Rush The Court

Before this college basketball campaign tipped off back in November, recall that Duke was the near-consensus choice as the nation’s best team. With a nice blend of established veterans and ultra-talented newcomers entering the program — along with the Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski at the helm — it appeared as if the Blue Devils were in position to dominate (remember some of the 40-0 chatter?). Now, as we approach mid-January, things look a lot different in Durham. It feels like Duke has battled almost nothing but injuries and controversies since practice began. The conventional wisdom has been that the Blue Devils will eventually get healthy and begin to achieve some of those lofty expectations, but is the more likely scenario quickly becoming something far less than anticipated?

As far as all the injuries, suffice it to say that, among Duke’s top 10 players, only Luke Kennard and Matt Jones have been available for every game. Blue-chip freshmen Harry Giles (who missed the first 11 games), Jayson Tatum (eight) and Marquise Bolden (eight) sat out for most of the early going, putting Duke in the difficult position of building rotations and chemistry on the floor without its full roster. Initially, the Blue Devils played well with Kennard and Amile Jefferson emerging as upperclassmen stars. When Tatum joined the starting lineup in early December and preseason All-American Grayson Allen once again looked healthy and happy, things appeared to be coming around. After the Blue Devils destroyed UNLV in Las Vegas on December 10, many observers thought they were well on their way. Then the bottom fell out.

Grayson Allen’s third career tripping incident came during the Elon game, and his subsequent suspension caused a huge distraction in the approach to conference play. The ACC opener against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg was a disaster without the junior in the lineup. Krzyzewski’s back surgery announcement came next (along with the jokes and memes), and just as the rest of the team was getting healthy, the senior captain Jefferson suffered a bone bruise on his foot and is currently out for an indefinite period of time. If Jefferson misses more than a couple of games, it looks increasingly likely that Duke will not have enough time with a full, healthy roster to reach its potential. Establishing clear roles and outstanding team chemistry on the floor takes time, and Krzyzewski’s group is running out of it.

This week we’re getting a look at how Duke currently stands against the best teams in the ACC. On Tuesday night in Tallahassee the Blue Devils hung with an underrated Florida State team for about 28 minutes before being thoroughly dominated down the stretch. The frontcourt — which looked like a team strength in October with prep stars Giles and Bolden joining Jefferson in the post — has become the team’s most glaring weakness. Giles and Bolden were ineffective against the long and rangy Seminoles, while Jefferson watched from the bench in street clothes. Duke now travels to play Louisville on Saturday (Noon ET – ESPN). Given that Louisville and Florida State have very similar personnel (tall and athletic), expect Rick Pitino to wear down the Blue Devils in much the same way that Leonard Hamilton did.

Note that Saturday’s contest has much in common with a 2015 meeting between the two heavyweight programs. Two years ago at this time, Duke entered the KFC Yum! Center reeling from a blowout home loss to Miami (FL) earlier in the week. Using a surprise zone defense, the Blue Devils turned their season around with a convincing win on the road before going on to win the school’s fifth national title. To pull off the upset this weekend and start moving in the right direction, Duke needs Giles and/or Bolden to show sudden, dramatic improvement on the interior. And it wouldn’t hurt if Louisville showed the same generosity the Cardinals did in that match-up two seasons ago when they shot an icy 4-of-25 from three-point land.