Rush The Court

We’re just so excited that games are tipping off today that we had to spend some time thinking about what we’re about to see. As a result, the Pac-12 and Big 12 microsites got together to review this afternoon’s Iowa State vs. Colorado matchup from beautiful downtown Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Ken Pomeroy’s FanMatch system rates this as the second-best contest on opening day (behind only Gonzaga vs. Pittsburgh) and lists Iowa State as a five-point favorite. Below Brian Goodman and Andrew Murawa make a case why either team will walk away from Sioux City with its first victory of the season.

Colorado will win if:

• It gets good play out of the point guard position. Last year, the Buffaloes’ combination of Askia Booker, Xavier Talton and Dominique Collier combined to lead a Colorado offense that turned the ball over on almost 20 percent of its possessions and struggled mightily to find good looks in the half-court. Forty percent of Colorado’s field goal attempts came at the rim (57th in the nation) but just 45 percent of those came off of assists (166th); 28 percent of its shots came from three (300th) but just 82% of those were assisted (249th). Booker’s now gone — and given that he was about the only Buffs’ player who could consistently find those looks for himself — Talton and particularly Collier are going to need to prove that they can find good looks for their teammates (and themselves, when necessary). Now, if Iowa State under Steve Prohm is anything like it was under Fred Hoiberg, the Cyclones are not going to spend a lot of effort on pressure defense intended to force turnovers. That means that the Colorado point guards could have the best conditions possible to get their season off on the right foot.
• It’s a new season and all but last year’s Cyclones were Charmin soft inside the paint defensively. Sure, Jameel McKay is a fine shot-blocker, swatting away just under nine percent of opponents’ two-point field goal attempts when he was in the game last season. But if McKay is not busy rejecting opponents, those shots stand a good chance of converting if the ball enters the paint. Last year the Cyclones ranked a paltry 335th in the nation in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. The flip side of that number is that — partially because they allowed so many three-point attempts — they were among the best in the nation in limiting opponents’ looks at the rim. For a team of Buffaloes without many established three-point shooters, the key to victory may be passing up some of those open three-point looks in order to work the ball inside to more efficient inside scorers like Josh Scott and Wesley Gordon.

Iowa State will win if…

• It takes advantage of Colorado’s obvious question marks in the backcourt. As Andrew mentioned above, Talton and Collier have yet to prove themselves at this level, and that’s going to be a big problem when they stare down the barrel of an Iowa State attack led by Monte’ Morris. Morris is a very good passer who also sported a microscopic 10.7 percent turnover rate last season. If that weren’t enough, Prohm has stated aspirations of utilizing Morris as a bigger scoring threat this season. If the early returns indicate that Prohm can mimic success with Morris similar to that of Isaiah Canaan and Cameron Payne at Murray State, it could result in a very long day for Colorado’s backcourt.
• Colorado doesn’t have much of an offensive ceiling as a team, which bodes well for Iowa State’s questionable defense, but it does have a surprising amount of muscle on the interior. The more effective Scott and Gordon can be inside and frustrate Jameel McKay, the less the team’s odds are of having to abandon that part of their attack in an effort to play catch-up with Iowa State’s potent shooters. A good outing from the reigning Big 12 Defensive Player Of The Year would be helpful, though Iowa State’s three-point arsenal makes it possible that they could win in spite of McKay if he has a down game. Would it be too much for the Cyclones to ask for a little bit of help on defense from YMCA Hall-of-Famer Georges Niang?