Remember when the Illini had three guards who could man the offense with no trouble from 2003-05? Luther Head, Deron Williams and Dee Brown could set up the offense without any confusion, move the ball around with confidence, and pull up for a three without any issues if the shot clock was winding down. Yep, that was about 10 years ago. Since the trio left Champaign, though, Illinois has struggled to find a consistent point guard comfortable with both distributing the ball and creating his own shot. Chester Frazier didn’t really have a consistent jumper. Demetri McCamey was versatile on the offense but he couldn’t consistently involve his teammates. Brandon Paul was a combo guard, and while Tracy Abrams commanded respect from his teammates, he just didn’t have enough quickness to utilize his offensive moves and still carry a consistent assist rate. With Abrams now gone, there was a glimmer of hope that incoming transfer Ahmad Starks could be the efficient point guard to finally lead an offense that could launch the program back into the Big Ten elite. But after the first month of the season, the situation appears as bad as the last few seasons in that regard.
Ahmad Starks hasn’t been able to exceed Tracy Abrams’ performance from last season so far this year.
Starks’ game has several positives: He is quick to get around screens and has a much better looking three-point shot than Abrams. While a 35 percent mark from three isn’t all that impressive, his average is more a result of poor shot selection than mechanics. He also hasn’t been able to connect with his teammates during the second half of important games. Let’s take the latest loss to Oregon as an example. Even though Illinois assisted on 17 of its successful field goals, the offense looked completely clueless when it mattered. If the ball went inside to the low post, it never came back out. There was no lateral movement. If Starks couldn’t break his defender down, he dumped it over to Malcolm Hill who did the same – scoring only six points. The same goes for Aaron Cosby and Kendrick Nunn. Illini shot a respectable 37 percent from beyond the arc but taking 19 shots from there is concerning. There is no point guard who can set up plays that require ball movement and could actually result in a decent-looking shot in the waning minutes.
Backup guard Jaylon Tate may be the closest to a floor general on this roster, but his jumper is absolutely dismal. Defenders can play at least four feet off him and challenge him to shoot during nearly every possession. Confident ball-handling skills and knowledge of the offensive sets is useless if the defense is willing to completely discount one of the guards’ ability to score. Part of the excessive three-point shooting issue could be explained due to the lack of a true scoring threat in the post. Nnanna Egwu has never been good with his back to the basket but he could be a serviceable big man off of screens. Only a true point guard would be patient enough to call multiple screens until a good opportunity is found and, unfortunately for Illinois, John Groce doesn’t have one on his roster.
There doesn’t seem to have many choices left this season. Moving Nunn into the starting lineup will improve the defense and limit Aaron Cosby’s reckless shooting (33% 3FG) but the former isn’t comfortable playing point so Groce will have to rely on Starks for extended minutes and hope that Tate can push the tempo for a few fast-break buckets. Staying optimistic, Starks could develop a rapport with Hill and Nunn to lead an effective three-guard combination but that change will need to happen within the next month. With most of the Big Ten having a so-so non-conference season, the Illini won’t catch anybody sleeping come January. Both Michigan and Nebraska need to make up for their bad non-conference losses, and the rest of the middle of the pack will be very tough, even in Assembly Hall. A 7-3 record combined with mediocre point guard play indicates that Groce’s squad may be looking at another bubble team… once again.