Set Your Tivo: 02.23.10

Posted by THager on February 23rd, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#13 Georgetown @ Louisville – 7 pm on ESPN2 (***)

For how large the gap is between their rankings, Georgetown is not that much better of a team than Louisville.  Georgetown is still aiming for a #3 seed in the Tournament, while Louisville still has some work to do.  However, Louisville is a game ahead of the Hoyas in the Big East standings, and with a victory tonight they will have more wins on the year than Georgetown.  UL has all the momentum, as they are coming off of three straight conference wins and the Hoyas have not won since February 9.  Louisville’s main concern will be guarding the Hoyas, as the Cardinals’ #80-ranked defense will be going up against a Georgetown team that shoots 50% from the floor as a team.  They Hoyas are trying to rebound from a rough performance against Syracuse in which they missed 40 shots and Julian Vaughn was held scoreless.  The Cardinals have a solid offense as well, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency, but they are going to need more help from players other than Samardo Samuels and Edgar SosaJerry Smith is their third leading scorer, but he hasn’t scored more than seven points in a game since February 6.  The Hoyas have lost two straight games, but their second half performance against Syracuse may indicate that they have come out of their slump, and they should get back on track tonight.

#6 Kansas State @ Texas Tech – 8 pm on ESPN360 (**)

The Wildcats have quietly been working towards a potential #2 seed the last few weeks, winning their last five games against the bottom of the Big 12.  Texas Tech, who has lost three straight games to most likely kill their at-large tournament hopes, is now among the worst teams in the conference.  Had the Red Raiders pulled out their recent games against Oklahoma State and Texas, they would have looked like a much more formidable opponent at 18-8, so this game won’t likely be a blowout.  Nevertheless, the Red Raiders are going to have to step up their defense if they want to keep this game close.  Their defense, which ranks #97 in efficiency, has allowed their last four opponents to shoot over 40% from the field, including a road game against Baylor in which they allowed the Bears to make 55% of their shots.  Kansas State, led by Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente, features four legitimate scorers and ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, so they will likely capitalize on any defensive miscues that Texas Tech makes.  Although the Red Raiders don’t have the best offense by any stretch, they shoot almost 39% from the three-point line, and can at least keep the game within reach if they hit their shots.  Against Baylor, they made 8 of their 13 three-pointers, so this game may largely hinge on their three-point shooting.  KSU has a solid defense, and given that Texas Tech dropped their last two home games, I don’t think the home crowd will play much of a factor tonight.

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Set Your Tivo: 02.22.10

Posted by THager on February 22nd, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#8 West Virginia @ Connecticut – 7:00 pm on ESPN (****)

Ebanks & Friends Will Have Their Hands Full Tonight

Could UConn be playing themselves back in the tournament?  With two straight wins, including a road win at Villanova, the Huskies have at least made an appearance on Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology as part of his “next four out.”  With a win over West Virginia, they could make a jump towards the “first four out” and with three winnable games remaining, the Huskies could still make a charge toward a tournament bid.  One of the reasons for their recent success is the spark they have had in their offense, which is ranked just #75 in efficiency.  They shot 48% in each of their last two games, and scored their highest totals since their upset over Texas last month.   Their roster actually matches up well with West Virginia’s tall lineup.  Five of West Virginia’s top six scorers are forwards, and five of UConn’s top seven players are either forwards or centers.  WVU ranks third in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive rankings, but with an equally big lineup, the Huskies average more rebounds and blocks per game, so if the Huskies can beat West Virginia at their own game, they have an excellent chance to win.  However, we should not get ahead of ourselves, as West Virginia is a potential #2 seed in the NCAA tournament, and have also won two consecutive games of their own.  The Mountaineers will have their hands full against a UConn team that is coming on strong.

Oklahoma @ #1 Kansas  – 9:00 pm on ESPN (**)

This has the feel of one of those games ESPN selected long before the season began.  There are no indications that would leave any fan to think Oklahoma would lose this game by less than 10 points.  They rank #56 in offensive efficiency and #176 in Pomeroy’s defensive rankings, while Kansas is the only team in the country to rank in the top five in both.  The Jayhawks are also the only team that ranks in the top five in rebounds and assists per game.  Oklahoma will be playing on the road, where they are 1-8 this year, and Kansas has won 58 consecutive games at Allen Fieldhouse.  The Sooners have not lost a road game by less than ten points since January 19, and Kansas has not won a home game by less than ten points since the day after that.  Oklahoma has more scorers averaging in double figures, but I don’t think it will matter against a team this deep and balanced.  Kansas may be the only team in the country that has too many good players, and they have won 12 straight games, so look for Kansas to win by a healthy margin.

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RTC Live: Northwestern @ Wisconsin

Posted by THager on February 21st, 2010

Both of these teams need to bounce back quick after disappointing losses.  Wisconsin ruined their Big Ten title hopes with a road loss at Minnesota, and Northwestern damaged their tournament status with a home loss against Penn State.  Wisconsin usually excels at the Kohl Center, but Illinois recently broke Bo Ryan’s streak of never losing a home game to an unranked Big Ten team.  Jon Leuer is back for Wisconsin, and they will need significant improvement from him if they want to win this afternoon.  He shot just 2-12 against Minnesota, and some fans are starting to question if he came back too soon.  Wisconsin is a legitimate tournament team, but if they don’t step up their game, they could be in danger of falling out of the top 25.  As for the Wildcats, they may need to win their conference tournament if they lose today.  Join us at 1 pm on RTC Live to find out which team makes a statement.

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Set Your Tivo 02.21.10

Posted by THager on February 21st, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#12 Ohio State @ #11 Michigan State – 12 pm on CBS (****)

Kalin Lucas Leads the Spartans Against OSU

The Buckeyes blew a golden opportunity to advance in the Big Ten standings when they lost at home to Purdue last week, but they have another great chance this afternoon against possibly the best team in the conference.  They are still only one game behind the Spartans in the standings, and if they can beat Michigan State on the road, they are once again in the running to win the Big Ten title.  In addition to potentially deciding the conference champion, Big Ten player of the year honors may also be on the line, as Evan Turner will try to wrest the POY award away from Kalin Lucas.  Both players have suffered injuries this year, but appear to now be at 100% for this game.  With Turner in the lineup, the Buckeyes are a completely different team with his ability to create shots for himself and find open players.  They rank #13 in offensive efficiency, and are third in the country in two-point field goal percentage, so the Spartans may have a tough time defending them (MSU is #41 in defensive efficiency).  These teams play different styles, as OSU uses a guard-heavy lineup and three of MSU’s top scorers are forwards, so I expect the Spartans to exploit the Buckeyes in the paint.  Among Ohio State’s top four scorers, no player is taller than Turner at 6’7, so Raymar Morgan and Draymond Green may try to carry their team at home.  Michigan State is 13-1 at home this year, and shoots over 53% from inside the arc, so look for the bigger team to take one step closer to a Big Ten title.

#3 Villanova @ #19 Pittsburgh – 12 pm on CBS (****)

If somebody told you two weeks ago that entering the Villanova vs. Pitt game, one of these teams would be coming off a loss and the other was in the midst of a four-game winning streak, that wouldn’t surprise too many people.  What does surprise fans is that the losing team is Villanova, while the Panthers seem to be firing on all cylinders.  Pitt had lost four of their five games from January 20 to February 3, but now has wins over three quality teams since that slump, with victories over Seton Hall, West Virginia and Marquette.  These teams have not met since their classic last year in the NCAA Tournament, when Scottie Reynolds sent the Wildcats to the Final Four with a last second shot.  Reynolds has carried his great play into this season, and shoots 49% from the field, an impressive percentage for a smallish guard.  Pitt’s Ashton Gibbs, on the other hand, had no points in their last game against Marquette, and will have to be a contributor for the Panthers to have a chance in this game.   This contest may come down to Villanova’s unbalanced play, as they rank fifth in offensive efficiency but are #68 in Pomeroy’s defensive rankings.  Their points per game is also deceiving, as they only rank 45th in field goal percentage, so look for the Panthers to at least give Villanova a run for their money at home.

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Set Your Tivo: 02.20.10

Posted by THager on February 20th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Siena @ #13 Butler – 11 am on ESPN 2 (****)

Butler Will Have Their Hands Full With Siena

ESPN picked a fantastic matchup for their Bracketbuster weekend.  When Siena’s 14-game winning streak (tied for third in the country) came to an end last week against Niagara, Butler took their place as the hottest team in the country.  Butler has the longest current winning streak at the nation at 16 games, and they have shown no signs of slowing down.  They haven’t lost at Hinkle Fieldhouse this year, and are now ranked #13 in the country.  Siena has four scorers averaging at least 13.6 points per game, but their offense will be severely limited by Butler’s style of play.  The Bulldogs aren’t the best team in the country (#32 in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy) but they are able to slow the pace down enough that they have not given up 60 points in their last four games, and haven’t given up 70 points since a loss to Georgetown in early December.  Both teams have struggled to come up with big wins this year, having lost to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, Temple, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa.  The difference is that all of Butler’s losses were by single digits and Siena’s last three losses were by at least 10 points.  Butler has four double-digit scorers of their own, and if Siena’s #87 ranked defense fails to guard the Bulldogs, they won’t stand much of a chance because Butler doesn’t turn the ball over that often.  This matchup should be highly entertaining, but considering Siena is coming off of a bad loss and Hinkle Fieldhouse is a tough place to play, the Bulldogs should push their winning streak on to the NCAA tournament.

Georgia Tech @ Maryland – 2 pm on ESPN 360 (**)

Both of these teams responded from tough losses recently, and have played like they can either run the table or lose several of their remaining games.  These squads have been lingering just inside or outside the top 25 for a large part of the season, but with their recent losses they are not only fighting to get back in the polls, they are trying ensure a tournament bid as well.   Joe Lunardi has both of these teams in the dance right now, but another loss for Georgia Tech would mean they will have lost half of their last 14 games.  Although Maryland is one of the more balanced teams in the ACC, ranking in the top 20 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency, Georgia Tech has one of the best defenses in the country (#6 according to Ken Pomeroy) but one of the worst offenses (#81).  In their last two losses, the Yellow Jackets failed to shoot 40% from the field, and have not show much consistency since their 11-2 start.  They Yellow Jackets use a big lineup, as four of their top five scorers are forwards.  Three of Maryland’s top four scorers are guards, and it could make for some interesting matchups as these teams have not faced each other yet this year.  Given that the Yellow Jackets have lost six out of their last seven road games, look for Maryland to solidify their tournament status with a win in College Park.

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Set Your Tivo 02.18.10

Posted by THager on February 18th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#5 Syracuse @ #10 Georgetown – 7 pm on ESPN (*****)

Wes Johnson Looks to Go 2-0 vs. the Hoyas (D. Nett)

We mentioned last week that Syracuse’s matchup against Louisville could be a trap game with Georgetown on the horizon, and the Orange responded with a 60-point performance in a home loss.  Now Syracuse will get their chance to play the Hoyas who are coming off an equally embarrassing defeat.  Although Georgetown had won three of their previous four games (with wins against Duke and Villanova), they then gave up an easy game at Rutgers who sits at just 4-8 in the Big East.  Both teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament, but a win here could help a team improve their tournament status as well as help build their confidence back up.  This game could be high scoring, as the Orange rank #1 in the country in field goal percentage, while Georgetown ranks third.  However, the last time these teams met at the Carrier Dome, the Orange scored just 73 points despite 53% shooting, while the Hoyas failed to score 30 points in either half.  Syracuse has a tall lineup, but they rank second in assists per game and can run the court with almost any team.  The biggest hindrance to the Orange is the lingering effect of Wesley Johnson’s injury to his back/hip.  He is now just 13-33 since the Providence game on February 2 when he flipped in mid-air and landed hard on the court.  To get a feel for how effective Johnson was before the injury, he was 33-61 in his previous five games.  The Hoyas have shown the ability to light up great teams at home this season, so they certainly have a great opportunity to end Syracuse’s undefeated road streak.

#16 Wisconsin @ Minnesota – 9 pm on ESPN (***)

Minnesota is now certainly on the outside looking in after a recent loss to Northwestern, and will need to go nearly 6-0 in the remaining games if they want to dance in a few weeks.  The Gophers are just 3-7 since January 5, and are eighth in the conference behind other probable NIT teams like Michigan.  Wisconsin missed a golden opportunity to jump atop the Big Ten standings with a loss against Illinois last week, but they are still just 1.5 games behind Michigan State for the conference lead.  Minnesota is going to have to play one of their best games of the season tonight, because the Badgers won’t beat themselves.  They are the best team in America in turnovers per game, and are in the top five in opponents’ points per game.  Thanks to solid efficiency on both ends of the court, the Badgers actually rank third in Ken Pomeroy’s overall standings.  Minnesota, on the other hand, ranks just #64 in offensive efficiency, and they have just three reliable threats on offense.  Although UM’s Lawrence Westbrook averages 13.4 points per game, he shoots over 42% from the three-point line and shoots 50% from all distances.  Look for him to get plenty of touches, especially when he is coming off a solid performance against the Wildcats.  Wisconsin is not the best road team, but leading scorer Jon Leuer will be playing for the first time since January 9 against Purdue.  He could be the spark the Badgers need to make a late-season run in the Big Ten and NCAA tournament.

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Set Your Tivo: 02.17.10

Posted by THager on February 17th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#4 Purdue @ #12 Ohio State – 6:30 pm on BTN (*****)

The Villain Looks for Big Ten Separation Tonight

Ohio State made the biggest statement of any team last weekend with the clinic they put on the Illini in a 19-point road win.  Now Purdue has the opportunity to make a statement of their own.  These two teams have combined for 13 consecutive wins, and they have been using some of the best defense in the country to make their respective climbs atop the Big Ten standings.  In five of Purdue’s seven games, they held opponents under 70 points, and the Buckeyes have not allowed any team to score over 63 points during their six-game winning streak.  The score in their last matchup was 70-66 in a road win for OSU, but the offenses played surprisingly well, with Ohio State shooting over 50% from the game (including 46% from beyond the arc).  Evan Turner, who has been the catalyst for Ohio State’s late-season run, scored 32 points in that game and will have to play well again for the Buckeyes to come out with a win.  The Buckeyes rank third nationally in two-point field goal percentage, and are eighth in offensive efficiency.  Purdue has a bigger lineup, but the Boilermakers took almost half their shots from the three-point line in the last game, so look for them to get the ball more often to big man JaJuan Johnson, who only had four points last time around.  OSU is undefeated at home this year, but hasn’t played many tough teams besides Wisconsin at home, so this game should come down to the wire.

Notre Dame @ Louisville – 7 pm on ESPN 2 (***)

The Cardinals saved their season with a huge road upset over Syracuse last weekend, and are ranked as a #11 seed according to Joe Lunardi.  The Irish do not have any games left against Syracuse, Villanova, or West Virginia the rest of the regular season, so they need a strong push in order to make the Tournament this year, and a good way to start would be a road win over Louisville.  Some people said that the Irish needed to win out before they lost to St. John’s at home, but now that UL is coming off a victory over Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, it would look more impressive for Mike Brey’s team to walk away from Freedom Hall with a win.  Everybody knows what they are going to get from forwards Luke Harangody and Tim Abromaitis, but when it comes down to it, Louisville may be the tougher team down in the paint.  The Cards rank in the top 20 in both rebounds and two-point field goal percentage, and Notre Dame doesn’t even rank among the top 50 teams.  That really doesn’t help Notre Dame’s cause when they have one of the underwhelming defenses in the country (#247 according to Pomeroy).  Notre Dame’s offense ranks in the top five in offensive efficiency, but they have not proven they can stop anyone when it counts, and I don’t see them beating a confident Louisville team on the road.

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Set Your Tivo: 02.16.10

Posted by THager on February 16th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#25 Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)

This game might feature two of the most underrated teams in the entire country.  It took a four-game winning streak for Wake Forest to crack the bottom of the top 25, and the 20-4 Hokies are still unranked in both polls.  In fact, Virginia Tech ranks just #50 in the RPI and are still considered by many to be a bubble team.  VT’s out of conference schedule is weak, but with four straight wins against ACC opponents, they are 7-3 in the league, just half a game behind Wake Forest and still in contention to win the conference.  Before the Hokies can even think about an ACC title, though, they need to prove their legitimacy against a solid Wake Forest team.  This game may only end up in the low 60s for both teams, as neither ranks in the top 70 in offensive efficiency, and both rank among the top 20 defensive teams.  Virginia Tech, whose leading scorer shoots below 40%, ranks #113 in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive ratings, so a below-average shooting night could bring this game down to the 50s.  If the Hokies want to be successful tonight, they are going to have to stop Wake Forest in the post.  Led by Al-Farouq Aminu, the Demon Deacons score the majority of their points from forwards and centers, and they rank third in the nation in rebounds per game.  Virginia Tech has not lost in Blacksburg yet, but they will face their toughest test of the season tonight.

Cincinnati @ South Florida – 7 pm on ESPNU (**)

With their recent performances, South Florida played itself out of the tournament and Cincinnati is on the verge of playing themselves back in.  USF has lost their last two games to other bubble teams (Notre Dame and Marquette) and are now not even in Joe Lunardi’s first eight teams out.  The Bearcats, on the other hand, are coming off a game in which they held UConn to their lowest point total since 2002, and are now the second team out according to Lunardi.  Like the Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech matchup, this game will also be extremely low scoring.  Both teams give up less than 66 points per game, and neither ranks in the top 70 in offensive efficiency.  Cincinnati has no players scoring over 12 points per game, and they rank #112 in offensive efficiency.  On paper, it would seem like USF would score more than 68.9 points per game, with four players averaging over 10 points per game and two players scoring over 17 points per game.  However, one reason for that is Gus Gilchrist just returned from an injury that kept him sidelined since December 2.  In his first game back against Marquette, he scored 10 points below his season average of 17.4 (most of USF’s earlier games were against weaker teams), but if he can provide some quality minutes and score close to what he did earlier in the year, USF should be able to win this game.  Cincinnati is just 2-6 on the road this year, and despite a relatively empty crowd at the Sun Dome, the Bulls should at least play themselves back in the bubble discussion.

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Set Your Tivo: 02.15.10

Posted by THager on February 15th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Connecticut @ #5 Villanova —  7:00 pm on ESPN (***)

As shown by Louisville’s road upset of Syracuse, anything is still possible in the Big East.  A UConn win over Villanova would be equally improbable, but the Huskies still have the talent to at least make this game competitive.  Just five days ago, they had a chance to beat Syracuse in the last minute, and had a 19-point lead earlier in the year at Georgetown before surrendering 47 points in the second half.  The Huskies have had a problem closing out games, and they are 0-5 in games decided by five points or less.  Before U of L’s upset on Sunday, the Cardinals were just 1-6 on the road, but the Huskies have yet to win a single game away from the XL Center.  Connecticut’s main problem on the road has been there offense, as they have failed to score 70 points in any of their six road games.  Their home offense has not been much better, as they are coming off an 18-52 shooting performance against Cincinnati in which two of their starters went scoreless for the entire game.  Villanova, on the other hand, is the nation’s second best team in points per game and ranks third in offensive efficiency.  Their defense, however, ranks just 49th in defensive efficiency, and they gave up 103 points to Georgetown on February 6.  We speculated that Syracuse had a potential trap game with Louisville, and Villanova could be in the same situation here, since they have a schizophrenic Pitt team waiting next.  Still, given the fact that Connecticut is just three games over .500 and 12th in the Big East, Villanova’s chances look pretty good.

#1 Kansas @ Texas A&M — 9:00 pm on ESPN (****)

Don’t look now, but the Aggies are slowly creeping up the Big 12 standings.  With four straight wins, they are now tied with Kansas State for second place in the conference at 7-3.  One of the main reasons for their success is a defense that has only given up 70 PPG over their winning streak.  They are also consistent, as only two teams have scored more than 76 points on them the entire season.  As well as the Aggies have played on the defensive side, the Jayhawks are even better, with a defense that gives up only 62.8 PPG and ranks third in defensive efficiency.  In just about every category on offense or defense, Kansas ranks better than the Aggies, but Texas A&M certainly has a chance to pull the upset with the home crowd behind them.  Although their 13-0 record at Reed Arena may be inflated due to a weak out-of-conference schedule, it will certainly be an intense environment for the Jayhawks.  One thing that separates Kansas above most other teams in the country is their balance; their four double digit scorers consist of two guards, a forward, and a center.  To get a feel for how versatile these guys are, consider this: they are the only team in the country that ranks in the top five in both rebounds and assists per game.  Kansas has had very close games on the road recently, with two of their last three contests going into overtime (they won both games).   Against Colorado and Kansas State, Xavier Henry was held to a combined nine points, so if the Aggies can limit his productivity, they have a shot to beat the #1 team in the country.

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Set Your Tivo: 02.13.10

Posted by THager on February 13th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Maryland @ # 7 Duke – 1 pm on CBS (*****)

The Terrapins have had extra time to prepare for what should be one of the best games of the year.  With the postponement of their game against Virginia due to snow, Maryland has not played in six days, which probably gave UM some much needed rest in the thick of conference play.  With a win in Cameron Indoor Stadium, Maryland will finally receive some respect.  Georgia Tech, who has more losses on the year and is eighth in the conference standings, is ranked #20, but the Terps (16-6 and second in the ACC) don’t even rank in the top 30 in the ESPN/ USA today poll.  This game will feature two of the most well-rounded teams in America, as both teams score over 80 points per game but neither gives up more than 65 points per contest on defense.  With top 25 rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency, these squads both rank in Ken Pomeroy’s top 10.  No opponent has scored more than 75 points or shot over 40 % from the field in Maryland’s last seven games, while Duke has not given up 70 points on the other side since their loss to Georgetown two weeks ago.  Duke has struggled to put points on the board in their last two games, but when a team plays defense like they did against UNC (holding the Heels to 5-19 from beyond the arc) they are going to win most  games.  Maryland has not beaten Duke since 2007, and if they plan on having success at Cameron Indoor Stadium, they are going to have to guard the perimeter well enough to force Miles Plumlee and Brian Zoubek to beat them.   More often than not, Duke is going to have at least two of their three star players (Singler, Scheyer & Smith) shoot well, but if Maryland limits the offensive onslaught to just one player, they at least have a chance.

Rhode Island @ #21 Temple – 4 pm on Atlantic 10 Network (****)

Rhode Island could use a big win to solidify their tournament status, and Temple would also benefit largely from this game after showing some vulnerability in their last four games.  These teams are ranked among the top 25 in the RPI, but Temple ranks 43d in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and Rhode Island is 68th.  Both teams are extremely unbalanced, as Temple has a suspect offense and Rhode Island has one of the worst defenses among tournament contenders (125th in defensive efficiency.)  It is doubtful that all six “good” teams from the Atlantic 10 will get in, and Temple (fourth in the conference) and Rhode Island (fifth) do not want to lose any standing with the selection committee if they lose this one.  In their last meeting, URI came back from eight points in the latter part of the second half to force overtime.  Despite 23 points from Delroy James, Rhode Island shot below 37 % for the game and lost.  Now in Philadelphia, the Rams will have to contain Lavoy Allen, who averages a double-double and was 8-12 in the last matchup.

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