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	Comments on: Overvaluing Previous Year&#8217;s Success in Preseason Rankings	</title>
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		By: Don&#8217;t Trust Teams That Have Outperformed Expectations &#124; The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective		</title>
		<link>http://rushthecourt.net/2015/11/20/overvaluing-previous-years-success-in-preseason-rankings/comment-page-1/#comment-3437272</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Don&#8217;t Trust Teams That Have Outperformed Expectations &#124; The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Mar 2016 22:36:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rushthecourt.net/?p=111433#comment-3437272</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] in professional sports, weirdly important in college basketball. I have shown in the past that they overvalue previous year&#8217;s tournament success, so they clearly aren’t perfect. But they also are as predictive as pre-tournament rankings in [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] in professional sports, weirdly important in college basketball. I have shown in the past that they overvalue previous year&#8217;s tournament success, so they clearly aren’t perfect. But they also are as predictive as pre-tournament rankings in [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: Matt B		</title>
		<link>http://rushthecourt.net/2015/11/20/overvaluing-previous-years-success-in-preseason-rankings/comment-page-1/#comment-3186100</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt B]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2015 19:49:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rushthecourt.net/?p=111433#comment-3186100</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Doesn&#039;t this trend not necessarily mean that we overestimate teams from the previous year, but simply that we&#039;re bad at picking top 25 teams overall. If there is a similar drop for preseason top 25 teams that weren&#039;t successful the previous year, wouldn&#039;t that be an indication that wrongly picking top 25 teams in the preseason isn&#039;t about previous years success, but about overall uncertainties before a single game is played.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Doesn&#8217;t this trend not necessarily mean that we overestimate teams from the previous year, but simply that we&#8217;re bad at picking top 25 teams overall. If there is a similar drop for preseason top 25 teams that weren&#8217;t successful the previous year, wouldn&#8217;t that be an indication that wrongly picking top 25 teams in the preseason isn&#8217;t about previous years success, but about overall uncertainties before a single game is played.</p>
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