Wichita State (2-0)
3. Illinois State (2-0)
4. Indiana State (2-1)
5. Southern Illinois (2-1)
6. Creighton  (2-1)
7. Bradley  (2-1)
8. Northern Iowa  (2-1)
9. Evansville (2-1)
10. Drake  (1-4)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Injuries, Illness and Suspensions—The Valley has started out with several injuries, illnesses and suspensions this season, causing some teams to play without some veteran leaders including:

• Bradley lost Dodie Dunson for the season with a broken arm suffered in their game against Idaho State while Taylor Brown is serving a suspension for  an offseason battery charge.  Brown was the team’s leading scorer during the Labor Day trip to Brazil. 
• Creighton lost Justin Carter to an MCL tear for 2-4 weeks, Casey Harriman was hospitalized with swine flu that turned to tonsillitis that turned to strep throat that turned into mononucleosis, while Chad Millard has been out with a foot injury since September.
• Drake was without Josh Young due to a hip pointer injury.
• Wichita St. was without Clevin Hannah for the first three games (including the upcoming CBE Classic game against Pittsburgh) due to a “paperwork” error on his amateur status. 

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