RTC Weekly Primer: SEC Squishy Middle, Love for Big 12, Coach 1K, More…
Posted by Henry Bushnell on January 20th, 2015Okay, okay, we get it… the Big 12 is awesome. I’ve made that pretty clear in past columns, and you probably don’t need me to tell you something so obvious. Monday night offered up yet another prominent example, when a “Kansas is back to its dominant self” narrative in the first half against Oklahoma turned into one of the best games of conference play this season. But rather than raving about it, let’s think big picture: What do we make of the Big 12 race? A few teams will definitely be involved. One is Kansas, of course, which hasn’t missed out on at least a share of the regular season crown since Bill Self’s first year in Lawrence. Two more are Texas, which seems to have found its footing, and Iowa State, which finally cleared the Kansas hurdle over the weekend. Oklahoma should be in the running too, despite losing three of its last four. What other teams could have a say in the matter? How about Kansas State, which is tied for the conference lead at 4-1? What about West Virginia, currently 15-3 and a top-15 KenPom team? Or Baylor? Or Oklahoma State?
The Big 12 Will Remain a War Zone For Most of the Season (USA Today Images)
It’s probably safe to rule out those last two teams even though both are ranked among KenPom’s top 25, but neither is likely to beat the teams above them on a consistent basis. It’s also fair to exclude Kansas State from the discussion. The Wildcats are clearly much better than their non-conference performance suggested, but recent wins over Baylor and at Oklahoma don’t tell the full story either. They have some flaws. However, it’s probably a tad premature to rule out West Virginia. The Mountaineers play such a distinctly effective style this season, forcing turnovers on over 30 percent of opponents’ possessions, that will remain a problem to solve for all nine conference foes. They’re a possession away from a 4-1 Big 12 record and the upcoming schedule suggests that we shouldn’t be surprised if Bob Huggins has his team sitting at 6-2 when this column runs two weeks from now. It appears to be a five-team race. But whether you think the Big 12 has four, five, or even six or seven teams capable of winning the league crown, the takeaway here is that the race is wide open. And with Kansas’ astounding decade-long run in jeopardy, the next two months in Middle America are must-watch sports television.
Three for the Money
- Iowa at Wisconsin | Tuesday, 9:00 PM EST, ESPN. Around this time last year, Iowa sat at 13-3 on the season and waltzed into Value City Arena to take on 15-1 Ohio State. The Buckeyes at the time were KenPom’s second-ranked team and their only loss had come earlier in the week at Michigan State. They also hadn’t given up more than 70 points in a game. The Hawkeyes delivered one of the more impressive Big Ten performances last season, winning by 10 points and vaulting themselves from seemingly out of nowhere into KenPom’s top five. They are presented with a similar opportunity tonight against Wisconsin. With the memory of last year’s collapse still fresh, many people remain unsure of what to make of Fran McCaffery’s team – the Hawkeyes have defeated a questionable Ohio State team twice and won at North Carolina, but the rest of their résumé is dubious. A win in Madison would force the nation to take notice. For Wisconsin, this is its first real test since the loss of senior point guard Traevon Jackson. It could provide a platform for replacement Bronson Koenig to step up his game, but it also could reveal a major midterm problem for Bo Ryan. Tonight’s game will tell us a lot about which it will be.
- Arizona at Stanford | Thursday, 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2. This could qualify as an upset alert, but Stanford graduated from the underdog’s role when it knocked off Texas in December and shot up the Pac-12 standings with a 4-1 record. Instead, this Thursday night game should be a straight-up dogfight. The Cardinal are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation (40.2%), and if there’s one area in which Arizona’s defense is vulnerable, it’s from beyond the arc. Arizona is probably too talented and experienced to fall victim to the classic letdown theory, but it shouldn’t matter here. Johnny Dawkins’ team is legitimately good and poses a real threat to the Wildcats. Oh, and Bill Walton will likely be on the call on ESPN2… need I say more?
- Kansas at Texas | Saturday, 2:00 PM EST, CBS. Sorry to belabor the point, but the Big 12 is also home to the best game of the week. Many analysts labeled Texas as the league favorite about a month ago. The Longhorns were rolling, even without Isaiah Taylor in the lineup, and gave Kentucky a legitimate game in Lexington.But something went astray as the calendar turned to 2015. Texas was stifled by rival Oklahoma two weeks ago in Austin, then stumbled again at Oklahoma State. But in demolishing West Virginia on Saturday and following it up with an easy win at TCU on Monday, the Longhorns assured everybody that they’ll be just fine. Both teams will have five days to prepare for Saturday’s giant tilt, and the Jayhawks will need every minute of rest as their three most recent games were high-possession battles. This game will be slower and feature a match-up of frontcourts that will be crucial toward determining the outcome of the game.
What is the Hierarchy Behind Kentucky in the SEC?
Florida and Georgia Have Designs on Leading the SEC’s Squishy Middle Tier. (USA Today Images)
It’s chaotic, that’s what it is. There’s a clump of eight schools behind Kentucky that should regularly beat up on each other over the next two months, and it’s entirely possible that an 11-7 (or even 10-8) record could be good enough to finish second in the league standings. Florida and Tennessee have started hot; Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama and LSU are all dangerous; South Carolina is one of the best defensive teams in the nation; and Ole Miss is clearly better than everybody expected. When you think about it, the SEC actually isn’t all that dissimilar to the Big Ten this season. There’s one team at the top followed by two jumbled tiers — one of potential NCAA Tournament teams, and another of outsiders. Truthfully, only the existence of Maryland as a second really good team in the Big Ten separates the two leagues.
Mid-Major Watch – East Coast Edition
There are three big games this week outside of the Power Six basketball leagues. First, the Atlantic 10’s surprise unit, Dayton, gets its toughest conference test yet tonight. The Flyers have started 5-0 in A-10 play but so far have avoided the rest of the conference’s top six teams. Davidson, on the other hand, is the sixth most efficient offensive team in the nation, and will look to push the tempo to find open threes in transition. Both teams are still very much in the NCAA Tournament’s at-large picture, so this is a key game for each program.
Mid-Major Watch – West Coast Edition
There are a couple pivotal games in the West’s two premier mid-major conferences this week. In the WCC, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are both 7-0 as the Gaels travel to Spokane in a rivalry battle on Thursday night. The Zags will be heavy favorites, but St. Mary’s behind sneaky-good senior Brad Waldow is still a bit of an unknown entity. Then, in the Mountain West, San Diego State visits Colorado State late Saturday night. The Aztecs have responded nicely to earlier worries after a bad loss to Fresno State, getting an especially pivotal win over Wyoming last week. If Steve Fisher’s team can grab another road win in Colorado Springs, there would be a little more clarity atop the Mountain West, with San Diego State and Wyoming as the clear top dogs in that conference.
No. 1,000 For K at the Garden?
Coach K Notched #999 Last Night. Will 1K Come Sunday? (USA Today Images)
After Monday night’s win over Pittsburgh, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski will enter Sunday’s non-conference contest with St. John’s with 999 career victories under his belt. And if No. 1,000 wasn’t going to come at Duke’s Cameron Indoor Stadium, is there a better place for the legendary coach to get it than Madison Square Garden, a building with so much history, grandeur and Duke’s second home over the years? You might say that a win in Chapel Hill would provide a spicier storyline, but it would be plenty cool to see Coach K break four figures in Ws at MSG.
Upset Alert!
We’re going to go a little off the grid this week to Normal – that’s right, Normal, Illinois – where No. 20 Northern Iowa heads to play Illinois State on Sunday. The Redbirds are just 11-7 overall and 3-3 in the Missouri Valley, but they’re a lot better than those records would otherwise indicate. As always, this is more of a gut call than anything else, but just like Gonzaga vs. Pepperdine last week, which was oh-so-close to working out, this just seems like an awkward spot for a Northern Iowa team that isn’t good enough to storm through the Valley.
Crunch Time For…
- Purdue – Before the season began, Purdue seemed like a good bet for the lowest Big Ten tier, but right now, the Boilermakers look like tweeners. If Matt Painter’s club can notch two wins this week – at Illinois and at home against Iowa – they’ll be firmly within that middle tier. If they lose both, they’re probably where we thought they’d be.
- SEC Second Tier – There are a ton of games between many of those teams mentioned above, including three tonight and another one on Wednesday. It’s time to start seeing some separation within this group.
- ACC Bubble Teams – It’s an especially a big week for Miami, which needs to prove that its win last week at Cameron Indoor Stadium was no fluke. The Hurricanes get a Thursday/Saturday slate that starts with NC State at home and concludes with Syracuse on the road. Incidentally, the Orange and the Wolfpack are Miami’s fellow league bubble teams. NC State also gets a huge opportunity on Sunday when it hosts Notre Dame, and Syracuse desperately needs two home wins over Boston College and Miami before its schedule gets considerably harsher.
CBB Survivor Picks
- ACC: Duke – I’m still alive here and will move on again. I took Duke, which handled Pittsburgh on Monday night in its only conference match-up of the week.
- Big East: St. John’s – Again, only one conference game, against Marquette on Wednesday night.
- Big Ten: Michigan State – A game at Nebraska is no gimme, but Sparty is the best Big Ten bet this week. Izzo’s teams seem to rebound well from tough losses.
- Big 12: Iowa State – Still alive here as well. I’ll go with the Cyclones, an 11-point favorite over Kansas State tonight, followed by the only comfortable Big 12 road trip this season, at Texas Tech.
- Pac 12: Utah – Can’t see the Utes losing in home games against the Washington schools this week.
- SEC: Georgia – Even though there’s probably a less than 50 percent chance the Bulldogs go 2-0 against Ole Miss and at Mississippi State, but there’s just so much parity in the SEC.
