Rush The Court

As always, KenPom.com did the heavy lifting on the numbers.

Almost two years ago to the day, I penned a column on how much Houston missed its leading scorer, Joseph Young. Young had transferred to Oregon after the school fired his father from the position of Director of Basketball Operations and he is still lighting it up for the Ducks this season. Today I am going to revive the main idea of the column — that is, how much does Houston miss said player — and just plug the newer transfers in. Last season, junior TaShawn Thomas and sophomore Danuel House were far and away the best players on a very mediocre Houston team. Thomas led the team in nearly every category while shooting almost 60 percent from the field, and House was a close second in scoring and rebounding as well as the team’s most versatile two-way player. Unfortunately for Houston, both of those stars are playing college basketball elsewhere this season. Thomas is just across the state border at Oklahoma and House is even closer at Texas A&M.

The circumstances surrounding Thomas’ and House’s decisions weren’t nearly as interesting as the ones in Young’s case, even though new coach Kelvin Sampson tried very hard to keep the duo around. But the impact of the loss of the two players is effectively greater because we are taking about two all-league talents instead of one, and because the Cougars may have had an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament this season with them in the lineup.

Let’s start with Thomas since he was arguably the more important subtraction and because quantifying his absence is a bit trickier. He readily admitted that he wanted to use his last year of eligibility to play for a team that was already really good, and while it’s still very early, that move may be backfiring from an on-court development standpoint. Oklahoma is undoubtedly a better team than the Cougars and Thomas is firmly entrenched as a starter there, but his numbers are way down across the board and part of that is because he is no longer the primary offensive option. His percentage of possessions used and shots taken have dropped significantly (24.7% and 24.0% to 16.0% and 15.3%, respectively), and as a result, his offensive rating and effective field goal percentage have plummeted as well (111.4 ORtg and 59.2% to 91.6 ORtg and 51.1%,respectively). Even his once-excellent rebounding ability seems to have disappeared while his turnover rate has skyrocketed.

Still, despite his seeming regression, Houston would welcome Thomas back with open arms. Free of the burden of learning a new system and once again established as the offensive alpha dog, Thomas’ numbers would be a serious boon for a Cougars’ offense that has not shot the ball well from the field and is one of the nation’s worst at getting to the the free throw line. Defensively this season, Houston is actually pretty solid in the frontcourt. The Cougars do a great job of keeping opponents’ shooting percentages low and protecting the rim, but still, Thomas would have added much-needed depth to a front line which is essentially just Chicken Knowles and Devonta Pollard. But his most valuable missing attribute would really be whether he would return to form as an elite rebounder. The Cougars are one of the worst teams in the country in allowing offensive rebounds and while Thomas has grabbed just five offensive boards in seven games this season, his defensive rebounding rate has remained above-average.

House, meanwhile, sat out the first three games of the season at Texas A&M while waiting for the NCAA to clear him. He is in the lineup now, but early reports on his development are murky. The knock on House has always been that he is a better athlete than a basketball player — he could dunk on anyone, but his iffy shooting dragged down his efficiency and overall offensive impact. This season he made his presence felt immediately by going for 18 points and six rebounds in his first game back against New Mexico, but he scored just six points on 1-of-6 shooting and grabbed just one rebound in Saturday’s win against Arizona State, so his inconsistency remains. He too has experienced teammates around him eating up a fair amount of his possessions used and shots taken. His offensive rating has gotten a boost from improved three-point shooting, which is probably not sustainable, but he also doesn’t turn the ball over much and is a key part of one of the tougher defenses in the country. Houston is chalk-full of athletes at the wing, but Sampson would obviously jump at a chance to get House back too. Not only does he also get to the free throw line a lot and offer the Cougars’ mediocre defense an obvious boost, but I bet Sampson would enjoy it if a high-usage player wasn’t a constant threat to turn it over. His rangy rebounding abilities would be a nice plus as well.

It’s far too early to tell if Thomas and House can improve on their numbers from last season, and we haven’t seen enough of anyone involved to make an educated guess on whether the Cougars would have been an NCAA Tournament team with the duo back in the fold. But at 4-1, Houston is in for a rude awakening once it stops playing an assembly line of the country’s saddest programs, and House and Thomas would unquestionably have made the squad considerably better. Houston’s recent incoming transfers have been quite good on their own (Devonta Pollard, L.J. Rose, Eric Weary Jr.), so now if Sampson can simply improve upon the program’s retention rate, Houston might be back in business a little sooner than anyone expects.