Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @vtbnblog.

Making Their Case

The forecasters say three conference teams — Davidson, Dayton and Virginia Commonwealth — are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament’s field of 68. Meanwhile three other teams — George Washington, Rhode Island and Richmond — are projected as a #4 seed or higher in the NIT. In an ironic twist all too common for the Atlantic 10, the #1 seed in the conference tournament, Davidson, holds the lowest projected NCAA seed (#11) while the highest projected NCAA seed, Virginia Commonwealth (#8), fell to fifth in the conference race. While the projected NIT contingent are all comfortably “in,” none appear on anyone’s NCAA “First Four” or “Next Four Out” lists. Short of a win on Sunday, the destination for those three teams will not change.

Jordan Price (#21), who scored a game-high 28 points Thursday afternoon against UMass, will likely need to show that type of production again against Davidson. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

For the nine teams not penciled into either of the premier postseason tournaments, Wednesday and Thursday at the Atlantic 10 Tournament have become the moment of truth. Saint Louis and George Mason did not make it out of Wednesday night. It also ended poorly for a Massachusetts team that came out on the short end of a 77-69 game against La Salle. When asked about a potential CBI or CIT bid, UMass coach Derek Kellogg declined. NIT or bust. For Saint Joseph’s, last year’s tournament champion, the season ended at the hands of St. Bonaventure. With a 13-18 record, Phil Martelli’s Hawks will recuperate on Hawk Hill and plan for next season. The Bonnies must continue to win in order to work their way into the postseason conversation. They could steal an NIT bid if they can gather two more top 100 wins (which they will have to do to advance to the Sunday game). Taking down Dayton and then either George Washington or Rhode Island should do. Having compiled an 0-4 record versus that competition, however, and with star point guard Jaylen Adams sidelined, the odds are good that they will watch the game from the comfort of their dorms in Olean, New York.

For the six teams slated for postseason destinations, especially VCU, Davidson, and Dayton, the priority is to protect their seed this weekend.

• Compiling a good but not great non-conference record of 10-3 that included wins over Tennessee, Belmont and Cincinnati, Shaka Smart’s crew from VCU had a piece of first place in the conference until an early February injury sidelined seniors Briante Weber (out for the season) and Treveon Graham (ankle, out for two games). A consensus #8 seed, Smart has yet to recalibrate a Weber-less offense and defense. Getting by a scrappy Fordham team Thursday was critical to protect the Rams’ expected seed. The win, however, a 63-57 grind-out game that was not decided until the 38th minute, will not impress the Selection Committee. The Rams will have to do better Friday when they face #4 seed Richmond.
• Given a weak non-conference schedule, Davidson was lightly regarded despite a non-conference record of 9-2. Wins Friday and Saturday would bolster their case for a seed in the upper half of the NCAA field.
• Dayton needs to rest. A win on Friday against St. Bonaventure should be enough.
• Of the three NIT-bound teams, only Richmond, with a combined record of 3-2 over the NCAA-bound teams, is the strongest candidate to change its postseason fortunes.

How well VCU plays defense will go a long way to deciding its postseason fate. In Thursday’s victory over Fordham, the Rams forced Fordham into 16 turnovers and held them to 38 percent shooting. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

Of Particular Interest on Friday…

• Davidson vs. La Salle — This will be the first A-10 Tournament for coach Bob McKillop’s Wildcats, so the New York City media will get their first look at the league’s newest addition. When asked about Davidson, UMass coach Derek Kellogg compared the Wildcats’ offense to Virginia’s defense. “They [Virginia] are one of the most efficient teams defensively. Davidson is like that on offense.” Davidson’s quarterfinal opponent will be La Salle — the Explorers eliminated Massachusetts 74-69 in Thursday’s popcorn game. La Salle’s senior center Steve Zack does not match up well with McKillop’s non-traditional centers. Despite home court advantage, the Explorers could not keep Davidson below 40 percent in losing to the Wildcats by eight on St. Valentine’s Day. La Salle may have to move forward Jerrell Wright to the center spot to counter Davidson’s forward-like centers, and Dr. John Giannini’s guards will have to run Jake Gibbs and McKillop’s corps of gunners off their spots. This will be a tall order given how much the Explorers rely on seven-foot senior Steve Zack in the low post.
• Virginia Commonwealth vs. Richmond — This crosstown rivalry gets a third chance this season as the two will meet Friday in the A-10 Tournament quarterfinals. NIT-bound Richmond won the first two meetings by a combined 13 points but took two overtimes in the second game to put the Rams away. When asked about Richmond after VCU beat Fordham, junior guard Melvin Johnson offered, “It’s like the city campus versus the private campus. Nine miles apart, but it’s like a different world.” Smart may have minimized the competitive nature of the two schools, “We thought we stole that second game in overtime, but they stole it back.” Expect the intensity level to be very high as VCU, with an NCAA seed to protect, fights to get back to the championship game for the third consecutive year. Given the injuries and losses that piled up for the Rams in February, Smart’s group needs top 100 wins to keep the bid-stealers at bay. HAVOC will not rattle the Spiders’ veteran backcourt, and Smart will have to hope Mel Johnson can get back on track.

Friday’s Quarterfinal Schedule (all games on NBCSN)

• La Salle vs. Davidson (12:00 PM EST)
• VCU vs. Richmond (2:30 PM EST)
• St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton (6:30 PM EST)
• George Washington vs. Rhode Island (9:00 PM EST)

This entry was posted on Friday, March 13th, 2015 at 8:31 am by Joe Dzuback (@vtbnblog) and is filed under 2015 conference tournaments, microsites, other 26. Tagged: atlantic 10 tournament, barclays center, bob mckillop, davidson, dayton, derek kellogg, Dr. John Gianinni, feature, george washington, massachusetts, phil martelli, rhode island, saint joseph's, st bonaventure, vcu. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.