The Big East microsite will preview each Big East team in tiers in preparation for the season’s tipoff. The bottom tier was released earlier this week; it can be found here. Yesterday: the middle tier of the conference. Today: the top tier, including Xavier, Georgetown and Villanova.
#3: Xavier
Xavier’s projected top three finish is less a testament to the team being talented and more a statement about the lack of quality, NCAA-caliber teams in the Big East this season. But that’s not to say the Musketeers will be a bad team. Senior Matt Stainbrook, arguably the conference’s most talented big man, will play a crucial role in serving as the team’s go-to scorer and anchor in the paint. While the 6’10” center has not been considered a primary option in his career, he has started in almost every game dating back to his first two years at Western Michigan. Coming off a season in which he averaged 10.6 points on 55.6 percent shooting (second in the Big East) and 7.4 rebounds (5th in the Big East) in just 24.4 minutes per game, head coach Chris Mack knows what he has in Stainbrook. With the departure of leading scorer Semaj Christon to the NBA, Stainbrook will be the team’s number one option. Also gone from last year’s NCAA Tournament team are two additional starters: junior forward Justin Martin (transfer) and senior forward Isaiah Philmore (graduation), who together combined for 29 percent of the team’s total points per game.
Yet the Musketeers still find themselves with a projected third place finish. Aside from Stainbrook, there are two reasons for this. First, point guard Dee Davis is back for his senior season. Davis has shown over his career that he can run an offense, averaging 4.7 assists per game last season (second in the Big East) with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.5-to-1. Second, Xavier brings in guard Remy Abell, an Indiana transfer, and six new freshman in an incoming class that ranks as one of the best in the program’s history. Headlining this list is 6’5 forward Trevon Bluiett, who could very well be the conference’s second best freshman behind Isaiah Whitehead. Bluiett is a big time scorer at the wing, and he will most likely see immediate playing time in the starting lineup as the Musketeers’ depth at the wings is limited. Additionally, the development of rising sophomores Jalen Reynolds and Myles Davis, who round out the starting lineup, will be instrumental in determining Xavier’s postseason success. Both players have shown flashes coming off the bench, but will need to find consistency if Xavier is to push for another NCAA Tournament bid. Given the team’s relatively weak non-conference schedule this season, the Musketeers will have to capitalize on their games versus projected conference front-runners Georgetown and Villanova.
#2: Georgetown
Georgetown and Xavier are in similar situations: both lost their go-to scorers; both ended last season in a disappointing fashion; and both have strong recruiting classes in place with the hopes of turning things around. Yet there is a fairly distinct line between Xavier and Georgetown in these rankings. Xavier’s losses were compounded by the departures of their second- and fourth-leading scorers, whereas with Georgetown, the bleeding mostly stopped with Markel Starks. Graduated senior Nate Lubick was certainly an instrumental part of the team, but he never amounted to anything more than a role player and the return of 6’10”, 350-pound center Joshua Smith will provide the Hoyas with the low-post presence that they desperately needed last season. Smith has previously had off-court issues dealing with academic eligibility and weight control, causing him to be a major liability on the defensive end of the floor, but head coach John Thompson III expects him to be back in full force this season. Regardless of the extent of Smith’s playing time, junior D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera will now be shouldering the burden of expectations. The 6’3″ guard received Big East Preseason Player of the Year accolades and was named to the Cousy Award Watch List, an award given to the top collegiate point guard in the country. With Starks gone, Smith-Rivera is expected to run the show alongside senior Jabril Trawick, who has proven to be a reliable defender over his career, and someone who chipped in with 9.1 points per game last season.
In addition to Smith, the Hoyas boast size up front with 6’7″ sophomore Reggie Cameron, 6’9″ junior Mikael Hopkins and 7’0″ junior center Bradley Hayes, who was used sparingly last season. Despite being constantly hampered by foul trouble, Hopkins’ found a way to contribute in many facets of the game last season. He led the team in blocks with 1.5 per game while also averaging 4.9 rebounds and 0.7 steals per game. His length and disruptive playmaking should not be overlooked this season, as the senior will play alongside a trio of highly regarded recruits at the forward positions. Heading this list is 6’9″ forward Isaac Copeland, the 16th ranked overall player in the class of 2014. Copeland is considered an incredibly versatile player, someone who can handle and shoot the ball but makes his mark by stuffing the stat sheet and contributing in other ways. Joining him are a pair of top 35 recruits, L.J. Peak and Paul White, who are expected to fill in at the wing and could very well provide immediate relief behind Trawick and Cameron. Despite the loss of Starks, there is a strong argument to be made that Georgetown is returning and bringing in more talent than it is losing, provided Smith can actually stay on the court. The big man put up 11.5 points per game last season in just 19.9 minutes of play before facing academic suspension, so he will play a crucial part of the Hoyas’ balanced attack. While the team will likely continue to struggle with outside shooting, Thompson III’s success has always come at the defensive end of the floor, and this year should be no different.
#1: Villanova
That leaves us with Villanova: the near-unanimous #1 selection in all Big East media polls. Just as there is a gap between Georgetown and Villanova in terms of talent and expectations, there is an even bigger one between Villanova and the rest of the Big East. But that’s not to say the Wildcats will simply run the table here effortlessly. Following a 28-4 regular season in which the Wildcats won their first outright Big East regular season title since 1982, the run came to an abrupt halt at the hands of UConn’s Shabazz Napier in the Round of 32. Many doubted whether Villanova was really even a top five team last year, citing a weak schedule and blowout losses to Creighton (twice) and Syracuse as an indication that it was not as talented as its record seemed. That 12-point loss left many fans wondering the same. However, unlike most of their conference foes, Villanova loses only one starter in James Bell as well as backup point guard Tony Chennault. Returning starters JayVaughn Pinkston, Darrun Hilliard and Ryan Arcidiacono were all named to Preseason All-Big East teams, and many believe both Hilliard and Pinkston will compete with Smith-Rivera for the Big East Player of the Year award. Hilliard is a 6’6″ senior crafty swingman who often uses screens to create open looks off the dribble, whereas Pinkston is an undersized 6’7″ forward who thrives by drawing contact under the rim. The 6’3 junior Arcidiacono will look to build on his sophomore campaign, which saw his shooting percentage increase from 34.3 to 39.5 percent, with an assist-to-turnover ratio doubling to 2.5-to-1. These three players, along with 6’11” shot-blocker Daniel Ochefu, combine to form a diversified offensive threat. Junior guard Dylan Ennis is expected to join Arcidiacono in the backcourt as both a facilitator and long-range shooter, although he shot just 30 percent from beyond the arc last season.
What makes the Wildcats more dangerous than last season, though. is their depth. Sophomores Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins are versatile wings who can play and defend three different positions, giving Jay Wright the option to show opponents a number of looks. Joining this cast of players are two ESPN 100 freshmen: 6’2″ guard Phil Booth and 6’7″ forward Mikal Bridges. While neither is as playing-time ready as a guy like Whitehead, Wright will likely ease them into the lineup where he sees fit. The Wildcats have more proven, returning players than any other team in the youth-laden Big East this season; and while there are no sure fire NBA-caliber players, the Wildcats’ balanced scoring attack and multitude of lineup possibilities will make them a touch match-up for just about any opponent. There still remain concerns around Ochefu’s foul trouble due to the lack of depth at the center position, and teams with strong big men such as Xavier and Georgetown will certainly try to exploit this area, along with a somewhat porous perimeter defense. But given the team’s relative skill and experience, Villanova will unsurprisingly be playing with a target on its back in the Big East all season.