RTC Bracketology: February 3 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on February 3rd, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries. 

Five top 10 teams lost this weekend and my latest bracketology reflects all of the wild results. No. 1 Arizona finally lost after playing with fire multiple times in the last few weeks, but more importantly, the Wildcats also lost power forward Brandon Ashley for the season. The Wildcats — a lock to make the Big Dance — will be evaluated by the selection committee as a new team without their second-leading scorer and rebounder in the lineup. Don’t read too much into it right this second, though. If the NCAA Tournament started today, I have no doubt that Arizona would still be a No. 1 seed.

  • Wichita State finally moved up to the No. 1 line in my bracket after Kansas lost to Texas, but like always, I’m going to be brutally honest about the Shockers. Wichita has only TWO wins over teams in my bracket and that is not the sort of quality resume you expect to see from a No. 1 seed. Still, I have the Shockers on the top line because they are undefeated and they look like a top-5 team when you watch them play.
  • Texas is moving up in a hurry after a convincing win Saturday over the Jayhawks. UCLA is also moving up, even after a loss to Oregon State on Sunday. The Bruins are unranked because the Pac-12 is seen as a weak conference (other than Arizona) and it’s really unfair to UCLA. Despite their bad loss yesterday, Steve Alford’s team looks like the conference’s second-best squad at this point and have the quality wins of a middle-of-the-road seed.
  • Pittsburgh is about to start sliding. The Panthers still lack a top-50 win after falling to Virginia on Sunday. For now, I left Pittsburgh as a No. 6 seed but the Panthers have the feel of a team that gets “shafted” on Selection Sunday and end up a couple of seed lines lower. I’m going to keep re-evaluating the Panthers, of course, but based on how the national media perceives Jamie Dixon’s team (currently seen as a Top 25 team), I have to predict the committee will likely see Pittsburgh in the same light and seed them accordingly.

For the first time this season, there are more than 36 at-large teams deserving a spot in the field which made it hard to pick the final few teams. The full bracket is after the jump:

First Four Out: Oregon, BYU, Clemson, Georgetown

Bids by Conference: Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), SEC (5), American (5), Atlantic 10 (4), Big East (3), Mountain West (2)

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RTC Bracketology: January 27 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on January 27th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries. 

The top of the bracket continues to fluctuate quite a bit at this point of the season. Florida and Kansas moved up to the top line in the past week, as Michigan State and Villanova both lost. The Gators were already a No. 1 seed in my previous update, but Billy Donovan’s team strengthened its position when the Spartans lost. Kansas has the nation’s strongest profile when it comes to quality wins. Bill Self’s team is used to being a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks are the easiest team to project when doing a preseason bracket because they always play a ridiculous non-conference schedule and win their power conference. Did anyone really think a team other than Kansas would win the Big 12 this season?

Michigan is the biggest mover in this week’s bracket. On January 5, the Wolverines were a No. 11 seed. Twenty-two days later, John Beilein’s team has wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Iowa and are a clear No. 2 seed. At that point, the Wolverines only had wins over Florida State and Minnesota. The win over the Gophers looks better every day but beating three top 10 teams in a row is the biggest reason for their jump in the bracket. The Wolverines have without a doubt turned around their season.

There are some other teams rising too, and No. 7 Texas is among them after beating Baylor. Other teams of note include No. 9 Providence and No. 3 Creighton, both of which continue to move up seed lines. I evaluate teams every day, so changes at the bottom of the bracket are in a state of constant flux at this point. The last eight at-large teams in the bracket below are very much on the fence. The entire bracket is after the jump.

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RTC Bracketology: January 23 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on January 23rd, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Over the past six years, Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s No. 11 bracketologist out of hundreds of entries. 

The movement in my newest batch of bracketology focuses completely on the Big Ten. Ohio State continues to slide after a loss to Nebraska earlier this week and still lacks a single quality win. The Buckeyes are No. 9 seed, based mainly on their high RPI and the eye test which seems to suggest Ohio State is a lot better than its recent record.

Some other notes about the January 23 edition:

  • Wisconsin started 16-0 and has now lost three consecutive games after a loss at Minnesota Wednesday night. The Badgers are now a No. 3 seed and at No. 9 on the S-curve. Villanova, despite getting destroyed by Creighton Monday night, stays on the No. 2 line for now. The Wildcats would have been the fourth No. 1 seed if the ‘Cats had won against Creighton.
  • Michigan is flying up the board and is now a No. 3 seed after a big win over Iowa on Wednesday night. The win over the Hawkeyes followed another big win over Wisconsin last Saturday. Minnesota is also moving up and is a No. 6 seed after beating the Badgers.
  • The last eight teams in the at-large field continue to look like a bunch of mediocre clubs with hardly anything separating them. Arkansas lost on the road Wednesday night at Tennessee, eliminating the Razorbacks’ chance of moving back into my field. Arkansas is now 2-22 on the road under head coach Mike Anderson and 44-5 at home. I need someone smarter than me to figure that one out. I’ll keep the Razorbacks outside of my field until they can beat anyone on the road, no matter what they do at home. Considering the Hawgs have only one more chance for a big win this year (vs. Kentucky, at Rupp) it’s likely they are done barring some kind of unbelievable turnaround in road games. Don’t count on it.
  • The SEC has four teams in my latest field, but No. 12 Missouri barely made it after a loss to LSU this week. No. 10 Tennessee only made it because there really is a lack of quality teams in the lowest at-large seed lines and at least the Vols have a couple of good wins.
  • The Pac-12 seems to be racing the SEC to get as few NCAA Tournament bids as possible. No. 1 Arizona is a lock, but teams like No. 10 California (which lost to USC Wednesday night) continue to dare the committee to only take two or three teams from the conference. No. 9 Colorado can’t help that Spencer Dinwiddie was injured against Washington, but the Buffaloes are now thrown into a group of Pac-12 bubble teams that they likely would have been head and shoulders above. No. 9 Oregon, No. 11 Stanford and No. 9 UCLA all appear to be very up and down this season.

The full bracket is after the jump.

NOTE: Teams in all capital letters are projected auto-bid winners.

 

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RTC Blind Resumes: January 20 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on January 20th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s No. 11 bracketologist out of hundreds of entries. 

Which of these teams should make the NCAA Tournament field? Vote in our poll below, but DO NOT give away the team names because that takes away the fun of the entire exercise.

 

I will reveal the answers on Twitter at @bracketexpert at 7:00 PM CT Monday. Use the hashtag #bracketblinds to discuss.

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RTC Bracketology: January 20 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on January 20th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s No. 11 bracketologist out of hundreds of entries. 

A lot changed in my bracketology following a crazy weekend of college basketball. I’m going to try to break it down and make it as simple and as easy as possible. First, let’s start at the top.

  • Villanova replaces Wisconsin on the No. 1 seed line after Wisconsin lost twice last week. The Wildcats simply have a better resume than Florida, who is No. 5 on my S-curve despite a loss to Wisconsin earlier this season. Remember, the Gators were not completely healthy in their loss at Wisconsin. Point guard Scottie Wilbekin, who has become the go-to guy for Florida in the final minutes of games, missed the final few minutes of the last second loss at Connecticut.
  • Wichita State stays on the No. 3 seed line despite being undefeated. The Shockers simply do not have the profile of a No. 1 or No. 2 seed at this point. Gonzaga didn’t last year at this time either, and still ended up on the No. 1 line, so stay patient Shocker fans.
  • Oklahoma has jumped up to a No. 4 seed after wins against Baylor and Iowa State. The Cyclones stay as a No. 3 seed, but are sliding. Baylor falls to a No. 8 seed after a couple more losses. Ohio State is also sliding — the Buckeyes’ profile looks nothing like the seed of a surefire NCAA Tournament team, although that is where most bracketologists continue to seed them as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed.
  • Anyone wanting a prediction from me can write this one down: Kansas will end up with a No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks have a tremendous profile like always, and are playing their best basketball of the season.

I think that’s enough for now. If you have questions (and surely you do), please tweet me @bracketexpert.

First Four Out: VCU, Illinois, Arkansas, Southern Mississippi.

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RTC Bracketology: January 18 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on January 18th, 2014

bracket pic

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert.

Going into Saturday, this has been a crazy week in college basketball. Let’s review:

  • Baylor is sliding after getting destroyed by Texas Tech.
  • Ohio State continues to have zero good wins and has now lost three straight games.
  • Wisconsin lost its first game of the year at Indiana Tuesday night.
  • Kansas knocked off Iowa State Monday night and continues to move up in my bracketology rankings.

I listed Kansas as a No. 1 seed in my preseason bracketology because the Jayhawks earn No. 1 seeds more consistently than any other team in the country. Kansas always schedules well and it pays off. The Jayhawks are up to No. 2 in my latest bracket and are nearing the No. 1 seed line at this point. Wichita State remains on the No. 3 line despite being undefeated. It’s nothing personal against the Shockers — really, it’s not. They just don’t have the profile of a top two seed at this point. Colorado lost Spencer Dinwiddie to an ACL injury earlier this week and the Buffaloes lost to UCLA  a few nights later. I’ve moved Colorado down because of Dinwiddie’s loss. For now, I’m keeping New Mexico State and Belmont in the bracket below despite losing games this week and technically falling out of first place. It’s still early in the year and for one night, I am willing to give those teams the benefit of the doubt.

Here is the complete field, seeded #1-#68:

First Four Out: Arkansas, Stanford, Indiana, Saint Mary’s

#1 Seeds:
ARIZONA (Pac-12/WEST)
SYRACUSE (ACC/EAST)
WISCONSIN (Big Ten/SOUTH)
Michigan State (Midwest)

#2  Seeds:
Villanova
FLORIDA (SEC)
KANSAS (Big 12)
San Diego State (MWC)

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RTC Bracketology: January 13 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on January 13th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert.

There was a lot of movement in my bracketology this weekend. After  a loss to Clemson, Duke is now free-falling. North Carolina, sitting at 0-3 in the ACC after a loss at Syracuse, has fallen all the day to the No. 8 seed line. Ohio State, a team which really has a lackluster overall profile after back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Iowa, has now fallen to my final  No. 3 seed position. The Buckeyes had risen to a No. 1 seed in a bracket I released last week. Colorado and Oregon are also falling quickly. The Buffaloes have the better resume but are preparing for bad news about leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie, who went down with an apparent knee injury last night in a loss to Washington. If Dinwiddie is out for the year, you will see that reflected in my next bracket. Among the teams moving up include Oklahoma, which handed Iowa State its first loss of the season over the weekend. San Diego State has also continued to climb and is nearing the No. 2 seed line, but stays as a No. 3 for now. Iowa also leaped up to the No. 5 line after one of the best resume-building wins of the year at Ohio State.

Last Four In: Indiana State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Georgetown
First Four Out: Arizona State, St. Mary’s, Boise State, Southern Mississippi

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RTC Bracketology: January 10 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on January 10th, 2014

bracketology

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert.

Our latest bracketology shows a little bit of movement at the top. After Michigan State‘s big win over Ohio State Tuesday night, the Spartans jump to the No. 1 line. Iowa State continues to climb and is up to No. 6 overall on my S-curve, while Wichita State is up to No. 9. I’m still doubting that the Shockers can get a No. 1 seed unless they finish the regular season with an unblemished record (or at most one loss), so for now they remain on the No. 3 seed line despite remaining undefeated.

The "Most Annoying Team in America" to Bracketologists (Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports)

The “Most Annoying Team in America” to Bracketologists (Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports)

North Carolina remains the most annoying team in the country. The Tar Heels lost to Miami (FL) earlier this week to add another awful loss to a resume full of them. Of course, the Tar Heels also have three of the best wins in the country over Michigan State, Kentucky and Louisville.. The Tar Heels are like many of my ex-girlfriends, bipolar and unpredictable.

Here is the complete field, seeded #1-#68:

LAST FOUR IN: Georgetown, Texas, Oklahoma, Dayton
FIRST FOUR OUT: California, SMU, North Dakota State, St. Mary’s

#1 Seeds:

  • ARIZONA (Pac 12/WEST)
  • WISCONSIN (Big Ten/SOUTH)
  • SYRACUSE (ACC/EAST)
  • Michigan State (Midwest)

#2  Seeds:

  • Ohio State
  • IOWA STATE (Big 12)
  • FLORIDA (SEC)
  • Oklahoma State

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Big 12 M5: 01.08.14 Edition

Posted by Nate Kotisso on January 8th, 2014

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  1. Just how good is Iowa State? That’s the question Rob Dauster over at College Basketball Talk is asking after the Cyclones pulled away from Baylor in the second half to win the battle of top 10 teams, 87-72. DeAndre Kane had his best game on the biggest stage of the season to date: 30 points, eight rebounds, nine assists and five steals. Dauster believes the Cyclones are a very good team but not a top 10 team. His points are valid — the Michigan and BYU wins don’t have the same cachet now as they did in November, and their best wins (Iowa and Baylor) came at the impregnable Hilton Coliseum. Regardless of what anyone thinks about them, the Cyclones are now one of only five undefeated teams in college basketball along with Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin and Wichita State.
  2. When a team commits 18 turnovers in a conference game, it usually spells doom for the road team. Kansas State was that road team on Tuesday night and still somehow emerged with an 18-point win over TCU, 65-47. The difference for the Wildcats was winning the rebounding edge over the Horned Frogs by 16 boards. “They are not a good rebounding team,” forward Thomas Gipson said. “They play hard and everything, but we really wanted to emphasize our rebounding against them. I feel like we did a good job with that.” Now Kansas State’s winning streak is at 10 games, its longest since the Elite Eight season of 2009-10. Their buddies from Lawrence will be their next opponent on Saturday.
  3. Jerry Palm’s latest bracketology has seven Big 12 teams in the field of 68. Think about that: 70 percent of an entire conference is projected to make the NCAA Tournament. What a number, considering that the Big East’s 11 bids in 2011 accounted for 68.8 percent of that conference. According to Palm, Kansas State and Texas were selected as First Four teams headed to Dayton, Ohio. If they were picked as two of the final teams in, I wouldn’t be so sure if I’d take both. While Kansasa State has recorded its best wins (Ole Miss, Gonzaga, George Washington, and Oklahoma State) within the state of Kansas, those wins are collectively better than Texas’, which pretty much starts and ends with North Carolina in Chapel Hill. But that’s why the season doesn’t end on January 8. Who knows, maybe at season’s end the Big 12 will have seven resumes that are worthy of NCAA Tournament bids.
  4. On Monday, Kansas State’s Marcus Foster picked up Big 12 Newcomer of the Week honors, but the accolades don’t stop there. In a collaboration between the Wayman Tisdale Award and CBSSports.com, Foster has won the Wayman Tisdale National Freshman of the Week for his play against George Washington and Oklahoma State. This is certainly a breath of fresh air when you consider that the award seemed like it’d be passed around between Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon, Tyler Ennis, Andrew Wiggins and the Kentucky freshmen. Hooray for three-star recruits!
  5. West Virginia has missed some opportunities to rack up important wins in non-league play but leading scorer Eron Harris is encouraged by the team’s 2-0 start in the Big 12. Yes, those two wins came against Texas Tech and TCU both of which have worse overall records than the Mountaineers. It doesn’t seem to make a difference to Harris. “I don’t care what team you’re playing in the Big 12, it’s a tough conference,” Harris told MetroNews. “It’s significant.” Their first non-Texas opponent will come Saturday when WVU takes on Oklahoma State in Morgantown. We’ll see if things really are different.
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Does Cinderella Reside in the Big Apple This Season?

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on January 6th, 2014

In Ken Pomeroy’s recently-published conference race simulations, Manhattan wins the MAAC 6,161 times out of 10,000 simulations, which — in an 11-team league— makes it the overwhelming favorite. And for good reason. Despite being picked first in the conference preseason poll, the Jaspers have actually managed to exceed expectations in the first two months, using an aggressive defense and attack-first offense to notch several impressive road victories and an early 4-0 record in league play. So while fellow contenders like Iona, Canisius and Quinnipiac are likely to make the automatic bid far from a guarantee, Manhattan has already shown its potential as the most complete and dangerous upset threat from this league come March.

George Beamon and the Jaspers could be a tough NCAA Tournament match-up. (MAACSports)

George Beamon and the Jaspers could be a tough NCAA Tournament match-up. (MAACSports)

Iona has been the cream of this conference for the past two years, making the NCAA Tournament twice — including as an at-large bid in 2011-12, the second ever out of the MAAC — and doing so with exceptional offense. Tim Cluess’ up-tempo, free-flowing attack has yielded three straight top-30 finishes nationally in offensive efficiency and over 20 wins in each of those seasons. Their problem has often been on the other end of the court, as Cluess’ teams sometimes making a habit of playing porous defense for long stretches that the scoring cannot always overcome. Likewise, Saint Peter’s, the conference tournament champion in 2011, was one of the best defensive teams the league has ever seen (finishing fifth in the country in defensive efficiency), but it could not generate the offense necessary to become a threat in the Big Dance. Put simply, the NCAA Tournament’s MAAC representative has lacked balance in recent years.

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RTC Bracketology: January 6 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on January 6th, 2014

bracketology

My first batch of bracketology in a month shows how much has changed in just the last few weeks. The top four seeds are firmly cemented right now, but conference play is just beginning and things are going to shake up quite a bit before the NCAA Tournament starts.

Note: The bracket below is updated through all games played Sunday, January 5.

LAST FOUR IN: Tennessee, Texas, Michigan, Butler
FIRST FOUR OUT: Wake Forest, Arkansas, Minnesota, California

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AAC M5: 12.20.13 Edition

Posted by Mike Lemaire on December 20th, 2013

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  1. We have yet to write about what will undoubtedly be the biggest story that South Florida is involved in all season, but now seems like as good a time as any. If you are a college basketball fan or just watch a lot of SportsCenter, you probably already know what happened. On Tuesday night South Florida beat Florida Gulf Coast in overtime when officials ruled that the Eagles’ Chase Fieler had possessed the ball before his last-second shot dropped, despite the fact that replays clearly showed Fieler releasing his shot before the red backboard light went on. The NCAA rule book states that once a player “possesses” the ball with 0.3 seconds or fewer remaining on the clock, the play is over, which is different from the NBA’s rule of 0.2 seconds. Fieler pretty much proved that this rule needs to be changed downward, but don’t blame the referees, they were doing their jobs correctly. Instead blame the NCAA rules committee, which, as CBSSports.com points out, won’t be able to change this rule until at least the 2015-16 season. That said, why does the NCAA even have this rule on the books — couldn’t the referees just rely on instant replay to see if he got the shot off in time? We are AAC bloggers, so we have an interest in seeing the teams in the conference win more than they lose, but even we can admit that the Eagles got jobbed on this one. The Bulls are now 8-2 and keep winning, but they didn’t inspire much confidence last night in a three-point victory over 2-9 Florida A&M.
  2. SMU won’t officially begin moving into the newly renovated Moody Coliseum until the team returns home to play Connecticut in early January, but this is nice timing for a Mustangs squad that will be looking to generate excitement for the start of conference play. The uneven play of conference members has only served to bolster opinion of SMU’s dark horse status, but they first need to prove they can beat a team that’s better than Texas A&M. The Mustangs plunked down $47 million for this new arena and it is a big reason why the program appears to be on the upswing and looking to move up in the world. With no major college basketball teams in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, one gets the sense that this is a fan base ready to swell if the the Mustangs win, so now it is on the team and go out and earn that local admiration.
  3. Former Rutgers head coach Kevin Bannon probably thought he was flying off the radar until the Mike Rice scandal broke and all of sudden his name was back in the news as a point of reference. He is now back in the news again, although this time under much friendlier circumstances. This story is a few days old, but The Star-Ledger went down memory lane to a time when men were men and coaches held strip free-throwing shooting contests. For the most part, the now infamous Bannon seems to have mellowed out and is even the Executive Director of the Mercer County Parks Commission. He admits he was “pretty intense” as a coach, which is probably an understatement given the circumstances, but he and his family seem to be at peace with their lives now. This story doesn’t really have a point, I just felt like pointing out that strip free-throw shooting contests have got to be one of the weirdest ways anyone has been fired, because I had nearly forgotten about the strange story altogether.
  4. Although he will remain trapped behind Chris Jones at the point guard position this season, it is only a good thing for Louisville that freshman point guard Terry Rozier is starting to get his sea legs. The 6’1″ Rozier was a beast on the boards against an inferior Missouri State team, corralling eight rebounds and acting as a key contributor in the Cardinals’ win. It would be nice if Rozier was eight inches taller and played power forward, because Louisville is already plenty deep in the backcourt this year. But regardless of where he plays, Rozier’s athleticism will be a major asset for Rick Pitino this year and into the future.
  5. People equate Joe Lunardi‘s name with bracketology, but people outside of the Northeast rarely know that he is also something of a college basketball staple in Philadelphia, where he does radio commentary for Saint Joseph’s. He dropped some quick truth bombs recently when he was asked about Temple, telling Philly.com that the Owls “weakened its best sport, basketball, to a degree, to once again feed a football beast that has been largely unloved for 30 years.” I won’t pretend I understand the ins and outs of what is going on at Temple and its athletic department, but I know enough and trust Lunardi enough to be ticked off by what he is saying. Why does Temple care so much about football? They will never be better than mediocre; they play in a terrible conference; and theywill never be worth all the money the school has sunk into it. Lunardi even points out that the Owls have a golden opportunity to return to basketball glory in a conference with arguably less talent (especially next year), but a much higher profile. Let’s be smart about this and focus on that instead here, guys.
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