Ten Questions To Consider: Mid-season Questions as Non-Conference Play Comes to a Close

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on December 29th, 2018

Sandwiched between the holidays and the New Year is a weekend slate of games that includes a bitter rivalry, several rematches of early season games, and individual matchups that fans and scouts will want to see. Here are ten questions to consider while enjoying games over the next few days.

  1. Can Chris Mack beat Kentucky in his first matchup against the Wildcats as Louisville coach? (Kentucky @ Louisville, Saturday 2 PM EST, ESPN2) In their first game against Kentucky as head coach of Louisville, both David Padgett and Rick Pitino lost by 20 or more points. Chris Mack’s Lousville team is led by Jordan Nwora who comes into this game having made 16-of-28 three-pointers over the last five games.
  2. Will Florida’s defense be able to create turnovers at a higher rate against Butler this go around? (Butler @ Florida, Saturday 4 PM EST, ESPNU) This is a rematch of the Battle 4 Atlantis fifth-place game in which Butler beat Florida 61-54. In that game, Florida’s defense forced turnovers at a season worst rate of just 17.4%. On the season, the Gators force turnovers at a rate of 24.7%, which ranks among the top ten in the nation.
  3. Will one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country have St. John’s ready for its Big East opener? (St. John’s @ Seton Hall, Saturday 8:30 PM EST, Fox Sports Net) St. John’s has played one of the ten easiest non-conference schedules in the country according to KenPom rankings. The Red Storm begin Big East play against a Seton Hall team that has won five straight.
  4. Will Oregon avoid disaster in a trap-game at Boise State? (Oregon @ Boise State, Saturday 7:30 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) Oregon beat Boise State by 12 points just two weeks ago at Matthew Knight Arena. The Broncos led the Ducks at halftime of that game. This game is sandwiched between a loss at Baylor and Oregon’s conference-opener next week against in-state rival Oregon State.
  5. Does Purdue have a bad matchup on its hands with Belmont coming to West Lafayette? (Belmont @ Purdue, Saturday 4:30 PM EST, Fox Sports 1) Opponents have shot 38% from beyond the arc against Purdue on the season, which puts Purdue’s three-point defensive ranking outside of the top 300. Belmont enters this game as a team that shoots 36.4% from distance and has six players who have made double-digit threes while shooting at least 33% for the season.
  6. Will North Carolina continue its recent trend of following a loss with a dominating performance? (Davidson @ North Carolina, Saturday Noon EST, ESPN2) North Carolina has lost consecutive non-conference games just once (November 2010) with Roy Williams as coach. Following loses to Texas and Michigan earlier in the season, the Tar Heels came out and won the next games by 16 and 28 points.
  7. What will Markus Howard do next? (Southern @ Marquette, Friday 8 PM EST, Fox Sports 1) Marquette’s leading scorer Markus Howard is one of five players in the nation who is averaging 25 or more points per game. Howard is averaging 32.8 points this month and is coming off of his second 45 point game of December. Southern’s defensive efficiency ranks among the bottom five in the nation.
  8. Is beating Lipscomb a must for the sake of Clemson’s resume? (Lipscomb @ Clemson, Sunday 3:00 PM EST, ESPN3) Clemson is 0-3 against KenPom top 100 teams on the season. The Tigers get one more opportunity at a top 100 non-conference win with Lipscomb. If Brad Brownell’s squad does not get the win, early conference games against Duke and Virginia could turn into must-win games.
  9. Which big-man will shine brighter between Ethan Happ and Charles Bassey? (Wisconsin @ Western Kentucky, Saturday 5:30 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) Western Kentucky’s five-star freshman big man Charles Bassey will be put to the test against Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ. Both Bassey and Happ do a tremendous job of drawing fouls. With WIsconsin’s offense running through Happ, Bassey’s ability to stay out of foul trouble will be key in this game.
  10. Just how good is the MAC’s second best team? (Penn @ Toledo, Saturday 2 PM EST, ESPN+) While Buffalo has rightfully been a team that has been in the spotlight, Toledo continues to also perform at a high level. The Rockets are 11-1 with a NET ranking in the top 70. Tod Kowalczyk’s squad’s next three games are all against KenPom top 100 teams, including a January 8th matchup with Buffalo.

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2018-19 RTC16: Week Five

Posted by Walker Carey on December 26th, 2018

Winning close game after close game is a trend that we know eventually catches up to a team. The most recent example of such a thing took place Saturday night in Tempe when previously unbeaten #5 Kansas blew an eight-point halftime lead in an 80-76 upset loss to Arizona State. The Jayhawks entered the game at an uncomfortable 10-0, with six of the 10 wins coming by single digits and two in overtime. Bill Self‘s group had been playing with fire all season, and the winning plays down the stretch that had previously bailed his team out never arrived. A single loss will certainly not derail any of Kansas’ hopes for the rest of the season, but it should serve as a bit of a wake-up call. Yes, Udoka Azubuike is still sidelined with a knee injury, but with Big 12 play rapidly approaching, it would be wise for the Jayhawks to put forth more consistent full game efforts if they do not want the losses to become more frequent. This week’s Quick N’Dirty after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Thoughts.

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What’s Trending: A Markus Howard Barrage and More…

Posted by Matt Eisenberg on December 26th, 2018

What’s Trending is a column examining the week that was in college basketball social media. Matthew Eisenberg (@matteise) is your weekly host.

As the temperature drops as winter overcomes us, Marquette shooting guard Markus Howard brought plenty of warmth to the Fiserv Forum in a win over Buffalo last week…

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1076485136974340097

Those that bet on Duquesne +5.5 against Penn State were feeling pretty good as the clock approached zero. Then chaos ensued…

The Buffalo Bulls: Kings of New York…

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Key Stretch for Surprising Oklahoma Begins Tonight

Posted by Brian Goodman on December 21st, 2018

One of these days, people will learn to stop doubting Oklahoma head coach Lon Kruger. Full disclosure: that includes me, but in my defense, my skepticism of the Sooners coming into this year was justified. They struggled horrifically on defense all last season, and it wasn’t just Trae Young. The Sooners routinely got outhustled on the glass, and at a time when spacing and three-point shooting skyrocketed, Oklahoma didn’t apply enough pressure to consistently force turnovers or lock down the three-point line. They memorably beat Kansas by hacking Udoka Azubuike instead of defending him straight-up, and while it was a savvy and winning move, it also highlighted the team’s serious half-court weaknesses. On offense, we all saw how lost the Sooners were on the few possessions where Young wasn’t involved, and Kruger didn’t do himself any favors by pulling in the Big 12’s worst recruiting class. While players can get better, the league’s coaches pegged Oklahoma to finish eighth in the Big 12 during the preseason. All the Sooners have done since is go 10-1 against one of the country’s best non-league slates, with highlights like neutral-court wins over Florida and Notre Dame with a healthy Rex Pflueger and some solid if not overwhelming wins in true road environments.

Overlook Lon Kruger’s Team at Your Peril (USA Today Images)

The key to Oklahoma’s fast start has been its defense. The Sooners aren’t guarding the perimeter especially well or forcing a bunch of turnovers, but what they have done is make every shot a chore. Oklahoma’s defense ranks 15th nationally in eFG% (43.3%), fourth in field-goal percentage on shots at the rim (48.3%), and seventh in free throw rate (22.8%). To lead the way, Jamuni McNeace has developed into one of the Big 12’s best rim protectors, and sophomore Brady Manek has made some big strides as well. On top of their contributions, Christian James has crashed the glass like a man possessed, averaging 12.5 rebounds over his last four games (after averaging just 3.4 over his first seven). Though some of that can be tied to McNeace missing two games with a right ankle sprain from which he still hasn’t fully recovered, James has elevated his defense to complement his offensive improvement, making make him more of a two-way threat.

While OU’s improved defense has paced the team’s fast start, its offense hasn’t always been as good. Quality three-point shooting and ball control have carried the flag on its best nights, but consistency has been fleeting. Tonight’s game at Northwestern (7:00 PM, BTN) begins an insanely tough stretch for this group. Following a 12-day break, the Sooners will go back on the road to face #1 Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. A visit from Oklahoma State should bring a reprieve, but next comes a January 8 date with Texas Tech in Lubbock. That’s three tilts against top-30 defenses, including two of the top six, and none of those matchups will take place in the warm confines of the Lloyd Noble Center.

A look at last month’s Battle 4 Atlantis provides something of a benchmark for how Oklahoma has fared against top-flight defenses, and it wasn’t a pretty picture. Against Florida (ninth nationally), Oklahoma scored just 0.94 points per possession even though it won 65-60 by tightening up even more than the Gators did. They weren’t so fortunate the next day against the 11th-ranked Wisconsin defense, though, losing by 20. Even if the Sooners come up short in their upcoming stretch of difficult games, they’ll be in much better shape than the industry predicted at the start of the season. Bag a couple more big wins, though, and the college basketball world will have to start thinking about Oklahoma as more than a run-of-the-mill at-large team.

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Ten Questions To Consider: Christmas Comes Early With Plenty of Hoops

Posted by Matt Eisenberg on December 21st, 2018

With Christmas, the New Year and conference play all firmly in the sights of players and teams, this weekend’s slate of games brings plenty of questions to the table. Kick off the holidays with plenty of hoops on Friday and Saturday.

Roy and Cal Get Together Again (USA Today Images)
  1. Will Buffalo pick up another win over a power conference opponent? (Buffalo @ Marquette, Friday 8:30 PM EST, FS1) Having already picked up Quadrant 1 wins at West Virginia and Syracuse, Buffalo can make it three big victories with a win at Marquette tonight. In those two wins, Bulls guard CJ Massinburg combined to score 68 points on 13 made three-pointers.
  2. Will Oklahoma’s success travel? (Oklahoma @ Northwestern, Friday 9 PM EST, Big Ten Network) The Sooners started the season with true road games at UT-Rio Grande Valley and UT-San Antonio, and they have not played a true game since then. This Friday evening trip to Northwestern could be feisty as the Wildcats gave Michigan all it could handle in the Wolverines’ narrow two-point win at Welsh-Ryan Arena.
  3. How will southern California’s best team do on the road at Butler? (UC Irvine @ Butler, Friday 6:30 PM EST, FS1) The most successful southern California basketball team this season belongs to UC Irvine. The Anteaters are 11-2 heading into their Friday evening match-up with Butler. Irvine has a suffocating defense that includes a defensive two-point field-goal percentage that ranks among the top 10 nationally.
  4. Which offensive rebounding force will come out on top in battle between blue-bloods? (Kentucky vs. North Carolina in Chicago, Saturday 5:15 PM EST, CBS) The CBS Sports Classic pits these two heavyweights against one another yet again. Both teams grab offensive rebounds at a rate that places them among the best in the country. In North Carolina’s convincing win over Gonzaga, the Tar Heels had an offensive rebound rate of 46.7 percent.
  5. Is Kansas ready for its first true road test? (Kansas @ Arizona State, Saturday 9 PM EST, ESPN2) Undefeated and top-ranked Kansas hits the road for its first true road game on Saturday evening. In a loss last season to the Sun Devils, the trio of Tra Holder, Shannon Evans, and Remy Martin combined to score 72 of the team’s 95 points. Of the three, only Martin is back with Arizona State this season.
  6. Will Arizona’s offense make an appearance? (UC Davis @ Arizona, Saturday 7 PM EST, Pac-12 Network) Arizona’s offensive efficiency had ranked among the top 20 in the nation in each of the past six seasons. This year, however, the Wildcats’ efficiency has fallen outside of the top 100. As a team, Arizona is 11-of-40 from beyond the arc in its last two games.
  7. Can the WCC pick up ANOTHER win over a Pac-12 opponent? (San Diego @ Washington State, Saturday 7:30 PM EST, FS1) The quest for the West Coast Conference to becoming a three-bid league continues as San Diego looks to pick the conference’s eighth win over the Pac-12. The Toreros are led by Isaiah Pineiro who has scored double-figure points in 30 of his last 31 games.
  8. How far can Kansas State’s superb defense carry the team? (Vanderbilt vs. Kansas State, Saturday 7 PM, ESPN2) Kansas State’s ability to defend the three, create turnovers and limit second-chance opportunities has allowed the Wildcats to log a defensive efficiency that sits among the top five nationally. They are now a team without one of its best offensive weapons in Dean Wade, however. Vanderbilt does not struggle to score the ball, so will this be the game in which Kansas State needs its offense to wake up?
  9. Will UConn get a win against former Big East foe Villanova? (UConn @ Villanova, Saturday 12:30 PM EST, CBS) After its two-game losing streak earlier this season, Villanova went on to win six straight. Having just lost two in a row again, the Wildcats now face a familiar opponent in former Big East rival UConn. The Huskies are 9-3 but have just one win (Syracuse) against an opponent with a KenPom ranking of #225 or better.
  10. Is Auburn vulnerable coming off of its loss at NC State? (Murray State @ Auburn, Saturday 4:30 PM EST, SEC Network) While Auburn shot 68 percent from inside the arc against NC State earlier this week, the Tigers were also a dismal 5-of-25 beyond the three-point line. Auburn returns home for a match-up against a Murray State team that has the nation’s best three-point defense to date. If the Racers can defend the three well and clean up their defensive glass, an area they have struggled in, Auburn could be in for a very tough 40 minutes.

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How Bad is Bad? Evaluating the Pac-12

Posted by Adam Butler on December 21st, 2018

During Wednesday evening’s broadcast of the Arizona-Montana game, Bill Walton, while simultaneously running the math for plates on the bench press and waxing poetic about his morning in Utah and evening in Tucson, noted, “This will be a most competitive conference.” I paraphrase; however, the gist remains: Walton was celebrating many of the Pac-12’s teams. He’s a known, if not unapologetic, champion of the Conference of Champions, and was not soon to bash it as many of us have lamented. But regardless of the Big Redhead’s admonitions, this year is looking BAD.  

Is Oregon the Best Worst Team in High-Major Basketball? (USA Today Images)

This is a conference not all that far removed from one of the worst conference performances ever. In 2012, the inaugural Pac-12 season, Washington won the conference regular season, lost in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament, and was summarily dismissed by the NCAA Tournament committee on Selection Sunday. The Pac that year owned nine top-100 KenPom teams (zero among the top 25) and two teams that were rated in the 300s. Just two of those teams danced, including a 23-11 Colorado team that entered the Pac-12 Tournament rated 96th by KenPom yet earned the Pac-12 auto-bid by defeating Arizona in an ugly 53-51 championship game.

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A Look at Five ACC Early Season Surprises

Posted by Mick McDonald on December 21st, 2018

As things around the college basketball world slow down heading into the holidays, Rush the Court’s ACC microsite writer Mick McDonald (@themickmcdonald) takes a look at a few early-season surprises from around the ACC.

  • NC State. Given all the new faces in Raleigh this year, many had reservations on whether Kevin Keatts could meld a new group into a winner. It’s still early but the answer is a resounding yes. The Wolfpack have already notched solid wins over Vanderbilt and Penn State on neutral courts in addition to knocking off a top-10 Auburn team at PNC Arena. NC State’s offense ranks 13th nationally (per KenPom) play at a very high pace (12th nationally) and have 10 players who see at least 13 minutes of action per game. If you aren’t well-conditioned before you take the court against the Wolfpack, you’re in big trouble. Keatts also has a pair of stars who need to start getting more attention beyond the Research Triangle. Point guard Markell Johnson owns a 73.9 percent effective field goal rate (third nationally) and a robust 138.2 Offensive Rating (11th nationally). He’s also cut his turnover rate nearly in half this season. Senior Torin Dorn is flourishing as a small-ball four, currently providing a 26.2 PER, 119.3 Offensive Rating and an 83.2 Defensive Rating, while shooting 45.8% from long-distance.
Kevin Keatts Isn’t Messing Around (USA Today Images)
  • Clemson. Syracuse has been a surprise disappointment as well through the first month of the season, but at least the Orange have a win at Ohio State to hang their hats on. Brad Brownell’s club, on the other hand, has not beaten a single team inside KenPom’s top 120. By losing to Creighton and Mississippi State on neutral courts as well as Nebraska at home, the Tigers have missed out on their only chances to pick up quality wins in the non-conference schedule. Their normally stout defense is rated just 50th in the country, per KenPom, and leading scorer Marcquise Reed has missed three games (including the Mississippi State game) with a sprained knee. Clemson is hopeful to have Reed back for the start of ACC play, and Brownell will certainly need him with the Tigers first three ACC games at Duke, at Syracuse and hosting Virginia. Yikes.
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Seton Hall’s Rebuild Has Yielded Great Optimism

Posted by Justin Kundrat on December 21st, 2018

All signs pointed to a substantial down year at Seton Hall following the graduation of Kevin Willard‘s heralded recruiting class of 2014. Given that the three-headed monster of Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez carried the Pirates to three consecutive NCAA Tournaments and accounted for 60 percent of the team’s scoring last season, question marks outweighed the certainties. Eleven games into this season, however, Seton Hall has put together a polished 8-3 record highlighted by a neutral floor win over Kentucky and a missed shot away from defeating Louisville.

Kevin Willard’s Club Has Surprised This Season (USA Today Images)

Numerous factors have led to the team’s surprise performance this season, the biggest of which has been the infallible play of returnee Myles Powell. The junior guard was a key contributor on last season’s squad but was never asked to shoulder the scoring load, leading to concerns about his ability to do so consistently. And while some of the Pirates’ offensive sets are still a frustrating sight, he is averaging 22.7 PPG to date while improving his scoring efficiency at all three levels. Willard’s star is getting to the rim and drawing fouls at a higher rate than last season while maintaining the sharp-shooting (38.1% 3FG) that made him such a threat in the first place.

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NC State is Legit — and So is Markell Johnson

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on December 20th, 2018

N.C. State got its biggest win of the season on Wednesday night at PNC Arena, taking out #7 Auburn, 78-71. As our colleague Matt Auerbach pointed out yesterday, there has been a lot of early-season skepticism about the Wolfpack because of their weak overall schedule to date. Now, after handling the Tigers, look for Kevin Keatts‘ surprising young squad to crack the Top 25 rankings next week (assuming it handles USC-Upstate over the weekend).

Markell Johnson led NC State to its biggest win of the year over #7 Auburn (wralsportsfan.com)

NC State’s rise is in large part because Markell Johnson has quietly emerged as one of the nation’s best guards. Against Auburn, the 6’1″ junior exploded for 27 points on 9-of-15 shooting and was at his best when his team really needed him. A personal 10-2 run in the second half exhibited the value Johnson is giving his team at a regular occurrence. Against the four Power Six schools that NC State has faced, he is averaging 20.0 points and posting an outstanding effective field goal percentage of 71.4 percent. On the season, Johnson is making 50.0 percent of his threes and 72.7 percent of his two-point attempts. Additionally, he’s posting a superb assist to turnover ratio of 2.5-to-1. As Kevin Keatts said Wednesday night, “He [Johnson] is one of the best guards in the country when he stays aggressive.” Johnson’s game is blending nicely with his backcourt mate Braxton Beverly — the duo thoroughly outplayed Auburn’s highly regarded pair of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown. The side-by-side comparison shows that Johnson/Beverly combined for 42 points, 9-of-13 shooting from deep, and four turnovers; Harper and Brown, on the other hand, totaled just 14 points, made only 1-of-9 shots from distance, and committed 10 turnovers.

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NC State Hoping to Show Its Hot Start is the Real Deal Tonight

Posted by Matt Auerbach on December 19th, 2018

Perhaps college basketball’s most under-appreciated and terrific start this season is happening very quietly in Raleigh. NC State, winner of nine of its first 10 games heading into this evening’s battle with Auburn — the sole loss came to Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge — has done so in relative anonymity. Tonight, the Wolfpack have an opportunity to take center stage and announce their candidacy for legitimacy to the nation.

Kevin Keatts is Smiling With Good Reason (USA Today Images)

Only four other schools in Division I hoops have played easier schedules to date than Kevin Keatts’ team, so the raised eyebrow skepticism with which some observers view the Wolfpack’s gaudy offensive numbers (currently 12th nationally) is justified. That said, NC State is playing the same brand of uptempo basketball that earned a surprise trip to the NCAA Tournament last season, and Keatts’ proven ability in building cohesion and teamwork is already apparent. Eight of the Wolfpack’s nine victories have come by at least 11 points, a key component of the new NET ratings that the NCAA Selection Committee relies upon during its analysis.

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