Thanks to Clemson’s brutal tendency to drop tight game after tight game along with Virginia Tech’s big home win over Miami on Monday night, the ACC bubble picture has become less murky in the middle. Eight teams are now certifiable locks for the NCAA Tournament, and it appears that the Big East’s 2011 record of sending 11 teams dancing will be safe for another year. The league, however, still has a reasonable chance at getting 10 invitations on Selection Sunday, which would be quite a feat. Here’s where the bubble stands a little less than two weeks out from Selection Sunday. (KenPom rankings are after Monday night’s games.)
LOCKS (8): North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech
BUBBLE (3)
- Syracuse (17-13, 9-8 ACC, KenPom #51). If the Orange make the NCAA Tournament, they will look back on John Gillon‘s banked-in buzzer-beater against Duke as the reason why. The institution of “The Gillon Rule” gave Jim Boeheim‘s team a third signature home victory to go with big earlier wins over Florida State and Virginia. If Syracuse takes care of business at home against Georgia Tech this weekend, the Orange are probably going to make the field regardless of their ACC Tournament performance. A loss and things get considerably murkier. This week: Georgia Tech (3/4)
- Wake Forest (16-12, 7-9 ACC, KenPom #33). Wake Forest’s only game last week was at home against Pittsburgh and the Demon Deacons (barely) got the win they needed. And so begins the biggest week of the Danny Manning era in Winston-Salem. Wake’s resume is solid from top to bottom, with great computer numbers and no particularly bad losses, but its best win came at home against Miami. Louisville visits tomorrow night with a monster opportunity in tow, and the Deacs will follow that game up with a trip this weekend to Virginia Tech. An 0-2 week will probably relegate Wake Forest to the NIT, barring a surprising run in Brooklyn. A 2-0 week might be enough regardless of what happens in Brooklyn. A split only keeps things muddy. This week: Louisville (3/1), at Virginia Tech (3/4)
- Georgia Tech (16-13, 7-9 ACC, KenPom #77). The last thing Georgia Tech could afford as the calendar approaches March was to drop a home game to a bad team, but that is exactly what the Yellow Jackets did when they lost to NC State last week. They followed up that defeat with a gritty but losing performance at Notre Dame, but now they are in big trouble. A win over Pittsburgh in Atlanta tonight is a must and another over Syracuse on Saturday would be a very good idea. Without a win against the Orange, Georgia Tech will likely need a big win or two in the ACC Tournament. Imagine reading that sentence in November. Even without a NCAA Tournament bid this season, a great case can be made for Josh Pastner as this season’s ACC Coach of the Year. This week: Pittsburgh (2/28), at Syracuse (3/4)