It’s the game of the year in the Pac-12, a battle between the top two teams — Arizona and Utah — with only a game separating them in the standings and a week to play. It’s also on the short list of the biggest games ever played in the Huntsman Center, quite a statement for a building with its long and illustrious history. Both teams have legitimate Final Four aspirations. Both teams have every expectation of being top three seeds when the brackets are announced on Selection Sunday. As many as four players in this game could hear their name called in the first round of the NBA Draft in June, each of those players with lottery potential. In short, on the final day of February, we’ll be treated to full-on March basketball. Let’s break it down, with three keys to tonight’s game.
- Home court advantage. Playing at just under 5,000 feet in Salt Lake City, the Utes enjoy quite a home court advantage at the Huntsman Center. They’ve won all 17 of their games there this season by an average of 24 points per outing. They’re outscoring teams there by an average of 0.40 points per possession. Only one team (Wichita State) has managed to keep within 14 of the Utes. And the MUSS will be rabid tonight. Despite all those considerations, the Wildcats are no slouches on the road. All three of their losses this season have come in games where maybe they overlooked their opponents. Understand that there is no chance that the ‘Cats will overlook the Utes today. Still, the Utes will come out riding a wave of momentum following Senior Day ceremonies for Delon Wright and Dallin Bachynski. Their home fans will be load and raucous. Whenever Utah needs a shot of adrenaline in the middle of the game, the Huntsman Center will have its back. And perhaps most importantly against an Arizona team that really only wants to play six players, maybe that elevation could be a deciding factor down the stretch. We’ve certainly seen short-benched Arizona teams struggle against the Rocky Mountain schools in the past.
- Defense. The overall defensive numbers for these two teams are pretty similar: They both rank in the top five nationally by giving up an adjusted average of 87 points per 100 possessions, but they do it in slightly different ways. Arizona plays a version of the pack-line defense, putting an emphasis on making opponents shoot contested jumpers while cleaning up the offensive glass. With elite athletes like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson capable of making plays on defense, the ‘Cats don’t just pack it in, though. They’re more than capable of forcing turnovers and turning those opportunities into easy transition hoops. Utah, on the other hand, really only has one elite defensive play-maker on the perimeter in Wright. He’s capable of making game-changing defensive plays on his own, and freshman rim-protector Jakob Poeltl certainly has his back should Wright choose to cheat, but the Utah defense is much more of a pack-it-in and make teams hit threes look. That said, the Utes have only given up a total of 19 made threes in their five losses. In other words, don’t play into their willing hands and take those relatively good looks but work it inside and try to challenge the paint first. This is true even if opponents are only shooting 50 percent at the rim against the Utes (good for 24th in the nation). Again, both of these teams sport elite defenses, so there aren’t going to be any obvious weaknesses but there is quite a good chance that this game turns into a blow-for-blow defensive battle.
- Stars playing within themselves. It’s no secret that the game of basketball is built around stars. With only five players on the court at a time, there is no room for weakness. And with guys like Wright, Johnson, Hollis-Jefferson and Poeltl in this game – not to mention T.J. McConnell, Brandon Taylor, Jordan Loveridge, Brandon Ashley and more – everybody will want to make a big splash on the game’s highest stage. And that’s fine. But you’ve got to balance aggressiveness with intelligence and teamwork. Case in point: Wright wasn’t his usual hyper-efficient self in the first outing, forcing the action as the second 10 minutes of the game got away from the Utes and winding up with four turnovers along with just 10 points. He’ll again be the focus of Arizona’s defense and he certainly can’t just let the ‘Cats force the ball out of his hands in order to become a talented decoy. But he’ll need to find a way to draw the defense and find teammates for clean looks. He’ll need to take advantage of the handful of times he can earn relatively clean single coverage in the halfcourt. On the other bench, Johnson has been, at times, a little overeager in looking for his shot. That won’t do on Saturday night. Poise and patience will be key words, but across the board, guys will need to take advantage of open opportunities when they arise because there won’t be many of them and they won’t last very long.