Bracket Prep: South Region Analysis

Posted by KDoyle on March 18th, 2013

RTC_final4_atlanta

Throughout Monday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (9 AM), Midwest (11 AM), South (1 PM), West (3 PM). Here, Kevin Doyle (@kldoyle11) breaks down the South Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC South Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCsouthregion).

You can also check out our RTC Podblast with Kevin breaking down the South Region, which will drop both on the site and on iTunes Tuesday.

South Region

Favorite: #3 Florida (26-7, 16-5 SEC). A month ago, Florida looked like it was destined for a #1 seed and primed for a Final Four run to Atlanta. The Gators were dismantling SEC teams — albeit some very weak teams — and had their potent offense clicking on all cylinders. But then Florida lost at Missouri, and then at Tennessee, and then at Kentucky. Questions began to arise, and rightly so. A team of Florida’s talent and experience should not be losing to SEC teams that will not even make the NCAA Tournament. They seemed unbeatable in the 2012 portion of the schedule, but played down to their level of competition in the SEC. That being said, it would not be smart to pick against Billy Donovan. Donovan has led Florida to the Elite Eight the past two seasons, and done so with largely the same group he has this year. Two seasons ago it was a loss to Butler as a #2-seed and last year a loss to Louisville as a #7-seed. Of their eight impact players, seven are upperclassmen and have extensive experience in the NCAA Tournament. Veteran leadership and NCAA Tournament experience cannot be discounted, and Florida has both in spades. In the “for what it’s worth” department, Pomeroy has Florida ranked #1 overall in his season-long rankings (fifth in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency).

Is the Third Time the Charm for Boynton and His Gators?

Is the Third Time the Charm for Boynton and His Gators?

Should They Falter: #2 Georgetown (29-5, 15-5 Big East). Recent history is not on Georgetown’s side as John Thompson III has made a habit of exiting the NCAA Tournament too early. In fact, in the six NCAA Tournaments that JT3 has led the Hoyas to, they haven’t made it past the first weekend four times. The Hoyas won’t win any style points, but that doesn’t much matter. What they lack in flash they have in tough defense and methodical but effective offense. Not to mention that the Hoyas are also fortunate to have Otto Porter, the Big East Player of the Year, on their side. The emergence of Markel Starks as a second dependable scorer adds another dimension to the offense beyond him, though. Their adjusted tempo ranks 313th in the country — in other words, a snail’s pace — and inability to score in stretches on the offensive end doesn’t make them a sexy team to watch, but Georgetown is very comfortable playing grind-it-out kind of games making them an apt postseason team.

Grossly Overseeded: #7 San Diego State (22-10, 10-8 Mountain West). The Aztecs began the season with a 14-2 record and a 2-0 mark in Mountain West play, and appeared to be the class of the league alongside New Mexico. Since that blistering start, San Diego State is a pedestrian 8-8 and finished 9-7 in the MW. It is almost unfathomable that the Aztecs earned a much better seed than Pac-12 champion Oregon — prepare yourselves to hearing a lot about the Ducks’ seed in the coming days —and even a higher seed than fellow Mountain West member Colorado State. SDSU benefited from having a strong RPI (#28) and a challenging schedule which ranked in the top 20, but many prognosticators had them wearing road jerseys in their opening round game, not home whites.

Grossly Underseeded: #8 North Carolina (24-10, 14-7 ACC). After getting embarrassed by Miami and then suffering a tough road defeat to Duke, North Carolina looked like it was headed to the NIT; the Tar Heels had a 16-8 record and were just 6-5 in the ACC at the time. Roy Williams’ young group may have had unfair expectations placed on it in the preseason, but there is little doubt that they should be an NCAA Tournament team now. Their talent and maturation as a team began to show in the second half of ACC play by winning eight of their last 10 games including a narrow loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament Championship. North Carolina’s seed was hurt by having a 2-9 mark against the RPI top 50, but the way in which Carolina concluded the regular season shows that it was playing closer to the caliber of a #5 seed and shouldn’t be marred in the dreaded #8/#9 match-up with the top seed looming.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 17

Posted by KDoyle on March 11th, 2013

Despite dropping a game for the second straight week — this time on Senior Night against Ohio State — Indiana maintained its spot atop the rankings. It was certainly easier to put the loss to Ohio State in the back of mind after Indiana stunned Michigan in Ann Arbor on Sunday afternoon. It wasn’t so much the Hoosiers’ win that was so shocking, but the manner in which they did so, as they scored six points in the final minute to win 72-71 in a sweep of the regular season series from the Wolverines. Since the return of Ryan Kelly, Duke is looking stronger than ever after demolishing North Carolina over the weekend. The Blue Devils garnered two #1 votes with Louisville securing the final #1 ballot. As for Gonzaga, despite having 30 wins and not losing since that unbelievable game at Hinkle Fieldhouse against Butler, the top team in the AP/Coaches polls checks in here at #4.

More good stuff with the Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Week 17

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 16

Posted by KDoyle on March 4th, 2013

Despite dropping a game at Minnesota last week, Indiana remains the #1 team in the RTC25 for the fourth straight week. In fact, Indiana was the clear choice for the top spot by garnering six #1 votes and three #2 votes. Duke and Gonzaga both follow the Hoosiers, but their average rank was 4.00 compared to Indiana’s 1.33, showing just how confident RTC voters were in picking the Hoosiers. Interesting to note that #4 Louisville also picked up a first place vote, and the argument can certainly be made that they deserve more consideration as the #1 team. Since losing three straight in late January, the Cardinals are 8-1 with their lone loss coming in five overtimes at Notre Dame. Further down in the RTC25, North Carolina finally makes a return tied at #23. The Heels were ranked #14 in the preseason poll, but have been unranked ever since Week Three. Winners of its last five games, North Carolina is playing their best ball of the season.

More good stuff with the Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Week 16

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 15

Posted by KDoyle on February 25th, 2013

At long last, we have stability atop the RTC25 as Indiana checks in at #1 for the third straight week. The Hoosiers earned a big road win at Michigan State in their only game last week, and are beginning to look like the team that was ranked #1 in the preseason rankings. One player who was thought  in the preseason to be more of a role player rather than a star and legitimate candidate for National Player of the Year is Victor Oladipo. Oladipo has led the way with 19 points and outstanding play this season for Indiana. In looking at the Top 10, there is very little separation between #3 Duke and #10 Louisville in terms of the average ranking (5.33 to 7.44), but then there is a noticeable drop-off between Louisville and #11 Syracuse. It is refreshing to have some parity in the Top 10, especially after last season when at a certain point Kentucky was nearly untouchable.

More good stuff with the Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Week 15

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 14

Posted by KDoyle on February 18th, 2013

Indiana survived the curse of being ranked the #1 team in the country—fortunately for the Hoosiers they feasted on two bottom feeders in the Big Ten: Nebraska and Purdue—and maintain their ranking atop the RTC25. A midweek trip to Michigan State will decide whether they maintain their status as top dog, though. Is it possible that Miami, if the Hoosiers were to falter, are the #1 team in waiting? Pretty remarkable considering that they were unranked in the preseason and thought to be a middle-of-the-road ACC club. The Hurricanes continue to escalate in the RTC25 moving to the #2 spot this week after close road wins over Florida State and Clemson. Further down in the Top 10, we welcome Kansas back (#10) after posting resounding wins against Kansas State and Texas. Perhaps the three straight losses were a minor blip? We’ll find out later this week as they travel to Oklahoma State in a big time Big 12 showdown. More good stuff, as always, with the Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Week 14

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 13

Posted by KDoyle on February 11th, 2013

Sorry, Indiana, but you’re the new #1 team. It is not very often that a team can lose a game during the week and actually move up to the #1 spot, but that’s what happened after Florida was dismantled at Arkansas and the #3 and #4 teams both lost too. Many will clamor that Duke should be the top team, and perhaps they should be with just two losses on its record, but the Blue Devils team that squeaked out a win against Boston College on Sunday certainly didn’t look like #1 material. The big story of the week was rather the rise of another ACC team, the Miami Hurricanes; the ‘Canes beat up on North Carolina to move to a perfect 10-0 in conference play. It must be the first time in history that an ACC team has defeated Duke and North Carolina by a combined 50+ points (56, to be exact), in less than a month’s span, right? Overshadowed by all of the movement in the Top 10 are four new teams entering the RTC25. With its thrilling overtime win over Michigan, Wisconsin is up to #19, while Colorado State makes an appearance for the first time this season. Lastly, there must be an obligatory mention of the luck of the Irish as Notre Dame somehow beat Louisville in five overtimes — so there you go, Notre Dame, welcome back to the RTC25.

The Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Week 13

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 12

Posted by KDoyle on February 4th, 2013

The fourth different school in the past five weeks appears at the top of the RTC25 and it is not Indiana, despite their big win at home over the previous #1, Michigan. Rather, the Florida Gators are your new #1 team. A top 10 team since the preseason, the Gators are playing their best basketball of the season and look untouchable in the SEC. Further down, there are four new teams making a splash in this week’s RTC25. After spending many weeks on the outside, Pittsburgh finally jumps into the rankings after their home win over Syracuse.

The Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Week 12

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 11

Posted by KDoyle on January 28th, 2013

Six of the 10 teams in the top 10 of last week’s RTC25 tacked on a loss to their resume, or in Louisville’s and Minnesota’s cases, multiple losses. Fortunately for these two, Duke garnered much of the attention as they were absolutely thrashed by an upstart Miami team by 27 points. Duke rebounded with a win over Maryland though, unlike the preceding two teams who seem to be in a state of free fall as the Cards have lost three straight (after being ranked #1) and the Gophers four straight. Despite defeating two top 10 teams, Villanova didn’t even get a whiff of the RTC25— probably due to prior losses to Alabama, Columbia, and Providence — it has been that kind of year. Just another week in the world of college hoops where the only thing that is predictable are storylines surrounding the brand of backpack that Shabazz Muhammad carries around the UCLA campus.

The Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Week 11

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 10

Posted by KDoyle on January 21st, 2013

If there was ever a day that could be used as prepping for the Thursday and Friday games of the NCAA Tournament, this past Saturday was that day. With 154 games taking place beginning at 11 AM and not wrapping up until much later in the evening with the magic that took place inside Hinkle Fieldhouse as Butler topped Gonzaga and some more games out west to round out the night, Saturday had it all. Saturday also had many implications for the RTC25 as there was a fair amount of movement in all directions. Michigan has climbed all the way back up to #1, Butler is a Top 10 team — after not even receiving votes in the preseason — two teams from the Missouri Valley are in the thick of things, and a total of eight teams are in the “ARV” category ranging from Cincinnati (once a Top 10 team itself) to Bucknell.

A whole lot to touch on…the Q n’ D after the jump…

Week 10

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: Week 9

Posted by KDoyle on January 14th, 2013

And then there were none. We entered last week with four undefeated teams — Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Wyoming — but all faltered. Michigan was technically the last remaining undefeated team, but that lasted for less than 24 hours as the Wolverines lost Sunday afternoon to Ohio State in Columbus. Due to the crazy week that was, Louisville now moves into the #1 spot for the first time this season. The Cardinals’ lone loss came against Duke in the Bahamas back in November, and they hold the slimmest of edges on the Blue Devils in our poll (more on that after the Qn’D). It was also a tough week for two Big East teams while the Pac-12 is experiencing a resurgence with two teams entering the RTC25.

The Quick n’ Dirty after the jump…

Week 9

Quick n’ Dirty Analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story