It’s a big day. The biggest ever at Allen Fieldhouse? That’s a tough call, according to coach Bill Self. From the Lawrence-Journal World:

“No, probably not,” Self said, asked if it was the biggest home game in his tenure at KU. “We’ve had other games where we had to win that game to win the league. In fans’ minds and our players’ minds since they beat us the first time when we felt we had them down the stretch, I believe it’s probably in everybody else’s minds, maybe other than the coaches’, the biggest game we’ve had.”

Bill Self This Isn't the Biggest Game at AFH History, But He Understands Why It's Touted That Way

Define the game however you’d like. At the very least, it’s a top five matchup between two teams vying for a Big 12 regular-season championship at one of college basketball’s most historic venues. Yet just about everybody is writing the Tigers off at Allen Fieldhouse, perhaps for rational reasons. They haven’t won in Lawrence in 13 years — January 24, 1999, to be exact, when point guard Brian Grawer scored 18 points and the Tigers limited arch-enemy Ryan Robertson to 1-10 shooting. Unless you’re a Kansas or Missouri fan, you’ve either never heard of those players or faintly remember their names simply because you followed college basketball at the time. That’s how long its been since Missouri last won a road game against Kansas, and it will have a difficult time handling the energy of the home crowd in the Border War finale on Saturday.

Rightfully so, the Tigers are an underdog. But even after a discouraging effort at home in a loss to Kansas State earlier this week, it’s not as though Missouri needs some sort of miracle to win this game. Frank Haith‘s team is ranked in the top five for a reason, after all, and it already owns one win against the Jayhawks in Columbia after a late-game flurry. Who’s to say it can’t happen again?

The Tigers do not have much margin for error, but they’ve got a shot if they do the following:

1. Don’t be afraid of Jeff Withey: With Jordan Henriquez manning the paint on Tuesday against Kansas State, the Tigers shied away from the seven-footer and jacked up ill-advised three-pointers. Along with porous defense, that’s what cost them the game: an 8-26 performance from beyond the arc as a team. We can’t simply explain that with the mysterious “one-of-those-nights” theories of cold shooting. That’s a cop out. Missouri lost because it executed poorly and took bad shots. Jeff Withey is even better than Henriquez from a shot-blocking standpoint, so it’s important for the Tigers to attack him immediately. Get him in foul trouble and make him work. He’ll get his fair share of blocks, but rushed three-pointers aren’t going to get the job done. Getting to the rim will.
2. Good point guard play: Phil Pressey and Michael Dixon make this team go. Marcus Denmon may be the star with the capability to take over a game (just refer to the first meeting as an example), but the point guard tandem must keep this team focused and steady. The Tigers won earlier this month because Dixon and Pressey made better decisions than Tyshawn Taylor in the final three minutes of the game.
3. Don’t fall behind early: If Kansas starts the game on a convincing run and gets this crowd going, things could get ugly in a hurry. That’s happened to a lot of teams over the years at Allen Fieldhouse, including Missouri. If the Tigers can match the Jayhawks energy and the intensity of the building, though, they are more than talented enough to pull off a victory. In Mike Anderson‘s first season in 2006-07, his undermanned team quieted the crowd by running efficient offense in the first half and nearly pulled off a monumental upset. On Saturday, we’re talking about the third-ranked team in the nation, not a team that eventually wound up missing the post-season. The first five minutes of the game are so important here for Missouri.
4. Use Ricardo Ratliffe and keep him out of foul trouble: Again, Missouri has little room for error, especially with Ratliffe. It will already have trouble defending Thomas Robinson as it is, but if he’s on the bench, kiss this game goodbye. It’s key for the Tigers to get him involved early and let him go to work. Against Baylor in Waco, that was the recipe for a road win, and it’s the recipe here, too.

We’re not in the business of making predictions, but let’s hope for one heck of a matchup on Saturday. College basketball fans deserve to witness a historic moment in the game’s history. And make no mistake, Saturday is historic, no matter what anybody else says.

Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the A-10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @(vbtnBlog)

Note: Standings are up-to-date but games earlier in the week have already taken place

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was:

Points per Possession Margins Through February 19

Ken Pomeroy has shown Saint Louis as the top team since late December, but college basketball’s stats guru looks at an overall margin as an indirect part of his formulation. For the past four weeks Temple posted the largest positive margin derived from conference games.

Saint Louis and Temple were not the only two squads whose conference points per possession margins moved closer to alignment with their overall numbers. Count Richmond among those whose skew was rectified last week. The Spiders stubbornly posted a +0.006 points per possession margin even though the team was three games below 0.500 in conference play. Though the Spiders posted a “positive” 1-1 week, their points per possession margin slid into negative territory, consistent with their record. Though throughout the conference the records and points per possession margins do not align exactly with the won-loss conference rankings (see Duquesne above), the alignment is the most consistent in the three seasons I have tracked the numbers. Identifying and explaining the discrepancies will be one of the bullet points for next week.

A Look at Conference Honors Two Weeks Out

The race for conference Player of the Year was not a serious contest in 2011. Tu Holloway won recognition either as Player of the Week or at least a nod in nine of the sixteen weeks the conference posted weekly honors. Honored as Player of the Week six times, Holloway’s nearest competitors had not gathered more than two, one-third the number of times Holloway was honored.

This season Holloway has garnered a nod a far more modest two POW citations through the first fourteen weeks, one less than the other preseason favorite, Andrew Nicholson. Nicholson and Temple senior Ramone Moore are tied at three for the most Player of the Week citations. Nicholson has also garnered seven mentions in the weekly announcements, four more than Moore. Though the Bonnies have not had a season as successful as they anticipated in October, Nicholson has posted good numbers for his senior campaign and if the voting were held today Nicholson would have to get the nod with an outside chance to Moore.

Temple’s run so far is a point in Moore’s favor, but the field is evenly matched so far and the last two weeks of the season could play heavily in the voter’s minds. Expect a very competitive vote for Player of the Year and first and second All-conference teams, as the voters draw from a pool that includes Holloway, Nicholson and Moore, with Chris Gaston (Fordham), Tyreek Duren (La Salle), Chaz Willliams (Massachusetts), Chris Braswell (Charlotte), Brian Conklin (St. Louis) and Khalif Wyatt (Temple) all in the hunt for first team recognition.

Where a team finishes may play less a role in the voter’s minds when they vote for Rookie of the Year, a point that tilt that contest more in the direction of Richmond (Kendall Anthony), Rhode Island (Jon Holton) or Charlotte (Pierra Henry). La Salle’s Jerrell Wright, and Temple’s Anthony Lee, two freshmen who were thrown into the deep end and exceeded all expectations will gather votes from those who believe where a team finishes can be held (or credited) should influence the balloting. Those five along with fellow freshmen Alex Gavrilovic (Dayton) and Mike Powell will fight over the five spots on the first Team.

Power Rankings

• Temple continues to roll through their conference schedule but has yet to regain a spot in the Top 25.
• Saint Louis and Massachusetts continue to nip at the Owls’ heels, while five others (Xavier, La Salle, Saint Bonaventure and Duquesne) battle for the conference’s last bye seed.
• Most bracketology sites put either two or three teams in the field (Temple, Saint Louis plus one other), so games played between Xavier, La Salle, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, Massachusetts and Dayton will carry extra conference implications.

1. Temple (21-5, 10-2, #22 AP) – Temple continued their run with another 2-0 week … oh wait, I wrote that last week. Still true this week though, as the two latest victims included conference challenger Saint Bonaventure and a middling Duquesne squad that has yet to catch the lightening that ignited last season’s squad. The margins of victory were comfortable (+6 on the road versus the Bonnies and +19 at home versus the Dukes) and Juan Fernandez’s numbers versus both (16 points, 4 assists in 38 minutes versus Saint Bonaventure, 20 points, 6 assists in 30 minutes against Duquesne) were good enough to earn him an Honorable Mention from the conference on Monday (2/20). The Owls have found a good rhythm to this point in the season and the priority will be to keep the front court healthy (that’s you Michael Eric) and the guards involved. The last four games offer a few chances for a slide, but three of the opponents are mirrors, closing out their home-away obligations imposed by the conference.  The bigger challenge for Temple may be remembering what to pack for an away game. Of the ten games scheduled for February and March, the Owls leave Philadelphia to play only three. A look ahead:This is a mini-Decision Week for Temple, even though they can take the SEPTA to each of the games. First up is La Salle (Wednesday 2/22), and then Saint Joseph’s (Saturday 2/25). Neither game is “in the bag”, as Ken Pomeroy projects two losses for the Owls, each by a single point.
   

   Juan Fernandez and Temple Continue To Set The Pace (AP)

2. Saint Louis (22-5, 10-3) –The Billikens kept pace with the Owls last week, winning both of their … oh crap, another repeat sentence. The opponents were less challenging than the two Philadelphia teams (St. Joseph’s and La Salle) Rick Majerus’ team faced the week before, as the victory margins, both by double digits, attest. Saint Louis disposed of a young Richmond squad by 14, 64-50. The score does not surprise those who know both coaches favor a deliberate approach to their offenses. The Fordham games was decided by 20 (66-46), a margin consistent with the relative standing of the two teams. Cody Ellis earned a conference Honorable Mention, the second in two weeks, for this performances through this stretch. Though the Australian has not emerged as the scoring machine some pundits predicted when he joined the program in 2009, his 12-25 run from outside the arc in his last four games has to be welcomed by the staff and necessary if Saint Louis is to continue to show multiple inside and outside scoring threats.
3. Xavier (17-9, 8-4) – The Musketeers won their only game last week, an 86-83 overtime barn burner against long time in state (and conference) rival Dayton. The win avenges an earlier loss to the Flyers. Is Xavier back on track for a postseason bid? Definitely … maybe. Which is better than a definitely no. Tu Holloway drew conference accolades (co-Player of the Week), an uncomfortably rare development this season. A secondary indication of how the X-Men have struggled this season may be inferred from the fact that Holloway has been recognized only twice as Player of Week to this point in the season, well off his pace of six POWs to this point in 2010-11. A look ahead: Xavier travels to Massachusetts for a rare Tuesday (2/21) conference game. This one is a showdown that may well influence the battle for the last two bye seeds to Atlantic City. The Musketeers then return home to host Richmond on Saturday (2/25). Xavier’s postseason (NCAA) hopes clearly hinge on a 2-0 week. Wins against Massachusetts and Richmond will not move them up on the S-Curve, but one or more losses will definitely move them down.
4. Massachusetts (18-8, 7-5) –The Minutemen dropped their only game this past week when they lost to La Salle 71-72, on Saturday. This puts UMass out another ½ game from the conference lead with four games still to play. Derek Kellogg’s job, barring a second late season collapse, is probably secure for another season. No longer listed in the pool of teams for the NCAA, a run through the conference tournament may be Massachusetts’ last best chance for a Dance Ticket. The road to 20 wins in the regular season will be difficult, as the Minutemen still have games against Xavier and Temple, not to mention a road date at Dayton. A look ahead: Massachusetts hosts Xavier Tuesday (2/21) to be followed by a road date with Dayton Saturday (2/25). At stake is a bye bid to Atlantic City and a possible NIT bid. Beating Xavier will not get UMass to the Dance, but losing will definitely put the #3/#4 seed at risk to a late season push by La Salle, Saint Joseph’s or Saint Bonaventure. La Salle and Saint Joseph’s both hold tie-breakers over Massachusetts.
5. La Salle (18-9, 7-5) – The Explorers rebounded from a costly 0-2 week the second week in February with a 1-0 week just concluded. Dr. John Giannini’s squad handed the Minutemen a one point (72-71) home loss that damaged Massachusetts’ chances for a bye seed to the Atlantic-10 Tournament and all but closed out their hopes for a bid to the NCAA. La Salle has matched the high for wins (18) in the Giannini Era at 18, a feat accomplished by the teams in 2005-06 and 2008-09. Though Giannini hinted at addition by subtraction in the post game interview last March in Atlantic City, the results, achieved without the graduated seniors, Aaric Murray (transferred right after the 2010-11 season) and Cole Stefan (left school in August) has to be very gratifying for the La Salle faithful. A look ahead: Can the Explorers keep the momentum going in the right direction? They have a huge test coming Wednesday (2/22) against cross-town rival Temple. On Saturday (2/25) they travel to New York City for a game against Fordham. A 2-0 week would seal a winning conference record along with a 20 game win season, the first since 1991-92.
6. Saint Joseph’s (18-10, 8-5) – Phil Martelli’s squad put together a nice two-game run last week with wins over Rhode Island Wednesday and George Washington Saturday. The Joe’s will have a solid chance to ease the memory of a 20 game loss season in 2010-11 with a 20 game win season in 2011-12, the best turnaround stories in the conference this season. A look ahead: Notching numbers 19 and 20 however will not be easy, as the regular season slate offers only games with Richmond (Wednesday 2/22), Temple (Saturday 2/25) and Saint Bonaventure (2/29). The Temple game provides an opportunity for a signature win, but the Bonaventure game holds crucial tie-breaker implications for the conference tournament.
7. St. Bonaventure (14-10, 7-5) – Mike Schmidt’s crew posted their second consecutive 1-1 record this past week, dropping a six point decision on the road to Temple on Wednesday, balanced by a 20 point 81-61, win over Rhode Island, on Saturday. The six point road loss may bolster their credentials for the NIT selection committee, but putting together a winning run to close out the season would be even better. A look ahead: Road games with Fordham on Wednesday (2/22) and Charlotte on Saturday (2/25) should pad the win column, but the closeout week which features games with Saint Joseph’s and La Salle will be more important, if they can win.
8. Duquesne (15-11, 6-6) – The Dukes rebounded from their loss to Saint Bonaventure with a win over Fordham, 77-67, Wednesday, but ended the week at 0.500 when they dropped their Saturday game in Philadelphia to Temple, 59-78. A look ahead: A showdown with Dayton Wednesday provides Ron Everhart’s squad with the chance to put some distance between them and next-in-line Dayton. On Saturday they will travel to Washington D.C. for a game against George Washington.
   

   Don't Count Out Ron Everhart's Duquesne Crew In The A-10 Tournament (AP)

9. Dayton (16-10, 6-6) – Archie Miller’s squad easily disposed of Charlotte on Wednesday (75-65), but dropped their road game with Xavier last Saturday (2/18) by three points in overtime. And it could be costly if Charlotte wins. The Flyers can regain momentum Wednesday (2/22) when they travel to Pittsburgh for a game with Duquesne. A win would put them squarely in the top half of the conference going into the home stretch. A look ahead: Though a far cry from their fast start, rebounding to close the season strongly would be a good sign for next season. And this could be the week, as Dayton will host Massachusetts on Saturday (2/25) in a game that could finish the Minutemen’s hopes for a bye seed to Atlantic City.
10. Richmond (14-14, 5-8) – Richmond lost to Saint Louis (64-50) but rebounded with a one point win over Charlotte Saturday (53-52) to tally a 1-1 week and earn the tie-breaker over Charlotte. A look ahead: The Spiders take a two game road trip this week, first to Philadelphia for a game with Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday (2/22), and then to Cincinnati for a game with Xavier Saturday (2/25).
11. Charlotte (12-13, 4-8) –Charlotte’s two game road trip ended badly as they lost to Dayton (65-75) on Wednesday (2/15) and to Richmond last Saturday (52-53). The bright spot of the road trip was that they took Richmond down to the last possession before folding. A look ahead: The 49ers will host George Washington on Wednesday in a possible tie-breaker game for #11 in conference standings. On Saturday they will host Saint Bonaventure and the chance to play spoiler for the Bonnies’ chances for a bye seed to the conference tournament.
12. George Washington (9-17, 4-8) – Mike Lonergan’s squad dropped their only game of the week last Saturday when they lost to Saint Joseph’s at the Smith Center, 73-66. A look ahead: The Colonials swing back into a two game-a-week cycle with games against Charlotte on Wednesday and Duquesne on Saturday.
13. Fordham (9-16, 2-10) – Fordham lost games to Duquesne and Saint Louis last week. At this point the priorities have to be player development. Coach Tom Pecora has two promising freshmen back court contributors in Devon McMillan and Bryan Smith, both of whom have earned conference citations this season. McMillan has an outside chance to earn All-Conference Rookie Team honors. A showdown for #13 place in the conference standings is on for February 29, when Fordham travel to Kingston, RI for a game with Rhode Island.
14. Rhode Island (5-23, 2-11) – Last week was another 0-2 week for the Runnin’ Rams as they dropped games Saint Joseph’s (80-69) and Saint Bonaventure (81-61). All but eliminated from the conference tournament, the Rams have a date with Fordham on February 29 to break the tie for last place.

Looking Ahead

A few of the games I will be following this week (note: first two games on docket already occurred):

• Xavier at Massachusetts – Look up Must Win in the Webster and it will list this rare (for an A-10 conference game) Tuesday night showdown. Coach Derek Kellogg’s job ought to be secure by now, but the Minutemen are scratching hard for a bye seed to the A-10 Tournament, and still have games with Temple and Dayton before the seeds are set. This is a solid chance to chalk a quality home win over one of the Atlantic-10’s brand names. The X-Men are located in that uncomfortable eight (Last Four In/First Four Out) in virtually all bracketology reports the past two weeks. A win in Amherst will not get them in, but a loss could very well put them in an elimination slot with Saint Louis (the loser in Atlantic City gets no NCAA invitation). [Note – Xavier lost by seven, clouding the Musketeers’ chances for an at-large bid to the NCAA and a bye seed for the conference tournament. More next update]
• Temple at La Salle – The Explorers should give the Owls a more competitive game than last season (or 2010, or 2009 for that matter). The game will spotlight the back courts for both teams, with Williams and Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore (and Khalif Wyatt) squaring off against Tyreek Duren and Ramon Galloway (and Earl Pettis), but the game may be decided by how much Michael Eric and Anthony Leecan contribute in the low post. Ken Pomeroy projects a one point La Salle win, but given the usual four point contribution from the home court, this game is definitely a toss-up. [Temple won by one in overtime, all but sealing a bye seed to the conference tournament and solidifying their hold on #1 in the conference.]
  

  Saint Joseph's Fans Hope Carl Jones Has A Reason To Hold Up His Arms When The Eagles Face Crosstown Foe Temple On Saturday (AP)

• Temple at Saint Joseph’s, Saturday 2/25, 7:00 pm – The Big 5 was decided, but both teams need this game. The Hawks (according to Ken Pomeroy) are favored by a point, making this the second toss-up game for the Owls this week. Like La Salle, Saint Joseph’s offers an outstanding backcourt in Carl Jones and Langston Galloway, two who should match up well against Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore. The key however, may well be how Michael Eric and Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson rebound against Ronald Roberts, Halil Kanasevic and C. J. Aiken.
• Massachusetts at Dayton, Saturday 2/25, 6:00 pm – The NCAA is off the table for both teams but a bye seed to the Atlantic-10 Tournament and a possible NIT bid are still in play. Dayton Coach Archie Miller had magic early in conference play, something the Flyers would very much like to recapture going into the last two weeks of the season. Closing out the regular season has been a nightmare for Coach Derek  Kellogg, as Massachusetts has gone 3-10 since 2008-09 in play during the last two weeks of conference play.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was

• Long Beach State Falls on Buzzer Beater: After leading Creighton for most of the game including the entire second half, Long Beach State had their hearts broken when Bluejays guard Antoine Young hit a go-ahead fade away jumper that swished through the basket with 0.3 seconds remaining in the game. There were many positive takeaways from the effort including 49ers point guard Casper Ware drawing more national attention with the game being televised on ESPN2. The Creighton crowd even rushed the court (prematurely, as it turned out), showing a certain amount of respect for Long Beach. Nonetheless, it’s a devastating loss on paper for Long Beach, who would have been a likely at-large with a win in Omaha. Now, they most likely have to win the Big West Tournament to go dancing.
• Big West Goes 6-3 in BracketBusters: Even including Long Beach State’s late disappointment, the Big West all in all had a pretty solid collective effort in this year’s BracketBuster match-ups. Other notable wins included UCSB’s 72-64 triumph on the road at Utah State, where the Aggies are notoriously tough to beat (even in a down year), Pacific’s 66-64 win against Idaho State on an overtime buzzer beater, and UC Davis battling back from a 21-point deficit to take down Northern Arizona 69-65. Most of these games had little actual impact on each team’s 2011-12 remaining season, but a win for conference pride and RPI benefits is still a nice extra credit.
• UCI Alum to Coach NBA All-Star Game: This one is a bit removed from current Big West play, but still worth a mention nonetheless. Former Anteater Scott Brooks, the current Oklahoma City Thunder head coach, has been named the coach for the West squad for the upcoming NBA All-Star Game. Brooks and his staff earned this honor due to the Thunder owning the conference’s best record at the break. Hopefully, Brooks can continue to bring glory to UC Irvine and the Big West through his successes in the NBA.

The Beach Has The Regular Season Title All Wrapped Up, But Will It Need A Conference Tournament Championship To Go Dancing? (Stephen Carr/Long Beach Press-Telegram)

Power Rankings

1. Long Beach State (20-7, 13-0) – The 49ers officially clinched at least a share of the Big West regular season title after beating UC Santa Barbara soundly for the second time this season. Despite the loss to Creighton which could have been the icing on the cake in terms of an at-large bid, Long Beach is clearly playing like they can smell blood. Call it a second peak or just a season-long determined effort, but it’s clear that Long Beach State is playing as well as they have played all season with the finish line in sight.
2. Cal State Fullerton (18-7, 9-3) – The Titans are now firmly in second place in both the real Big West standings and in these power rankings. After beating Montana State convincingly in the BracketBuster, the Titans rallied from an eight-point deficit with 4:29 to play against Pacific to win 69-68. Coach Bob Burton’s deep squad is the one group of offensive talent in the Big West that can give Long Beach State a run for their money. Their 14th in the nation PPG at 78.8 and 11th best field goal percentage at 49% will be put on the line in an epic regular season finale against Long Beach State at Titan Gym.
3. UC Santa Barbara (15-9, 9-4) – In case we haven’t touted Gaucho senior Orlando Johnson quite enough in this space, let us be abundantly clear: Johnson is a superb talent, the Big West’s best NBA prospect by a comfortable margin. Johnson is about to break the UCSB all-time career scoring record, despite the fact that he will only have played three season in his Santa Barbara career. In other words, no other Gaucho player has scored more in four years than Johnson’s total after three. Quite impressive. That being said, UCSB’s second disappointing loss to Long Beach State this season has many fans and critics doubting Bob Williams’ ability to guide his team to a third straight NCAA Tournament. Then again, UCSB fared poorly against the 49ers in last year’s regular season as well, before beating them in the Big West Tournament.
4. Pacific (11-15, 6-7) – The divide between the top three teams and the bottom six in the Big West has never been greater. The Tigers became the second team to lose to lowly UC Davis this season, putting up a putrid effort in a 73-64 loss that highlighted how ineffective Pacific could be on an off-night. Granted, the Aggies are finally turning things around a bit, but one of the top three teams in this league would never lose to this year’s Davis team. At the same time, the Tigers do have their good nights, including the near upset against Cal State Fullerton on Thursday. Another example: Trevin Harris’ epic OT buzzer-beating three-pointer against Idaho State. Which Tiger team will show up in March is anyone’s guess.
5. Cal Poly (15-13, 6-7) – The Mustangs are my pick for most disappointing team in the Big West this season. The worst thing is that over the last couple games, the Mustangs have appeared to completely lose their defensive identity that served them so well earlier in the year. They allowed the Matadors, the worst shooting team in the league (below 40 percent) to shoot at a 57 percent clip in a bad 94-81loss at Northridge. The Mustangs followed that up with an 81-73 defeat at the hands of a mediocre Northern Colorado team in the BracketBuster. In that game, Bears freshman guard Tevin Svihovec, who averages about 10 points per game, exploded for a career-high 34 points. David Hanson and Chris Eversley keep scoring at a steady pace, but something is obviously amiss.
6. UC Riverside (13-15, 6-8) – It seems like ages ago that a surprisingly competitive Highlander team came a free throw short of beating Long Beach State. After being beaten by Cal State Fullerton in a game that wasn’t close, UCR managed to pull out a grind-it-out win against Southern Utah in the BracketBuster despite missing starters Robert Smith and BJ Shearry, both whom were out with concussions. UCR followed that up with another ugly game which saw them squeak by Cal State Northridge, with an offense that UCR head coach Jim Wooldridge described as “like pulling teeth.”
7. UC Irvine (10-17, 5-8) – The Anteaters reached the ten-win mark on the season when they defeated Eastern Washington 78-73 in their BracketBuster game. At the beginning of the season, some fans would have been satisfied with such a mark for this young group, but it’s clear that coach Russell Turner demands more. Turner has refused to sugarcoat things in postgame interviews, stressing the need for UCI to establish a winning culture. Still, an ugly 85-62 loss to UCSB suggests that UCI has pretty much reached their peak on the season. They were able to beat EWU despite turning the ball over 23 times and shooting 48 percent from the foul line, but such a sloppy effort will not cut it in the Big West Tournament.
8. Cal State Northridge (7-19, 3-11) – The Matadors keep on grinding and falling short at the end. The Matadors actually owned a 32-23 lead at halftime against Fresno State in the BracketBuster game before faltering in the second half, losing 62-49. The aforementioned loss to UCR was a close game throughout as well. At least CSUN can hang their hat on a solid win over Cal Poly, where five different players scored in double digits and the team as a whole shot 57 percent from the field.
9. UC Davis (4-23, 2-11) – Don’t look now, but the Aggies are finally showing some signs of life. After losing 21 of their first 22 games on the season, Coach Jim Les’ group has won three of their past five. A nine-point win over Pacific is definitely UC Davis’ best win on the season, avenging an ugly 16-point loss earlier this season. Davis even snapped a 15-game road losing streak when they charged back from a 21-point deficit against Northern Arizona to beat them 70-65. Harrison DuPont was the catalyst in that game, scoring 19 points off the bench for UC Davis.

Looking Ahead
The two most interesting things left on the Big West conference schedule are Long Beach State’s last three games in their quest for a perfect 16-0 conference slate and the battle for 4th through 7th place in seeding. The 49ers face UC Riverside and UCI, two teams that have stepped up to the plate against Long Beach in recent times, as well as second place Cal State Fullerton, which promises to be an entertaining conclusion to the regular season.

Cal Poly, Pacific, UC Riverside and UC Irvine are all within one game of each other in the battle for mediocrity. Fourth and fifth place get to play each other in the first round of the Big West Tournament, while sixth and seventh are doomed to likely face Cal State Fullerton and UCSB. An extra day in the postseason means an extra game to play in the Honda Center.

Caught on Film
This week, we bring you a pair of buzzer beaters from the BracketBuster weekend:

• Creighton’s Antoine Young working on Casper Ware and TJ Robinson to get the game-winning bucket.

• Trevin Harris’ epic hanging-in-the-air three to beat Idaho State.

John Templon is the RTC correspondent for America East. You can also find his musings online at NYC Buckets or on Twitter @nybuckets.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was

• Binghamton Breaks Through: The Bearcats sure picked a good time to win their first game of the season. After starting 0-26 they took down Vermont 57-53 and the students rushed the court. Robert Mansell scored 18 and Ben Dickson added 16 for Binghamton. The Bearcats led by as many as 12 points during the game, by far the most this season, and held on for the victory.
• Albany All Banged Up: Will Brown’s team is hurting. Just seven players got on the court during the Great Danes’ BracketBusters game against Rider, which Albany won. Guys sitting on the bench included Gerardo Suero and Logan Aronhalt – Albany’s top two scorers – and Luke Devlin. Devlin and Aronhalt are battling knee problems, while Suero missed the game against Rider because of a case of shingles. Suero and Aronhalt both returned in a 74-63 win over Binghamton. Suero played 25 minutes and Aronhalt nine. The plus side for Albany is that it will have had more than a week off before the conference quarterfinals for players to rest.
• Brackets Busted: The America East went a surprising 5-4 during BracketBusters. Stony Brook picked up a nice win over Northeastern, Vermont beat Niagara by 22 and Albany got a win over Rider. Overall, the conference did well and helped itself out by beating two teams from the CAA and three from the MAAC.

An RTC In Binghamton To Snap A 27-Game Losing Streak Proved Cathartic. (Daniel O'Connor/Binghamton Pipe Dream)

Power Rankings

1. Stony Brook (19-8, 13-2) – The Seawolves have done everything asked of them this season. Their two losses are on the road at the teams sitting in second and third in the power rankings. They’ll almost certainly have the #1 seed, a home championship game, if they make it through two rounds in Hartford, and a top seed in the NIT.
2. Vermont (19-11, 12-3) – How about we all agree that the Binghamton game didn’t happen? If that’s the case, the Catamounts should certainly be in this spot. Vermont had won 10 games in a row at that point. Odd note about the Catamounts: they have got both the best free throw percentage and free throw percentage against during conference play.
3. Boston University (15-15, 11-4) – There should still be serious concerns about BU’s frontcourt, even after an entire America East season. The Terriers lost to New Hampshire because they couldn’t contain Ferg Myrick. The Wildcats’ forward scored 15 points in the 56-54 win. BU finishes games strong, but the fact that Joe Jones’ team finds itself in situations where those heroics are necessary is disturbing.
4. Albany (18-13, 9-7) – The Great Danes’ defense needs to improve a lot. In the past 12 games Albany has held an opponent under a point per possession on three occasions. They are 6-6 in those games. Maybe getting players back from injury will help, but a number of Great Danes players don’t seem committed to the defensive end. Also, Albany just doesn’t have an answer for strong interior players. Ben Dickinson scored 21 points in Binghamton’s loss.
5. Maine (12-15, 6-9) – The good news is that Ken Pomeroy has said that teams can’t control an opposition’s three-point shooting percentage. The bad news is that Maine is still dealing with the effects of allowing opponents to shooting 39.1% from distance during conference play. What makes it even odder is that opponents are shooting just 42% on twos, that’s the best in the conference.
6. New Hampshire (12-15, 6-9) – The Wildcats were one of the hottest teams in the conference until a loss to Maine on Wednesday night having won four games in a row. Besides a blowout over Towson in BracketBusters all of the wins have been close. UNH has beaten Vermont, Albany, and BU so it could be a contender to reach the semifinals of the America East Tournament.
7. Hartford (8-20, 7-8) – Just two teams in the nation attempt more threes as a percentage of total shots than the Hawks. 46.4% of Hartford’s shots are threes. John Gallagher’s strategy might be daring, but it’s also been a disaster offensively. It did lately lead to a four-game winning streak over UMBC, Binghamton, Maine, and St. Peter’s.
8. UMBC (4-24, 3-12) – A porous defense that is the worst in the America East is holding this team back. UMBC’s four wins are over teams with a combined 14 wins and 12 of those belong to New Hampshire. (The other wins are Binghamton twice and Towson.) Boy does this team miss Chris De La Rosa. The star guard isn’t playing this season and UMBC has recorded an assist on just 43.1% of its baskets in conference play, the worst mark in the America East.
9. Binghamton (1-27, 1-14) – You have to watch out for Ben Dickinson and Robert Mansell now. It’s possible the Bearcats could win their 8-9 game in the first round of the conference tournament for the second season in a row (see below).

Looking Ahead

• Sunday, February 26 – Stony Brook vs. Maine – The Seawolves will attempt to clinch the top seed in America East and all the trappings that go with it on Senior Day for multiple key players including Bryan Dougher, Al Rapier, and Dallis Joyner. The Black Bears got a chance to play spoiler and warm up for a conference tournament to make up for a disappointing conference record.
• Thursday, March 1 – UMBC vs. Binghamton – At one time, people thought that this game, which is the first round game of the America East Tournament in West Hartford, Connecticut, would be Binghamton’s best shot at avoiding a winless season. Now that’s not necessary. The Bearcats won this game last season in impressive fashion, 91-65.
• Saturday, March 2 – America East Quarterfinals – Four games from West Hartford’s Chase Arena. You can watch these games on ESPN3.
• Sunday, March 3 – America East Semifinals – This should be the best basketball of the America East tournament, especially if all of the top seeds survive. A foursome of Stony Brook, Vermont, Boston University and Albany would make for an excellent showcase of the conference and great viewing on ESPN3.

Spotlight On … Court-Storming in Binghamton

This season’s court storm, for the first victory of the season, was very different from one just a few seasons ago when the Bearcats qualified for the NCAA Tournament. Give the fans in Binghamton credit. They still come out in droves.

2012:

2009:

Michael Litos is the RTC correspondent for the CAA. You can also find his musings online at caahoops.com or on Twitter @caahoops.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was

• Just Watch: The, uh, “controversial” RPI and terrible November are old news for the national media when it discusses the CAA’s chance at an at-large bid. We keep hearing more calls of “they look like an NCAA Tournament team,” or ye olde eye test. Drexel has won 16 straight and 22 of 23 and VCU is 13-1 in its last 14 games, losing only on a 30-foot buzzer beater at George Mason. And those Patriots are 16-3 in their last 19 games. ODU and Delaware are not in the running for an at-large, bid but both are closing fast. The Monarchs are 12-3 in their last 15 games and the Hens have won seven straight.
• Bustin’ Out: The CAA went 7-5 in BracketBusters last weekend, including a perfect 3-0 mark in televised games. VCU defeated Northern Iowa 77-68 on Friday, while Drexel dominated Cleveland State 69-49 and Old Dominion won 73-67 at Missouri State on Saturday. CAA teams are now 19-10 in TV games over the last eight years, which is the best winning percentage (.655) of any participating conference in the history of the event. The top six teams in the CAA all won as George Mason held off Lamar, Delaware got past Hampton and Georgia State topped UT-San Antonio. Hofstra also beat in-state foe Siena.
• Must See TV: The CAA has reached a five-year agreement with the NBC Sports Group that will provide the most extensive and comprehensive exposure of the conference in its history. NBC Sports Network will provide national television coverage for a minimum of 12 men’s basketball games each year, including the semifinals and finals of the CAA Men’s Basketball Championship. The Comcast SportsNet regional networks will regionally televise 39 additional men’s and women’s basketball games, including the quarterfinals of the CAA Men’s Basketball Championship. The agreements will begin with the 2012-13 season and run through 2016-17. The CAA is the first college conference to strike a deal with the NBC network, turning its back on ESPN.

Can Shaka Smart Lead VCU To A Tournament Bid? We May Have To Wait Until The Conference Tournament To Find Out.

Power Rankings

1. Drexel (15-2, 24-5): The Dragons have won 16 in a row and is 22-1 in their last 23 games. Drexel’s winning streak is the second-longest in the nation currently and is the school’s longest ever in D-I. With eight rebounds on Wednesday, senior Samme Givens became only the sixth player in CAA history to amass 1,000 points and 1,000 rebounds in a career. With its win over JMU, combined with George Mason’s loss to Northeastern, Drexel locked up the regular season championship and automatic NIT bid that goes with it. However with such impressive credentials, the Dragons want more.
2. VCU (14-3, 24-6): The national media has begun glomming onto the Rams due to a simple formula: last year’s Final Four run plus this year’s gaudy record. VCU now has won 24 or more games in six straight seasons. However VCU is playing better than that. The evidence? Northern Iowa was 12th in the country for fewest turnovers per game and VCU sped them into a season high 19 fumbles. VCU won despite UNI shooting 53% from three and 56% overall. Darius Theus continues his late game heroics. He had seven points and three assists in the last five minutes of the Rams’ win over Northern Iowa, and made a late steal that led to game-clinching free throws over UNCW. The new and improved Rob Brandenberg continued his late season surge, filling up 21 points, six rebounds, two assists and two steals to buoy VCU over UNCW.
3. George Mason (14-3, 23-7): Chucking the basketball isn’t a problem. The Patriots have hit 51% or better from the field in four of its past five games. Paul Hewitt has a team of weapons. Ryan Pearson continues to be option 1a for the player of the year honors. Pearson posted double-doubles vs. VCU (24/11) and Lamar (17/10) and has scored double digits 26 times and has 12 double-doubles on the campaign. Sherrod Wright has scored double figures in five of his last six games, and Bryon Allen had 10 points and 13 assists against Northeastern. So what’s the problem? The Patriots cannot help midgame napping. Mason toyed with Lamar but had to get a huge late three from senior Andre Cornelius to breathe easier. Cornelius, nearly invisible since his return from suspension, drilled a back-breaking three with about two minutes to play.
4. Old Dominion (13-4, 19-11): The Monarchs served three notices last week that they are a force to be reckoned with. First, Kent Bazemore won the Conference Player of the Week award and clearly has his swagger back. Second, Blaine Taylor was quoting sow’s ears, silk purses, and thongs in his postgame press conference. That’s a sign of confidence. Finally, the result: ODU won at Missouri State and at Georgia State. Swagger is playing out on the scoreboard. The difference may also reside in a freshman. Dimitri Batten continues to see more floor time, and make a bigger impact on the game. It was 28 minutes against Georgia State, with 13 points on the night.
5. Delaware (11-6, 16-12): The Hens have won seven straight games to get to 11 CAA victories, the program’s most since joining the CAA. Freshman Jarvis Threatt is 49-56 from the foul line in the last four games and is averaging 20.5 points in those contests. Assuming it gets past Towson in the opening round of the CAA tournament, Delaware will butt heads with the #4 seed ODU Monarchs. The two teams went to overtime earlier in the season, and that was before Delaware starting playing well.
6. Georgia State (10-7, 19-10): The Panthers’ slim hopes for a top-four seed vanished in an overtime loss to Old Dominion on Wednesday. Eric Buckner blocked six shots and now has 104 for the season. He leads the CAA and is only the sixth player to ever cross 100 blocks in a single season, and third not named David Robinson. Even with the loss vs. ODU, the program’s net gain is obvious. Georgia State’s ten CAA victories are its most ever and its 19 overall wins are the fourth-highest total in school history.
7. Northeastern (9-8, 13-15): Joel Smith went  5-9 from three in the win over George Mason and has hit 16-27 from beyond the arc in NUs past three games. Jon Lee paced the Huskies against Mason with a career-high 27 points, including hitting 18-20 free throws. Kashief Edwards was 8-10 from the floor and 6-6 from the stripe, finishing with 22 points. Edwards had scored 22 points in the prior five games combined, and it was his first trip to double figures since November 30. The Huskies, locked into the #7 seed, close the regular season Saturday at Delaware.
8. UNCW (5-12, 9-19): In their past 14 games, the Dubmen are 2-0 vs. William & Mary and 0-12 against the rest of the CAA. Buzz Peterson has asked for more toughness from his young team, but that message didn’t include two players. Keith Rendleman had a 24/10 double double against VCU, his CAA-best 16th double-double. Rendleman is second in the CAA in rebounding and sixth in scoring. The other player getting better is freshman Cedrick Williams, who had 11 points and 8 rebounds at ODU. He’s grabbed eight or more boards in four of his last five games.
9. James Madison (4-13, 11-19): The injury situation for JMU went from comical to macabre last week. Head coach Matt Brady, 47 years old, tore his Achilles tendon because he was forced into duty. Brady was running the scout team point guard role in practice when his tendon tore. Humpty Hitchens, the team’s best player and emotional barometer, sprained his shoulder and missed two games last week. Andrey Semenov and AJ Davis have stepped in ably, but the Dukes are a M*A*S*H unit.
10. William & Mary (4-13, 6-24): The Tribe has officially ensconced itself as the team with a bad record that nobody wants to play. William & Mary has won two of its last three games, and the lone loss was a two-point scare of Drexel in Philadelphia. The return of JohnMark Ludwick has mattered. The 6’9” senior has been injured all season but hit Hofstra with 10 points, five rebounds, and three assists in 17 minutes Brandon Britt scored 24 points to lead the way.
11. Hofstra (2-15, 9-21): Mo Cassara has faced his share of the injury plague. The Pride are down to seven healthy bodies and it shows late in games. The Dutchmen are now 2-8 in games decided by six points or less or in overtime after its 75-71 loss to William & Mary on Wednesday. Mike Moore has a league-best 16 20+-point efforts and leads the CAA in scoring (19.8 PPG). He’s been Hofstra’s top scorer in 23 of 29 games. Nathaniel Lester has tallied double figures 21 times in the last 22 games. Lester and Moore have combined for over 52% of Hofstra’s offense this season.
12. Towson (1-16, 1-29): We’ve said it before and it bears repeating, especially in late February. The losses mount for Pat Skerry’s team, but they continue to play hard. Robert Nwankwo had his 14th double-double of the season and 11th in the past 12 games with 12 points and 14 rebounds in the loss to Delaware. Nwankwo ranks seventh on the CAA’s all-time blocked shots list with 222.

Looking Ahead

• George Mason at VCU (Saturday): The stakes are simple: the winner gets the #2 seed in the CAA tournament, and the loser gets the #3 seed. What’s more, VCU continues to angle for an at large bid and needs every win it can get. The Rams’s Siegel Center is sold out for the 18th straight time—a raucous atmosphere is expected.
• Drexel at Old Dominion (Wednesday): Like VCU, Drexel wants to win every game on the schedule to remove all doubt for an NCAA tournament berth. Blaine Taylor and a sold out Ted Constant Center are a formidable obstacle. In fact, the Monarchs are playing their best basketball of the season, which CAA folks know is about as surprising as the sun coming up.

 Spotlight On…The Tournament

As new teams like Delaware and to an extent Drexel have made big noise during the regular season, the CAA Tournament has been the domain of the big three (VCU, ODU, George Mason), and UNCW. With the exception of 1998 (Richmond), only four CAA schools have won the CAA tournament since 1995: UNCW (2000, 2002, 2003, 2006), George Mason (1999, 2001, 2008), VCU (1996, 2004, 2007, 2009), and Old Dominion (1995, 1997, 2005, 2010-11). It has been 19 seasons since the CAA championship game did not include one of these teams. The good news for Drexel is the dominance of the regular season champion. Old Dominion became only the second team in the past ten seasons to win the CAA tournament without being the #1 seed (Mason as a #3 in 2008).

Purdue @ #11 Michigan, 6 PM, BTN

Michigan's Senior Night against Purdue will be a big game for Zach Novak and Stu Douglass (US Presswire)

• The Boilermakers need a win over a ranked opponent really bad.  Like, really, REALLY bad.  That’s because Purdue is 1-5 against teams in the RPI Top 25 and 4-7 against the Top 50.  A win would obviously help those stats out, and possibly put an end to the bubble talk surrounding the Boilermakers’ chances for an invite to the NCAA Tournament.  Robbie Hummel is doing his part, shooting 50% from the field and averaging 24.8 PPG over his last four contests. He also dropped a stat line of 16 points, five boards, and six assists the last time these two teams met, and will be expected to lead again.  Matt Painter will have to devise a plan to slow down the smoking-hot Wolverines, who have won five of their last six and have yet to lose at home this season.  It will be an emotional Senior Night in Ann Arbor, as fan favorites Zach Novak and Stu Douglass will be honored.  Douglass hasn’t missed a game in his Michigan career, while Novak was named the program’s first Academic All-American since 1984.

Nebraska @ #8 Michigan State, 8 PM, BTN

• The Huskers head to the Breslin Center in a game that Tom Izzo will certainly not overlook.  Michigan State escaped Minnesota this week, battling back from a double-digit second-half deficit to steal a win and hang on to sole possession of first place in the conference.  Brandon Wood came up big for the Spartans, scoring 13 points off the bench, and Keith Appling went 6-for-6 from the free throw line to hold off the Gophers late in the contest.  Upset-minded Nebraska comes to East Lansing with a 4-11 record in conference (12-14 overall), and a win over MSU would be a nice prize for an otherwise disappointing season.  They’ll need a big effort from leading scorer Bo Spencer, who will probably have to go above his 15.6 PPG average.

Northwestern @ Penn State, 9 PM, ESPNU

• The Wildcats are still kicking themselves after losing to Michigan in overtime for the second time this season.  They must get the job done at Penn State, as there is no room to waste any opportunity with only a few games left in the regular season.  John Shurna, averaging 20 PPG, is one of the best players in Northwestern history, and he’ll be a key down the stretch for Bill Carmody.  But road wins are hard to come by in the Big Ten, and controlling PSU stud point guard Tim Frazier (18.5 PPG) will be no easy task.  Northwestern’s inability to qualify for the NCAA Tournament is well-documented, and this game kicks off a pivotal stretch in the program’s history.

Ray Floriani is the RTC correspondent for the MAAC and NEC conferences.

Reader’s Take

Opening Tip

• Iona holds a slim lead and finishes the regular season at home with meetings against Fairfield and St. Peter’s. Regardless of how the top four play out, they are all very much in the hunt. Loyola’s final game at Manhattan on Sunday guarantees that a fair amount of scoreboard watching will be in vogue.

Player of the Week

• Scott Machado, Iona, 6’1″, Sr. G – Averaged 14.5 points, 12 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 3 steals for the week. The versatile  Machado had 16 points in a win at Rider, hitting all ten of his free throw attempts.

Co-Rookies of the Week

• Chavaughn Lewis, Marist, 6’5″, Fr., G/F - A starter for three weeks now, Lewis has 14 double figure games to his credit. Against Maine, Lewis recorded career highs in points (24), rebounds (9) and assists (5).
• Evan Hymes, Siena, 5’8″, Fr., G – Outstanding in a 21-point, 7-assist showing in the upset of Manhattan. Playing 40 minutes for the 14^th time in 16 games, Hymes averaged 13.5 points per game for the week.

Standings

Team, MAAC record, overall record:

Team Rundown

1. Iona- Won on the road at Rider before coming home to defeat Nevada in the Bracketbusters. Sean Armand led five double figure scorers for the Gaels with 22 points against Rider. Armand was 7 of 13 from three-point range. Against Nevada, a 90-84 victory,  Lamont Jones paced Iona with 18 points. Five Gaels were in double figures and Scott Machado handed out 15 assists.
   

   Michael Glover and Iona Are The Team To Beat In The MAAC Tourney (AP)

2. Loyola – Lost at Marist before defeating Boston University in the Bracketbuster. Shane Walker had a 16-point, 12-rebound night in the losing effort at Marist. A team with a defensive efficiency of 96 during the MAAC season, Loyola allowed Marist a huge 114 rating in their 72-54 loss. Four Greyhounds hit double figures against BU with Robert Olson’s 17 points leading the way. Olson added 4 rebounds and 3 assists.
3. Fairfield – Lost a close Bracketbuster at UW Milwaukee before defeating Marist in conference action. Rakim Sanders paced the Stags against UW Milwaukee with 21 points and 9 rebounds. Derek Needham’s 16 points led the way against Marist. Fairfield held Marist to 12 first half points in the 60-49 triumph.
4. Manhattan - Split its games with a loss at Siena before defeating UNC Wilmington in the Bracketbusters. George Beamon led the way scoring 16 points at Siena and 22 points (with 6 rebounds) against UNC Wilmington. Emmy Andujar added 19 points in the latter game. Andjuar hit 3-of-4 from three-point range and contributed eight rebounds.
5. Rider – Lost three straight with conference setback to Iona before a Bracketbusters loss to Albany. Anthony Myles paced Rider with 21 points against Iona. Rider led at the half by five points before the visiting Gaels drew even and pulled away for a 75-62 decision. At Albany, Jeff Jones led the way for the Broncs with 18 points.
6. Niagara – Defeated Canisius and lost at Vermont in the Bracketbusters. Antoine Mason scored 21 points against Canisius, hitting 9-of-11 from the charity stripe. Mason added five rebounds. Mason added 20 points at Vermont while Malcolm Lemmons scored 17. Niagara finishes the MAAC schedule with games at St. Peter’s and Marist.
7. Siena – Had a two-game winning streak, which included a decision over Manhattan, stopped by a Bracketbusters defeat at the hands of Hofstra.  Evan Hymes starred with a 21-point, 7-assist effort against the Jaspers. Hymes struggled with a 6-point, 8-turnover outing at Hofstra. O. D. Anosike came through with a 22-point, 12-rebound performance.
8. Marist – Won the Bracketbusters contest at Maine before dropping a home meeting with Fairfield. Chavaughn Lewis had an outstanding 24-point, 9-rebound, 5-assist performance at Maine. Lewis followed that up with a 19-point, 6-rebound effort against Marist. The 60-49 loss to Fairfield saw the Red Foxes limited to an 82 offensive efficiency. In MAAC play Marist’s offensive efficiency is a 98.
9. St. Peter’s – Losing streak hit five games with a setback at Fairfield and against Hartford in the Bracketbusters. Brandon Hall led the way with nine points at Fairfield as no player on St. Peter’s reached double figures. Darius Conley led the way against Hartford with a 20-point, 9-rebound performance in 34 minutes against Hartford.
10. Canisius – Lost a conference meeting at Niagara before a Bracketbusters win over UMBC. Alshwan Hymes continued his fine play with a 19 points and 6 rebounds at Niagara. Hymes added 23 against UMBC shooting 5-of-11 from three-point range. Chris Manhertz had a strong showing inside with an 11-point, 10-rebound effort.

Schedule

Friday, February 24:

• Fairfield at Iona
• Niagra at St. Peter’s
• Canisius at Manhattan
• Loyola at Rider

Sunday, February 26:

• St. Peter’s at Iona
• Niagara at Marist
• Canisius at Siena
• Fairfield at Rider
• Loyola at Manhattan

End of regular season

Danny Spewak is the RTC correspondent for Sun Belt Conference. You can find him Twitter @dspewak.

Reader’s Take 

The Week That Was

• Surprise, surprise: Middle Tennessee is your East Division champion. Reeling off four straight victories after that lone loss at Denver on national television earlier this month, the Blue Raiders tallied 30 assists in a 94-61 win at Louisiana-Monroe on Thursday night. That’s downright unheard of. They also made 10 three-pointers and allowed 15 players to appear in the game. Kudos to Kermit Davis for sharing the love.
  

  Kermit Davis and Middle Tennessee Are On The Brink Of Joining The NCAA Tourney Party (AP)

• It’s official: Ray Harper is no longer an interim head coach at Western Kentucky– he got the full-time gig. The move adds a little stability to an increasingly unstable program in Bowling Green after the rocky tenure of previous head coach Ken McDonald. Harper, who served as an assistant on McDonald’s staff, won two national championships as a head coach in the Division II ranks. His team has responded relatively well to him, despite youth and major adversity.

The Past

In a contest of basketball history with the other new members, no one can touch the Tigers. They also have a troubled history. Eugene Lambert led the program to its first NCAA Tournament appearance in 1955 and since then Memphis has played in 22 NCAA Tournaments, has gone to 11 Sweet Sixteens, six Elite Eights, two Final Fours, and two National Championship games. They have been the stomping grounds for great players like Larry Finch, Keith Lee, Elliot Perry, Anfernee Hardaway, Lorenzen Wright, and most recently, Derrick Rose.

Hey, Remember These Guys?

Of course it also true that a whole host of those appearances and wins have been vacated by the NCAA thanks to widespread rules violations. Everybody remembers the most recent snafu where John Calipari and the program dealt with infractions like providing travel money to Rose’s brother as well as playing Derrick Rose under suspicion of a fraudulent SAT score that caused the NCAA to remove its Final Four appearance and record 38-win season. But only older Tiger fans will also remember former coach Dana Kirk and the parade of allegations against him that led to his ouster and the vacation of all the team’s wins from 1982-86.

Regardless of the less-than-shiny past, the school’s football program is in tatters, so it is safe to assume that the Big East had an eye towards retaining some of their luster and reputation on the basketball court, and Memphis is an excellent fit in that regard.

The Present

When Calipari left to take the job at Kentucky, the Tigers wasted little time inserting former assistant wunderkind Josh Pastner as his replacement and the move has already paid dividends. While Pastner hasn’t quite gotten the program back to the heights of 2008, he has proven to be a more than capable caretaker. He is young, but his tireless efforts on the recruiting trail are well-documented and he has three-straight 20-win seasons to show for it.

Will Barton Has Carried The Tigers This Season.

This season the Tigers have been talented, but also inconsistent. They have won eight of their last 10 games and sit atop the Conference USA standings by one game, but their most impressive wins have been at Miami early in the season when the Hurricanes were struggling, and at home against scuffling Xavier. Losing precocious freshman Adonis Thomas to injury earlier probably didn’t help much, and the struggles of point guard Joe Jackson have forced do-it-all guard Will Barton (18.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG) to carry the team.

The Tigers definitely have the talent to win their conference and earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament, and they might need to because their out-of-conference resume is somewhat underwhelming. They are also one of those long, athletic, defensive-minded teams that can make a run in the NCAA Tournament and a lot will depend on whether their young core can play with poise.

The Future

We already mentioned they are coached by one of the best recruiters in the sport, right? So then you should already know that Memphis’ future is similarly bright. Wesley Witherspoon is a valuable role player and Charles Carmouche hasn’t left the bench in weeks, and those are the only two players Pastner will lose next season, assuming Barton doesn’t turn pro and no one else transfers.

In Case This Is The First You Heard About College Basketball, Josh Pastner Can Recruit His Pants Off

Missing out on top local big men Jarnell Stokes and Alex Poythress was no fun for Memphis or its fan base, but the Tigers also already have commitments from two top-100 recruits, including highly coveted big man Shaquille Goodwin. And they aren’t ignoring Georgia big men Tony Parker and Charles Mitchell, should a scholarship become available. Memphis is a hotbed for excellent talent, and the allure of the Big East should make a school with such a rich tradition and excellent resources even more appealing to recruits.

Memphis isn’t going anywhere, and they could be a legitimate Top 20 team as soon as next season. So if you were to look at the move from solely a basketball perspective, it seems like the conference was finally able to save some face in what has become its most recognized sport.

Tubby Smith Has Had A Rough Time With Injuries To His Star Players

Transfers

The stage was set for potential disappointment in 2010 when 6’8″ forward Royce White transferred to Iowa State. White joined other transfers such as Michigan State’s Kris Allen to play for Fred Hoiberg and the Cyclones. White is having a fantastic season – 12.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 5.0 APG. In addition to White, the list of transfers includes Devoe Joseph to Oregon and Colton Iverson to Colorado State.  Joseph has Oregon sitting on the bubble for an NCAA tournament bid in a weak Pac-12 conference but his services would have certainly helped Tubby Smith’s team. He is averaging 16.3 PPG and Smith caught a fair amount of heat in 2011 when Joseph chose to leave Minnesota. Royce White’s case was a little different because of several off the court issues but nonetheless, Smith was counting on him to have a good career in Minneapolis and it fell short. Smith’s recruiting classes were very good and the performance of his ex-players shows that he knew what he was doing but for several other reasons, he couldn’t hold the team together. Is he to blame for all of the transfers? Not necessarily. Players don’t always pan out the way you expect them to, but the best you can do is bring them into the program and try to keep them away from trouble and focused on basketball.

Injuries

Despite all the transfers, Smith did an excellent job keeping the rest of the locker room together and creating a sense of accountability. Coaches lose their jobs not just because of transfers but also due to the instability within the program following their exit. Even though Joseph and Iverson followed White’s direction out of the door, those moves did not impact the 2011 season immediately. The Gophers won 10 games in their non-conference season and were ready for a good Big Ten campaign. Even if the fans blame Smith for the transfers, he couldn’t do much about the injuries. Al Nolen got hurt midway through the Big Ten conference season which led to a losing skid over the last 11 games and the Gophers finished with only 17 wins for the year. Nolen showed great leadership on the court and it was sorely missed during key stretches of games last season. Regardless, Smith continued to lead his team as other players stepped up. Trevor Mbakwe improved his game and as a result was ready to lead them in the 2012 season. Once again, they entered the year at a high point because they started with 10 wins before the B1G season. What goes up has to come down and it did when Mbakwe’s season was cut short with yet another injury. It doesn’t help a team when their leading scorer is out for the season and the coach needs to adjust the offense right before beginning conference play. Smith doesn’t deserve the blame especially if the backups step up to the plate every year.

After Mbakwe went down, most experts chalked Minnesota to finish at the bottom of the Big Ten standings.  But Rodney Williams, a 6’7″ junior was held accountable to lead and he delivered.  Another junior, Julian Welch, has been averaging 10.5 PPG to supplement Williams’ 11.0 PPG to pick up the void left behind after Mbakwe’s injury. Instead of feeding the post, Smith had to adjust the offense to utilize Williams’ slashing abilities. The Gophers played their hearts out during the first four games of the B1G season but they fell short in all of them by a close margin – a loss to Illinois in double overtime on the road and losing to Michigan and Iowa by a combined total of seven points. The learning curve was too steep for the younger players who were used to playing second fiddle in the offense. It was obvious during those losses that they missed a closer. Williams and Welch were fast learners, but couldn’t close the gap quickly to win tough games. The same trend continued over the last four games, specifically the one against Michigan State on Wednesday night. Minnesota was up 58-52 in the last couple minutes during a must-win game but they turned the ball over twice within the last-minute to blow the lead. There was a lack of leadership on the floor because their guards Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman are only freshmen after all. Regardless, they gave Tom Izzo’s crew everything they could handle but just couldn’t close the deal. The Gopher fan base went through another high during the mid-season but had to fall down as their bubble might have popped after the loss on Wednesday night.

Tubby Smith has done a great job of picking up his players after key injuries and transfers but at some point it catches up. And that’s exactly what happened over the last couple seasons. But there is plenty of hope for next season because the younger wingmen will come back more mature and give the Big Ten everything they can handle. The attitude of the fans however will be of some cautious optimism after what they have been through the last couple winters.

Somewhat unbelievably, the second-to-last regular season Saturday is upon us. Plenty of big time and bubble games are on the schedule as the stretch run really heats up.

#3 Missouri @ #4 Kansas – 4:00 PM EST Saturday on CBS (*****)

• The final Border War game promises to be another terrific display of basketball between two top five teams that really don’t care for one another. Missouri won the first meeting between these teams, but to do it again it will have to defend at a higher level. Both teams shot over 50% at Mizzou Arena three weeks ago, but Kansas has been the better defensive team all season long. Now playing at home in virtually impenetrable Allen Fieldhouse, the Jayhawks have to like their chances in this one. Kansas has a huge rebounding and size advantage in the paint with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey going up against Ricardo Ratliffe. While Ratliffe is a great finisher around the bucket, he was held to six points in the first meeting, limited by foul trouble in only 20 minutes of action. Kansas can neutralize Ratliffe and force Missouri to make shots. Missouri hit 10 threes in the first meeting, led by Marcus Denmon’s six. Kansas will have to tighten up a three point defense that ranks #173 nationally in order to prevent that from happening again.
  

  Can Denmon & The Tigers Rebound?

• Denmon’s 29-point effort against Kansas on February 4 lifted him out of a slump and his high level of play has continued since then. Denmon and Kim English have to make shots or else Kansas will have a significant edge in this game. The Jayhawks should be dominant inside with Robinson going against Ratliffe with Withey by his side. Kansas is one of the best teams in the nation in two point percentage. Defensively, Bill Self has to be worried about the three point line. While Kansas is a very efficient defensive team, they can be beaten from the arc. Missouri is certainly a team capable of doing that as it moves the ball well and has a multitude of deep threats lining the perimeter. Frank Haith needs a good game at point guard out of Phil Pressey, otherwise Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor could take over the game quickly as they did against Baylor at the Phog. Taylor has had an outstanding senior season but is vulnerable to turnovers. Look for Missouri to target him defensively in order to prevent him from getting into a rhythm and setting up the Jayhawk offense.
•  The big question mark here is can Missouri defend at a high level against an elite opponent on the road? The Tigers are last in the Big 12 in three point defense and their overall efficiency rating leaves a lot to be desired. Kansas is going to get its points inside but is not a particularly great outside shooting team. However, Taylor poses a big threat and must be held in check if Missouri is going to beat Kansas in a place where almost nobody wins. Until proven otherwise, we can’t pick against the Jayhawks in such an emotionally charged game as this one.

#2 Syracuse @ Connecticut – 9:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN (****)

•  Syracuse has played a number of close games of late but has managed to survive all of them. The Orange will be tested again on the road by a Connecticut team that needs a big win and actually matches up pretty well with the Orange. Syracuse shot 59% in the first meeting between these teams, a game where UConn hung around for a while before Syracuse went on a huge run to close the game out. Syracuse was 10-16 from three point land in that game, something the Orange normally don’t do very well. Syracuse isn’t a great three point shooting team but that’s where Connecticut is most vulnerable defensively. As most Connecticut teams are, the Huskies are outstanding when it comes to defending the paint. That’s not the case on the perimeter though and it’s certainly something Jim Boeheim will let his team know about. Still, Syracuse can’t get away from its bread and butter: transition points and interior scoring. Dion Waiters was a spark in the first game with UConn and the Orange will need him again this time around.
• Connecticut has to be able to stop Syracuse inside if it is going to pull off the upset and punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are probably in already but a win here would assure them of a spot in the big dance. The Orange get a ton of points in transition and in the paint but the Huskies boast one of the best interior defenses in the nation. If Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi can limit Fab Melo and Syracuse slashers like Kris Joseph and C.J. Fair, the Huskies may be on their way to a win. The key to beating Syracuse is to turn them into a jump shooting team and limit fast break points. Easier said than done but Connecticut has the personnel to do it. The Huskies should own the boards against an Orange team that ranks #337 in defensive rebounding percentage. That will allow Connecticut to control pace and get second chances on the offensive glass. The Huskies have always been a great offensive rebounding team and they will need another strong effort on the glass on Saturday night. Limiting the Syracuse transition game will be tougher. Connecticut turns the ball over too much and the Syracuse defense is fantastic at getting steals and forcing giveaways. If Shabazz Napier can’t handle the point with poise, Syracuse will run wild in transition.
• Napier called out his teammates after the loss to Marquette and responded by knocking down the game winning shot at Villanova on Monday. The Huskies will be in this game for the long haul if they play with better chemistry and a sense of purpose that has been missing for the better part of the year. Keeping Syracuse out of the lane and doing a good job on the perimeter defensively will allow the Huskies to win this game. They can’t allow Syracuse to shoot 59% again and expect to win, even at home. Connecticut will also have to make some threes and get balanced scoring across the board from guys like Napier, Jeremy Lamb and Ryan Boatright. One guy won’t be able to win it for Connecticut, it has to be all hands on deck against the deepest team in the country.

#20 Wisconsin @ #8 Ohio State – 4:00 PM EST Sunday on CBS (***)

• This is a battle between the top two defenses in the nation according to the efficiency metrics. Wisconsin is coming off a disappointing loss at Iowa on Thursday night while the Buckeyes have gone just 3-2 since defeating the Badgers in Madison three weeks ago. To defeat Wisconsin again, Ohio State has to use its advantage inside and speed the game up. With Jared Sullinger roaming the paint, the Buckeyes have something Wisconsin can’t come close to matching. It was mind boggling to see Ohio State shoot so many jumpers against Michigan last week, a team that plays a very similar style to Wisconsin. If Ohio State follows that same game play, it will keep Wisconsin hanging around in a game it should win. Thad Matta must instruct his team to feed Sullinger early and often, forcing Wisconsin to adjust. Once that happens, looks could open up for William Buford and Deshaun Thomas. Thomas shot well in the first meeting with Wisconsin and a repeat performance should have the home standing Buckeyes well on their way to another win.
• The formula for Wisconsin is simple. Make threes. This team is over-reliant on the deep shot but that’s just the way it is for Bo Ryan’s club. The Badgers shot five of 27 in the first game against Ohio State and there’s just no way a team like Wisconsin is going to win a game against the Sullinger-led Buckeyes shooting like that. It will be another long afternoon if the Badgers fail to convert from the perimeter. Look for a lot of ball screening action and a lot of late shot clock attempts as Wisconsin attempts to minimize possessions and slow the pace, something it does better than any team in the country. Jordan Taylor is arguably the only player on Wisconsin who can create his own shot and he’ll have to be connecting in order for his team to pull the road upset. Wisconsin’s offense has struggled in Big Ten play so its best chance is to keep the game in the 50’s and hope to hit some big shots late. Defensively, letting Sullinger get his points may be the best course of action. Wisconsin couldn’t stop him in Madison but limiting the other Ohio State players could be the key to success for UW in this game.
•  This will be a clean game with few turnovers and solid, fundamentally sound play from both teams. Wisconsin will be in the game if it can make threes but expect Aaron Craft to really pressure Taylor defensively making it that much harder for the Wisconsin point guard to set up his offense and convert in late clock situations. Even though Ohio State struggles to shoot from the outside, it would appear the Buckeyes have too many weapons for Wisconsin to overcome in Columbus. Unless the Badgers put up something like a 13-30 mark from deep, Ohio State should come out on top in this Sunday Big Ten tilt.

More solid games requiring your attention:

• #10 Marquette @ West Virginia (9 PM Friday on ESPN) – The Mountaineers have lost six of their last eight games but can punch their NCAA ticket with a quality win over Marquette. Should West Virginia fail to win here, its game next Saturday at South Florida could be massive for both teams.
• Vanderbilt @ #1 Kentucky (12 PM Saturday on CBS) – Vandy had its shot to knock off the Wildcats in Nashville earlier this month but couldn’t get the job done down the stretch. Beating UK at Rupp, where John Calipari has not lost as head coach, seems like a stretch.
• Iowa State @ Kansas State (1:30 PM Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com) – Despite a 10-5 Big 12 record entering the game, Iowa State is not a sure-fire NCAA team just yet. With games against Missouri and Baylor remaining after this, a win here would give the Cyclones some insurance and likely put them in the field of 68.
• #6 North Carolina @ Virginia (4 PM Saturday on ESPN) – The Cavaliers did not play well in a February 11 lost at UNC but get another chance on their home floor this time around. Despite a 21-6 record, Virginia’s profile is rather weak. A win against the Tar Heels would really help Virginia’s NCAA Tournament seeding.
• Purdue @ #12 Michigan (6 PM Saturday on CBS/BTN) – Michigan has won four straight and five of six, playing its best basketball at the right time. If Purdue can’t get this win, the Boilermakers may be sitting right on the bubble in two weeks time.
• Mississippi State @ Alabama (6 PM Saturday on ESPN) – Mississippi State has dropped four straight games and five of its last seven, plummeting towards the bubble in stunning fashion. If the Bulldogs can’t win this one on the road, the best they can do is finish 8-8 in the SEC. As for Alabama, the Crimson Tide reside firmly on the bubble but won a key game at Arkansas on Thursday. This is a huge game for SEC Tournament seeding and NCAA selection.
• George Mason @ VCU (6 PM Saturday on ESPN2) – Mason won the first meeting on a wild Sherrod Wright triple at the buzzer but VCU will be looking to exact some revenge on its home floor. Really solid game in the Colonial.
• Colorado State @ San Diego State (10 PM Saturday on The Mtn.) – It has been a rough last month or so for the Aztecs, losers in three of their last four games. San Diego State has lost four of seven games, a bad stretch started by a loss to Colorado State in Fort Collins. The Rams are banking on their strong computer numbers to keep them in the NCAA discussion but a solid road scalp like this would go a long way.
• Cincinnati @ South Florida (12 PM Sunday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com) – Cincinnati is pretty much in the field after beating Louisville on Thursday but could ensure itself of a bid with a win here, while possibly knocking the Bulls out of the discussion. South Florida played very well in a Wednesday loss to Syracuse but it needs to win games against good teams. That has to start here.
• #14 Florida State @ Miami (6 PM Sunday on ESPNU) – This is a huge opportunity for the Hurricanes to pick up a quality win while defeating a rival. Aside from a terrific win at Duke, Miami’s resume doesn’t show any other quality victories. That would change if the Hurricanes can knock off the Seminoles.

The Official RTC Star System

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2014
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s games.

While the nation is no longer captured by the potential of an undefeated team, Murray State looks like it prefers it that way. No longer in the first block of SportsCenter highlights or constantly having a spotlight on their Ohio Valley conference games, the Racers have been playing their best ball of the season. Losing at home to Tennessee State two weeks ago was not a fun occasion at the time, but Isaiah Canaan, Donte Poole, and company look like they have turned the experience into an opportunity to play looser and more aggressive, the staple of Murray basketball this season. The Racers got revenge against Tennessee State with an 80-62 win on Thursday night, giving the team another convincing victory since that lone loss. At 27-1, 14-1 in the OVC, and playing better than ever, the Racers couldn’t be happier with how things are playing out and they hope to continue this run into the postseason.

Murray State Has Gotten Stronger Since Losing its Only Game (AP Photo/J. Roberson)

While Murray State’s bid for perfection was giving the program some great time in the spotlight, the added pressure was evident in the team’s lackluster play. In the eight games before the team suffered its first loss, Murray was keeping the undefeated streak alive but also showing signs that it was slipping. The Racers barely hung on to beat Tennessee Tech at home, needed a late run in the final minutes to win at Morehead State, trailed by double digits in the second half versus Southeast Missouri State before storming back for a victory, and defeated 4-26 Tennessee-Martin by just seven points. On February 9, Murray State finally couldn’t make up for its poor play for much of the game and took the home ‘L’ against Tennessee State.

But it’s funny how these things work sometimes. After dropping that home game to the Tigers and their #131 RPI, the Racers received serious backlash from the national media about their legitimacy as a ranked team. Some analysts went as far as saying the team should be on the bubble come tournament selection time if it lost any more games and failed to win the OVC conference tournament. Apparently a top-100 non-conference strength of schedule and nearly flawless win-loss record was not enough to impress the talking heads, at least the ones who reacted so negatively after the loss.

Who knows if Steve Prohm and his players were listening, but they certainly got the message. Since the loss on February 8, Murray State has won four straight games by an average of 15 points. Those games include road contests at the teams ranked second and third in the Ohio Valley, as well as home games against Austin Peay (OVC pre-season favorite) and #24 Saint Mary’s in the marquee BracketBuster matchup. Just as the competition got ramped up, the team has taken its game to another level, and it got its revenge on Thursday night against the Tigers. Canaan scored 24 points in this one, Poole added 16, and the backcourt mates combined to shoot 9-15 from behind the arc. MSU held the Tigers to 40.4% shooting and a paltry 2-15 from behind the arc. Who knows what impact that first loss to Tennessee State had on the team’s psyche, but the results show that the Racers are playing more comfortably as a group. Nine different players scored and played at least eight minutes on Thursday, and the Racers looked stronger than ever.

Murray State still has its doubters, and it definitely is not a guarantee to win anything in the NCAA Tournament. Because, as Coach Prohm puts it, “regardless of where you’re seeded – five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 – you’re going to play somebody good.” But we know one thing for sure, and that’s that the Racers will definitely be dancing. We also have seen the explosive scoring and aggressive perimeter defense that the team has put on display in the past four games, led by the All-American candidate Canaan. The Racers will be long shots to advance far in the postseason as an undersized, mid-major squad, but the collective talent and composure of this team should give it a great opportunity to continue this special season with victories during March Madness.

1. And then there were two. After skating through its first seven home conference games, Colorado turned in a stinker on Thursday night, getting thoroughly dominated by Stanford in front of their home crowd. The Buffaloes shot just a 33.3% eFG and got badly outrebounded (Stanford grabbed 81.4% of their defensive rebound opportunities and 40% on the offensive end), as sophomore forward Andre Roberson got no help on the boards. CU still has a chance to have a significant impact on the eventual winner of the conference, since they host league-leading California on Sunday afternoon, but barring a wild swing down the stretch, the Buffs are out of the title race. Worse yet, given their tough three-game stretch the rest of the way, they could be well on their way to losing the opening-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament. Chasson Randle led the Cardinal with 20 points, and was one of three players to knock down three three-pointers on the game.
2. Meanwhile, California did what they needed to do, handling Utah in order to set up a battle with the aforementioned Buffaloes on Sunday. Leading scorer Allen Crabbe was held without a point from the field and Justin Cobbs was limited to just five points, but the Golden Bears forced 17 Ute turnovers, took care of the ball on their own end and gutted out a win. The win temporarily puts the Bears alone in first place, with Washington off tonight in advance of their Apple Cup rivalry with Washington State on Saturday.
3. While the race for the conference title is rapidly clearing up, we’ve still got some gridlock among the next tier of teams, of which Colorado is now one, as the teams vie to avoid the #5 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament and miss out on the four byes through the opening round. Arizona did its homework on Thursday night, putting in a workmanlike effort in a 70-54 win over USC. Freshman point guard Josiah Turner did not start the game, but came off the bench strong and turned in the best game of his career, scoring a career-high 15 points and adding six assists – one shy of his career high – with no turnovers in 31 minutes of action. Senior guard Kyle Fogg also excelled, posting his first career double-double in his second-to-last home game, with 16 points and a career-high 12 rebounds. Prior to the game, head coach Sean Miller announced the suspension junior center Kyryl Natyazkho, who had only earned a total of five minutes in the last nine games, for a violation of unspecified team rules.
4. A bit up the road in Tempe, Lazeric Jones showed he takes instruction well after head coach Ben Howland encouraged him during the week to shoot more. Jones did just that against Arizona State, shooting 15 times on his way to 20 points and taking over down the stretch as UCLA pulled away from the short-handed Sun Devils. Jones scored 13 of his points in the second half as his team turned a one-point halftime lead into a lead as big as 17. ASU played without junior wing Carrick Felix due to an illness.
5. Interesting take from Bud Withers of the Seattle Times on a possible reason why the Pac-12 is down this year, and why it may not get better in the future: demographics. In short, the idea is that because success in basketball is largely dependent on African-Americans, and because the western United States has a lower proportion of African-Americans than other regions, the schools in the Pac-12 may be at a bit of a competitive disadvantage to schools in other regions. At best, this is probably just one of the drops in an otherwise large bucket, as Withers rightly points out that allowing high school recruits from their own backyard to matriculate elsewhere certainly doesn’t help their cause. But, there could be something to look at here going forward.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

• Last Four In: NC State, Northwestern, Texas, Washington
• First Four Out: South Florida, Oregon, Arizona, Dayton
• Next Four Out: Miami, LSU, UCF, Massachusetts

(bold indicates auto bid, italics indicates a bubble team)

1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State

2 Seeds: Missouri, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Michigan, Marquette, Baylor, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Florida State, Louisville, Florida, Indiana

5 Seeds: Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Temple, Wichita State

6 Seeds: UNLV, Murray State, Vanderbilt, New Mexico

7 Seeds: Creighton, Kansas State, Gonzaga, San Diego State

8 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Virginia, California, Iowa State

9 Seeds: Saint Louis, Memphis, Cincinnati, Harvard

10 Seeds: Connecticut, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Purdue

11 Seeds: Alabama, Southern Miss, Long Beach State, Seton Hall

12 Seeds: BYU, Xavier, Colorado State, Washington, Texas

13 Seeds: Northwestern, NC State, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Akron

14 Seeds: Iona, Drexel, Nevada, Davidson

15 Seeds: Belmont, Weber State, Valparaiso, Bucknell

16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, UT-Arlington, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State

• Cincinnati is one of the more difficult teams to seed in recent memory. It really boils down to how much you believe the committee is going to weigh RPI/SOS relative to RPI top-50 wins. I tried to find a happy medium at a #9 seed. The Bearcats computer numbers are appalling (74 RPI, 114 SOS, 319 non-conference SOS) but no teams behind them in today’s S-Curve boast the same abundance of quality wins: at Georgetown, Louisville, at Connecticut, Notre Dame, Seton Hall with a 6-4 true road record and a 10-5 mark in the Big East. That’s an impressive portfolio for a supposed bubble team without even glimpsing at the RPI. One has to believe Cincinnati is in at 11-7.
• Missouri dropping from the third number one seed to the first number two seed after one loss may seem a bit harsh, but it’s more about what Duke and Michigan State have done than what Missouri hasn’t done. Duke and Michigan State played much more rugged non-conference schedules and currently lead their respective leagues. For example, Duke beat Michigan State, Kansas, Michigan, Washington, NC State, Belmont and Davidson along the way, not to mention true road ACC wins at North Carolina and Florida State. Duke may be the most flawed top seed in recent memory, but that shouldn’t alter any objective analysis of their resume to date. Missouri is hampered a bit by a #269 non-conference SOS and fewer quality wins throughout the season than either the Devils or Spartans. That can change with a win at Kansas on Saturday.
• All Oregon and Arizona can do is keep winning and let the dominoes fall as they may. Until a potential Pac-12 tournament meeting with either Cal or Washington, there’s no opportunity for even anything resembling a quality win remaining on the schedule. The Ducks visit rival Oregon State before finishing at home with Colorado and Utah while Arizona topped USC last night and end their schedule with UCLA and Arizona State. Playing in the Pac-12 this season limits chances to pick up scalps, especially after squandering nearly all of their marquee non-league games in November and December. Washington’s sweep of Arizona looms mighty large at the moment.
• The opposite is true with South Florida. The Bulls back-loaded schedule brings Cincinnati to Tampa this Sunday. Depending on how other bubble teams fare, USF may move into Monday’s field with a victory. A trip to Louisville and a home date with West Virginia prior to the Big East Tournament present even more opportunities. If Stan Heath’s team can win two games, it would be awfully hard for the committee to leave a 12-6 Big East team out of the field despite non-league losses to Auburn, Penn State and Old Dominion. USF boasts a 48 RPI, 28 SOS and 49 non-conference SOS.

Bubble Games This Weekend

• Friday- Marquette at West Virginia: The Mountaineers have lost six of eight and are quickly trending in the wrong direction. They receive a gift from the bubble gods: a top ten team in their joint. Let’s see if WVU can capitalize and create some distance between themselves and the cut line.
• Saturday- Iowa State at Kansas State: The Cyclones rigorous three-game stretch to end the campaign — at Kansas State, at Missouri, Baylor — begins Saturday in Manhattan. Given this year’s bubble climate, stealing just one win may be enough for a bid barring a horrible loss in KC.
• Saturday- UCLA at Arizona: With a #70 RPI and #101 SOS, the Wildcats desperately need to hold serve at home. The Wildcats have what Washington and Oregon do not: a win over California.
• Saturday- NC State at Clemson: After blowing their golden opportunities at Duke and home vs. Florida State and UNC, the Wolfpack now face the portion of their schedule where they have everything to lose and little to gain: at Clemson, Miami, at Virginia Tech. They’re NIT-bound barring a sweep.
• Saturday- Mississippi State at Alabama: The Tide boast much better RPI/SOS numbers, State holds more quality wins.
• Saturday- Massachusetts at Dayton: The loser is eliminated from at-large bid contention. Simple as that.
• Saturday- Purdue at Michigan: Given Michigan’s home dominance, this is a long shot upset. Should Purdue pull off the miracle, they’ll feel a whole lot better about their chances. Right now all the Boilers really have is a November win over Temple and a sweep of Northwestern.
• Saturday- Washington at Washington State: Depending on how other bubble teams fare, the Huskies may drop out of the projected field with a loss. The same could apply to their season finale at UCLA.
• Saturday- Syracuse at Connecticut: If the Huskies can finally put it together for 40 minutes and hand overall #1 seed Syracuse their first loss with Fab Melo, UConn should feel good about getting to 9-9 and sneaking in the tournament. Their last two games are winnable: at Providence and vs. Pittsburgh.
• Saturday- Northwestern at Penn State: Northwestern’s spot in the field is precarious at best. A loss to bottom-feeder Penn State obviously drops them out, possibly for good.
• Sunday- Cincinnati at USF: Despite Cincinnati’s lackluster RPI, this is an enormous game for USF. Their lofty conference record is nice, but all that will even mildly impress the committee is a home win over Seton Hall. USF could move into the projected field with a win Sunday. The Bearcats all but lock up a bid with a win in Tampa.
• Sunday- Florida State at Miami: The Canes boast the win at Duke and…..(crickets). Their next best scalp is UMass at home. This is a must win.
• Sunday- Oregon at Oregon State: The Ducks can’t slip up in Corvallis to stay in the bubble hunt. Oregon beat Washington and won at Arizona.