It’s Feast Week in college basketball. To get you ready for the Big 12’s representation in the various holiday tournaments this week, our Feast Week Mission Briefings continue today.
Catching Up: The beginning of the Shaka Smart era in Austin got off to a rough start when the Longhorns were upset by Washington in their opener. Outside of guard Isaiah Taylor‘s 27 points, Texas struggled to put together a competent offensive attack, shooting just 26 percent from the field against the Huskies. The Longhorns bounced back with a 67-56 victory over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in their home opener, and Smart’s first win with the program was highlighted by an impressive performance from big man Cameron Ridley (14 points, 14 rebounds). But even in victory, the Longhorns failed to break the one point per possession mark on offense. Looking at their offensive stats on KenPom feels like you’re about to run headfirst into a brick wall:
Luckily, the season is long and those numbers should improve as the players become more comfortable in Smart’s system. As the coach reminded everyone during a Monday press conference: “We have to focus on the process. […] The process isn’t pretty. It’s not sexy. But it’s something that works.”
Opening Round Preview: The Battle 4 Atlantis field is stacked this year and Texas won’t get an easy start as the Longhorns face in-state rival Texas A&M in the opening round of the tournament. KenPom gives Smart’s team a 43 percent chance of winning against an A&M team that features three seniors and a cabal of freshman — many of whom chose the Aggies over Texas. A&M is undefeated through four games this season and shares a common opponent with the Longhorns in Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The Aggies fared slightly better against the Islanders than the Longhorns did, beating them by 25. Billy Kennedy‘s team has been potent offensively and are owners of the fifth best effective field goal percentage in the country, but haven’t yet faced an opponent near the quality of Texas. The Longhorns will need to dig in defensively if they want to make their way into the second round.
Key Resume Opportunities: The opening round game against Texas A&M is a resume building opportunity in and of itself, but even bigger chances could wait deeper in the bracket. Seven of the eight teams in the field rank in the top 100 on KenPom, with six in the top 50. In the second round, the Longhorns will face either an AP top 10 team in Gonzaga, or get a shot at revenge against Washington. If Texas wins its first two games, it’ll have already had a successful trip but get one final resume-building chance against either Connecticut, Michigan, or Syracuse in the final (sorry KenPom #276 Charlotte, but winning two games in this field seems tough). Atlantis again boasts the top field among Feast Week offerings, so Texas should have opportunities to pick up resume building wins at nearly every turn, regardless of the result of its opener.
Outlook: The Battle 4 Atlantis should provide the Longhorns with a much needed opportunity to grow as a team. Smart is still looking for Ridley to develop into an offensive focal point, as getting those easy buckets down low is important for an offense that hasn’t performed well to start the season. Even if the Longhorns don’t manage to get a resume building win in the Bahamas, they’ll have other opportunities against North Carolina and Connecticut down the road. Texas us unlikely to win the Big 12, but it has the talent to be a factor in the title race, at least for awhile. Either way, this early in the season, it’s important to remember that adapting to a new system is a process.