This will be the first Ohio State basketball team without Aaron Craft on the roster since 2010, despite the fact that it seems like he was the Buckeyes’ point guard since the turn of the century. He and Lenzelle Smith Jr. started on teams that reached the Final Four and Elite Eight in consecutive seasons and manned the backcourt in Columbus for the last three years. Combine this with the loss of leading scorer LaQuinton Ross and the Buckeyes have numerous question marks heading into this year’s campaign. Freshmen like D’angelo Russell and JaSean Tate will certainly help offensively and returnee Marc Loving showed signs last year that he could become a double-figure scorer at some point in his Buckeyes’ career. But this team will only go as far as its senior class — Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, Sam Thompson, Trey McDonald and Anthony Lee — will take them. After a disappointing 25-10 mark as a result of a questionable offense (10th in the B1Gin offensive efficiency), the seniors need to prove that they can continue to defend at an elite level without the services of the best on-ball defender in the country, and that they can actually find better ways to put some points on the board.
Shannon Scott will take over the primary ball-handling duties for Ohio State this season.
(Andy Manis, AP)
At this point it’s probably safe to say that Williams will never be a dominant force on the offensive end. He is, however, useful as a rim-protector, finishing fourth in the league last season in blocks. McDonald made strides last season as a backup big man, showing that even though he too lacks offensive polish, he can contribute on the defensive end and on the glass. Both players foul far too often (a combined 11.1 fouls per 40 minutes), but if the pair can stay on the court long enough to combine for about 15 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per game, then they’ll have done their job as a tandem. Thompson saw his numbers drop across the board last season, and much like with Williams, it’s tempting to just assume that he is who he is at this point in his career. Even if he does nothing to improve his offensive numbers, Thompson can improve his team if he becomes a lockdown perimeter defender (which he has the athleticism to do) and if he increases his rebounding output. At 6’7″, only two conference players at the same size or taller (Will Sheehey and Joey King) had a lower defensive rebounding rate than Thompson last season. He did shoot 40.4 percent from deep as a sophomore, but he slipped back down to 35.5 percent last year. If he can knock down about 38 percent of his attempts from three and add to his rebounding totals, he should be on the floor for Thad Matta at crunch time.
Scott and Temple transfer Lee are probably the two members of the senior class who will ultimately determine how far Ohio State goes next March. Scott will go from being Craft’s sidekick to the role of the primary point guard. He has been equally proficient in causing turnovers and havoc in the backcourt, but how much of that disruption came from playing next to the defensive wizardry of Craft? More importantly, he’s going to have the ball in his hands all the time now. He actually turned the ball over less often than Craft last season, but a 22.2 percent turnover rate is still far too high. To fully compensate for the loss of his backcourt mate, Scott needs to finish the season among the top five in the conference in assists and steals and prove he can make the occasional outside shot so defenses will play him honestly. Lee, to his credit, has a chance to be one of the best graduate transfers in the country. He has experience playing in numerous big games during his career at Temple; he crashes the boards (top seven in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate in the AAC last season), and he can score in the paint (51.1% career field goal percentage). Matta can play him at the four with Williams/McDonald, or he could have him play the five in smaller lineups with Thompson and some combination of Loving or the freshman wings together.
All told, the incoming freshmen class and sophomore Loving will go a long way toward determining how much better this team can be offensively. But it is the senior class that needs to replace some of the intangibles that the team lost with Craft, Smith and Ross. Outside of Lee, this group has been in the same offensive and defensive system for three full years. If they all can make the subtle changes necessary to be more productive offensively while ensuring that their stalwart defense doesn’t slip, Ohio State could make a late-season run and become a very tough out again come March.