This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Can Virginia win a third straight ACC Regular Season title?

After back-to-back ACC regular season titles, Virginia enters the 2015-16 season as a consensus top-10 team nationally. More importantly, Tony Bennett’s program has established itself as one that looks like it can sustain serious success going forward for years to come. Using a proven system of tight half court defense and a balanced efficient offense that doesn’t depend much on individual explosiveness, Bennett is now in a position that any coach would envy. Each year Virginia seems to lose a couple of key guys that are replaced with experienced, tough players. Just like that, the Cavaliers’ machine rolls on. This year’s big loss is Justin Anderson, who left a year of eligibility on the table to leave early for the NBA. Anderson’s mid-season broken hand and subsequent appendectomy may have cost Virginia a chance at greatness last season, but at least it gave other Cavaliers more preparation for this year. Before looking ahead, let’s appreciate what Tony Bennett and company have accomplished over the past two seasons. This two-year run by Virginia ranks as the ninth best (by winning percentage) in ACC regular season history (a 62 year span). In addition to that impressive conference performance, the Cavaliers have now posted back-to-back 30-win seasons, a feat which has been accomplished only seven other times in the ACC. In fact, Virginia is the only school on that list other than perennial league powers Duke (5 times) and North Carolina (2). The core reason for that success has undoubtedly been the Cavaliers’ stingy pack line defense, a philosophy that produced some amazing defensive performances last year. Here are some examples of such efforts, and note that these contests span a period of four months — Virginia’s defense was outstanding throughout the entire season: Read the rest of this entry »

This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Can Mike Krzyzewski lead another freshmen-heavy team to the Final Four?

Talk about a tough act to follow. After a season that saw Mike Krzyzewski win his 1,000th career game and capture his fifth NCAA title at Duke, it’s hard to imagine a coach ever having a better year. More than that, after spending years and years as the most hated program in the sport, it seems that Duke has achieved a measure of “coolness” lately, especially in the recruiting world. Perhaps it’s a result of Coach K’s decade-long tenure as coach of the USA senior national team and the success of coaching NBA stars to gold medals. Maybe it’s the perception (and reality) that Krzyzewski has embraced the one-and-done era of college basketball. Either way, it’s interesting to see the Duke coach get praise for adapting to the new way of winning in college hoops, yet the inventor of the model, Kentucky’s John Calipari, has been regarded in a much more negative light (as a system manipulator) over the last six years. Each coach has now won a national championship with a starting lineup of mostly freshmen. There were productive veterans around to guide the young stars in both programs’ title runs, and the three main freshmen on both squads were unusually mature — mentally and physically. That’s why it would be unfair to expect Duke’s latest highly acclaimed group of newcomers to match the success of their predecessors. It’s just not ‘normal’ to do what Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow accomplished in their first year, just as it wasn’t for the 2012 Wildcats’ super-frosh — Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marquis Teague.

Mike Krzyzewski hopes this year’s vaunted freshmen class at Duke can approach the exploits of last season’s group of Blue Devil newcomers. (Jim Dedmon/USA TODAY Sports)

It wasn’t always smooth sailing for last year’s Blue Devils, especially on the defensive end. The low point of the year came when Duke suffered back-to-back double digit losses to unranked teams, N.C. State and Miami. They were so bad defensively at that point that Krzyzewski, in a desperate and out-of-character decision, implemented a zone defense that Duke would go on to use more often than ever before in the Coach K era. Eventually, the freshmen learned to execute the man-to-man principles that the great Blue Devils of the past were known for, and the result was one of the best defensive performances we’ve seen in recent NCAA tournaments — Duke’s six opponents only managed to score .93 points per possession, and four of those teams boasted top-21 offenses according to Ken Pomeroy. The experience of last year’s team reminds us of a couple of things when considering the future defensive prowess of this year’s squad. For one, don’t expect the Blue Devils’ freshmen to immediately grasp Duke’s man-to-man principles, which may result in another year of a decent diet of zone mixed in;. Secondly, the possible early struggles of the freshmen on the defensive end don’t mean that dramatic improvement over the course of the year can’t happen again.

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Is the entrenched culture under Mike Brey enough to overcome the loss of two of the most decorated players in program history?

When Jerian’s Grant last second prayer went unanswered in Notre Dame’s valiant attempt to upset Kentucky in the Midwest regional final, it put an end not only to a remarkable late season run by the Fighting Irish but to two careers that won’t soon be forgotten. With the graduations of Grant and fellow classmate Pat Connaughton, Brey bid farewell to a combined 3,204 points, 1,166 rebounds, 947 assists, 268 steals and 8,821 minutes. What’s more telling than the staggering loss of that numerical production is that the club, given its setup of the roster, has a better chance to seamlessly replace those gaudy statistics than the exceptional intangibles provided by the departed captains.

The Notre Dame faithful is trusting that Mike Brey’s system will prevail this season. (AP)

For Brey’s sake, he must trust that the sum of his ingrained system is greater than the individual parts. Coming off a 32-win season, an ACC Tournament title highlighted by a meticulous dismantling of eventual national champion Duke, and a deeper March run than any team in school history since 1979, Brey should feel more confident than ever that he has laid the groundwork in place to eventually return the school to its second Final Four. Read the rest of this entry »

1. On Friday night, top-ranked North Carolina played its first ‘competitive’ game without senior leader Marcus Paige — out several weeks with a broken hand — and easily handled Division II Guilford, 99-49. In addition to the loss of Paige, the Tar Heels were also without sophomore Justin Jackson, who missed the contest due to illness. The absence of the team’s top two returning perimeter players gave others an opportunity to step up, however, and three players certainly took advantage. Junior Nate Britt and sophomore Joel Berry combined for 26 points and 16 assists, but they weren’t the only unselfish players as North Carolina recorded 33 assists on its 42 field goals. Freshman guard Kenny Williams also made the most of the available minutes by posting 12 points in 22 minutes of action.
2. N.C. State was the last ACC school to play a formal exhibition game this preseason, beating Division II Cal State Los Angeles by a score of 71-54 on Sunday afternoon. Star junior Anthony ‘Cat’ Barber led the Wolfpack’s attack with 21 points and six assists. It is widely expected that Abdul-Malik Abu is poised for a breakout season, and his performance yesterday indicates that is a reasonable opinion. The 6’9″ sophomore finished the game with 17 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks in 25 minutes of action. Terry Henderson, on the other hand, had a somewhat shaky debut, as the West Virginia transfer only managed five points in his 25 minutes, missing all four of his attempts from deep.
3. Miami played its one and only exhibition game last Wednesday, defeating Division II Dowling by a score of 91-40. Sheldon McClellan led the way with 18 points, as the Hurricanes used a fast start (+15 points in first five minutes) to blow out the Golden Lions. Another encouraging result was the performance of Oklahoma State transfer Kamari Murphy, who posted a double-double in his unofficial Miami debut. Murphy has also impressed his teammates — after the game, McClellan said, “He adds a lot of energy and a lot of length on defense. He can do a lot on offense; he just brings a lot to the team.” We know that Miami has a veteran backcourt, so if Murphy can combine with center Tonye Jekiri to give the Hurricanes a strong inside game, Jim Larranaga may have a very balanced team on his hands.
4. A pair of ACC teams looking to make a move up the conference ladder this season showed promising flashes in their lone exhibition outings on Friday. Pittsburgh’s Jamie Dixon has been preaching defensive improvement this preseason and he apparently means what he says. Returning leading scorer Jamel Artis did not start in the Panthers’ 80-50 beatdown of Gannon, which the head coach explained afterward: “We’ve been preaching all year long, all offseason, all fall, about best defensive players, best rebounders, those are the guys that are going to play, so that’s the guys we went with,” The Panthers’ defense played well, limiting Gannon to 32.7 percent field goal shooting for the game. In other related news, Dixon announced that junior college transfer Rozelle Nix would sit out the current season as a redshirt. At first glance, Wake Forest’s 86-64 win over UNC-Pembroke may not look overly impressive. But considering that the Demon Deacons were playing the Division II preseason #13 team, and doing so without Codi Miller-McIntrye (fractured foot), it really wasn’t a bad effort. It did take the Deacs a while to get going, as they committed 17 first half turnovers and trailed at the break; but behind Devin Thomas, who finished the game with 25 points and 16 rebounds, Wake Forest dominated the second half of play.
5. Two ACC teams projected near the bottom of the league played their sole preseason exhibitions on Thursday and both performances may have confirmed those low expectations. Clemson needed to rally from a 12-point second half deficit to beat Division II Lenoir-Rhyne, 87-84, in double overtime. This was the Tigers’ first real game in Greenville’s Bon Secours Wellness Arena, their home away from home this season while Littlejohn Coliseum undergoes renovation. If last week’s game is any indication, Clemson’s home court edge may be under renovation as well. Likewise, Boston College was pushed hard by a Division II opponent, defeating Bentley 85-75, after trailing much of the game. It looks like the Eagles may be in for a tough year in the paint, as the smaller Falcons were able to post a significant (+9) first half rebound advantage. Florida transfer Eli Carter was one bright spot for the Eagles, leading all scorers with 33 points on 12-of-18 shooting.

This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Can a pair of graduate transfers bridge the gap from a remarkable four-year run of success into the future?

Given the events of recent weeks at Louisville, it would be reasonable to answer this burning question with a far more complicated one: What is the future of Louisville basketball?

With both the NCAA and the university conducting independent investigations into serious allegations made by escort Katina Powell in her book “Breaking Cardinal Rules,” a pall of uncertainty hangs over the Cardinals’ program this preseason. Will sanctions be levied? Will head coach Rick Pitino be relieved of his duties in the wake of his own sexual scandal five years ago? Is it reasonable to expect this year’s Louisville team to maintain a singular focus on the court with all of the other negativity swirling around them elsewhere? These are questions that will need to be answered before talent evaluation on the Cardinals’ roster even becomes relevant.

Holding steady amid alleged off-court issues that might eventually cost him his job, on the court Rick Pitino has a very good squad to work with. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The truth of the matter is that despite Pitino captaining what could be a sinking ship, no one is perhaps better equipped to navigate the rough waters ahead than he is. Remember that it was Pitino who helped return Kentucky back to prominence in the 1990s after recruiting violations under Eddie Sutton left the program on probation. The longtime head coach, beloved by his players, will have the toughest task he’s encountered since his rebuild at Kentucky — keeping this group zeroed in on what they can control. Because if not for the exigent circumstances surrounding the club, the narrative assigned to this Cards’ team would undoubtedly be defined by uncertainty. Read the rest of this entry »

This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Burning Question: Is this really the best team in the country?

The Tar Heels were a very good team last season — remember, they led national runner-up Wisconsin until the final six minutes of the Sweet Sixteen (and were within one point in the final minute). But JP Tokoto opted to play basketball for money, leaving Roy Williams without much depth on the wing. Theo Pinson will likely get the call to replace him and seems a good fit for the role. He was a worse than average shooter last season but he was a good prep free throw shooter which usually tracks well with shooting ability. Pinson should immediately assume the role as this team’s defensive stopper.

Is a healthy Theo Pinson the difference between a good and great North Carolina team? (USATSI)

The x-factors for this team are twofold. First and foremost, Marcus Paige has to get healthy — his recently broken hand will put him out of action for a month. The real x-factor, however, is Joel Berry. Berry was quietly very efficient last season. It was shocking that he finished the season with an offensive efficiency rating of over 110 (the best of the bench). With Paige out of the lineup, this will be Berry’s offense to run from day one along with Nate Britt. The good news for Tar Heels fans is that both point guards are competent three-point shooters, and it’s also good for both to get early season experience at point guard so that when Paige comes back he’ll mostly be able to play off the ball. Read the rest of this entry »

North Carolina announced on Wednesday that senior point guard Marcus Paige has suffered a fractured third metacarpal on his right (non-shooting) hand in practice and will be sidelined three to four weeks as a result. Paige, the leading returning scorer for the Heels and the key cog to the nation’s top rated preseason squad, was selected as the Co-Preseason Conference Player of the Year just last week by the members of the Atlantic Coast Sports Media Association.

Marcus Paige Will Miss the Start of His Senior Season (newsobserver.com)

Paige is coming off a season where he was slowed by plantar fasciitis in his right foot, causing his offensive production to dip after a stellar sophomore campaign. In that second year in Chapel Hill, Paige was named to the all-ACC first team, averaging a career-high 17.5 points per contest. Slogging through the much of his junior season with the nagging injury, Paige still managed to lead the club in points and assists, garnering third-team all-ACC honors.

With Paige likely to miss the first few weeks of game action, sophomore Joel Berry II will likely get the first look to replace the senior captain. Berry, a McDonald’s All-American, averaged a shade over four points per game as a freshman, but saw his opportunities and production rise as he got more acclimated to the collegiate game. He scored a season-high 15 points in a March victory over Georgia Tech and was very effective off the bench in the NCAA Tournament, highlighted by a nine-point, three-assist game in 19 minutes in a regional semifinals loss to eventual national runner-up Wisconsin.

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This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Can Jim Larranaga lead another experienced team to a magical season?

When the USA Today/Coaches Preseason Poll was released in October, we were a little surprised to see Miami among the others receiving votes grouping rather than listed in the Top 25. Even more shocking was that the Hurricanes came in 37th in the overall voting, behind seven other ACC schools. The recently released AP Preseason Top 25 gave Miami slightly more respect, placing them 31st in the voting. It’s our view that the Hurricanes are going to be better than that, and several notable media members seem to agree; both Gary Parrish (CBS) and Dick Vitale (ESPN) rank Miami at #21 in their Top 25s, and the ACC Media listed the Hurricanes as the ACC’s fifth-best team heading into the season. Our main reason for optimism regarding this year’s Miami squad involves the long and demonstrated coaching track record of Jim Larranaga.

In looking at Larranaga’s last 12 seasons, a clear pattern emerges that shows that experience on his teams really matters. And it REALLY matters. From 2005-15, there have been four occasions in which Larranaga brought back a more experienced squad than the previous year. In each case, his team’s conference wins rose dramatically (average of +4.5 wins) and Larranaga led all four of those squads into the NCAA Tournament, including the George Mason team that made the 2006 Final Four. With a returning roster that includes four seniors and two juniors among his top eight players, this year’s Miami club is well-poised to make another similar jump. It says here to watch out for the Hurricanes as a possible darkhorse league championship contender. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Duke opened its exhibition season last Friday by beating Florida Southern, 112-68, in a match-up of the 2015 Division I and Division II national champions. This is the seventh consecutive year that the Blue Devils have played the defending Division II champion, a tradition that Moccasins’ head coach Mike Donnelly greatly appreciated. He said, after the game: “This game was a lot of fun for us. It is terrific for college basketball at our level, and for the kids it is a great experience. I hope that they [Duke] keep doing it because it is great for everyone involved.” As for Duke’s high-profile group of incoming freshmen, they were led by Derryck Thornton, who notched 22 points and shot 4-of-7 on threes. The Blue Devils’ veteran bigs also had their way with the smaller Mocs, as Marshall Plumlee and Amile Jefferson combined for 27 points (on 11-of-13 shooting) and 21 rebounds in 39 total minutes.
2. Defending ACC champion Notre Dame also tipped off its preseason schedule with an 87-56 victory over the NAIA’s Saint Francis (IL) last Friday. Twelve different players saw at least 10 minutes of action for the Irish, which dominated the boards (+22 rebound edge) in this game. Mike Brey was particularly happy with the way his team defended, saying, “Yeah we should be able to guard, we got more wingspan in there in the starting group and ball pressure. It’s unbelievable what it does and we’ve got guys who can get out in the passing lanes and do things.” The Irish forced 18 turnovers and held the Fighting Saints to 36.5 percent field goal shooting.
3. It’s been a rough preseason off the floor for Louisville, so Rick Pitino probably enjoyed having a chance to concentrate solely on basketball for a change, as his Cardinals defeated Bellarmine (KY), 71-55, on Saturday afternoon. The Knights, ranked No. 4 in the preseason Division II NABC Poll, only trailed Louisville by six at the half and drew high praise from Pitino after the game. Louisville’s defense was a pleasant surprise, leading Pitino to comment that he “learned we are further along defensively than I thought. Holding a great shooting and passing team to 32 percent from the field and 22 percent on three-point shooting is excellent for the initial outing.” Sophomore point guard Quentin Snider came off the bench and was impressive with eight assists versus only one turnover in 27 minutes of action.
4. Syracuse fans can’t be criticized for holding their breath whenever the Orange takes on Division II Le Moyne in an exhibition game. It was just six years ago that the Dolphins pulled the stunner, knocking off a preseason ranked Syracuse squad in the Carrier Dome. There were no such worries on Monday evening, as the Orange took care of business against the small crosstown school in a convincing 97-58 win. Michael Gbinije, who got the start at point guard over Kaleb Joseph, led the way for Jim Boeheim’s team with 21 points and four assists. All eyes in the building were on returning center Dajuan Coleman, suiting up for his first game since January 2014. The big guy delivered an encouraging performance, scoring 15 points and grabbing seven rebounds in 23 minutes of action.
5. Florida State was also in action on Monday night and looked rather impressive in its 114-68 blowout of Lynn University, a good Florida-based Division II program. Seven Seminoles scored in double figures, led by senior guard Devon Bookert, who tallied 19 points and made three of his five attempts from three-point range. The four newcomers on the perimeter — JuCo transfer Benji Bell and freshmen Dwayne Bacon, Terance Mann and Malik Beasley — combined for 49 points on 20-of-30 shooting from the floor. This could be Leonard Hamilton’s deepest and most athletic team in many years, which may translate into a group that plays the kind of stingy defense that Florida State was known for during its four-year stretch of NCAA appearances from 2009-12. The Seminoles held Lynn to a frigid 29.3 percent shooting from the field.

This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Burning Question: Is Cat Barber ready to replace Trevor Lacey?

NC State was poised to be overrated if Trevor Lacey came back. They were a good team that would have been returning nearly all of its minutes. Instead Lacey opted to make money playing basketball, leaving head coach Mark Gottfried in an odd but familiar place. Gottfried’s teams tend to do best when they have chips on their shoulders. High preseason expectations can grind down that edge. He may again be in an ideal place to overachieve — ignoring for the moment the talent across the rest of the league. Lacey is gone, but there’s almost no way the junior guard could have lived up to his performance from last season (see Michael Snaer’s senior season at Florida State for a frame of reference).

This is Cat Barber’s team, and the Pack will be fun to watch. (photo: Jerome Carpenter/WRALSportsFan)

Gottfried can instead turn to Cat Barber to take the helm. Barber looked terrific last season on the heels of an up-and-down freshman year. He should only keep improving, although his efficiency may drop slightly with increased possessions. Barber also gets a new sidekick next to him in West Virginia transfer Terry Henderson. Henderson should fit into Gottfried’s system right away. He’ll make threes and will likely score a lot more points than fans expect. Henderson wasn’t as high-volume a three-point shooter as some of his teammates in Morgantown, but as the best shooter in Raleigh look for him to take more shots.

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