Believe it or not, another Pac-12 regular season is behind us. The final standings are in, the conference tournament bracket is set, and as I type this, we’re less than a week away from finding out which teams get sent where on Selection Sunday. We’ll have much more on this front throughout the week, but below we’ll review the Pac-12’s most likely NCAA Tournament suspects and figure out where they stand with only conference tournament play remaining before the field is set.
Arizona
- Outlook: The Wildcats were the class of the conference this season, running through the Pac-12 with a 16-2 record a full three games better than runners-up Utah and Oregon. What’s more, their 28-3 overall record and #7 RPI rating puts the Wildcats squarely in the conversation for a #1 seed. Kentucky’s got one of those four spots locked up. It’s hard to foresee Virginia and Duke failing to get two others, leaving Arizona in a battle with Villanova, Wisconsin and even Kansas for the final top seed. In the grand scheme of things, though, it doesn’t matter if the ‘Cats get a #1 or a #2 seed so long as they stay out west and away from Kentucky for as long as possible, preferably in the Los Angeles regional. Right now it appears that Wisconsin and Villanova are slightly ahead of Arizona in overall resume, so even if the Wildcats win the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas this week, Arizona may be locked into a #2 regardless. All of which paints the specter of a possible Arizona/Wisconsin regional final as an intriguing possibility.
- Best case: #1 seed in the West.
- Worst case: #2 seed anywhere but the West.
Oregon
- Outlook: The Ducks? The #2 seed in the Pac? Who saw that coming back on January 18, as Oregon dropped the second of two games on the Washington road swing to drop to 2-3 in conference play? Behind Joseph Young and a collection of talented newcomers, the Ducks have since won 11 of 13 games and cemented a spot in the Big Dance. Even a quarterfinal loss in Las Vegas (to either Oregon State or Colorado) won’t keep the Ducks from the field of 68. The consensus puts Oregon somewhere in the #7-#10 range, meaning it will have to put together something special to survive the first weekend. But if the Ducks can somehow notch wins over Utah and Arizona during this week’s festivities in Vegas, can they sneak up to a #6 seed? Is a #5 seed out of the question in that scenario?
- Best case: #5 seed, and hey, maybe they’re sent to Seattle.
- Worst case: #9 seed in the Midwest, Kentucky’s likely region.
Utah
- Outlook: Prior to their game against Arizona last weekend, the Utes seemed locked in as a #3 NCAA Tournament seed in a worst-case scenario. But since being overtaken by the Wildcats in the Huntsman Center two Saturdays ago, the Utes have looked rather ordinary in mailing in an unimpressive split in Washington and dropping to a #3 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament. That shouldn’t cause Utah a whole lot of damage beyond the possibility of facing a hungry Stanford team in the quarterfinals with enough height, experience and talent to give them trouble. If the Utes drop that game to the Cardinal, maybe that results in an NCAA Tournament #5 seed, which means that its preferential geographic seeding disappears. That would be a big blow, as an opening weekend in Portland or Seattle would provide for a decent travel advantage. Win the Pac-12 Tourney and the Utes will get back to the #3 seed line. Anything in between those two extremes and we’ll probably see Larry Krystkowiak’s team as a #4 seed on Selection Sunday, likely in the Portland pod.
- Best case: #3 seed, sent to Portland for first weekend.
- Worst case: #5 seed, sent to the apocalyptic hellhole east of the Rockies.
UCLA
- Outlook: The Bruins took care of business down the stretch against bad competition to earn the #4 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament, but they still find themselves on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tournament. From my perspective, UCLA finds itself with a pretty clear challenge: beat Arizona. Steve Alford’s team will face the winner of Arizona State/USC in its quarterfinal game, but a win over either one isn’t going to make much of a difference. That puts the Bruins in a semifinal game against Arizona. There’s your big chance, UCLA — you’re standing at the plate down a run with the bases jammed and two outs but you’re facing a fresh closer who is bringing plenty of heat. Get a knock and you’re through. Strike out and host an NIT game. Them’s the breaks.
- Best case: #10 seed and a lifetime of memories from a Pac-12 Tourney run.
- Worst case: hosting Bucknell at Pauley Pavilion in the NIT.
Everybody Else
- Win the Pac-12 Tournament or watch the NCAA Tournament from a comfortable couch. Even the notion of picking a sleeper from Arizona State on down is a stretch, but really, Stanford has no business playing as badly as it has been playing the last several weeks. The Cardinal have the tools to match up with Utah, but as losers of seven of their last 10 games they’ve done nothing to earn much confidence. Another deep, deep, deep cut might be Colorado. The Buffaloes have been an absolute mess this year from the head coach right on down the line, but they’re as healthy as they’re going to get and if that milk carton campaign to find Josh Scott is successful, they’re worth a flier.