Streamers descended. Confetti flew. An overjoyed Ryan Boatright spiked the ball in elation. Shabazz Napier keeled over in emotion. “I told you,” Napier exclaimed. “I told you.” April 7, 2014, was a magical day for the UConn basketball program. It was the culmination of an exhilarating NCAA Tournament run, one that nearly ended after one game but ultimately concluded in style, and it was a memory that will not soon be forgotten by those involved.
But seven months later, head coach Kevin Ollie and his players are set to get back down to business. A new season looms and new challenges await. And as is the case for any defending national champion, so do expectations. When the new season tips off in 10 days, inevitably, a target will be on the Huskies’ backs. But UConn isn’t your typical defending national champion. Let’s not let recency bias significantly affect our perceptions. For much of last season, the Huskies were a pretty good team, but they weren’t a great one. They spent the duration of conference play outside of Ken Pomeroy’s top 20, and they were a #7 seed for a reason, with their best road win of the regular season coming against a perplexing Memphis squad.
That’s why it’s important to consider sample size. The Huskies were undoubtedly the nation’s best team over a six-game stretch in March and April, but over the longer season, they weren’t. Therefore their tourney triumph has generated unreasonable expectations – expectations that UConn will welcome, but unreasonable ones nonetheless. More important though is what the Huskies have lost. Nearly 58 percent of last year’s minutes have departed. The team’s galvanizing star, Napier, is no longer in Storrs; stretch-four DeAndre Daniels, an integral part of the Tournament run, also bolted for the NBA; and role players Niels Giffey and Lasan Kromah are gone. So the 2014-15 Huskies will have a considerably different look. Two major additions will mitigate those losses. Sophomore transfer Rodney Purvis, a 6’3” guard who two years ago was a highly touted freshman at NC State, will team up with Boatright in the backcourt; and 6’7” freshman wing Daniel Hamilton has been the subject of substantial hype.
However, a look at the analytics reveals some worrying stats regarding the changing of the guard:
- The backcourt tandem of Napier and Boatright garnered much of the attention, but Daniels was actually the second best offensive player on the team. Not only was he more efficient and his effective field goal percentage better than Boatright, his usage rate was also higher and he was a meaningful contributor on the offensive glass.
- Napier was used on a whopping 28 percent of possessions, yet still maintained an incredibly high efficiency rate. That’s nearly irreplaceable. How Boatright and Purvis shoulder that leftover load will be a major question mark.
- Napier scored a lot of points, but his assist rate was also a magnificent 30.8 percent. Boatright’s rate of 21.2 percent was still good, but it’s a far cry from that of the masterful Napier.
- Purvis is still an unknown, and his numbers during his freshman year at NC State – 97.9 offensive rating, 8.7 percent assist rate compared to 18.2 percent turnover rate – were and are uninspiring. Surely he’s improved since then, but he still has much to prove on the court.
The major question surrounding UConn’s title defense will pertain to the ascent of Boatright into the Napier role, and how well he can play it. But as one AAC coach recently told ESPN’s Jeff Goodman, “They [UConn] lost a lot more than people realize. It’s almost as if they have a completely new team.” So it’s not just going to come down to whether Boatwright can essentially become Napier, as Napier essentially was Kemba Walker before him. Instead, UConn will need improvement up and down its roster, and might even need one or two full-blown breakout seasons – sophomore center Amida Brimah is a prime candidate for one, to be sure – to make a serious run at back-to-back titles.
It’s not out of the question that those things happen, and with a conference slate weakened by the departure of Louisville, a strong regular season is possible, if not probable. But it’s tough for anybody to repeat in college basketball, and it’ll be even tougher for this year’s Huskies considering all the pieces they have to replace.