A Battle of Blue Bloods: Previewing North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Posted by David Changas & Lathan Wells on December 13th, 2014Two college basketball titans renew their rivalry in Lexington Saturday when North Carolina visits Kentucky. RTC’s Lathan Wells and David Changas offer their analysis of the match-up, and give their takes on what it will take for each team to prevail.
David Changas: North Carolina has been particularly ineffective in keeping its opponents off the offensive glass – the Tar Heels currently allow their opponents to grab more than a third of their misses – and Kentucky leads the nation in offensive rebounding (46.1%). How can North Carolina combat the Wildcats’ prowess on the offensive boards?
Kennedy Meeks will have to be almost perfect for the Tar Heels to have a chance (draftexpress.com)
Lathan Wells: Honestly, I think this an effort issue. The Tar Heels, like the Wildcats, have plenty of size in the post. The two teams who made them look porous on the defensive boards were Butler and Iowa, both of which are much smaller than the Tar Heels, but which played much more aggressively. Brice Johnson has to stay out of the foul trouble that has plagued him recently, because Kennedy Meeks is undersized at the center spot. As you noted, the Wildcats’ offensive rebounding numbers are astonishing. But part of that has to do with the fact that they are only an average shooting team (currently 81st in the country in field goal percentage). If the Tar Heels are better on the glass than in those losses to Butler and Iowa, who has to step up their shooting to make sure the Wildcats’ shots count?
DC: There is no question that this has to be an area of serious concern for John Calipari. The Wildcats are shooting 27% from three-point range, and last year’s NCAA Tournament hero, Aaron Harrison, is a dreadful 10-for-44 beyond the arc. Of course, Kentucky’s size and incredible ability to attack the offensive glass has covered up this weakness. While the obvious answer to your question is better production from Harrison, having Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker, both of whom missed the Columbia game Wednesday, should help, as the two freshmen have been the Wildcats’ best shooters from beyond the arc. Like Kentucky, North Carolina has struggled from deep, and is shooting just 28% from three-point range. Kentucky is nearly impossible to score against on the interior, too. How can the Tar Heels score enough points to compete in Lexington, much less win the game?
LW: They pretty much have to play their most offensively sound game of the season. Marcus Paige is in a bit of a shooting slump to start the season, shooting only 35.5% from the field. He has to have his best game of the year and do it efficiently, since there aren’t many avenues for him to get to the basket against a team with this kind of size. If North Carolina can somehow duplicate its effort against UCLA, in which four players combined to hit eight threes in the game, that would be a huge boon to their chances to come out of Lexington a victor. The other important area of the game for North Carolina is at the charity stripe, where they’ve improved their shooting this season to a reasonable 70%. That would serve the dual purpose of getting free points and getting some of the Wildcats in foul trouble. Speaking of foul trouble, the much-ballyhooed platoon system has been an overwhelming success so far for Kentucky. But with the news that Alex Poythress is now done for the season, has there been an instance this season when the Wildcats had to mix-and-match personnel instead of staying with their assigned five to get any indication of how that may affect the team’s rhythm?
The loss of Alex Poythress could disrupt Kentucky’s platoon system (kentuckysportsradio.com)
DC: I’ve never really bought into the idea that Calipari will stick with the platoon system if his team faces adversity, and this may be such a situation where he abandons it. It remains to be seen how the Wildcats will react to the loss of their junior forward, who clearly has made huge strides since arriving on campus two years ago not quite ready to live up to the hype. The easy answer is that Kentucky is so deep that it can overcome a loss like this, but I think that argument makes more sense if it were one of the big men, whereas losing Poythress could present more of a challenge. As he did with Willie Cauley-Stein, who was dominant in playing 33 minutes in last week’s win over Texas, Calipari will go with whatever combination works to get his team the win, and it is likely that Trey Lyles will see more action going forward. For North Carolina, Marcus Paige and Kennedy Meeks have been its best players so far this year. To win in Lexington, it will need heroic efforts from more than just those two. Which other Tar Heel must step up if they are going to have any shot to pull off the upset?
LW: I think perhaps the most important player in this game is J.P. Tokoto for the Tar Heels. He’s not a consistent three-point threat, but his ability to rebound amongst bigs and his newfound propensity for hitting pull-up and mid-range jumpers makes him an offensive threat that may help offset the enormous size Kentucky can throw at North Carolina down low. His athleticism will allow him to handle playing against big guards, and his leaping ability makes him a player in the paint. If Tokoto is able to score somewhere in double figures, that would be a good sign for the Tar Heels. Along those same lines, Kentucky has so much talent that it’s difficult to say that one specific player has to play extremely well in any given game for them to win. But if North Carolina keeps this one close, who is the one Kentucky player who has to make the most impact from start to finish for the Wildcats to earn the victory?
DC: This is a tough question, simply because of the platoon system, and the fact that, other than Cauley-Stein against the Longhorns, no one has had to take over a game or be the go-to guy for Kentucky to win. Certainly, the Kentucky big men could wear down the Tar Heels on the interior, but as we saw in last year’s Big Dance, when the Wildcats really need someone to produce, Aaron Harrison is the man. He obviously has not played at the level Calipari would like so far, but he clearly relishes the big stage, and I expect we will see him take his game up a notch tomorrow.
- North Carolina wins if: They receive a Herculean effort from Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks are able to stay on the floor and keep the rebounding numbers close, and someone other than Paige knocks down multiple three-pointers. As said above, they basically have to pitch a perfect game.
- Kentucky wins if: It plays like it’s played through the season’s first 10 games. That seems simplistic, but the Wildcats are a 12-point favorite for a reason. Given that the game is being played in Rupp Arena, and how the two teams have played thus far, I think it will take nearly a perfect effort by North Carolina, and a disappointing performance by Kentucky, for the Tar Heels to come out of this one with a win.
