Big 12 Preview: Kansas State’s Burning Question
Posted by Brian Goodman on November 2nd, 2015Burning Question: Does Bruce Weber have enough pieces to survive another year in Manhattan?
When Bruce Weber took the Kansas State job in 2012, it was one that came stocked with quality talent in the cupboard. Rodney McGruder, Will Spradling, Shane Southwell and Angel Rodriguez may not have been as good as the core Steve Prohm is inheriting this year at Iowa State, but as a first-year head coach at a new program, Weber arrived in Manhattan with a team built to win immediately. And win Kansas State did, sharing the 2013 Big 12 regular season crown with Kansas and going to a school record fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament the following year. As nice as that was for the program, the question with Weber has never been about what he could do with a previous coach’s players. His critics, rather, have focused on the lack of development exhibited by the players he brings to campus. By that measure, Weber hasn’t been any better in Manhattan than he was at Illinois. In fact, he may have even taken a step back, and the fallout of a disastrous 2015 could be too much for him to overcome this time around.
Few things went Bruce Weber’s way in 2014-15. With another long year in the forecast, how patient will Kansas State’s administration be? (Photo: cjonline.com)
Last season was the first time Weber’s Kansas State roster was largely composed of players he had recruited and the early returns couldn’t have been more discouraging. As if a 15-17 record — the team’s worst since 2003 — wasn’t bad enough, a rash of off-court issues led to six dismissals and transfers. While it’s admirable that Weber places such a high value on team chemistry among his players, it’s now tough to picture him having enough talent on hand to produce the kind of year that would lead athletic director John Currie to offer him another season.
Let’s talk about the consequences of those roster defections for a moment. Marcus Foster, Malek Harris and Tre Harris were dismissed, while Jevon Thomas, Nigel Johnson and Jack Karapetyan transferred. Combined with the graduations of Nino Williams and Thomas Gipson and a career-ending wrist injury for Brandon Bolden, the result is a mere four returning scholarship players on this year’s roster, none of whom averaged more than 6.3 points or 3.5 rebounds per game last season.
The Wildcats will have to lean heavily on small forward Wesley Iwundu, the lone survivor of Kansas State’s 2012 recruiting class. He may have had a better junior season if not for all the dysfunction around him, as he can do a little bit of everything while on the floor. If surrounded by better and more cohesive talent, Iwundu would be the ideal glue guy in a starting lineup. Unfortunately for everyone involved, he’s going to have to do far more than that for this year’s Wildcats. A substantial offensive role is probably in the cards but not ideal — Iwundu shot only 40.3 percent from the floor last season and is a career 61.8 percent foul shooter. He has shown promise as a defensive rebounder and defender, but as someone whose career scoring high is a mere 13 points, he’s not exactly the guy to rely on for instant offense.
Junior forward D.J. Johnson might be the most intriguing of the returnees. A 6’9″ forward, Johnson appeared to be developing two campaigns ago before two surgeries to repair a broken foot sidelined him for 16 months. Now healthy, Johnson should provide the size and energy down low that the Wildcats sorely lacked last season. Local product and Rivals150 forward Dean Wade could also help carry some of the load as a freshman.
The ‘Cats will rely heavily on Wesley Iwundu this season. (Photo: Getty)
In the backcourt, senior Justin Edwards will shoulder most of the expectations for Kansas State’s offense. If last season is any indication, that’s not a great sign. A transfer from Maine, Edwards struggled to make the adjustment to the more competitive Big 12, scoring just 6.3 points per game and shooting just 29.6 percent from deep. The Wildcats hope clean looks for Edwards will be easier to come by this year, but it could be a challenge given that Kansas State’s point guards — freshman Kamau Stokes and Juco All-American Carlbe Ervin — will face big learning curves as newcomers.
The new look Wildcats will undoubtedly struggle in conference play. It’s not all that difficult to picture a scenario where they finish further down the standings than perennial cellar-dwellers TCU and Texas Tech. On the positive side, Kansas State’s non-conference schedule should provide several opportunities to get comfortable and generate some early confidence. While projections can be tricky, just five of Kansas State’s 13 non-league opponents are ranked above them to start the season (via KenPom). The one potentially rude awakening could come in the bracketed portion of the CBE Classic, where Weber’s club could be pitted against North Carolina.
If any Kansas State fans are looking for historical signs that this team may not be as bad as it appears on paper, they might find them in Weber’s last four seasons at Illinois. While the Illini missed the NCAA Tournament in 2008, they bounced back with three consecutive 20-win seasons and two NCAA Tournament bids. Those teams defended well, especially on the perimeter, while their offenses played at slower tempos. If there’s a blueprint for success for a team as limited in talent as this Kansas State team, it would definitely involve playing slowly and keeping opponents from getting hot from deep. This team probably doesn’t have the on-paper talent to win 20 games, but if Weber can soundly instill his defensive principles, the Wildcats might have a fighting chance to be a competitive team in the Big 12. The more likely reality is that the program’s current dearth of talent and excess of inexperience will prove too much to overcome.
After a nightmarish 2014-15 campaign, Kansas State is ready to start fresh. Weber’s contract runs through the 2019 season, but even one more rough season could cut his tenure in Manhattan well short.
Brian Goodman a Big 12 microsite writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BSGoodman.
