Note that Part 1 of Big East Key Questions can be located here.

1. Does Villanova belong in the conversation as a national title contender?

Villanova absolutely belongs in the conversation as a national title contender, somewhere in the top tier with Baylor, Kansas and Gonzaga. Despite losing Saddiq Bey to the Detroit Pistons, the Wildcats return four other starters including two potential All-Americans in Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Gillespie took an enormous leap as a junior by improving his playmaking ability to go along with his reliable long range shooting. Robinson-Earl is a perfect modern center who can defend, rebound and use his quickness to attack the basket. An improved shooting stroke will make him an NBA First Round pick.

However, it is Villanova’s supporting cast that elevates it to the top. Scoring combo guard Justin Moore is due for a major breakthrough after a strong freshman season, and Jermaine Samuels is a forgotten man nationally despite his senior experience, defensive versatility, and double figure scoring at the power forward position. Even with Bryan Antoine currently sidelined, the remainder of the team has a unique mix of upside and experience. Daniels (Tulane transfer scoring guard), Brandon Slater (lockdown defender), and Cole Swider (shooter) could all emerge based on promising flashes, while backup center Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree has played meaningful minutes throughout his career. This mix of high-end talent, experience, and intriguing wildcards has Wildcats fans rightfully excited for the start of the 2020-21 season.

2. Can Providence carry over their hot finish into this season?

I’m buying Providence stock this year. David Duke is a star-caliber player that people outside the Big East seem to foolishly overlook. The Friars’ defense should remain at a high level with a Duke/Jared Bynum backcourt and a deep and experienced frontcourt, and the transfers seem to fit in seamlessly with the existing roster. Noah Horchler provides an inside-out threat, Bynum has a facilitating point guard, Brycen Goodine as a three-and-D rotation guard, and Ed Croswell as a physical presence. Ultimately it will be AJ Reeves and Nate Watson who determine Providence’s fate, though. Both had slightly disappointing seasons last year as Ed Cooley leaned on defensive-minded seniors Maliek White and Kalif Young as the year progressed. They need to be double-figure scorers who play serviceable defense which would allow Providence to utilize Reeves’ shooting and Watson’s post scoring to their full extent. The Friars have Top 25 upside and will likely return to the NCAA Tournament.

This weekend will send the first few teams dancing as conference tournaments are already underway in several leagues. Elsewhere, the power conferences enter their regular season finales with conference titles on the line. Here are 10 questions I have for just some of what will take place on the hardwood this weekend:

1. Which Big East front-runner will gain the edge for a Big East Tourney run? (Seton Hall @ Creighton, Saturday, 2:30 PM EDT, Fox) With a win in Omaha, Seton Hall would guarantee itself a Big East title and the top seed in the upcoming Big East tournament. The #1 seed will open next week’s event against one of the three Big East teams not currently positioned to make the NCAA Tournament. In Creighton’s win at Seton Hall, the four Bluejays scored 18 points.
2. After clinching no worse than a share of the Big 12 title, will Kansas be focused as it heads to Lubbock? (Kansas @ Texas Tech, Saturday, 2 PM EDT, ESPN) The Jayhawks have won 15 straight games and are a win away from winning the Big 12 regular season title outright. In Kansas’ two most recent games, they trailed with a little more than 14 minutes to go. Despite getting just five points from Udoka Azubuike in the first match-up with Texas Tech, Kansas never found itself behind on the scoreboard.
3. Can Jay Huff keep up his recent level of play? (Louisville @ Virginia, Saturday, 4 PM EDT, ESPN) After dominating Duke on the defensive end of the floor last week, Virginia’s Jay Huff put an offensive show against Miami in the Cavaliers’ midweek win. Huff tied his career-high of 17 points while also grabbing nine rebounds. The big man has now scored 32 points over his last two games, the most of any two-game stretch during his career.
4. Will UCLA’s recent improbable run of success continue? (UCLA @ USC, Saturday, 3:15 PM EDT, CBS) Mick Cronin’s Bruins can earn at worst a share of the Pac-12 title with a win over USC this weekend. UCLA has won seven straight games, but they will take on a Trojans team that beat the Bruins by 11 points in early January. In that match-up, foul trouble limited USC’s Onyeka Okongwu to just four points, yet the Trojans still posted 1.17 points per possession behind a 60 percent day from inside the arc and 7-of-14 shooting beyond it.
5. Can West Virginia find any offense as it hosts Baylor? (Baylor @ West Virginia, Saturday, 1 PM EDT, ESPN+) There is no denying that West Virginia is an elite defensive and rebounding squad, capable of frustrating any opponent to great lengths. Unfortunately for Bob Huggins, this Mountaineers team is one of his worst offensive groups. Going back to the 1996-97 season, no Huggins team has logged a worse three-point or free-throw percentage. Poor shooting and a high turnover rate have derailed what was a very promising start.
6. Will returning home help Maryland turn its play around? (Michigan @ Maryland, Sunday, Noon EDT, Fox) Had Minnesota not collapsed against Maryland last week, the Terps would be heading into their regular season finale with four straight defeats. After catching fire late from three-point range in the win at Michigan State, Anthony Cowan has made just 3-of-21 from distance over his last four games. Maryland returns to the Xfinity Center, however, where it has gone 15-1 so far on the season.
7. Can Richmond keep its bubble hopes alive? (Richmond @ Duquesne, Friday, 7 PM EDT) After going 25-40 over the last two seasons, Chris Mooney now has Richmond sitting at 23-7 heading into its season finale. A win at Duquesne would make the Spiders 3-2 against Quad 2 opponents. Richmond currently has the second best in-conference defensive efficiency of any Atlantic 10 team over the past five years.
8. Will San Diego State make it through the Mountain West Tournament unscathed? (MWC Final, Saturday, 5:30 PM EDT, CBS) A San Diego State Mountain West tournament championship would almost certainly lock up at least a #2 seed for the Aztecs in March Madness. Brian Dutcher’s squad has needed recent second-half rallies to avoid picking up their second loss, though. A title game matchup against a Utah State team that is among the Bracket Matrix’s first four out could be the final Mountain West test for San Diego State.
9. Will the Missouri Valley Tournament come down to another thriller between Loyola (Chicago) and Northern Iowa? (MVC Final, Sunday, 2:10 PM EDT, CBS) Top seeds Loyola (Chicago) and Northern Iowa sit on opposite sides of the draw in “Arch Madness.” Both regular season matchups required overtime, with each team winning at home. Conference Player of the Year AJ Green of Northern Iowa made 39.4 percent of his three-point attempts on the regular season, but connected on just 6-of-18 attempts against the Ramblers.
10. Can Liberty hold off a red-hot Ahsan Asadullah of Lipscomb? (A-Sun Final, Lipscomb @ Liberty, Sunday, 3 PM EDT, ESPN) Ritchie McKay’s Liberty Flames are the defending Atlantic Sun champs and the conference’s top seed this season. They take on a Lipscomb squad that is coming off a recent upset at North Florida. Lipscomb’s Ahsan Asadullah had 40 points and 14 rebounds in the Atlantic Sun quarterfinals and followed that up with 27 and 19 at North Florida.

It feels like just yesterday that the season was tipping off and we were examining the biggest questions each Big East team would face this season, trying to fit new players into the puzzle, and evaluating offseason departures. But here we are at the midpoint of the season, and while there has been plenty of clarity around the conference’s contenders, the questions continue to pop up faster than the answers. Below, Big East microsite writers Justin Kundrat and Brad Cavallaro attempt to tackle the biggest ones at this point of the year.

1. Providence is off to a surprising 3-1 start. Is it too little too late or can you see a path for a tournament bid?

BC: Unfortunately, I think it’s too little too late for Providence. Despite an impressive 3-1 start that includes two road wins, the Friars likely need to get to 12-6 to make up for their awful non-conference start. Their schedule will only get tougher from here — providing more opportunities — but will also expose their inconsistent offense. Tonight’s game versus St. John’s is basically a must-win at this point because it may be their easiest remaining game on the schedule. Providence needs more contributions from AJ Reeves and Luwane Pipkins, who combined to shoot 1-of-11 against Butler last Friday.

JK: The best part about the Big East is that there’s no shortage of opportunities for quality wins. I’ve seen a record of 12-6 quoted on Providence’s message boards as the golden record, and honestly, it probably gets them there. That puts the Friars at 19-12 overall, ranked among in the top three of the conference standings, and presumably includes eight or so wins over NCAA Tournament teams. The home game loss against Butler last Friday was definitely a missed opportunity, but the Friars have definitely turned a corner. Alpha Diallo is finally getting (creating) good looks around the hoop; guard Maliek White has found consistent scoring; and the defense was successful in forcing opponents to take tough shots. A four-game winning streak featured some of the best two-point defense all season. That said, it’s an uphill climb to get to 12-6 — this team can’t afford any missed opportunities.

2. Marquette and Xavier are squaring off tonight and both stand at 1-3 heading into that game. Which team is more likely to right the ship and continue on the Tournament track?

JK: This is tough. Both teams have significant holes (interior offense for Marquette; shooting for Xavier) but Marquette probably has the higher ceiling and is therefore more likely to right the ship. Xavier is awkwardly constructed by lacking a true point guard, and aside from KyKy Tandy, you more or less know what you’re getting with this team. On the other hand, with Markus Howard consistently putting up 25-30 points per game, there’s a floor for Marquette that hopefully encourages more production from Brendan Bailey or Koby McEwen. But most of all, the team desperately needs Theo John to give something — anything — in the post. The 6’9″ big man has been saddled with foul trouble and awkwardly low efficiency around the hoop, contributing to an offense that ranks 338th (!) nationally in field goal conversions at the rim. No matter how much the defense has improved this season, interior offense is going to hold this team back.

We’re only about five weeks into the regular season and yet it feels like an eternity judging by how much has happened thus far. Between the risers and fallers, early season disappointments and pleasant surprises, the Big East has had no shortage of compelling storylines. Below, Big East writers Justin Kundrat and Brad Cavallaro regroup and recap several of the key questions the conference is facing going into the holidays.

With only a close loss at Baylor, Butler has emerged as a Big East contender (or even front-runner) by analytics and their body of work. Do you see the Bulldogs as a legitimate contender or just a team off to a hot start?

JK: With Seton Hall floundering and Villanova skirting by against inferior opponents, there’s no question in my mind that Butler is the top dog in the conference right now. The Bulldogs won’t overwhelm you with size or athleticism or shooting or lottery picks, but this team is as cohesive as any in the country. They remind me a bit of some of the Virginia teams in recent years, in that every game is played on Butler’s terms. The Bulldogs currently rank 338th nationally in tempo and opponents are getting just 16.7 percent of their shot attempts in transition, good for 12th nationally. Combine that with a defense that is elite in both defensive rebounding and discouraging perimeter shots and you have a recipe for success — there are no easy buckets with this team. On the other end, there are occasional concerns about the offense over-relying on Kamar Baldwin, but others have stepped up in recent games (here’s looking at you, Sean McDermott). And when opponents are scoring just 54.5 PPG, you don’t need multiple 20+ point scorers on the roster. Anyway, count me in as a buyer of Butler stock.

BC: I think at this point Butler is absolutely a contender. Between Seton Hall’s injuries and Xavier’s recent disappointing play, Butler and Villanova look like the clear front-runners in the Big East. While the Bulldogs do not have top-half conference talent, their excellent chemistry and buy-in from their role players has created a “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” scenario. While team synergy looks like the main reason for Butler’s early success, they are also receiving some great individual performances. Baldwin has taken the step from great player to star and the defense has been excellent with players like Aaron Thompson and Bryce Nze setting the tone. I think the most likely scenario is that Butler settles into the #15-#20 range nationally, but if they can get more from Jordan Tucker and Khalif Battle, the ceiling is even higher.

Seton Hall has disappointed, surrendering late game leads versus both Michigan State and Oregon? Can they back up their lofty preseason ranking and who emerges in Mamu’s absence?

Finally, conference tournament week is upon us. Big East microsite writers Justin Kundrat and Brian Otskey teamed up this week to break down several of the conference’s key questions heading into the Big East tournament.

BO: How concerned should we be by Marquette’s late season slide?

JK: I said last week that we shouldn’t be concerned — that it was just a late season stumble. And while a home loss to Georgetown had me rethinking that, I’m going to stand by it. Marquette was hampered by woeful offense in its initial three-game stretch, and completely turned things around on that end against Georgetown (its 1.14 points per possession was in line with its season average). I understand the tendency to worry after a four-game skid, though — particularly this time of year — but nothing has fundamentally changed with this team. Its problem appears to be mental. With a much improved defense to weather the poor shooting nights, things should course correct this week in New York.

BO: Did Seton Hall truly turn a corner last week heading into the postseason or was its more focused play a result of desperation?

JK: This is a team I will never figure out. Just when I started to buy in earlier this season, the Pirates sputtered to a 3-5 start in conference play; and when I wrote them off at 7-9 a few weeks ago, they proceeded to collect consecutive wins against Marquette and Villanova. The crazy thing is that the two games followed completely different narratives. Against Marquette, Seton Hall was down by 13 points with 10 minutes left before Myles Powell poured in 17 points in that span. It was a good win, but supported the theory that Seton Hall relies too heavily on Powell and cannot compete if other players are forced to score. Yet against Villanova, it was in fact the Pirates’ role players that propelled them to their third most efficient scoring game of the season. At their best, Seton Hall looks like a Top 25 team that can hang with anyone in college basketball, but its consistency gives me pause. Let’s see how this week turns out before making a final ruling.

With just about a month remaining until Selection Sunday, the race to secure an NCAA Tournament bid is on. The Big East as a whole is eating itself alive, so the next couple of games and the conference tournament will be critical in determining which teams are dancing come March. All figures below are from WarrenNolan.com.

Locks

• Marquette: 21-4 (10-2); NET: 19; SOS: 318
• Villanova: 20-6 (11-2); NET: 20; SOS: 16
• Analysis: These two teams have been a mainstay in the national polls in recent weeks and very little could happen to knock them out of NCAA Tournament consideration. Marquette is currently 7-3 against Quadrant 1 opponents, while Villanova is 3-4, and neither team has a Quadrant 3 or 4 loss on its resume. Both teams will be fighting for favorable seeding, with a best case scenario being a #3/#4 seed on Selection Sunday, which a Big East Tournament championship should provide. A slide by either, though, could push one to the #6/#7 seed line.

Should Be In

• St. John’s: 19-7 (7-6); NET: 46; SOS: 53. Analysis: The slope has been rather slippery for the Johnnies in recent weeks, but a pair of wins over Marquette kept them afloat before solidifying themselves by overcoming a 14-point deficit against Villanova this weekend. Now, St. John’s is 5-4 in its Quadrant 1 games and its neutral floor win over Atlantic 10 leader VCU has aged well. Chris Mullin‘s team has a fairly favorable schedule remaining and should be favored in all five games. Even if the Red Storm stumble, a 3-2 record in those games should be sufficient regardless of their Big East tournament performance. This team’s performance has highly match-up dependent this season, but the NCAA Tournament needs Shamorie Ponds…

The Big East appears headed toward a down season after many conference teams lost valuable upperclassmen to graduation and the NBA Draft. Players like St. John’s Shamorie Ponds, Seton Hall’s Myles Powell and Providence’s Alpha Diallo have, as a result, taken their games to the next level to become this season’s stars. But their jumps were anticipated as they all have shown flashes of future greatness throughout their collegiate careers.

What about the players who have broken out this season? This article will instead analyze six players whose strong performances to date were not expected this season. The list is ordered from least surprising to most surprising.

6. Michael Nzei, PF, SR, Seton Hall – 10.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 73% FG

Nzei has been a valuable piece for Seton Hall throughout his career, averaging at least 13 minutes per game since his freshman season. He has mostly served as the first big man off the bench (behind Ish Sanogo or Angel Delgado), but he has emerged from the role of energetic rebounder to a legitimate offensive threat this season. This increased aggressiveness can be seen through a significant scoring increase (3.9 to 10.6 PPG) that is predicated on his quickness and ability to blow past opposing big men. Nzei’s hot start can also be attributed to Taurean Thompson’s disappointing play, as the former Syracuse power forward has clearly fallen behind Nzei on the depth chart.

5. LJ Figueroa, Wing, SO, St. John’s – 15.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 44% 3FG

Figueroa looked like he was set to become one of the best sixth men in college basketball, but Chris Mullin’s decision to go small thrust the sophomore wing into the starting lineup. Once Sedee Keita was sidelined with an injury, Figueroa has faced virtually no competition and has taken full advantage of his opportunity. The former JuCo transfer has seamlessly transitioned to the Big East by averaging 15.3 PPG and 7.7 RPG through the Red Storm’s 9-0 start. Figueroa is a good athlete who provides excellent floor spacing as a small-ball four, and he projects as a key component of St. John’s breakout season.

4. AJ Reeves, Wing, FR, Providence – 14.2 PPG, 45% 3FG, 50% FG

Reeves was a top 50 recruit so expectations for his performance were already high, but few observers could have expected such a strong start for the Providence freshman. His knockdown three-point shooting ability has been as good as advertised (45% 3FG), but he has also shown an ability to attack the basket and score on straight-line drives. Reeves has been extremely effective in transition too, where he can finish above the rim or use his soft touch to play through contact. Like most freshmen, however, Reeves’ defense is inconsistent (at best), but once he develops better fundamentals on that end of the floor, the sky is the limit for the young wing. Reeves is currently out of the lineup with a foot injury so hopefully he can maintain his early stellar play when he returns next month.

3. Damien Jefferson,Wing, SO, Creighton – 11.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 61% 3FG

The power forward position was Creighton’s biggest preseason concern after its previous starter, Ronnie Harrell, surprisingly transferred. Would the Bluejays decide to go small with Connor Cashaw or Mitch Ballock at the position; or would they go big and slide Martin Krampejl there? It turned out that New Mexico transfer Damien Jefferson not only had the perfect skill set for the position, but also the talent back it up. The sophomore only averaged 5.3 PPG as a freshman with the Lobos two seasons ago, but he has more than doubled his scoring output to date at his new school. Jefferson is a big athletic forward who can really defend and is off to a scorching hot start from three-point range (61% 3FG) this season.

2. Paul Jorgensen, SG, SR, Butler – 17.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 43% 3FG

Jorgensen was in and out of the Butler starting lineup last year but has become an offensive focal point for the Bulldogs this season. There were plenty of shots available after Kelan Martin graduated and the senior has taken complete advantage of that opportunity. Primarily playing the small forward slot next to Kamar Baldwin and Aaron Thompson, Jorgensen relies on his long-range jumper and ability to put the ball on the floor to create opportunities — allowing for a big improvement for someone who averaged only 10.2 PPG last season. Baldwin is likely to lead Butler in scoring by the end of the season, but the surprising Jorgensen should be a close second.

1. Ty-Shon Alexander, G, SO, Creighton- 18.3 PPG, 3.1 APG, 44% 3FG

Alexander has been the most surprising player in the Big East to date. He played a substantial role at the point guard slot for the Bluejays as a freshman, ,splitting the role with Davion Mintz. Now that Khyri Thomas is in the NBA and Marcus Foster has graduated, however, Alexander has flourished at his natural position off the ball. The sophomore still frequently operates with the ball in his hands, but he does so now as the primary scorer rather than someone balancing scoring and distributing. He is a shifty and explosive combo guard who can finish at the rim in addition to hitting perimeter jumpers, making him an extremely dynamic offensive force. His jump from 5.5 PPG a season ago to 18.3 PPG this year has been eye-opening.

With nearly a month of Big East basketball already in the books, there has been no shortage of action in a non-conference schedule full of surprising upsets and gut-wrenching defeats. For those who haven’t been following very closely, you may have been surprised to see preseason bottom dweller Creighton nearly toppling #1 Gonzaga or the defending national champs dropping a home game to Furman. So as we inch closer to the holidays and conference play, below are some of the key Big East takeaways from the last few weeks.

Furman Logged One of the Upsets of the Early Season at Villanova (USA Today Images)

• There isn’t a bad team in the conference. DePaul has made its name over the last decade as the Big East’s doormat, finishing among the bottom three in the standings in every season back to 2008. While the Blue Demons are still far from conference contention, Dave Leitao‘s group has raced off to an early 5-1 start that includes an overtime win over a solid Penn State club. The offseason delivered the two things DePaul needed most: shooting and size in the forms of transfers Jalen Coleman-Lands (Illinois) and Femi Olujobi (North Carolina A&T). Now, with a balance of size, experience and backcourt play, the Blue Demons’ offense finally has some cohesiveness. Expect this team to easily surpass its 4-14 conference win total from last season.
• Creighton’s offense didn’t regress as expected — rather, it might be just as good, if not better, than last season. This claim might seem far-fetched given that the Bluejays lost 60 percent of their scoring output, but they are right on pace at 1.16 points per possession eight games into the season. Interestingly, the blazing fast offense that attempted 29.4 percent of its shots in transition a season ago (seventh nationally) is now content to play in the half-court, with a middle-of-the-road tempo that ranks 155th in transition frequency. Neverthetheless, between sophomore guard Ty-Shon Alexander’s explosion onto the scene (the clear front-runner for the Big East’s most improved player) and the steady improvements of Damien Jefferson and Marcus Zegarowski, Greg McDermott’s team is the biggest surprise in the conference so far this season.

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Despite losing its three leading scorers from last season, Xavier was expected to remain relevant in the Big East race. Trevon Bluiett, JP Macura and Kerem Kanter all averaged double-figure points for the Musketeers last season, but returnees like Naji Marshall and Quentin Goodin were anticipated to fill the void. No one thought Xavier was set to replicate last season’s #1 seed level of success, but a sixth straight NCAA Tournament bid seemed completely attainable. With a 1-2 trip to the Maui Invitational now in the rear view, however, the Musketeers have squandered a golden opportunity to build their non-conference resume.

Xavier’s 1-2 Trip to Maui Puts a Significant Strain on Its NCAA At-Large Resume (USA Today Images)

For most of last week’s first round game against Auburn, it looked like Xavier had hit the jackpot. Ultimately, however, the Tigers prevailed in overtime with dynamic guards Jared Harper and Bryce Brown combining for 51 points in an overtime victory. Xavier was fortunate enough to have another opportunity for a quality win in the consolation round, though, as San Diego State should remain in the season-long discussion for a bid out of the Mountain West. The Musketeers built a substantial lead in the early portion of the first half of that game, but the Aztecs stormed back late and earned a five-point win. That loss meant Xavier was relegated to the seventh place game where they stopped the bleeding by defeating a struggling Illinois team. Given that the Fighting Illini will likely finish in the bottom three of the Big Ten this season, the win didn’t have much long-term at-large value. Xavier shot the ball extremely well in that game, but they were sloppy with the ball far too often.

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After splitting the Gavitt Games in the first three years of its existence, the Big Ten has dominated in year four. The pair of teams projected at the top of the Big East this season — Villanova and Marquette — provided little resistance against Michigan and Indiana earlier this week. Meanwhile, Xavier and Creighton dropped home games to Wisconsin and Ohio State while Seton Hall proved to be no match for Nebraska. As it turns out, Georgetown and DePaul are the only Big East teams to win thus far, knocking off Illinois and Penn State (but both were without one of their top two players).

Steve Wojchiechowski is in the midst of a rebuild at Marquette. (Mark Hoffman/The Journal Sentinel)

On paper, these match-ups looked fairly even, but the Big Ten has proved to be the superior conference at this early point. Normally, these conference challenges need to be taken with a grain of salt as they are only one benchmark to compare conference strength. However, after the Big Ten’s beat-down of the Big East this week, not many reasonable people would think the Big East is the superior league. If St. John’s falls to Rutgers on Friday evening, it will cap off an embarrassing week for the conference.

Even though this has been a horrible start, it is still not time to panic. Even if the Big Ten is the better league, that does not mean the Big East won’t improve. Earning 28 NCAA Tournament berths in the last five years gives it the benefit of the doubt. Villanova has won two National Championships in the last three seasons; Xavier has an Elite Eight appearance under its belt: Providence has made five straight NCAA Tournaments; and Butler has consistently advanced in the postseason. These are great basketball programs that have proven resilient time and time again.

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