You may not have noticed it Saturday night, lost amid college football and everything else that is a late fall Saturday night, but Arizona State’s hoops team put the finishing touches on a very successful week by handing it to Texas A&M (#18 in the latest RTC Top 25) in a 67-54 home win. Coming on the heels of a mid-week win at Creighton, this is just the latest of a series of peaks in Bobby Hurley’s wild first season in the desert. An opening night loss to Sacramento State and a late-game collapse in Brooklyn against Marquette aside, Hurley’s club also has solid wins over Belmont, North Carolina State and UC Santa Barbara on its resume, with road tests at Kentucky and UNLV the next two games on the schedule. So, what exactly is Hurley up to in the desert? And does is this team more like the team that took care of a Top 25 team or the one that lost to a middle-of-the-pack Big Sky team?
When things are going well on offense for the Sun Devils, it all starts with sophomore point guard Tra Holder, who is, at times, seemingly impossible for opponents to keep out of the lane. Add in the fact that he’s dangerous when he gets there, with an array of floaters, pull-up jumpers and the ability to earn his way to the line, where he shoots 82.5 percent, and goal one for the opposition’s defense is to put a wrap on Holder’s penetration. That sometimes, such as on Wednesday night against Creighton, necessitates pulling secondary defenders away from their assignments to stop penetration, allowing Holder to do one of two things. First, there’s the old drive-and-dish, sucking in a secondary defender, kicking the ball out to an open teammate on a wing, maybe an additional pass and then a three. With guys like Gerry Blakes, Andre Spight, Kodi Justice and Willie Atwood all capable three-point shooters, that alone is the start for some good offense. The other option for Holder is that midrange game of his, unleashing a floater or a pull-up. If it goes, great; if it doesn’t, the Devils have four guys who are grabbing at least 10% of teammates’ missed shots when they’re on the floor – Savon Goodman, Obinna Oleka, Willie Atwood and Eric Jacobsen. Between those four, 29% of their two-point field goals have come off of putbacks on offensive boards.
Now, that’s when things are going well. When things are going badly, Holder, who is still very much a young point guard, can force things, dribble into traffic and turn the ball over. Or let the offense stagnate and turn into a three-point launching party, with himself, Blakes, Spight and Justice all guilty of hunting shots at times. Little by little, this will change as the season goes on and Hurley coaches these guys up. There are plenty of strong individual offensive talents on this team that, with the recognition of what constitutes a good possession versus a bad possession, this team’s offensive upside is strong. At this point, the team’s best shooters – Spight and Justice – have combined to shoot just 31% from three, a number that will almost surely climb. Likewise, Goodman and Jacobsen are probably due more touches in the paint, and efficiency could climb with that possibility.
Then there’s the other end of the court, where Hurley has the makings of an improved defensive squad. While lockdown defender Shaquielle McKissic is gone, Oleka has been phenomenal as a hard-nosed shot-blocking, rebounding big man with the athleticism and versatility to defend the pick and roll very well. Likewise, Atwood has made big strides as an inside-outisde athlete on the defensive end. But, while the Sun Devils have largely been very good on the glass this season, Saturday night’s one significant failing was in securing defensive rebounds, allowing the Aggies to grab 16 second-chance opportunities. The fact is, outside of the 6’10” Jacobsen, nobody on this team stands taller than 6’7”, a fact that will be made plain this weekend against Kentucky, and on into Pac-12 play. The Sun Devils are going to have to compete on the glass, because they aren’t going to be able to outrebound teams based on size and length alone.
So, wheeling back around to answer that question posed up top, this team is probably somewhere in the middle between the opening night letdown and the team that knocked off Texas A&M. There is upside still left for this team to grow into, but size and quality depth remain question marks. Can the Sun Devils beat Kentucky? In this sport anything is possible, but the size and athleticism of Kentucky make for a tough matchup for anybody. And following the UCLA model of packing it in and making Kentucky score over you is going to be less effective for a smaller club. But Hurley’s history against Kentucky combined with the improvement of this team is a prospect that could make Wildcats’ fans somewhat nervous.