Throughout the preseason, the Big 12 microsite will preview each of the league’s 10 teams, from worst to first. Today: Kansas State.
Kansas State
Looking back at last season, I’m sure most Kansas State fans would say they were somewhat satisfied with how the year turned out. The roster faced major turnover as guys who had shared a Big 12 regular season title the year before either graduated or transferred out of Manhattan. The Wildcats were young and it showed early in non-conference play, with losses to Northern Colorado and Charlotte to go along with Georgetown. Once they returned to the mainland from the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, however, the Wildcats found a star point guard, reeled off 10 wins a row, won all but one of their home conference games, and wound up facing Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament. With seven of their nine rotation players back, Kansas State has the opportunity to disrupt conference hierarchy again and perhaps look forward to a March worth remembering.
Strengths: The star point guard is, of course, sophomore guard Marcus Foster. Foster’s rise last season was almost impossible to predict, but there he was knocking down jumpers and bulldozing through traffic to get to the cup. If that doesn’t sound appetizing enough, throw in transfer Justin Edwards — who put up some big numbers at Maine (16.7 PPG in 2012-13) — and you’ve got a lethal duo of guards who can go toe-to-toe against any backcourt in the Big 12. Another advantage this season is greater depth at the forward positions. Most starting lineups last year featured the 6’7″ Thomas Gipson playing the power forward slot. Not so this season. Help comes in the form of 6’11” Stephen Hurt, a JuCo transfer who spent last season at Northwest Florida State College. Hurt began his college career at Lipscomb, where he won the Atlantic Sun Freshman of the Year award by averaging 11.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game in 2012-13. Brandon Bolden, a 6’11” transfer from Georgetown, will also be eligible this season to provide more frontcourt depth.
Weaknesses: As explosive as the Foster/Edwards administration is sure to be offensively, neither guard is an adept ball-handler or distributor. Foster had a 2.5-to-2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio last season while Edwards was under a 1-to-1 ratio for his two years at Maine. That is not good. It will be interesting to see how much head coach Bruce Weber plays sophomore Jevon Thomas, a reserve who showed the most promise in handling the rock (2.6 APG in 16.3 MPG), with Foster or Edwards at the same time. If Foster is going to give up scoring opportunities in order to find guys like Edwards spotting up, then that leads us to another problem. Despite having Foster and the experienced Will Spradling launching from three last year, the Wildcats shot only 33.1 percent from behind the arc as a team — good for seventh in the Big 12. Spradling has since graduated, which leaves Foster as the only reliable shooter on the team. This could give an opportunity for freshman combo guard Tre Harris to show he can catch-and-shoot from deep, but that seems like a long shot. Another potential problem for Weber this season is how evenly he distributes his playing time among the players. As we said earlier, the Wildcats return seven players who averaged at least 13.8 minutes per game; add those seven to the arrivals of Edwards, Hurt, Bolden, and for the sake of the argument, Harris, and it would not be a surprise to see good players attached to the bench.
Non-conference tests: The real test starts with the always entertaining Maui Invitational where the Wildcats are guaranteed a game versus Purdue. A likely win against the Boilermakers will set up a game with national title contender Arizona, who will likely beat Missouri in its first game in Lahaina. There are also an abnormal number of games Kansas State will play against SEC opponents this season. The first of such contests comes at Tennessee in the Big 12/SEC Challenge on December 6, followed by a tilt against Texas A&M in Kansas City two weeks later, and then at home versus Georgia on New Year’s Eve. In terms of overall non-conference scheduling, this is an average schedule. The Maui Invitational games do most of the heavy lifting because the home schedule is weak enough that the Wildcats should go undefeated there. Their two true road games (at Long Beach State, at Tennessee) are just that — winning those probably aren’t going to add much credibility with the NCAA Tournament committee on Selection Sunday, but losing them could hurt.
Toughest conference stretch: It would have to be the stretch of games from February 7 through March 7. Texas invades Bramlage Coliseum first, and from that point on, excluding the TCU game on February 18, the Wildcats will have to play at West Virginia, Oklahoma, at Baylor, Kansas and Iowa State before finishing up with the Longhorns. The beauty of a round-robin schedule in a deep conference like the Big 12 is that most teams will have several-week stretches of tough game after tough game. Love it.
If everything goes right… Kansas State should be looking at a seed in the #6 or #7 range at NCAA Tournament time. Marcus Foster is able to keep his offensive output going while becoming a capable distributor; someone emerges as a knockdown perimeter shooter; everyone good enough to play does so; and the team makes some noise in the NCAA Tournament. If they do all of those things, Weber will assuredly be awarded with an extension and a raise. Everything’s coming up Milhouse!
If everything goes wrong… Kansas State doesn’t meet the expectations of a team picked by the coaches to finish fourth in the league. Sure, they make the NCAA Tournament again, but it soon becomes the third one-and-done trip in three seasons. The voices of those who didn’t originally approve of Weber’s hire get louder and there’s no raise, extension or any mention of Milhouse. Man, that’s dark.
Projected starting lineup
- PG Marcus Foster (So., 6’3″, 210 pounds, 15.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.5 APG, 39.5 3 PT FG PCT)
- SG Justin Edwards (Redshirt Jr., 6’4″, 200 pounds, 16.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.9 SPG in 2012-13 at Maine)
- SF Wesley Iwundu (So., 6’7″, 205 pounds, 6.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.8 APG)
- PF Thomas Gipson (Sr., 6’7″, 265 pounds, 11.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 56.2 FG PCT)
- C Stephen Hurt (Jr., 6’11”, 265 pounds, 8.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 51.5 FG PCT — JuCo)
Key reserves
- PG Jevon Thomas (So., 6’0″, 185 pounds, 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.6 APG)
- PG Nigel Johnson (So., 6’1″, 185 pounds, 4.1 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.6 APG)
- SG Tre Harris (Fr., 6’5″, 195 pounds)
- SF Nino Williams (Sr., 6’5″, 220 pounds, 6.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG)
- C Brandon Bolden (Sr., 6’11.5″, 215 pounds, 4 games with Georgetown in 2012-13, 5 minutes played, no stats recorded)
I have Kansas State finishing with a 22-9 regular season and a 10-8 record in Big 12 play. The non-conference schedule isn’t too rigorous, which allows for an experienced team like the Wildcats to tear right through it. Ultimately, a #6-#8 seed in the NCAA Tournament sounds about right but I don’t have much confidence picking this team to get past the first weekend. They’re good enough to win their first game, though, and the Weber detractors will likely have to hold their peace for another season.