Michigan State’s non-conference schedule has been defined by missed opportunities – first against Duke, then Kansas, then Notre Dame – and now, for the first time in years, it will enter Big Ten play with virtually zero quality wins of note. Only Texas Southern and the Citadel remain before the conference opener against Maryland beckons on December 30, the final two contests in an exceedingly soft five-game stretch that’s sure to leave the Spartans’ resume short on substance. And yet, as Wednesday night’s 20-point victory over Eastern Michigan showed, this light period might be the best possible scenario for Tom Izzo’s club. With two players returning from injury, Branden Dawson on the mend and the offense still finding its identity, December offers the crucial break Michigan State needs to round into form.
On the one hand, Wednesday night marked an important step forward for the Spartans. Freshman Javon Bess – an expected contributor who missed the first month-plus with a foot injury – made his debut, logging one point and five rebounds in nine minutes of action. Izzo was high on Bess in the preseason and seems confident that the 6’5’’ wing will add an important, unique dimension it’s been lacking. “We’re missing a tough guy, and he [Bess] brings that to the table,” the coach said afterward. Likewise, sophomore guard Alvin Ellis III contributed 14 minutes in just his second full game back in the rotation. But while both players should provide needed depth in the coming months (especially Bess, whom Izzo thinks is “going to be an Alan Anderson-type”), neither appears to be game-shape enough yet to significantly contribute. Bess looked very raw during his brief second-half stint – understandable, considering the layoff – and Ellis, though aggressive, appeared clumsy and lost on several possessions. Luckily, with the team’s soft slate and eight days off prior to Maryland, Izzo has the luxury of slowly working them back to form: “Now we have time for practice.”
And the Spartans might need Bess and Ellis more than they figured come Big Ten play, because just when it appeared the team was nearing full-strength, Dawson went down hard with a fractured wrist on Wednesday night. The senior forward (10.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG) – who tore his ACL in March 2012 and missed nine games last season with an injured hand – is by far team’s strongest interior presence, a premier rebounder (top 75 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate) with dynamic athleticism. “He’s going to miss some time, we just don’t know how much,” Izzo said. “These setbacks are hard on him, hard on us.” It’s another unfortunate break for Michigan State, which seems eternally beset by injuries, but the good news is that Dawson landed on his non-shooting wrist and will have some time to heal before the schedule ramps up. Plus, the reportedly-versatile Bess is healthy just in time to fill in for Dawson (alongside freshman Marvin Clarke Jr.), should he miss time.
Finally, as if the injuries and return-from-injuries weren’t reason enough for Michigan State to covet its holiday break, the chance it offers Izzo to work on his offensive sets certainly is. The Spartans entered Wednesday as the best three-point shooting team in college basketball, an attribute that came in handy against Eastern Michigan’s 2-3 zone early on; Travis Trice and Bryn Forbes used five first-half triples to open a 15-point lead at the break, one the Eagles were never able to recover from. But lights-out perimeter shooting (44.4%) hasn’t merely been the Spartans’ strong-suit in 2014-15 – it’s been the focal point thus far, to an uncharacteristic degree. Only once since 2002 has a Tom Izzo squad taken as many three-pointers per field goal attempt, and never has its outside scoring weighed as heavily in its overall point distribution (36.2% of total points). Obviously, when you have shooters like Trice and Forbes you want to play to their strengths, but it makes sense that Michigan State’s 20th-year coach wants to work on things during the break – especially considering his team ranks dead last in the Big Ten in free throw rate. “I think this is going to be a time to really home in on our offensive stuff,” Izzo said after the game. For a guy who’s made a living preaching interior toughness, you can bet he will integrate more sets aimed at attacking the basket.
As long as Dawson’s injury is manageable — the latest reports suggest he’ll be out a couple of games – the outlook is bright for Michigan State entering the New Year. Not only have Bess and Ellis rejoined the fold, but big man Matt Costello is coming into his own offensively (he scored 10 points against EMU; his third-straight game in double figures), Marvin Clarke Jr. continues to exceed his freshman expectations and Trice looks more and more the like the leader Izzo envisioned. And the coach himself sees something he didn’t see back in November: “It was encouraging seeing guys reach down and do some things that maybe they weren’t doing in those bigger games.”
The only question now is whether his team can make the necessary strides before more big games – and resume opportunities – roll around.