Brian Joyce is an SEC microsite staffer and occasional contributor.
Question: Can a Team of Freshmen Win a National Championship?
It’s an easy question, so I have a simple answer. Yes, of course, a team of mostly one-and-done players can win the national title. That’s the beauty of college basketball, and more specifically the “lose and you’re out” nature of March Madness. Any team can win it all, as VCU and Butler proved this past year by advancing to the Final Four.
The question has been answered already on a number of occasions. Several teams with a nucleus of freshmen players have taken their teams to Final Fours and even come awfully close to winning a National Championship. The infamous Fab Five of the 1991-92 Michigan Wolverines were arguably the greatest recruiting class ever assembled. Despite their youth at a time when juniors and seniors dominated the college basketball landscape, the Fab Five overpowered opponents all the way to the national title game. It was there that Michigan met one of the best college basketball teams ever in the Duke Blue Devils, and simply didn’t have the focus and ability to play their level of basketball.
The Fab Five Were Arguably the Best Freshman Class Ever (AP)
A similar scenario occurred years later as the 2006-07Ohio State Buckeyes put together a tremendous freshmen class led by Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr., that took the Buckeyes all the way to the final game. Ohio State ran into a team on a mission for its second consecutive title, as the young Buckeyes couldn’t handle Joakim Noah, Al Horford and the rest of the Florida Gators.
Exactly 31 long weeks ago, on a Monday night in a city more sprawling than sprightly, two teams stepped onto an elevated court in front of 80,000 people in a football stadium and tipped off a game more memorable for its unsightliness than its beauty. Connecticut and Butler may not have won over many new fans with their combined 26.1% shooting on that warm spring evening, but as a certain blockbuster game that took place in Tuscaloosa over the weekend shows, teams who are better at stopping people from scoring rather than scoring themselves have a peculiar tendency to make the game ugly.
It Wasn't Pretty, But Counts Just the Same...
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, though, and even if the score had ended at 2-0, the sport’s 73d national champion was crowned that evening in Houston. A short 21 weeks from now, we’ll do it again. From this Monday night to that Monday night and 147 days in between, we’ll submit ourselves to the altar of the college basketball gods, genuflecting before a slate of over 5,000 games involving 345 Division I teams, each with a specific hope/delusion of grandeur of a shot to play on the next elevated court… in the next football stadium… at the next Final Four.
Zach Hayes and Brian Otskey are both RTC contributors and will converse on various pressing issues around college basketball all season long. Follow them on Twitter at @zhayes9 and @botskey.
Zach: The interminable college basketball offseason is on the brink of conclusion. I don’t know about you Brian, but when 7 PM rolls around tonight and St. John’s tips off against William & Mary on ESPNU, my life will become exponentially better.
There’s potential powerhouse teams in Chapel Hill, Lexington, Storrs and Columbus. Numerous lottery picks opted for another year on campus over jumping ship to the pros early. There’s a breadth of developed, refined seniors lining rosters of expected contenders. Until resolved, the NBA lockout will shine a bright spotlight on the college game. The Big East is once again stacked at the top, while wide open races will render the Big 12 and Pac-12 intriguing all season long. Needless to say, this is shaping up to be quite the memorable season.
We’d be remiss if we didn’t discuss North Carolina right off the bat. As soon as Harrison Barnes decided to spurn the NBA, expectations for Carolina vaulted to national championship or bust. Just nine months ago, the unranked Tar Heels lost at Georgia Tech by 20 to fall to 12-5 following a season that ended in the NIT. It’s been a remarkable turnaround in short order. Do you see any future pitfalls for this team? One has to be the lack of a backup point guard in case Kendall Marshall goes down. The other is outside shooting. Carolina made just 33% of their threes last season, but they have plenty of candidates to improve on that mark, from Barnes to a healthy Reggie Bullock to touted freshman P.J. Hairston. The third would be the one-and-done nature of the NCAA Tournament. Anything can happen in one 40-minute contest. Just ask Ohio State, a dominant team across the board a year ago that lost just two games at Purdue and Wisconsin during the regular season, but fell to a peaking Kentucky team in the Sweet Sixteen.
Carolina has to go into 2011-12 considered the best team in the nation, but I picked Kentucky to take home the title in my preseason Bracketology. I didn’t make the pick just because I like being contrarian and rebellious. I made the pick because I firmly believe that John Calipari finally has the ideal mix of experienced returnees and ultra-talented freshman to take the crown. Terrence Jones is bulked up, mature, focused and ready to be a Lamar Odom-type mismatch nightmare for opposing defenses. Doron Lamb shot 48% from three… as a freshman. I love the glue guy skill set that Darius Miller brings, even though the reigning SEC Tournament MVP can be so much more. I know what you’re thinking: freshman point guard. Gerry McNamara says hello. Marquis Teague is the real deal, blessed with a blazing first step and tremendous court vision. He’s also more of an ideal point guard for the dribble-drive motion offense that Calipari prefers than Brandon Knight, who was involved in much more high screening action to utilize his strong outside shot.
Terrence Jones' return is one reason Zach is bullish about Kentucky
Your thoughts on North Carolina and Kentucky? Can anyone seriously defend picking any other team in the nation to hoist the trophy in Indianapolis next April over these two?
Brian: You read my mind. Not only is Kentucky’s point guard a freshman, six of the eight players expected to see major minutes are freshmen or sophomores. You know I’m big on experience and to me that trumps talent in certain (not all) situations. I know many will disagree with that line of thinking. There are exceptions to every rule. Obviously this is a talented team and you’d be nuts not to put them in the preseason top three. However, don’t underestimate the loss of DeAndre Liggins and Josh Harrellson. Liggins was clearly Calipari’s best defender while Harrellson did all the dirty work in the paint. Terrence Jones can’t do all the rebounding by himself so somebody has to contribute in that regard with Harrellson out of the picture. It may not be much of a problem with Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Kyle Wiltjer coming in but I think it’s unreasonable to expect freshmen, even as talented as this group is, to consistently put forth that effort. They’ll need some time to adjust to the speed of the college game. Kentucky will go far in the postseason but I will most likely not pick them to win it all. When the pressure cranks up, even the most talented freshmen will get nervous. That’s what I think will hold UK back in the end.
Another preseason preview gives us reason to roll out the 2011-12 edition of Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball, our annual compendium of YouTube clips from the previous season 100% guaranteed to make you wish games were starting tonight. We’ve captured the most compelling moments from the 2010-11 season, many of which will bring back the goosebumps and some of which will leave you shaking your head in frustration. For the complete list of this year’s reasons, click here. Enjoy!
#1 – Where Welcome Back, Luther Happens
We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11 seasons.
Another preseason preview gives us reason to roll out the 2011-12 edition of Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball, our annual compendium of YouTube clips from the previous season 100% guaranteed to make you wish games were starting tonight. We’ve captured the most compelling moments from the 2010-11 season, many of which will bring back the goosebumps and some of which will leave you shaking your head in frustration. For the complete list of this year’s reasons, click here. Enjoy!
#2 – Where Campus Hysteria Happens
We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11 seasons.
Another preseason preview gives us reason to roll out the 2011-12 edition of Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball, our annual compendium of YouTube clips from the previous season 100% guaranteed to make you wish games were starting tonight. We’ve captured the most compelling moments from the 2010-11 season, many of which will bring back the goosebumps and some of which will leave you shaking your head in frustration. For the complete list of this year’s reasons, click here. Enjoy!
SPONSORED: Rush the Court is pleased to bring you a one-day fantasy college basketball league courtesy of FanDuel.com to tip off the season. The league, which is completely free to enter, starts on Tuesday, Nov. 15, and features $200 in prizes. Even better, if you beat our trained monkey that we’ve assigned to make our picks (username: RTCmonkey), you’ll win even more. Test your college hoops knowledge to win! Click here to enter.
#3 – Where Shaka the World Happens
We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11 seasons.
Matt Patton of RTC’s ACC Microsite is the RTC correspondent for the ACC. You can find him on Twitter @rise_and_fire.
Reader’s Take I
The ACC looks like it has three tiers this year. The top: North Carolina, Duke and Florida State. The bottom: Boston College, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. And then there’s everyone else.
Top Storylines
Can North Carolina Win Its Third Ring in the Roy Williams Era?: By all counts, yes. And to this point I haven’t heard any “undefeated” nonsense from anywhere, which means people’s expectations aren’t totally out to lunch. There are several other very good teams this year. Last year’s Tar Heel team wasn’t unstoppable, even at the end of the season (they lost to a #4 seed, remember?); I don’t expect them to be unstoppable this year, either. But if you’re looking for the most complete team with the fewest unknowns, you won’t find it anywhere else in college basketball. My one peeve with the offseason coverage of this team is the idea that four of the five starters should be first team All-ACC (or even All-American). There are only so many possessions in a basketball game. Only so many players can be integral. Part of the intimidating nature of this team on paper is that no one player controls the team’s fate: On any given night, Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller or John Henson are all candidates to blow up the scoreboard (though in Henson’s case, it’s usually keeping opponents off it). It’s the fact that the combination could be more than the sum of its parts that makes the Tar Heels a lock for preseason number one.
Another Season, Another Set of Huge Expectations in Chapel Hill
Will Florida State Challenge Tobacco Road And Make The ACC Interesting Again?: Yes. I was pretty low on Florida State for my summer update, but I’m currently very high on the Seminoles. Specifically, I think Bernard James is the best defender in the country (though John Henson is a significantly better rebounder), and Jeff Peterson will be able to find offense more effectively than Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen last season. Oh, and the Seminoles are also hungry after an ugly loss to VCU left them stranded in the Sweet Sixteen last year (and they then had to watch the Rams march on to the Final Four).
How Will This Year’s Batch Of New Coaches Fare?: I think Jim Larranaga will objectively perform the best, but I also think he has the most talent at his disposal. Against my better judgment, I’m warming up to this NC State team and Mark Gottfried’s leadership (at least for the first few years). As for Georgia Tech and Brian Gregory, yikes. There’s been a little recent buzz about the Yellow Jackets being better than people expect (which is a very low threshold), but I don’t see it. Gregory has an undermanned roster full of guys he didn’t recruit with nothing to speak of in the post, and he doesn’t have a dedicated home court. Not the combination for success. In College Park, Mark Turgeon should return Maryland to regular conference title contenders again once he reopens the pipeline to Washington, D.C., talent.
Another preseason preview gives us reason to roll out the 2011-12 edition of Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball, our annual compendium of YouTube clips from the previous season 100% guaranteed to make you wish games were starting tonight. We’ve captured the most compelling moments from the 2010-11 season, many of which will bring back the goosebumps and some of which will leave you shaking your head in frustration. For the complete list of this year’s reasons, click here. Enjoy!
SPONSORED: Rush the Court is pleased to bring you a one-day fantasy college basketball league courtesy of FanDuel.com to tip off the season. The league, which is completely free to enter, starts on Tuesday, Nov. 15, and features $200 in prizes. Even better, if you beat our trained monkey that we’ve assigned to make our picks (username: RTCmonkey), you’ll win even more. Test your college hoops knowledge to win! Click here to enter.
#4 – Where The Unthinkable Occurs… Twice Happens
We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11 seasons.
Question: Which Transfers Will Have the Biggest Impact This Season?
Every year, college basketball fans draw up their preseason predictions of conference champions and NCAA Tournament fields based on returning players and incoming recruits. But each year, a handful of key transfers play a pivotal role in leading their teams to a conference championship or NCAA Tournament bid. Which transfers are most likely to play that role this year?
Pierre Jackson and Gary Franklin, Baylor — With the return of Perry Jones and the addition of blue-chip recruits Quincy Miller and Deuce Bello (coming soon to an All-Name Team near you), expectations for the upcoming season in Waco are high. The Bears have more raw talent than almost anyone in the Big 12 and have a realistic shot at a conference crown. But Baylor also had quality talent and relatively high expectations last year, only to find their season upended by mediocrity at the most important spot on the floor — the point guard position. AJ Walton was thrust into the role of replacing Tweety Carter and responded by posting an obscene 32.1% turnover rate. In a not-unrelated phenomenon, the Bears finished the season ranked 322nd in Division I in team turnover percentage.
The Development of Franklin and/or Jackson Could Be the Difference-Maker for Baylor This Season
If Scott Drew can’t find someone to settle things down at the point this year, the Bears may disappoint again. And that’s where Jackson and Franklin come in. Jackson is a well-regarded JUCO transfer and Franklin a formerly touted recruit who transferred from Cal after just a semester. Franklin will not be eligible until the spring semester, but both will have a chance to pin down the starting point guard job. If either proves to be a stable floor general, the Bears could have their first conference championship in more than 60 years.
Iowa State’s Starting Lineup — Okay, so maybe the entire starting lineup won’t consist of transfers, but it might come close. Fred Hoiberg is trying to resuscitate the Iowa State program by resuscitating the careers of several D-I talents, including Chris Allen (Michigan State), Royce White (Minnesota), Anthony Booker (Southern Illinois), and Chris Babb (Penn State). They make this list as a group because collectively, they will have the single biggest transfer impact on any BCS program this year.
Steve Fetch of Rock Chalk Talk is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12. You can find him on Twitter @fetch9.
Reader’s Take I
Top Storylines
This is of course the last year for Texas A&M to leave its mark on the Big 12, and it could be Missouri’s as well. Both teams enter the 2011-12 season with serious conference title hopes, but each comes with some question marks. Missouri lost Laurence Bowers to an ACL injury, which really puts a strain on their interior depth. They didn’t rebound terribly well in the first place, ranking 317th nationally in defensive rebounding, and the loss of the 6’8” Bowers, who was their best returning player on the glass, won’t help. A&M meanwhile still has Khris Middleton, but do they have anyone to get him the ball? Dash Harris had a turnover rate of almost 30% last year and an assist rate of only 21%
Speaking of those two, the Big 12 has four new coaches this year, with Texas Tech and Oklahoma joining A&M and Missouri as teams with new head men. The Big 12 hasn’t had this many new coaches since 2007 when six of the twelve schools had first-year men on the job. I took a look at how coaches in the Big 12 have done in their first year on the job and compared it with the historical performances of the programs who have new coaches at the helm this season, and it looks like all four could be in for rough times initially.
Kansas has won at least a share of the last seven Big 12 titles, but in order or the Jayhawks to make it eight, Bill Self will have to do his best coaching job yet. He lost both the Morris twins and Josh Selby to the NBA, as well as the underrated Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar to graduation. What’s more, incoming freshmen Ben McLemore, Jamari Traylor and Braeden Anderson were all deemed ineligible. Kansas still has some talent to work with, especially Thomas Robinson, who had a tremendous summer.
Even Bill Self Has Admitted That This Season Will Be A Challenge For The Perennial Blueblood
Predicted Order of Finish
Kansas (14-4)
Baylor (13-5)
Missouri (13-5)
Texas A&M (12-6)
Oklahoma State (10-8)
Texas (9-9)
Iowa State (7-11)
Kansas State (5-13)
Oklahoma (4-14)
Texas Tech (3-15)
All-Conference Team (key stats from last season in parentheses)
