Three Questions Facing LSU After It Loses SEC Tournament Opener

Posted by David Changas on March 15th, 2019

When news broke before LSU’s regular season finale against Vanderbilt last weekend that coach Will Wade would be suspended as a result of his implication in possibly arranging a payment to secure the commitment of Javonte Smart, no one knew what impact it would have on a team that was set to clinch the SEC championship. A comfortable win over the woeful Commodores did just that, and despite Smart being held out for precautionary reasons, the first real test for the Tigers would come against Florida on Friday. After appearing to be well on their way to passing it in racing out to a 10-point halftime lead, a more aggressive – and perhaps more desperate – Gators squad pulled off a 73-70 upset behind a last-second three-pointer from freshman Andrew Nembhard. Now, LSU heads to the NCAA Tournament, where it likely will be slotted as a #2 or #3 seed, with a number of unanswered questions.

LSU Interim Coach Tony Benford has a tall task ahead of him. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
  1. How significant will Wade’s absence on the sidelines be during games? LSU was clearly ready to play on Friday, as it came out with energy and worked to get the ball inside — where it had a decided advantage — early in the game. When things started to go wrong in the second half, though, interim coach Tony Benford did not appear up to the challenge of keeping the Tigers calm. The Tigers led by three points when Naz Reed was called for running through a Florida screen. A tick after the whistle, Florida hit a three, which the referees inexplicably counted. What was already a disastrous possession was then made worse when Benford picked up a technical foul, ultimately contributing to a six-point trip that changed the entire complexion of the game. Benford was justified in his outrage, of course, but he admitted afterward that he deserved the technical, and that he should have shown the restraint necessary to avoid the technical. His lack of experience in that situation clearly hurt the Tigers today.
  2. Will the LSU players tune out their new coach? Who knows what is to become of LSU after this bizarre season ends, and whether it even matters if they continue to win given the possibility of everything being vacated. With a talented group of players who could be ready to leave school in the aftermath of Wade’s likely dismissal, perhaps they will tune out Benford, who has been put in an untenable position. The players deny that they will, but would anyone really be surprised if the Tigers turned their 16-2 SEC record into an early departure from the NCAA Tournament?
  3. Will the Tigers get any calls? Based upon the aforementioned circumstance, as well as officiating as a whole on Friday, the early answer is no. LSU was called for 24 fouls, while Florida was whistled for only 10. This was the case despite LSU being the more aggressive team, and the Gators taking 28 threes (nine more than the Tigers). After the game, Benford seemed resigned to the fact that this type of officiating is what his team can expect going forward. “We’re not going to get any calls. I heard guys [say] when there’s an interim coach, you’re not getting any calls. I thought they fouled, we fouled some. They got the calls, we didn’t get the calls.” Based on the numbers, he is correct. But his belief that this will continue also likely is accurate, and that could spell trouble for the Tigers when the games really count.

LSU’s situation is unlike anything we have seen in college basketball in the recent past. For a supremely talented team to lose its coach under these circumstances with one game left in the regular season is essentially unprecedented. Whether the Tigers can overcome all that has been put in front of them is an open question, but there is no doubt that they have a significant hill to climb.

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Thursday in NYC: Takeaways from the Big East Quarterfinals

Posted by Justin Kundrat on March 15th, 2019

Hard to believe that the Big East tournament is already underway — it felt like just yesterday that Villanova was cutting down the nets at Madison Square Garden. While the conference as a whole may be down this year, the tournament to date has offered no shortage of drama. Here are some of the major takeaways from Thursday’s quarterfinals action.

Myles Powell Dropped 31 Points in Leading Seton Hall Over Georgetown (USA Today Images)
  • Villanova’s offense sputtered its way to the finish line on Thursday afternoon, but the Wildcats ultimately got the result they needed. Based on its record and metrics, Providence, however, was perhaps written off a bit too quickly. The Friars’ offense was the worst in Ed Cooley‘s tenure, per KenPom, but the defense featured ample perimeter length that gave plenty of backcourt-oriented teams problems. So it shouldn’t be surprising that Villanova struggled to generate offense, amassing just 1.00 points per possession on 10-of-31 three-point shooting. The Wildcats will face a similarly constructed team in Xavier Friday night and the result could very well be different if Villanova fails to revitalize its dribble-drive offense.
  • Speaking of the Musketeers, they were flat out terrific on the defensive end today against Creighton. The 63-61 win effectively crushed Creighton’s NCAA Tournament hopes while keeping Xavier alive for same. The game featured a contrast in styles: a guard-heavy perimeter-oriented offense versus one that bullies opponents on the glass and around the basket. While the teams split the season series, it was won on the glass today by Zach Hankins. The 6’11” big man nearly set a season high with 22 points and nine rebounds, but more impressively, the defense was suffocating and good at getting back to prevent transition baskets. Throughout the second half, Xavier excelled in denying perimeter passes to eliminate any offensive fluidity, quickly closing out on shooters and letting Hankins disrupt any attempt to attack the rim. When it was all said and done, Xavier held Creighton to 0.91 points per possession, well below its average of 1.13 PPP.
  • Following a 32-point beat-down by Marquette, St. John’s may have just played its way out of the NCAA Tournament field. After bursting onto the scene with a 14-1 start and a short-lived Top 25 appearance, the Red Storm finished 10-10 against Quadrant One/Two teams. When all is said and done, they might end up with a NET somewhere in the 70s, which simply won’t be sufficient to result in an NCAA Tournament bid. If they don’t make the cut, the seat under Chris Mullin will get awfully warm…
  • It goes without saying then that Marquette looked unstoppable tonight, shooting 11-of-23 from deep and suppressing every run the Red Storm could throw at them. Big East player of the year Markus Howard continued his theatrics with 30 points — if you see Marquette on the TV guide, turn over the channel.
  • Amid a flurry of Georgetown turnovers, Seton Hall capitalized and easily took care of business in the nightcap. If there was any doubt about whether the Pirates would be again playing in the NCAA Tournament, a resounding 16-point victory over Georgetown erased those concerns. Winners of three straight, Kevin Willard‘s group is arguably playing their best basketball of the season, and will seek to further boost their seeding with a win over Marquette on Friday night. When their defense is fueling their offense like it is now, the Pirates will be a tough out.
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ACC Tournament Takeaways: Thursday Evening

Posted by Brad Jenkins on March 14th, 2019

RTC’s Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) will be reporting live from Charlotte at the 2019 ACC Tournament through Saturday’s championship game.

Zion Williamson looked strong in his return to the floor in the ACC Tournament. (Getty Images)

Here are a few thoughts on the four teams from today’s evening session at the ACC Tournament.

  • North Carolina (27-5): The Tar Heels are a very confident team right now and with good reason. After dispatching Louisville, 83-70, in Thursday’s quarterfinals, North Carolina has won 15 of its last 16 outings and is still in contention to grab a #1 seed in the upcoming Big Dance. Although the Cardinals stayed within striking distance for most of tonight’s game, it never felt like the outcome was in doubt. Freshman point guard Coby White continued his recent outstanding play for Roy Williams, finishing with 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists. The Tar Heels will get a chance at the rare three-game season sweep of archrival Duke in Friday night’s semifinals.
  • Louisville (20-13): After losing five or its last six February outings, the Cardinals appear to have somewhat righted the ship. They closed the regular season with a comfortable win over Notre Dame followed by a narrow defeat at top-seed Virginia. In Charlotte, Louisville blew out the Fighting Irish on Wednesday and gave a good account of themselves against North Carolina, one of hottest teams in the country. Most bracketologists forecast Chris Mack’s club as a #6 or #7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, meaning they would likely face a high-caliber team in the second round. Mack hopes that the six games his squad has already played against North Carolina, Virginia and Duke have prepared it for such a challenge.
  • Duke (27-5): He’s back! But that doesn’t mean everything is OK with Duke going forward. In his much anticipated return from a knee injury that caused him to miss six games, Zion Williamson exploded out of the gate to lead the Blue Devils to a big early lead. In the first half alone, he scored 21 points on 9-for-9 shooting, grabbed nine rebounds and came up with five steals. But while Williamson’s presence helps Duke in many areas, it doesn’t alter the team’s glaring flaws — namely, shooting and the propensity to collect offensive fouls. In its 84-72 win over Syracuse, the Blue Devils made 30.4 percent of their threes, shot 67.9 percent from the foul line and committed 18 turnovers — many of those coming on charges. They’ll have to be better than that to knock off North Carolina on Friday night, in what will be one of the most anticipated semifinal matchups in ACC Tournament history.
  • Syracuse (20-13): This was always going to be an uphill battle for the Orange, especially when star Tyus Battle was unable to suit up due to a sore back. Without its best offensive player, Syracuse struggled mightily to score against Duke’s pressure early. But they settled down after that, storming back catch the Blue Devils in the second half before fading down the stretch. The Orange had one of their best outside shooting nights of the year, making 9-of-21 from deep and they have to be encouraged at the development of the coach’s son, Buddy Boeheim. Starting in place of Battle, the freshman put together back-to-back strong outings in Charlotte, including 15 points against Duke. Jim Boeheim indicated that Battle should be ready to go in a few days, so he should be available for the start of the NCAA Tournament. That’s good news for a team that’s likely to end up with a #9 or #10 seed, which guarantees that the Orange will be facing a good First Round opponent.
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Big 12 Tournament Storylines To Follow

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 13th, 2019

This year’s Big 12 Tournament will have a different feel to it than those of recent memory. For the first time since 2005, Kansas will not enter the event as the regular season champion; and coincidentally enough, that year was also the last time that Texas Tech advanced to the championship game. The Red Raiders lost to Oklahoma State that year, but they are the clear favorite to cut down the nets in Kansas City this weekend. It’s easy to see The Streak ending as the biggest takeaway from this Big 12 season, but there’s still some conference intrigue left between now and Selection Sunday. Let’s get to it.

Jarrett Culver is licking his chops at the opportunity to deliver Texas Tech’s first Big 12 tournament championship. (Charlie Neibergall/AP)

Texas Tech looks to ride the wave. The Red Raiders are the clear favorite this week, and for plenty of reasons. Not only are they the conference’s best team with the nation’s best defense and the Big 12’s best player in Jarrett Culver, but they also have one of college basketball’s best coaches in Chris Beard. On top of all of that, they’ve won nine in a row and 11 of their last 12 with an offense that has significantly improved. Additionally, among the serious contenders to take home the trophy this weekend, Texas Tech is the only team that has its full complement of players healthy and available. So take your pick. Sure, anything can happen in a single-elimination setting on a neutral floor, but if you’re looking for a bold prediction about which team will cut down the Sprint Center nets, you won’t find it here.

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Big East Q&A: Conference Tournament Edition

Posted by Justin Kundrat and Brian Otskey on March 13th, 2019

Finally, conference tournament week is upon us. Big East microsite writers Justin Kundrat and Brian Otskey teamed up this week to break down several of the conference’s key questions heading into the Big East tournament.

BO: How concerned should we be by Marquette’s late season slide?

What’s Going On With Marquette? (USA Today Images)

JK: I said last week that we shouldn’t be concerned — that it was just a late season stumble. And while a home loss to Georgetown had me rethinking that, I’m going to stand by it. Marquette was hampered by woeful offense in its initial three-game stretch, and completely turned things around on that end against Georgetown (its 1.14 points per possession was in line with its season average). I understand the tendency to worry after a four-game skid, though — particularly this time of year — but nothing has fundamentally changed with this team. Its problem appears to be mental. With a much improved defense to weather the poor shooting nights, things should course correct this week in New York.

BO: Did Seton Hall truly turn a corner last week heading into the postseason or was its more focused play a result of desperation?

JK: This is a team I will never figure out. Just when I started to buy in earlier this season, the Pirates sputtered to a 3-5 start in conference play; and when I wrote them off at 7-9 a few weeks ago, they proceeded to collect consecutive wins against Marquette and Villanova. The crazy thing is that the two games followed completely different narratives. Against Marquette, Seton Hall was down by 13 points with 10 minutes left before Myles Powell poured in 17 points in that span. It was a good win, but supported the theory that Seton Hall relies too heavily on Powell and cannot compete if other players are forced to score. Yet against Villanova, it was in fact the Pirates’ role players that propelled them to their third most efficient scoring game of the season. At their best, Seton Hall looks like a Top 25 team that can hang with anyone in college basketball, but its consistency gives me pause. Let’s see how this week turns out before making a final ruling.

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ACC Conversation: Regular Season Recap

Posted by The ACC Team on March 12th, 2019

Rush the Court ACC microsite writers Brad Jenkins, Matt Auerbach and Mick McDonald take a look back at the regular season, including the All-ACC selections, and look ahead to the ACC Tournament.

Virginia and North Carolina Finished 1/2 in the ACC Standings (USA Today Images)

Brad Jenkins: Guys, it’s been a solid regular season. For the most part, predictions held to form. Before we look at the ACC awards, any thoughts on how the conference season went?

Matt Auerbach: I think, speaking for all of us, the season pretty much held to form. The top three teams were a cut above the rest — quite possibly the three best teams in the country. Florida State and Virginia Tech were just a notch below that group, but both teams are viable threats to advance deep into the NCAA Tournament. For me, the middle and bottom of the conference was a lot weaker than expected. I knew the top three would separate themselves because they are all so elite, but the bottom of the league was often times non-competitive.

Mick McDonald: I think it was about as expected. I thought Mike Brey would get more out of a young Notre Dame team than he did, but Rex Pflueger‘s injury early in the year basically ended any chance of the Fighting Irish being interesting.

Brad Jenkins: Yeah, injuries and suspensions really curtailed the seasons at Notre Dame and Miami. Does that make Syracuse the biggest disappointment?

Mick McDonald: They definitely are for Matt!

Matt Auerbach: For me, without question!

Mick McDonald: I think Clemson should be on that list too, though. The Tigers brought a lot back from a Sweet Sixteen team and are as on the bubble as you can possibly be heading into the ACC Tournament.

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2018-19 RTC16: Week Sixteen

Posted by Walker Carey on March 11th, 2019

The final week of the regular season rarely disappoints, and last week was no exception as a number of conference champions were determined and several teams distinguished themselves as serious contenders for an NCAA Tournament title. #1 Virginia and #3 North Carolina each clinched a share of the regular season ACC crown with home victories on Saturday. The Cavaliers continued their dominance over Louisville with a 73-68 win, while the Tar Heels completed their season sweep of rival #5 Duke with a comfortable 79-70 victory. For the first time since 2004, a team other than Kansas was crowned as the Big 12 champion, so it only makes sense that two teams conspired to snatch the title from the Jayhawks. #6 Texas Tech grabbed its share of the league crown with an 80-73 road win at Iowa State, while #14 Kansas State joined the Red Raiders in the champion’s circle with a resounding 68-53 besting of Oklahoma. The Big Ten also crowned co-regular season champions, as #6 Michigan State clinched its share by earning a season sweep of intrastate rival #10 Michigan, following #12 Purdue winning its claim on the crown at Northwestern. Those regular season champions should be seen as the main contenders to take home conference tournament titles this week, but Championship Week is known for its surprising results, so it would be premature to already declare which teams will be cutting down the nets. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

  • Gonzaga and Virginia finish the regular season at #1. The Bulldogs and Cavaliers both finished sterling regular seasons, with each club finishing with just two losses. Gonzaga enters WCC Tournament play tonight as the clear favorite. The Bulldogs did not lose a conference game all season and it would take a sizable upset in Las Vegas to knock them down. Furthermore, Mark Few‘s club may be poised to get stronger as injured forward Killian Tillie recently joined his teammates for extended practice time and appear likely to return for the postseason. Virginia will begin its defense of its 2018 ACC Tournament title on Thursday, using a 16-0 league record against non-Duke opponents to seal the top seed. With the title game being the only chance of a third meeting with the Blue Devils, it would not be a stretch to expect Virginia to advance to the main event in Charlotte on Saturday night.
  • #9 LSU won the outright SEC title despite a tumultuous week. The Tigers clinched the outright SEC regular season title on Saturday night with a 21-point victory over Vanderbilt. The mood around the program should have been celebratory, but with a story breaking on Thursday that head coach Will Wade had been caught in an FBI wiretap discussing an offer to then-recruit Javonte Smart, and LSU’s subsequent suspension of Wade on Friday, the Tigers have a lot of uncertainty hanging over their heads. If it is determined that Wade participated in nefarious conduct, LSU will almost certainly have to vacate the SEC title and any other accomplishments from this season. Even with all these distractions, the Tigers looked like a focused team on Saturday. Interim coach Tony Benford possesses the tall task of making sure that focus carries over into the postseason.
  • #11 Houston deserves more credit for its 29-2 regular season. It makes sense that a team from the American has not received the same level of national attention as teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, etc., but the season turned in by Kelvin Sampson‘s Cougars must be acknowledged. Houston just finished a regular season featuring 29 regular season victories with its only two losses coming by a combined nine points. The Cougars rank among the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and senior guard Corey Davis, Jr. has emerged as one the country’s most dynamic scorers. Houston has not advanced to the Sweet Sixteen since 1984, but this season looks like the program’s best chance to end that drought.

Tournament of the Week. ACC Tournament – March 12-16 in Charlotte. The most anticipated conference tournament has to be the one that features three top-five teams in #1 Virginia, #3 North Carolina, and #5 Duke. While the Cavaliers and Tar Heels are the top two seeds, the story of the tournament will be the expected return of freshman phenom Zion Williamson for third-seeded Duke. If Williamson returns healthy from his knee injury, the Blue Devils project to have a semifinal date with North Carolina on Friday before a potential title game match-up with Virginia. If you are looking for a sleeper here, look no further than #4 seed Florida State. The Seminoles have played excellent basketball for the last six weeks, losing only once since January 20.

Keep Tabs On. It is a good idea to keep tabs on any and all action that takes place this week. Championship Week is the best appetizer for the smorgasbord that is the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Conference Call: ACC (4), Big 12 (3), Big Ten (3), SEC (2), WCC (1), Mountain West (1), AAC (1), MAC (1).

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Final Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins on March 11th, 2019

Here is the final edition of our weekly view at the current ACC standings with a focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their conference records may indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to share a few interesting notes on teams, statistics, and trends around the conference. With the regular season in the books, this week we will compare how each ACC squad performed in the second half of league play, with an eye on the teams that might excel in the ACC Tournament in Charlotte. Finally, we will examine the ACC standings and project what it may mean for teams’ ultimate postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Saturday, March 9.

Final Standings

Congratulations are in order for Virginia, which accomplished something this season that no ACC school has done in over a decade. Tony Bennett‘s club posted both the best offense and defense, the first league squad to lead the conference in each metric since North Carolina turned the trick in back-to-back seasons (2007 and 2008). The Cavaliers won the defensive crown for the fifth time in the past six years, while simultaneously trotting out the best offense of Bennett’s career in Charlottesville. Virginia’s shooting acumen has been the main driver to its offensive prowess — the Cavaliers made 43.1 percent of their three-pointers in league play, which represents the ACC’s best mark of the KenPom era. Co-regular season champion North Carolina used a balanced attack to finish with the league’s second-best offense — the Tar Heels finished among the top five in two-point shooting, three-point accuracy, offensive rebounding and turnover percentage. Brad Brownell also deserves credit for the performance of Clemson’s defense, which finished second in the ACC, ahead of more acclaimed units from Florida State and Duke.

Advanced Stat of the Week: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not

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What’s Trending: Conference Week Madness is Underway!

Posted by Matt Eisenberg on March 11th, 2019

What’s Trending is a column examining the week that was in college basketball social media. Matthew Eisenberg (@matteise) is your weekly host.

Let the NCAA Tournament ticket punching begin!

https://twitter.com/br_CBB/status/1104579515672678401

Jon Rothstein eloquently describes the month of March perfectly. It’s time to sit back and enjoy all that college basketball will bring us…

After 14 consecutive years at the top of the Big 12, Kansas‘ reign as the conference’s top team finally came to an end. In an era of college basketball where anything is possible, the longevity of the Jayhawks’ streak was beyond remarkable…

I
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Ten Questions to Consider: Regular Season Comes to a Close

Posted by Matt Eisenberg on March 8th, 2019

With several conferences already in the midst of tournament action and others still wrapping up regular season play, this weekend is setting up to be a great warm-up for the upcoming wall-to-wall action. Here are 10 questions I have for a set of games that could set the tone for the next few weeks.

Will He or Won’t He? (USA Today Images)
  1. If Zion Williamson is held out against North Carolina, will Duke be looking at a similar result? (Duke @ North Carolina, Saturday 6 PM EST, ESPN) Duke’s defense surrendered 58 points to the Tar Heels’ duo of Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson a few weeks ago. The Blue Devils allowed a total of 88 points despite North Carolina shooting a season-worst 10 percent from deep.
  2. Will Michigan have any luck slowing down Cassius Winston? (Michigan @ Michigan State, Saturday 8 PM EST, ESPN) In Michigan State’s win in Ann Arbor, Cassius Winston scored 27 points, with 19 of those coming in the second half. In that particular match-up, the Spartans turned the ball over at a season low rate of just 9.6 percent.
  3. Which Carsen Edwards shows up for Purdue as the Boilermakers look for a share (or more) of the Big Ten regular season title? (Purdue @ Northwestern, Saturday 2:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network) After shooting a robust 41.7 percent on his three-point attempts last season in league play, Purdue’s Carsen Edwards is shooting just 30.2 percent in Big Ten games this season. In Purdue’s four league losses, Edwards has shot an icy 19.6 percent from beyond the arc.
  4. Can San Diego State get the best of Nevada again? (Nevada @ San Diego State, Saturday 10:30 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) The Aztecs have won three consecutive games against Nevada, including an inspiring victory in San Diego two weeks ago. Brian Dutcher’s team forced 10 first half turnovers in that game, which led to a 17-3 edge in points off turnovers over the opening 20 minutes.
  5. Is Anthony Cowan the barometer of success for Maryland? (Minnesota @ Maryland, Friday 7 PM EST, Fox Sports 1) In Maryland’s 21 wins this season, Anthony Cowan is shooting 41.8 percent from beyond the arc; but in the Terrapins nine losses, Cowan is shooting just 28.6 percent. The junior has shot a mere 1-of-11 from distance in the Terps’ last two games, both losses.
  6. Will the Big South’s best get revenge in the conference’s semifinal match-up? (Radford vs. Charleston Southern, Friday 6 PM EST, ESPN+) The Big South’s top seed Radford trailed at the half in its opening round win against Presbyterian, but the Highlanders take on Charleston Southern next, a team that recently beat Radford by a single point. Made shots were far from plentiful in that game, however, as Charleston Southern went 5-of-25 from inside the arc and Radford was just 5-of-28 on its three-point attempts.
  7. How will Virginia Tech respond to its midweek collapse at Florida State? (Miami @ Virginia Tech, Friday 7 PM EST, ESPN2) The Hokies led by 14 points in the second half at Florida State before ultimately losing to the Seminoles in overtime. Virginia Tech’s bench was outscored 28-0 in regulation and has tallied just 31 points combined in the team’s six conference losses.
  8. Can Louisville put together a full 40-minute effort against Virginia? (Louisville @ Virginia, Saturday 4 PM EST, ESPN) While Louisville was +30 from behind the arc in its February loss to Virginia, the Cavaliers owned a 38-4 advantage in the paint. The Cardinals held Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome without a single three-point make, but the duo of De’Andre Hunter and Mamadi Diakite put together a 40-point performance.
  9. Will Arizona State avoid disaster against Arizona? (Arizona State @ Arizona, Saturday 4 PM EST, CBS) While the Pac-12 is likely going to be given no favors come Selection Sunday, a conference record of 12-6 with non-conference wins against Kansas and Mississippi State would seemingly put the Sun Devils in good shape. A loss against struggling intrastate rival Arizona, however, could easily send Bobby Hurley’s squad to the wrong side of the bubble.
  10. Where will conference tournament chaos break out? With nine conferences in tournament action this weekend, it’s not a matter of if chaos will ensue, but when and where. Four tournament tickets will be punched over the weekend, but will the top seeds prevail? A potential Ohio Valley Conference title game between Belmont and Murray State would be must-see mid-major television.
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