Ranking the AAC Non-Conference Schedules: Part I
Posted by Mike Lemaire on November 10th, 2014It might seem that ranking non-conference schedules at this early juncture is a fruitless endeavor, and we understand that sentiment. Smart college basketball fans think they know who will be good and who won’t, but it’s all just educated guesswork until the season starts. That doesn’t mean evaluating non-conference schedules is foolish. Some teams will surprise and others disappoint, but the variance between preseason expectations and season-long success isn’t usually big enough to make schedule analysis worthless. In fact, given the weighty importance the Selection Committee places on non-conference scheduling when it determines the field of 68, analyzing schedules now may lead to clues about which AAC bubble teams could actually get in. We ranked all 11 team’s non-conference schedules from worst to first below, with the first installment featuring teams ranked #11-#6 today. All preseason rankings are courtesy of KenPom.com.
11. Houston Cougars
Kelvin Sampson is Likely Smiling Because Of All The Bad Teams The Cougars Play.
The sky is blue, the sun rises in the east, and the Houston Cougars play an aggressively terrible non-conference schedule – those are the only three things anyone can truly count on. After three seasons in a row of playing one of the worst such schedules in the country, nothing has changed in that regard. The Cougars play six opponents ranked #294 and lower, including such luminaries as Abilene Christian and Houston Baptist. Early games against Murray State and Harvard present important opportunities to notch good wins, but it’s a good thing the Cougars aren’t expected to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth because the committee might laugh this non-conference resume out of the building.
10. East Carolina. Aside from the unlikely chance that the Pirates walk into Chapel Hill and upset North Carolina, there are few opportunities for the team to get any other wins worth noting. East Carolina will ease into its new conference playing an inspired non-conference schedule that includes perennial powerhouses like North Carolina Wesleyan and Virginia-Lynchburg. They will play in the Gulf Coast Showcase, pitting them against a tough Green Bay team and perhaps Fresno State if they win, but the rest of this schedule is littered with opponents that won’t be relevant by the middle of December.
9. UCF. The Golden Knights never really play a quality non-conference schedule, but last season’s slate was especially unimpressive and ranked #346 nationally in terms of difficulty. This season’s schedule looks eerily similar to that one, as Florida State is clearly the best opponent in the early slate and games against Bethune-Cookman and Stetson provide absolutely zero value to the Golden Knights’ RPI – win or lose. Maybe those pushover opponents will help head coach Donnie Jones pad his win total and save his job, but they certainly won’t help UCF if they somehow play their way onto the bubble.
8. Tulane. The Green Wave actually finishes their non-conference schedule with back-to-back competitive road games against Washington and St. John’s or they might be much further down on this list. A season-opening win at home against Wake Forest would surprise a lot of people, but it probably won’t count as a truly good win at the end of the season. Every game sandwiched between Wake Forest and Washington is snooze-worthy, to say the least. The rule book should really mandate that any team playing in what is ostensibly a power conference is hereby forbidden from scheduling games against teams like Mississippi Valley State.
7. South Florida
Anthony Collins Will Try To Lead A Young Team In Some Stiff Road Tests (Kim Klement/USA Today)
The Bulls are one of the least experienced teams in the conference and that’s not great news because their non-conference schedule is relatively competitive. Yes, the Bulls start the season with embarrassing games against Flagler and Jackson State, and apparently every team in the conference is contractually obligated to play Southeastern Louisiana, but the rest of their schedule should be tough. None of this will likely matter when the Bulls finish near the bottom of the conference standings, but USF should be applauded for traveling to play road games against North Carolina State, Alabama and Florida State.
6. Tulsa. Fresh off an NCAA Tournament berth and blessed with excellent returning talent, expectations are high for Tulsa and its non-conference schedule presents the perfect opportunity to announce itself on the national stage. Games against Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are definitely lamentable, but the MGM Grand Main Event in Las Vegas offers an opportunity to get wins over Auburn and perhaps Oklahoma State. Three days after the team leaves the desert, the Golden Hurricane will travel to Wichita to square off with the Shockers in what should be a great game. Also, a home win over Oklahoma in mid-December would go a long way to boosting Tulsa’s resume by March.
