Media pundits are always quick to jump on bandwagons and it happened again on Wednesday night. The chatter around Xavier’s perceived ceiling has been around all season, but it picked up considerably following the team’s win over #1 Villanova. Those claiming Xavier has Final Four potential aren’t wrong by any means; Chris Mack’s team is deep, athletic and extremely tough on the boards — a combination that usually makes for a tough out. Moreover, a 7-2 record against the RPI top 50 has erased any doubts about its ability to compete against Tournament-level teams. Below the surface, however, lurk some unpleasant memories, remnants of what are unquestionably ugly losses. A 31-point blowout at Villanova, a pair of brutally inefficient losses to Georgetown and Creighton, and most recently, a clunker at Seton Hall. The losses themselves aren’t the least bit concerning — Xavier’s four total losses is the second fewest of any team in the country — it’s the way they’ve lost.
The Musketeers have a number of options — Trevon Bluiett, Myles Davis and JP Macura prime among them — when it comes to perimeter scoring, but these players aren’t relied upon for lights-out shooting as much as they are pure spacing. With a lightning-quick point guard in Edmond Sumner, Xavier can usually penetrate to get high quality looks around the rim because teams are forced to respect the array of shooters around Sumner. It doesn’t necessarily matter who is making shots, so long as they connect on a high enough percentage to keep defenses honest. The Xavier wings are also adept at making entry passes to the low post, a place where the Musketeers are converting at a high rate, as the presence of numerous shooters and slashers helps stop opponents from doubling on the interior. Xavier post options Jalen Reynolds and James Farr also both rank in the top 100 in offensive rebounding, helping the X-men corral 35.7 percent of its missed shots. Partially as a result of the attack of the offensive glass, Xavier attempts 40.3 percent of its shots at the rim and gets to the free throw line at an exceedingly high rate (29th nationally).
The formula has worked almost every time out this season, but when Xavier hasn’t been able to maintain its rebounding dominance inside, the wheels have come off in dramatic fashion. Against Seton Hall, the Pirates came out the more aggressive team and strategically clogged the paint, holding Xavier to 40 percent shooting from two and allowing just 17 free throw attempts. The offensive rebounding component of Xavier’s offense didn’t take a hit, but the team collapsed on the defensive end, allowing Seton Hall to grab 46 percent of its missed shots. Moreover, what surfaced against Seton Hall’s stout interior defense was the Musketeers’ glaring inability to finish in traffic off its offensive rebounds. “Even in game one, they had their way on the offensive glass. It seemed like no matter who was in there… they rebound relentlessly… there’s a reason they lead our conference in offensive rebounding,” Mack said.
While it’s easy to dismiss this game as a single incident, the script for defeat was eerily similar in Xavier’s losses to Villanova, Creighton and Georgetown. Offensive woes become exposed against tenacious interior defensive teams who force Xavier into a jump shooting team. In its four losses, Xavier has converted on just 39.7 percent of its two point shots, well below its season average of 50.1 percent. Making matters worse, the average free throw rate in these losses was just 26.2 percent, again a sharp negative departure from a season average of 43.6 percent. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that when Xavier struggles to score, it loses. But the heavy reliance on points off free throws (Xavier ranks 30th in this category), coupled with a dependency on offensive rebounding to overcome shooting woes, has revealed a recipe for success against the surprising Musketeers.