12:10 pm – #1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga  (Buffalo pod)

In the CBS national game to start the day, everyone will get this very enticing game between Syracuse and Gonzaga.  Given the way this year is winding up, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Orange without their big man Arinze Onuaku found itself on the short end of the score around 2:30 pm today.  But we still have faith in Syracuse even without the talented center and we think that Jim Boeheim’s team is too good to fall short of the Final Four this early.  The primary problem that the Zags are going to have is one they didn’t have to worry as much about with Florida State, and that is in stopping the powerful SU offense.  With offensive scoring threats at all five positions, Syracuse is in a far more advantageous position than FSU was (with their limited offense) when Gonzaga caught fire on Friday — if the Zags want to get into a shootout with Syracuse, that’s not likely to end well for them. Still, with the way the Big East has had so many early round troubles, and the WCC looking great with St. Mary’s already in the Sweet Sixteen, we’re not ready to dismiss the Zags based on that alone.  The Syracuse zone is likely to be something that Mark Few’s team has not seen with such athletes all season, so even with their ability to put the ball in the hole, we hesitate to think the Zags can consistently score on it.

The Skinny: Gonzaga will push the Orange, but we still like this team to advance and make a serious push for the national title in coming weeks.

2:20 pm – #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech  (Milwaukee pod)

You might not see it on their faces, but the Buckeyes are smiling.  Northern Iowa’s removal of Kansas puts Ohio State in the driver’s seat in the Midwest region.  That said, there’s still no way Thad Matta and Evan Turner are going to let the rest of that team look past their opponents and assume an open road to Indianapolis.  Good thing, because Georgia Tech showed us that they’re not just made up of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal and a bunch of suckers.  The Yellow Jackets shot 2-10 from the three point line but balanced that by holding Big 12 player of the year James Anderson to a 3-12 shooting night, 0-6 from beyond the three-point arc, and an overall 11 points.  But the most impressive aspect of Georgia Tech’s performance on Friday night — by FAR — was the fact that they went to the free throw line 25 times — and hit 24 of them!  It wasn’t just Lawal and Favors.  Tech played nine players, and eight of them shot at least one free throw.  Evan Turner isn’t just the player of the year in his conference, though — he’s likely the national POY, so the Tech task is that much tougher.  Turner wasn’t himself in their first round game against UCSB, going 2-13 and posting only nine points (though he did contribute 10 boards and five assists).  He’s looking to break out, and knows he’ll have to be at his best.  Lawal and Favors, though, will be looking to get Dallas Lauderdale, Jon Diebler, and Turner in foul trouble early and open poke some holes in that OSU front line.

The Skinny:  You probably don’t want to go with our Midwest picks, since yesterday we took Kansas and Ohio.  It’s not exactly going out on a limb to say that this will be a great second round game, but that stat line of Turner’s shows you that he can play such an important role on the team even when he’s not scoring.  For Tech to win, they’d have to turn in a similar performance at the free throw line, keep Turner under wraps and coax him into a supporting role again, and cool down Jon Diebler.  That’s a tough trifecta to pull off.  We don’t see it happening.  But we didn’t see Northern Iowa dismissing Kansas, either.

2:30 pm – #4 Maryland vs. #5 Michigan State  (Spokane pod)

We bet some scouts and film guys are working overtime for these two teams, not only gathering extra film on their opponent on Sunday, but also erasing all that Kansas game film to make room for some material on Northern Iowa!  This will be interesting not just because it looks like one of the funnest matchups on paper, but because of what we saw in each team’s first round game.  Michigan State seemed as if they were already looking forward to playing Maryland as opposed to worrying about New Mexico State.  Some would even say that the only reason they got by the Aggies is because of a controversial lane violation call (our opinion: if a ref sees something, he has to call it, no matter the teams or the time) from which the Spartans benefited.  That aside, in the post-game press conference, Tom Izzo didn’t look like Tom Izzo.  You could see the worry and a little bit of surprise.  Maryland, however, didn’t exactly have an easy time against Houston but it wasn’t as tough a game as it looked.  Greivis Vasquez looked more than content to let Aubrey Coleman and Kelvin Lewis go crazy for the Cougars and grab all the scoring headlines, take a back seat in scoring to teammates Landon Milbourne and Jordan Williams, and collect assists and rebounds.  Michigan State rode Kalin Lucas‘ career high of 25 points to that first round victory, and they can’t let it get to that point against the Terps.  The Spartans as a team didn’t shoot very well (20-53, 37.7%), and they let NMSU hang with them on the boards.  That’s MSU’s calling card, especially at tournament time.

The Skinny:  The one who dictates tempo will win.  And Maryland seems to have more of a sense of purpose than does Michigan State right now.  We thought we’d see a little more spring in the Spartans’ collective step as the tournament began, but it wasn’t there.  Another great second round game, but we see Maryland getting out to an early lead, Michigan State closing the gap in the second half, but the Terps pulling it out in the end.  We always hesitate to go against Izzo and his boys in early round games, but this MSU team looks a little confused right now.

2:40 pm – #2 West Virginia vs. #10 Missouri  (Buffalo pod)

Besides being the stronger overall team with a plethora of options, West Virginia has a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. Even before Justin Safford tore his ACL, the Tigers weren’t a strong rebounding team and often found themselves with a size disadvantage against Big 12 opponents. Missouri ranks #329 in the nation in preventing offensive rebounds from their opponents, a concerning stat for Mike Anderson given that the Mountaineers come in at second in the nation in offensive rebounding. Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones, Wellington Smith and the other West Virginia bruisers could have a field day on the boards. It’ll take a yeomen’s effort from Laurence Bowers and Keith Ramsey to keep the second chance points from getting out of hand. Where Missouri cancels out these types of numbers is with their suffocating press and forcing turnovers. The Tigers stand at third in the nation in steal% and second in the nation in turnover% defensively. Missouri will need to force Joe Mazzulla and the many West Virginia ballhandlers into traps and turnovers to keep the game from remaining in the halfcourt. They’ll also need hot shooting days from Kim English and Marcus Denmon.

Skinny: This seems like a poor matchup for Missouri. They may be able to stick around given West Virginia’s tendency to let their opponents hang, but second chance points and the shooting of Butler will vault the Mountaineers into the Sweet 16, a stage Bob Huggins doesn’t often reach.

2:50 pm – #4 Wisconsin vs. #12 Cornell  (Jacksonville pod)

Rather than the lower seeded Cornell surviving a scare in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, it was heavy favorite Wisconsin grinding out a 40-minute victory over Wofford to earn the right to advance. The Badgers received major contributions late from their junior forward Jon Leuer, a player they’ll need to step up once again in order to play in the Sweet 16. The key for Cornell will be the effectiveness of their seven foot center Jeff Foote. The Badgers have a severe matchup issue with Foote; their big men, Leuer and Keaton Nankivil, may be 6’10 but they like to drift towards the perimeter and may not be able to contain the Cornell behemoth in the post. Foote features an array of nifty moves on the block and could give the Badger big men headaches. In the end, this game should come down to who makes more three pointers. Both teams love to shoot from downtown, whether it be Trevon Hughes or Jordan Taylor for the Badgers or Ryan Wittman and Louis Dale for the Big Red. While Wisconsin does boast a top ten defensive efficiency on the season, they don’t guard the long range shot particularly well. Cornell’s overall defense and three-point defense happens to be even worse.

Skinny: I thought it would be Jimmer Fredette, but Ryan Wittman could be the budding star from this NCAA Tournament that turns into a household name. I expect another big performance from the Cornell senior in a close win where each possession is vital.

4:50 pm – #3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Xavier  (Milwaukee pod)

This is a rematch of last year’s regional semifinal game that Pittsburgh won, but very few of the players who played in that game are still in the fold.  The three primary players on this year’s Pittsburgh team — Jermaine Dixon, Brad Wannamaker, Ashton Gibbs and Gilbert Brown — combined to score 17 points in last year’s win, while XU’s returnees — Dante Jackson, Jason Love, Kenny Frease and Terrell Holloway — scored just 15.  Of course, Xavier has added a superstar player in Jordan Crawford, who blew up on Minnesota in the first round for 28/6/5 assts, and Pittsburgh has had a miraculous year with a bunch of guys who were merely role players last season.  Both of these squads looked very impressive in their first round games, but in a battle of really strong defenses, we like the fact that Xavier has a few more offensive options than Pitt does in this one.

The Skinny: In a tight defensive battle, we like Xavier to outlast Pitt in a revenge game for the ages.

5:00 pm – #4 Purdue vs. #5 Texas A&M  (Spokane pod)

The Boilermakers come into this game having knocked off a Siena team that a lot of the betting/bracketeing public probably picked to win that first round match-up. In doing show they showed a lot of people that they do have heart, which is something that Matt Painter had questioned earlier this season even when they had Robbie Hummel. The Aggies prevailed in the first round against their namesakes from Utah State thanks in large part to relentless defensive pressure and an unexpected contribution from freshman Khris Middleton who scored a career-high 19 points. Don’t expect Middleton to match those numbers against the Boilermakers, but you can count on the Aggies bringing their defense again. The Aggies will be chasing Purdue around every screen they try to throw at them and will provide a very different look than what the Boilermakers saw against Siena. You can expect a physical game which the Aggies prefer, but I am not sure anybody on the Boilermakers does with the exception of Chris Kramer. The key match-ups to watch in this one are on the inside where JaJuan Johnson will battle against Bryan Davis and on the perimeter where Kramer will attempt to slow down Donald Sloan, the one consistent scoring option for Mark Turgeon. The one wildcard in this match-up is E’Twaun Moore who has struggled recently, but could carry the Boilermakers into the Sweet 16.

The Skinny: Look for the Aggies to advance to Houston unless Moore or Johnson go off, which could happen, but we wouldn’t bet on it.

5:15 pm – #1 Duke vs. #8 California  (Jacksonville pod)

Reliant Stadium Hosts the South Regional

Region: South

Favorite: Duke, #1 seed, 29-5. Yeah, I know it isn’t shocking that they are the favorites especially in what many are calling the weakest of the four regions, but the Blue Devils have a solid combination of perimeter talent (albeit limited in numbers) and interior players (quantity more than quality, but still something). With the way Jon Scheyer has been playing this season and the sudden re-emergence of Kyle Singler in the ACC Tournament, Coach K and the Blue Devils should have their sights set on Indianapolis.

Should They Falter: Villanova, #2 seed, 24-7. A Final Four team last year, the Wildcats had the appearance of a Final Four team a month ago (many will still pick them now), but after losing five of their last seven games to close the season some of that luster has worn off. Still we would be remiss not to list them here as all but one of those losses came on the road (neutral site in one case to a #6 seed) against a team that is in the NCAA, another team with a top-3 seed and another to a UConn team back when Jim Calhoun’s players still cared.

Grossly Overseeded: California, #8 seed, 23-10. I know they won the Pac-10 regular season, but as you may have heard the Pac-10 was awful this year. When we asked Mike Montgomery about the possibility that the Bears might miss the NCAA Tournament this year he was perturbed. While he might have made it into the NCAA Tournament it does not erase the fact that they did not beat a single team in the top 50 of the RPI ratings. The Bears might deserve a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but I think most people would agree that they have not earned a seed this high.

Grossly Underseeded: Siena, #13 seed, 27-6. This might be where they deserve to be seeded based on their resume this year, but this is the team with the most “growth potential.” The Saints struggled in their conference final, but they have won first round games as an underdog in each of the past two years. Last year they knocked off Ohio State as a #9 seed and the year before knocked off Vanderbilt as a #13 seed. With an experienced squad they would be a tough out as a #13 seed in any bracket.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): Siena. Like we said they won their first round games each of the past two years and there might not be a team more set-up to be upset in the first round than the Robbie Hummel-less Purdue Boilermakers. If they get past Matt Painter’s crew, they will play the winner of the Texas A&M and Utah State. It won’t be an easy second round game, but since it is in Spokane, Washington, we can’t imagine that either team will have a huge following there (although Utah State could conceivably travel up there).

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): Richmond. Anybody who follows college basketball is aware of the Spiders’ reputation for pulling off shocking first round upsets. That won’t be the case this year as they come in as the #7 seed against the #10 Saint Mary’s Gaels. Still if they can get past Omar Samhan in the first round they could cause all sorts of problems for Villanova with their Princeton Offense.

Carmelo Anthony Award: Scottie Reynolds, Villanova, 18.5 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.7 RPG, and 1.5 SPG. He did it last year. He may well be the most dynamic small players in the nation not named John Wall. If anybody is going to carry their team to the Final Four out of the South Region it will be Reynolds.

Stephen Curry Award: Omar Samhan, Saint Mary’s, 20.9 PPG, 11 RPG, and 3 BPG. Just a year after Patty Mills left the Gaels, they have another potential superstar. Samhan isn’t your typical small-school star who is going to run up and down the court and destroy your team with a barrage of three-point shots. Instead, he is going to go down low and embarrass your big men while emasculating them.

Home Cooking: The South Region might as well be called the Sky Miles Region because nobody is playing close to home in the opening weekend. The only way any of these teams will play close to home is if they advance to the Regional in Houston and in that situation Baylor (probably), Texas A&M (maybe), and Sam Houston State (unlikely) would likely have the home crowd on its side. This could play a major role in determining the outcome of the South Regional.

Can’t Miss First Round Game: Richmond vs. St. Mary’s, Thursday @ 2:50 pm. Normally we hate it when two mid-majors meet like this because it feels like another play-in game, but this game is too good to miss. Richmond has been a borderline top 25 team throughout the year, but after a four-point loss in the Atlantic 10 Finals to Temple they slipped to a #7 seed. As a result they will face a St. Mary’s squad that destroyed Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Finals. Look for an entertaining game with two of the best mid-major teams you will see all year.

Don’t Miss This One Either: Purdue vs. Siena, Friday @ 2:30 pm. This is the “upset du jour” in the first round for the South Region. It almost sounds too straightforward. A big-name school that has had a disappointing finish to the season—first with Hummel’s season-ending knee injury, then with an evisceration at the hands of Minnesota—going up against a small school that has the pedigree and the experience of having knocked off big-name schools in the past (see above). Still with E’Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, and Chris Kramer, the Boilermakers will not be an easy out.

Lock of the Year: Purdue not “living up” to their seed. Even if they manage to escape their first round match-up against Siena, I can’t see them getting to Houston. And just remember that they were seeded well below where they probably would be if you looked at the ranking. . .

Juiciest Potential Match-Up (Purists): Richmond vs. Villanova in the second round. Sure the media will eat up the giant-killer angle with Richmond (ignoring the fact that Villanova is the most famous giant-killer knocking off Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown Hoyas in the 1985 NCAA title game), but between Richmond’s Princeton offense and Villanova’s bevy of talented guards this game should thrill everyone who loves “old-school” basketball.

Juiciest Potential Match-Up (Media): Duke vs. Louisville in the second round. Almost everyone is circling this as a potential trap game for the Blue Devils, but that only scratches the surface of the media angles here. Rick Pitino and his Karen Sypher saga will come up again [Ed. Note: Nobody was more appreciative of the Tiger Woods fiasco than Pitino.] Then there is the coaching matchup between Pitino and Krzyzewski. We will have replays of the 1992 East Regional Finals. [Ed. Note: If you aren’t watching you will know when it is on from the blood-curdling screams coming from the state of Kentucky. And speaking of Kentucky, Wildcats fans will most likely have an aneurysm. Who do they root against? Afterward are they happy that someone lost or sad that someone won?]

We Got Screwed: Notre Dame, #6 seed, 23-11. The Irish got all they could have asked for in terms of seeding, but they could have had a much better draw. They open with a very good Old Dominion team that nobody wanted to play (ask Digger Phelps). If they win that they will most likely get a Baylor team that is a trendy pick to make it to Indianapolis. So even though nobody in the South Region can complain about their draw too much, the Irish have the biggest beef. Looking at the draws for the other #6s I would definitely rate Marquette’s (East) and Xavier’s (West) as easier with only Tennessee’s (Midwest), most likely having to get through San Diego State and Georgetown, as more difficult.

Strongest Pod: Spokane. Tough call between this and the New Orleans pod, but that pod has a bad team (Sam Houston State) while all four in Spokane (Purdue, Texas A&M, Utah State and Siena) are solid.

Wildcard, Bitches: Chad Ford tweeted during the Bracket Selection Show that there were no lottery picks in Duke’s region. He might have been too kind. Outside of Duke’s team where Mason Plumlee is the #37 prospect and Singler is the #55 prospect on Ford’s NBA Draft rankings, only one other player is in the top 65: Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson at #50.

So-Called Experts: It seems like a somewhat even split between #1 Duke and #2 Villanova among the ESPN crew.  Currently 44% of users in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge game are picking Duke out of this region, with Villanova at 34% and #3 Baylor garnering 11% of the vote.

Vegas Odds to Win Title:

• Duke = 8:1
• Villanova = 20:1
  
• Baylor = 30:1
  
• Purdue = 60:1
  
• Texas A&M = 100:1
• Notre Dame = 100:1
  
• Richmond = 300:1
  
• California = 100:1
  
• Louisville = 100:1
  
• St. Mary’s = 300:1
  
• Old Dominion = 300:1
  
• Utah State = 500:1
• Siena = 300:1
• Field = 50:1
  

Dave Zeitlin is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League.

This season saw an unprecedented three teams reach the 20-win plateau in the Ivy League — a dominant Cornell team headed to the NCAA Tournament (expected); a young, but extremely talented Harvard team (disappointing); and a resurgent Princeton team (surprising). Hopefully the latter two have earned an invite to one of the myriad of lesser post-season tournaments. Here’s a look at the final standings:

1. Cornell (13-1, 27-4): The final go-around for 10 seniors proved to be the best. Now the goal for Louis Dale, Jeff Foote, Ryan Wittman et al is to win a game or two in the tournament. A preview of their chances can be found below.
2. Princeton (11-3, 20-8): Two tough losses to Cornell sealed their fate, but they earned runner-up honors with a couple of victories over Harvard. A bright future with their top five scorers returning.
3. Harvard (10-4, 21-7): Beat everyone except the top two. Jeremy Lin’s loss via graduation will be felt, but in freshmen Brandyn Curry and Christian Webster, the Crimson boast a backcourt that can compete with the best nationally. Next year’s preseason choice.
4. Yale (6-8, 12-19): An up and down Ivy season for the Elis. The lone bright spot was All-Ivy senior guard Alex Zampier. He leaves New Haven as the school’s all-time assist leader while scoring over 1000 points.
5. Columbia (5-9, 11-17): The Lions earn the fifth spot over co 5-9ers Brown and Penn by virtue of their head-to-head sweep of both teams. Next year’s team will be built around sophomore Noruwa Agho, their only double digit scorer.
6. Brown (5-9, 11-20): Little to separate the Bears from the Quakers other than a slightly better overall record, so they get the nod here. Stat machine Matt Mullery (team leader in points, rebounds, and assists) leaves after a fine career.
7. Penn (5-9, 6-22): The record was something that Palestra fans (those that showed up) were not used to. Nor were early-season injuries and a mid-season coaching change. Sophomore point guard and Player of the Year candidate Zack Rosen is already a star.
8. Dartmouth (1-13, 5-23): Not much to cheer about in Hanover. Hopefully Mark Graupe can breathe some enthusiasm into a program that has pretty much been the league doormat for a while. Most of the top players return.

Postseason Awards
Without fanfare we present you with the best of the 2009-2010 Ivy League basketball season:

All-Conference Team

• Ryan Wittman 6-7 Sr F—Cornell
• Matt Mullery 6-8 Sr. F–Brown
• Jeff Foote 7-0 Sr. C–Cornell
• Jeremy Lin 6-3 Sr. G–Harvard
• Zack Rosen 6-1 So. G–Penn
• Alex Zampier 6-3 Sr, G—Yale
• Louis Dale 5-11 Sr. G—Cornell

All-Freshman Team

• Kyle Casey 6-7 F–Harvard
• Tucker Halpern 6-8 F–Brown
• Andrew McCarthy 6-8 F–Brown
• Ian Hummer 6-7 F–Princeton
• Brandyn Curry 6-1 G–Harvard
• Christian Webster 6-5 G—Harvard

Statistical Leaders

• Points per game: Zack Rosen (Penn)–17.7
• FG %: Jeff Foote (Cornell)—62.3%
• FT %: Zack Rosen (Penn)—86.2%
• 3-point FG %: Jon Jaques (Cornell)—48.8%
• Rebounds per game: Jeff Foote (Cornell)—8.2
• Assists per game: Louis Dale (Cornell)—4.8
• Steals per game: Jeremy Lin (Harvard)—2.5
• Blocks per game: Greg Mangano (Yale)—2.0

Individual Honors
Television has the Emmys, theater the Tonys, and of course movies have the Oscars (undoubtedly named for Robertson). We have decided to name the Ivy individual awards, the Bradleys – in honor of the greatest Ivy player ever.

Coach of the Year: A strong case could be made for Steve Donahue, who first recruited, and then led this ultra-talented Cornell team to three straight Ivy crowns, their best record ever, and that near miss against No. 1 Kansas. However, the Bradley goes to Sydney Johnson of Princeton. In ’07-08, the Tigers were 3-11 and 6-23; ‘08-’09, 8-6 and 13-14; and this year improved again to 11-3 and 20-8. They finished second, most assuredly will get a postseason invite, and will be favorites (along with Harvard) for the 2010-2011 season.

Freshman of the Year: The Bradley goes to Kyle Casey of Harvard (who would also win 6th Man of the Year). The 6-7 local forward averaged 10 points and 5 rebounds per game while shooting over 50% from the field and 80% from the line. However, look out next year for Casey’s freshmen teammates Curry and Webster, who will form the most lethal backcourt in the league.

Player of the Year: Ok, so all those who followed Ivy hoops (even just a little) figured this one was easy. Jeremy Lin has been a star at Harvard, lit up UConn on national TV, and has attracted more than just a little NBA interest. However, he had a lot of help this year (see the three freshmen above) and to be honest, Harvard would have finished third without him. Or maybe you were leaning toward Ryan Wittman, the highest profile member of the Cornell team – but he too had a strong supporting cast. So in an upset, the Bradley for Ivy Player of the Year goes to Zack Rosen of Penn. We can hear the chants of “homer” and “you bleed red and blue” but consider the facts. Rosen led the league in scoring (17.5 and nearly 19 in Ivy play) and free throw percentage, he finished in the top five in field goal percentage (fourth), 3-point field goal percentage (fourth) and assists (third). We have a feeling that this won’t be the last “trophy” this sophomore hoists at the Palestra.

Musings on the Madness (or Crying 96 Tears)
It wouldn’t be a March column of any note without chiming in on what many feared might happen and what now looks like a done deal – an expansion of the NCAA tournament to 96 teams. By now you already have heard the arguments against or have your own pet peeves – why mess with a good thing, it waters down the tournament, makes the regular season and for the most part, conference tourneys, meaningless, smacks of greed etc. All valid and true points and it rankles my March hair. Let’s look at some of the ramifications:

• As of this writing, the bidding is still up for grabs between ESPN (who once upon a time did a GREAT job of covering the tourney) and CBS and their new partner (gulp) Turner. A collective cringe imagining Ernie Johnson in studio and Chip Caray doing the National Championship game.
• Think of how Norm Roberts will feel when St. John’s is the only Big East team NOT invited to the Big Big Dance
• With games tentatively scheduled for six days during that first week (Tuesday-Sunday) it has already been calculated that divorce rates will now soar to 87% and 71% of all males between 16-86 will have a DUI on their record. And there will be no new births in December.
• Gus Johnson will be unable to speak for six months.
• The relatives of Bill Veeck will suggest a tournament for the bottom 96 teams.
• A Chevy commercial, with Howie Long, will appear 1024 times during media timeouts.
• DIRECTV will charge $922 for their Mega March Madness package.
• The outcry from teams left out, claiming they are indeed one of the top 96, (thinking Poulin/Weedeater Bowl here) will be deafening and those that sneak in will shout “unfair” as their teams are relegated to one of the 32 play in games. So….
• In 2012 the tournament will expand to a fair and equal 128 teams (yes that is Norm Roberts still seething as SJU is 129 in RPI). I can just hear it now “You know Clark, no # 32 has ever beaten a #1” and “That 16-17 game (Northern Illinois/Furman?) ought to be barn-burner.”

Seriously, since we are powerless to stop this nonsense, at least let’s offer the NCAA some advice as how to make this reasonable. First, limit the amount of bids one conference gets to 50 percent of the member teams. Second, no team with a below .500 record in conference play gets an at-large bid. And third, automatic bids go to regular season champs as well as conference tourney champs. That way, the regular season will have some meaning, conference tournament Cinderellas can still play their way in, and more deserving teams from mid-majors (do I hear three from the Ivy League?) get to play. No one wants to see No. 10 from the Big 12 play No. 14 from the Big East. But this will only be a stopgap, because for all of you under 50, look forward to the 2040 Tourney when all 347 teams (including St.Johns and interim coach LeBron James) are invited to March/April/May Madness.

A Look Ahead
It is hard to believe that not only is this our last Checking In column of the year, but that Selection Sunday is only a couple of days away. So it is with the disclaimer that we are writing this without the benefit of seeing the brackets that we present our fearless forecast on what to expect from the Ivy representative – the Big Red of Cornell.

Why they will succeed: The important factors to consider are these: 1) The Big Red have been here before as ten seniors are playing in their third straight NCAA tournament. 2) They won’t be intimidated, regardless of opponent. They went toe-to-toe with Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse and along with Memphis and Cal are the only teams to have played both Kansas and Syracuse – considered by most to be likely the choices to be cutting down the nets in April. 3) They have the talent in the trio of shooter Ryan Wittman, seven-footer Jeff Foote, and point guard Louis Dale, as well as a strong supporting cast.

Why they will fail: Cornell lost only four games all year – Kansas, Seton Hall, Syracuse, and Penn. What do all four losses have in common? Incredible 3-poing shooting by the opposition coupled with turnovers by Cornell. In those four games the opposition shot almost 48 percent from behind the 3-point line and in each of those games, Cornell turned the ball over more than their foes. Admittedly, defense and taking care of the ball has been the Achilles’ heel for the Big Red all season – but it doesn’t usually matter against weaker Ivy opponents.

Prediction: First let us remember this – before the loss to Penn, Cornell had risen to as high as No. 22 in the polls. For most ranked teams (i.e. Texas who has lost eight of their last 14 games and remarkably remains in the Top 25) one loss is not damaging. Not so when you are a mid-major. Had they not lost, you would be looking at an 8 or a 9 seed instead of the 12 or 13 they are likely to receive. Still, we firmly believe that Cornell can hang with any possible first-round opponent. We also believe that Las Vegas will agree and Cornell will be only a slight underdog to a 4 or 5. And as incredible as it may seem, look for Cornell to not only win one game, but to become this year’s Cinderella and wear the glass slipper all the way to the Sweet 16.

Nationally
Four weeks ago we thought that if Lewis Jackson could return at full strength to Purdue, the Boilermakers had what it took to cut down the nets. He did, and they were rolling into the top 5. The injury to Robbie Hummel effectively ended that dream. So instead of trying to find another team to root for, we decided to look at the field objectively and scientifically and see what we would come up with. Here is our theory:

Statistically, a team has to do well in the following four categories: Shoot the three, defend the three, rebound, and make their free throws. Furthermore, they need to have at least three go-to guys and at least two potential pros. There is only one team in the country that is in the Top 40 in the four statistical categories and qualifies in the other areas as well. Reluctantly, we present you with the Duke Blue Devils. We say reluctantly because while we believe this is the best and most balanced Duke team in a while, the ACC is weak and their non-conference schedule was as well. And let’s face it: unless you are a Dookie, Coach K and his crew are difficult to root for. Duke has lost to tourney-bound Wisconsin and Georgetown and has only beaten one team out of conference (Gonzaga) that will be dancing. (Note: that number could become three if UConn – unlikely – and Arizona State – probable – make the field). However, that being said (to quote Omar Minaya) lets look at the numbers. Duke ranks No. 1 in 3-point FG% defense, No. 21 in 3-point FG %, No. 8 in FT %, and No. 18 in rebound margin. Their three go-to guys are the S-Men – Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler – each of whom are averaging over 17 points per game and the latter two, along with possibly some combination of the Plumlees (Mason and Miles) and Brian Zoubek, will be NBA draftees. By the way, for those of you looking for an edge in your office pool, there are only two teams in the Top 40 in three of those categories – Xavier and St.Mary’s – so look for those two to outlive their seeding.

So there you have it. We hope you have enjoyed our bi-weekly Ivy chatter as well as our occasional overall college basketball perspectives. Even though our heart lies with Penn, we will be rooting hard for Cornell to win a game or two and have the nation talking Ivy hoops along with us.

It is time to rejoice college basketball fans. After seven long months college basketball is back (officially). Since the last game of importance (UNC dismantling Michigan State), we’ve put up with the drama of Billy Gillispie getting fired and John Calipari getting hired (technically before the title game) along with John Wall, Lance Stephenson, and Renardo Sidney taking a ridiculously long time to decide where they would go to college (maybe just for one year) then waited to see if they would be eligible to play, which will probably be an ongoing drama throughout the season, and put up with a lot of really bad behavior by players and coaches. Now it is time for the games to begin. To be honest, the opening week is a little light on great games, but the pace should pick up next week as the early season tournaments get underway and we know that college basketball fans are craving a fix of real games so this week should still be exciting.

Monday (11.09.09)

FIU at #4 UNC at 7 PM on ESPNU: Ok, I’ll admit it. This game is more interesting for the sideshow that is Isiah Thomas more than it will be compelling basketball unless Isiah decides to lace them up one more time. As for the actual basketball, I’ll be “watching” (quotation marks since this game is on ESPNU which nobody has) UNC to see how they have reloaded with the departure of Tyler Hansbrough (last seen filming awful commercials), Ty Lawson (last seen talking about how he should have left Chapel Hill after his freshman year), and Wayne Ellington (last seen on the bench in Minnesota). My guess is that we will be seeing a lot out of the frontcourt with John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Deon Thompson, and Ed Davis. Watch for the emergence of Ed Davis as Roy Williams will no longer have the option of hiding this budding superstar in what some believed was an attempt to keep his draft stock down and keep him in Chapel Hill for at least one more year (see Roy blowing off my question about Ed at the press conference after the Miami-UNC game last year–it’s the last question on the video as he is folding up his papers both while I am asking the question and as he is dodging the question).

Albany at #25 Syracuse at 9 PM on ESPNU: A week ago I wouldn’t have even thought this would be a contest, but that was before the world learned about Le Moyne. While Albany is a nice middle-of-the-pack America East team they shouldn’t be much of challenge for the Orange, but that depends on how shell-shocked they are after the Le Moyne debacle. Watch for Jim Boeheim to try to pound the Great Danes on the inside. Virgina transfer Will Harris will have his hands full on the inside with Wesley Johnson, Rick Jackson, and Arinze Onuaku.

Murray State at #12 California at 11 PM on ESPN U: This might be the most interesting game of the night even if it might be the least interesting to the casual fan, but we will be courtside covering the game for this year’s opening RTC Live (and we’ll be back two nights later when Detroit comes to Berkeley). I’m not expecting the Racers to pull off the upset although I think this game could be closer than a lot of people expect as Billy Kennedy brings a team that has the potential to win the Ohio Valley Conference into Berkeley. Kennedy will rely on his talented trio of Danero Thomas, Ivan Aska, and Isacc Miles against Mike Montgomery‘s talented group of perimeter players led by Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, and Theo Robertson. Montgomery’s trio (with some help from Duke transfer Jamal Boykin) should be enough to hold off the Racers, but if they come in believing the considerable hype we might just have our first upset of the regular season.

Friday (11.13.09)

Hofstra at #1 Kansas on ESPN Full Court and ESPN360.com: I’m not really expecting this to be a competitive game, but it is worth watching to see the consensus preseason #1 open up. Expect to see Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich play about 20-25 minutes in what should be a glorified exhibition. Hofstra has a pretty big name for a mid-major, but coach Tom Pecora will have the unenviable task of having to replace Antoine Agudio, the school’s all-time leading scorer, and he also lacks an interior presence to battle Aldrich on the inside–expect to see Aldrich dominate Greg Washington and Miklos Szabo on the inside. One match-up that might turn out to be interesting is at point guard with Collins going against Charles Jenkins (the only returning player in D1 to average more than 19 PPG, 4 RPG, and 4 APG last season). Outside of that check out the game to see Xavier Henry, who will have to work for his minutes this season on a deep and talented Jayhawk team.

Morehead State at #5 Kentucky on ESPNU: We would like to talk about how we think that one of the contenders for the Ohio Valley Conference title could take down Kentucky’s vaunted group of freshmen in their opening game, but it’s more likely that this could be a preview of a NCAA tournament game — a 1st round NCAA tournament game. Donnie Tyndall‘s team will have its hands full going into Rupp Arena with 23,500 rabid Kentucky fans ready to witness the rebirth of their program. One match-up that might be interesting will be Patrick Patterson (yes, Kentucky does have players outside of its freshmen) against Kenneth Faried, the odds-on favorite to win OVC POY. For the NBA scouts who might be reading this, you’ll have to wait to see John Wall who is sitting out as part of his suspension, but there will still be NBA talent on the court with Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins on the inside for the Wildcats.

Given that Stanford ended up as a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and rode the Lopez Twins to the Sweet 16, Johnson’s job appears safe, but lo and behold if the other major source of academic smug on the west coast, Cal-Berkeley, didn’t fire its longtime and chronic underachiever Ben Braun last week.  Hmmm… 

Judas Iscariot is Moving to Berkeley

Mercenary that he is, Montgomery today accepted the head job at Cal in a startling move that can only be compared with one of the other great treasonous acts in college sports history (Rick Pitino to Louisville) – equally heinous, but perhaps with a little less passionate response from the fans.  Make no mistake though, despite both being world-class institutions of higher education, these two schools do not like one another, and several of the pranks the students have played on each other rank among some of the very best we’ve seen (especially this one).  So the very idea that the architect and greatest coach in the history of Stanford basketball (he’s in the Cardinal HOF, for chrissakes!) will cross the Maginot Line Bay to coach the enemy is nothing short of perfidy. 

To its credit, um, the Stanford community seem to be taking the news well.  One poster named CreoleCard on this forum caught our eye with his measured response to the news (love the use of the small “c” to really hammer home the inferiority angle):

1. We got his best years.  I can’t imagine that he will be that thrilled to recruit now at his age.
2. He won’t have to worry about admissions standards at cal.
3. It’s fitting that cal would want our left overs.
4. Interesting that cal would go to him with all the younger, up-and-coming coaches available.
5.  Anything at cal is doomed to failure.  The tide is turning on Tedford now.

If they’d just stopped there, we’d have no problem with their rankings.  However, they also felt a need to add a third criterion – the NCAA’s school graduation rates for student-athletes, which have been long derided as archaic, inconsistent and generally not useful as a tool for determining how well a school is serving and educating its student-athletes.  Use of these graduation rates as a performance measure ultimately results in a reductio ad absurdum situation where an elite academic and athletic instutition like Stanford is penalized because an obviously articulate and well-rounded athlete such as Tiger Woods did not formally graduate before turning pro.  

A Relevant Indicator?  Not Here

And not only that, the NCSA decided to weight graduation rates equally (each counting one-third) with the academic and athletic ratings.  We could probably live with its inclusion if its weight was substantially minimized, but not as it currently exists.  Nevertheless, here is the NCSA list.  See Table A below.

Table A.  NCSA Division I Power Ratings 

Ok, so we have no problem with many of the schools at the top – HYP, Duke, Stanford, Rice, the other usual suspects…  But look at some of the more dubious schools that piggyback a high graduation rate (and not much else) into the top 50 – UMass-Lowell??  Bentley??  Coastal Carolina??  The NCSA cannot be serious.

According to the NCSA, Bentley Does Better Than Cal & Texas as an Academic/Athletic School

Additionally, consider the schools who do not have athletes who would normally be inclined to leave school early for the pros, train for the Olympics or seek more playing time elsewhere (not even benchwarmers leave Harvard).  The NCAA penalizes schools with transfers under its current metric for determining graduation rates.  Therefore, the Ivies, W&M, Furman, Drury, etc., all fare well in Table A because of the disproportionate weight given by the NCSA to graduation rates.  The bigger state schools that have excellent academics and athletics, yet are more vulnerable to market forces and playing time considerations - Michigan, UNC, Virginia, UCLA, Cal – are all penalized using the NCSA method. 

So let’s take a look at what the NCSA should look like, by eliminating the graduation rates and simply comparing academic success and athletic success.  See Table B below.

Table B.  Division I Ratings (US News + Sears Cup)

That’s more like it.  Stanford is in its rightful place at #1 (how could the #4 national university and 13-time defending Sears Cup winner not be?), and all the schools we’d expect to be near the top of such a list are there.  Look at some of the highest risers – Johns Hopkins went from 59th to 3d; Cal from 88th to 5th; Texas from 78th to 14th; Wisconsin from 45th to 10th. 

This list is instructive in the sense that it shows which schools are getting the most out of its academic and athletic programs, but the NCSA flubs it my weighing graduation rates on par with the other two much more informative criteria.  Maybe they’ll do better next year.     

Update:  a UCLA fan rightfully questioned us as to why the Bruins and crosstown rival USC were not originally included on our list.  After a few moments of thought, we realized that the NCSA list didn’t have either school in its top 100!!!  This can only mean that the LA schools’ respective graduation rates were so low that its weight carried both schools outside the NCSA top 100 D1 schools, essentially proving our point about the ridiculousness of its weighting system.  UCLA (#25 US News and #2 Sears Cup) would earn a rating of 13.5 in our system, which would place the Bruins #4 on our overall list.  USC (#27 US News and #5 Sears Cup) would earn a rating of 16.0, placing the Trojans #7 overall. 

Update #2:  After reviewing NCSA’s data, we decided a whole new post was warranted.  We revamp the entire list and also take a look at how the BCS conferences stack up in our Athlademic Ratings – Revised.