Each week during the ACC season, RTC will review the last seven days to discuss the teams, players and anything else trending across the league.

STOCK UP

Georgia Tech. Now THAT is how you get the attention of the NCAA Tournament selection committee! The Yellow Jackets blasted Florida State at home last week before winning on Saturday on the rare but delightful “fast break lay-up buzzer beater” against Notre Dame. Georgia Tech is now 4-2 in its last six games and has absolutely moved into the discussion for an NCAA Tournament bid. The key has been the Yellow Jackets’ improved defense, as head coach Josh Pastner is employing a tricky zone that has forced opponents into a slew of bad shots, particularly from three-point range. Georgia Tech held the Seminoles to their lowest Offensive Rating (75.7) of the season and the Irish to their second-lowest (92.3).These big wins at home are no doubt important, but Pastner also needs to show that his team can win on the road. The Jackets will get the chance this week with trips to Clemson and Wake Forest.

Is freshman Ty Jerome the secret weapon for Tony Bennett to get Virginia deep into the tournament? (AP)

Virginia. The Cavaliers were *this* close to putting together one of the most impressive weeks of the entire college basketball season. Already carrying a dominant road victory over Notre Dame into Sunday’s match-up with top-ranked Villanova, the Cavaliers led for most of the way before a buzzer-beating tip-in gave them the loss. Perhaps even more surprising than Virginia’s success last week was the play of freshman Ty Jerome. Normally relegated to just a few minutes per game in giving senior point guard London Perrantes a breather, head coach Tony Bennett gave him a huge opportunity to deliver. Not only did he score a career-best 15 points in 24 minutes against the Wildcats, but he ran the offense well enough to allow Perrantes to play off the ball. Furthermore, he was not afraid to take the big shots, hitting several including a game-tying runner in the lane. Was this a temporary mirage, or is Jerome now a key cog to a Virginia team that appears to be putting it all together as we approach the home stretch?

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We’re now halfway through the conference slate and things still haven’t gotten much clearer in the Big Ten standings. There is a notable top four in Wisconsin, Maryland, Northwestern and Purdue, but nine of the remaining 10 teams reside in the middle of the pack with between three and five conference wins. This has led to quite a few unexpected results, including the weekend haul of Nebraska beating Purdue, Maryland staying undefeated on the road by outlasting a slipping Minnesota squad, and Rutgers very nearly pulling off the biggest upset of the Big Ten season against Wisconsin. Here’s the rest of the weekend’s highlights.

Ethan Happ (right) scored more than half of Wisconsin’s points as it defeated Rutgers on Saturday. (Getty Images).

• Player of the Weekend: There’s no easier way to show it than to let the numbers tell the story. Ethan Happ scored 32 of Wisconsin’s 61 points in an overtime victory at Madison Square Garden. While most of the Badgers were busily clanking away from the outside (Wisconsin shot an ice-cold 12 percent from three-point range), Happ utilized his quickness advantage over CJ Gettys to cause all kinds of damage around the rim. His defensive efforts also led to four steals (the sixth time the sophomore has had more than three steals in one game this season), as the center appears well on his way to a spot on the Big Ten All-Defensive team for the second year in a row.
• Super Sub of the Weekend: With apologies to Jack McVeigh and the 21 points he notched in leading Nebraska to an important win over Purdue, Iowa’s Brady Ellingson picked up the scoring load for the Hawkeyes in the absence of leading scorer Peter Jok. The injured senior has been a do-everything wing for a struggling team, so expectations were low heading into Saturday’s match-up with Ohio State. Instead, Ellingson scored 17 points on 5-for-7 shooting from three-point range, part of a big surge in Iowa’s bench production (44 points). In easily his most productive game in conference play, the sophomore also added four rebounds and three assists with zero turnovers. Ellingson could become a viable threat off the bench for the Hawkeyes the rest of the season.

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College basketball’s several interconference challenges are largely the same, but the Big 12 and SEC’s decision to turn theirs into a one-day event smack dab in the middle of conference play is a great way of differentiating itself. Most fans and pundits seem to agree with this opinion, unless, of course, you believe that the Big 12/SEC Challenge should move to December for carefully researched reasons like “just because.” What instead might lead to the challenge’s demise is not when the games are played during the season, but the lack of watchable games provided to the viewers. For example, there is no good explanation for 17-4 South Carolina to be left off this year’s schedule in favor of 10 other SEC teams. And even if it’s understandable that the challenge wants to avoid a number of potential conflicts  — such as Baylor‘s Scott Drew not wanting to play his brother Bryce Drew‘s team at Vanderbilt; Frank Martin having no interest in taking his Gamecocks to Kansas State; Texas tussling with Texas A&M; or Rick Barnes squaring off with the Longhorns — the fans want to see the most compelling match-ups. In any case, a fresh batch of power rankings is ready for your consumption. (caution: do not eat them all at once)

Maybe it was the Yeezys. Whatever it was, Bill Self and Kansas were able to hand Kentucky its second home loss of the season. (Mark Zerof/USA Today Sports)

1. Kansas — all voted 1st – “The Jayhawks had not lost back-to-back games since December 10, 2014. The last time Kentucky, on the other hand, had lost consecutive games was just last season, when it fell to Kansas and Tennessee in succession. This year the order was reversed, but the Jayhawks delivered the Wildcats the same fate. If there was any concern about Kansas after its Tuesday night loss to West Virginia, that quickly evaporated with the win at Rupp Arena, where Frank Mason continued to make his case for National Player of the Year.” – Justin Fedich (@jfedich)

2. Baylor — all voted 2nd – “The Bears seem to have lost some steam in the national conversation but they still have one of the five best defenses in the country and the best of the Big 12. Their length inside has held opponents to 43.2 percent shooting on two-pointers in conference play. That’s a recipe for success in this league.” – Chris Stone (@cstonehoops)

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In what turned out to be perhaps the nuttiest week of college basketball this season, seven of last week’s top 10 RTC25 teams lost at least once. Villanova (at Marquette), Kansas (at West Virginia), Kentucky (Kansas), UCLA (at USC), North Carolina (at Miami), Florida State (at Georgia Tech; at Syracuse) and Oregon (at Colorado) all took defeats last week. With so much chaos among the top tier of the poll, the corresponding result is that not very much actually changed — six of the top seven are still within that range. New #1 Gonzaga is the clear beneficiary, but with a number of teams behind the Bulldogs awaiting a slip-up, the top of the RTC25 might yet have several more residents by the end of the season.

This week’s Quick N’ Dirty Analysis of the RTC25 is after the jump.

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1. The Heights: Cool piece from the Boston College student paper doing a deep dive (with GIFs) into the Eagles’ close loss over the weekend at Virginia Tech.
2. USA Today: Georgia Tech is the ACC’s Cinderella this season — remember, the Yellow Jackets were a favorite to dethrone Boston College from the league’s cellar. Now Josh Pastner‘s team looks very much like it will earn a trip to the Big Dance. USA Today‘s Dan Wolken is more qualified to write on Pastner than most — he spent a number of years on the Memphis beat. While Pastner’s hire was initially greeted with great skepticism, the Memphis job may have just been a poor fit (i.e., no one was going to fill John Calipari’s large shoes there). Georgia Tech’s good start in ACC play may turn out to be a flash in the pan or it could be evidence that Pastner can coach a team to a certain ceiling but struggles with expectations. But now’s hardly the time for negativity.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: If you’re trying to catch up on the ACC — well, mostly the North Carolina teams — Andrew Carter’s piece is a great place to start. I question the notion that the Tar Heels are the obvious best team — especially since they still have five games against Duke, Virginia and Louisville left on the schedule. Duke may ultimately prove to be smoke and mirrors, but the Cavaliers and Cardinals are every bit as good as North Carolina. The most interesting fact from the piece is that ACC road teams were 21-42 going into Sunday (Duke tallied a win in South Bend, but Louisville and Virginia Tech both protected their home courts after the piece was posted).
4. WDRB: Is Louisville the best team in the ACC? Maybe (but give me Virginia, which should have beaten Villanova in Philadelphia). The Cardinals’ Donovan Mitchell has been tremendous, but Eric Crawford is right to note that Louisville’s gaudy efficiency numbers are partially the result of poleaxing the bottom of the league. There’s certainly no doubt that the Cardinals are a Final Four caliber team with a bona fide all-ACC star. But if they knock off the Cavaliers in Charlottesville? Then we’re talking.
5. Syracuse Post-Standard: I probably don’t have to tell you the source, but apparently “some people […] behind the scenes” liken Tyler Lydon to Tom Brady. But fun oral history aside, Tyus Battle‘s recovery of Lydon’s pass on Saturday probably saved Syracuse from a crushing collapse against Florida State. It’s obviously impossible to know, but a turnover there gives Leonard Hamilton‘s team a chance to settle down and cut the deficit to one possession. Don’t worry about the Seminole, though: ACC road games are hard.

EXTRA: In defense of Syracuse‘s court-rushing from a participant. My fiery take is if something is fun and reasonably safe for players, go for it. “Act like you’ve been there before” is for fun-haters.

So much of this season’s focus has zeroed in on college basketball’s blue-blooded programs, both those holding true to their stature and those that are floundering. But although their names are not as sexy, this season’s early group of bubble teams features a handful of programs that have little to no recent experience in the NCAA Tournament. For coaches at these schools, climbing the mountain to March Madness can be a veritable game-changer. As we slowly turn the corner into February and the last six weeks before Selection Sunday, fans, coaches, alumni and general observers should all keep a close eye on Northwestern, Virginia Tech and TCU to see if they can end their long droughts by closing the deal.

Is Another Chicago Curse About to End? (USA Today Images)

• Northwestern. With a 7-2 Big Ten record and its first AP Top 25 ranking in seven years, Northwestern is finally in position to end the other less-publicized Chicago area losing streak. Though there have been a few close calls over the course of the last decade, head coach Chris Collins seems to have the group of Wildcats that will break through. His team currently ranks 29th in the RPI, having gone 18-4 against a schedule that KenPom rates as the 67th toughest in college basketball. The selection committee values road wins and Northwestern has answered this season by winning four of its first five Big Ten away games. Hopes are high in Evanston, and with nine games left in the Big Ten season, it would take a fairly monumental collapse for Collins’ team to play its way out of the Big Dance.

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Four ranked ACC teams took to the road on Saturday afternoon, but only one emerged unscathed. Syracuse picked up its biggest win of the year by beating Florida State at the Carrier Dome; Georgia Tech edged Notre Dame at the buzzer in Atlanta; and Miami used a huge first half run to handle North Carolina with surprising ease. Wake Forest could not complete the home underdog sweep, blowing a late lead against Duke. On Sunday, Virginia nearly grabbed a huge non-conference road win for the league, but the Cavaliers fell to Villanova at the buzzer. Here are the highlights from the weekend around the ACC.

Tyler Robeson helped Syracuse hold off Florida State to give the Orange an important ACC win.
(Rich Barnes/Getty Images)

• Best Win: There were several good choices for this honor this weekend, but we’ll go with the school that probably needed a big win the most. In beating the Seminoles by a score of 82-72, Syracuse gained its first win over a ranked team this year and moved to 5-4 in league play. Given its lousy 8-5 non-conference record, the Orange probably need at least 10 ACC wins to make a reasonable case for this year’s NCAA Tournament field. Two of Jim Boeheim‘s graduate transfers led the way against Florida State, as Andrew White and John Gillon scored 24 and 21 points, respectively. Syracuse led at the half by 18 points before a furious Seminoles rally cut the lead to two late — Gillon then took over, making eight straight free throws to salt the game away.

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Xavier, loser of four of its last five games, finds itself reeling after its Crosstown Shootout defeat to Cincinnati on Thursday night. The Musketeers now stand at 14-6 (4-3, fifth in the Big East) and have already lost as many games as all of last year. In a lot of ways, Xavier’s shaky play is not surprising. Having lost their two best big men from last season (Jalen Reynolds and James Farr), a certain level of drop-off was reasonable. What Chris Mack did not plan for, however, was the major hit his backcourt took when senior guard Myles Davis announced he would be stepping away from the program. After a two-month suspension to start the season, Davis only played three games before announcing his abrupt departure. It is clear that the Musketeers are still clearly missing their primary playmaker.

Myles Davis (USA Today Images)

As a junior, Davis was one of the more under-appreciated distributors in college basketball. He boasted a solid 24.6 percent assist rate and was great at keeping the ball moving in an offense that relied heavily on precision passing on the perimeter to find open shooters. Davis also led the Musketeers in assists – averaging more than four per game – but he was so valuable because of his ability to see one pass ahead in the hockey-assist style (the pass leading to the assist). Per Hoop Lens, Xavier averaged a robust 1.13 points per possession with Davis on the floor last season, best on the team. When he was off the court, Xavier’s resulting drop of 0.18 points per possession was noticeable. More data: The Musketeers’ effective field goal percentage was almost seven points higher with its top play-maker on the court, as much as a result of his scoring in addition to his passing — Davis ranked second on the team in both three-point percentage and threes made last season.

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Trailing by four points at halftime against Southern Illinois on January 11, Illinois State coach Dan Muller provided blunt analysis coming out of the locker room. “They out-competed us to start the game. I thought they were more physical,” he said. “We gotta play tougher.” And play tougher his team did. The Redbirds promptly squashed Southern Illinois’ hopes for the home upset, holding the Salukis to just six points over the opening 10:33 of the second half. It was one of eight games this season in which Muller’s team has held its opponent to eight points or fewer over the course of a 10-minute “quarter,” a testament to Illinois State’s relentless, swarming defense. With an improved offense to boot, it’s also a reason why the Redbirds are a legitimate threat to end Wichita State’s reign in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Deontae Hawkins and the Redbirds are the real deal this season. (Jasen Vinlove – USA TODAY Sports)

Illinois State enters today 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, a byproduct of not allowing an opponent to score over a point per possession since December 18. During that 12-game stretch, in fact, only two opponents have mustered better than 40 percent shooting against the Redbirds from inside the arc. How has Muller’s group—a top-75 defense last season—gone from good to elite? The answer boils down to quickness, interior length and discipline. In the backcourt, guards Paris Lee and Tony Wills possess tremendous lateral quickness, preventing ball-handlers from beating them off the dribble with any kind of regularity. Lee is a two-time member of the MVC All-Defensive Team; Wills—new to the starting lineup—is considered by Muller to be among the best perimeter defenders in the country. They do a masterful job of keeping players in front of them, even on switches. The Redbirds’ frontcourt, meanwhile, excels at sealing off gaps and turning the paint into an impassible wall. Juniors MiKyle McIntosh and Deontae Hawkins provide quickness and athleticism, while sophomore contributors Phil Fayne (6’9″) and Daouda Ndiaye (7’1″) bring the size.

And yet, Illinois State isn’t a pack-line unit content with merely denying entry into the lane. Instead, they’re extremely active and aggressive both on the perimeter and near the basket, constantly slapping at the ball and often mixing up defenses to confuse opponents. The Redbirds rank among the top 40 nationally in both defensive block rate and steal rate, and Lee is college basketball’s active career steals leader. During a key stretch late in the first half against Wichita State on January 14, Illinois State switched to zone for five possessions in a row, only to switch back shortly before the half expired. The maneuver, which throw the Shockers into an offensive tailspin (seven-plus minutes without a field goal), enabled Muller’s group to build an insurmountable lead. Throwing analysis aside, Lee recently explained his team’s defensive success more simply: “We play fast. We play hard.”

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In a Big Ten full of inconsistent teams, Illinois has been one of the most inconsistent. Nice wins over VCU, NC State, Michigan and Ohio State have been mitigated by disappointing losses to Winthrop, Maryland (twice) and Indiana. At 13-8 overall (3-5 Big Ten) and with an RPI of #43 , the Illini currently sit on the dark side of the Big Ten bubble. Nevertheless, the season is far from complete and the Illini have a path to the postseason if they can shore up several of their lingering issues over the last five weeks. Without question, John Groce‘s team needs to protect home court, but the next three games in particular — at Penn State today; then, home against Wisconsin and Minnesota — are crucial. The following are three important factors which could determine Illinois’ fate over the next eight days.

With Greater Consistency, Illinois Can Still Make a Run to the Postseason (USA Today Images)

1. Malcolm Hill needs to be more assertive. Hill’s generally passive nature results in too few shot attempts over the course of a game. While sharing the offensive load with Kendrick Nunn last season, he was averaging 12.9 attempts per game. He is down to only 12.3 attempts per game this season. As a high-usage, high-efficiency player (116.3 ORtg), his goal should be to take at least 15 quality shots every time out in the next three games. Better offensive assertiveness on his part will correspondingly also open up looks for teammates Michael Finke (41.4% 3FG) and Jalen Coleman-Lands (35.8% 3FG) from behind the arc. Read the rest of this entry »