The Big 12 microsite will preview each of its teams over the next few weeks, starting today with Texas Tech.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Building a tournament contender — heck, a semi-competitive one — is hard to do when a scandal and mass exodus of players occur anywhere, but especially at Texas Tech. Tubby Smith was hired a season ago to bring stability to this teetering program, and he did just that. The undermanned Red Raiders showed some signs of life in conference play, scoring wins against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas and were two seconds away from picking off Kansas. But then the season came to a close and most of the important pieces either graduated or transferred elsewhere. In all, Tech lost four of their top five scorers (Jaye Crockett/Jordan Tolbert/Dusty Hannahs/Dejan Kravic), and Crockett, Tolbert and Kravic also accounted for the team’s top three rebounders in 2013-14. What they have returning are guys who don’t have much Division I playing experience and will be forced to pick up the slack.
Strengths: Thank goodness for Tubby Smith. His experience alone is going to able to win the Red Raiders a handful of games in which they wouldn’t be favored. If you’re a Red Raiders fan, you’re happy that this year’s team is chock full of guards with legitimate potential. Senior Robert Turner and junior Toddrick Gotcher are the anchors, but the recruiting class Smith has brought in is nothing if not intriguing for both this season and hopefully the future. Let’s start with top JuCo transfer Devaugntah Williams, who dazzled in his final year at Missouri State-West Plains, averaging 17.8 points per game and shooting a sweet 38.6 percent from the three-point line. With freshmen Justin Gray and Keenan Evans making the most noise in the preseason (Gray moreso) and returning reserve Randy Onwuasor on board as well, one of the bigger questions for Smith becomes how to divvy up playing time between six capable guards. I bet it’s a problem that he’d prefer to have.
Weaknesses: Experience is perhaps this team’s most glaring weakness. Turner and Gotcher are the only returning players who averaged at least 20 minutes per game last season. The Red Raiders’ frontcourt is quite thin as well. They knew they were going to be without Crockett and Kravic but Tolbert’s (5.8 RPG in 2013-14) decision to transfer to SMU may have been the biggest blow to the team overall. We also can’t overlook the loss of sophomore Aaron Ross to an ACL injury, but he is reportedly making progress and could return at the start of the calendar year. Aiming to fill those voids are centers Norense Odiase and Isaiah Manderson, who were both impressive on the defensive end of Texas Tech’s Showtime event last week. Justin Jamison, a teammate of Williams at Missouri State-West Plains, put his 6’10”, 245-pound frame to good use, averaging 10.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game while shooting 60 percent from the field in 30 games last season. Another freshman, Zach Smith, is more of a stretch four who can guard multiple positions, but we aren’t expecting to see a lot from him this season.
Non-conference tests: Non-league schedules tend to be a weird thing for Texas Tech. Two years ago, the Red Raiders were able to play every non-conference game at home against some formidable opponents like Arizona and Arizona State. Last season, as you might have guessed, was the year the program had to pay return visits in some of those series which concluded in predictable bloodbaths. This season, however, isn’t exactly the gauntlet that 2013-14 was and at the same time is not a list of cupcakes either. The second game of the season has Tech paying a visit to an LSU team poised to make its first NCAA Tournament under Johnny Jones. Another tough game comes on December 3 when another team from the SEC, Auburn and Bruce Pearl, invades Lubbock. Sure Tech has their share of gimme games but they certainly aren’t depriving themselves of some tough competition before conference play.
Toughest conference stretch: January 24 to February 21 is looking like a deadly stretch in the Red Raiders’ season. [Proceed with caution: stretch of games may be NSFW.] It spans nine difficult games including Iowa State (twice), Oklahoma (twice), at West Virginia, Kansas State, Kansas, at Texas and Baylor, teams that make up the top seven of the Big 12 preseason coaches poll. Find your happy place during this time, Tech fans.
If everything goes right… Texas Tech would finish with its first .500 record or better since 2009-10. We have to keep the expectations tame for the Red Raiders, though, and for good reason. Who knows, maybe that unproven front line becomes one of the most ferocious in the conference and perhaps Justin Gray pulls a Marcus Foster and shocks us all by winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year. But maaaan, those are HUGE ifs.
If nothing goes right… Texas Tech will get killed in the paint; none of the guards separate themselves from each other; and another mass exodus of players is on the horizon. I mean, it was fun to see Tubby Smith dressed as Shaft but wouldn’t it be cruel if his subsequent crash is foreshadowing for the season as a whole?
Projected starting lineup:
- PG Robert Turner (Sr., 6’3″, 190 lbs., 9.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.3 SPG)
- SG Toddrick Gotcher (Jr., 6’4″, 205 lbs., 7.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG)
- SF Justin Gray (Fr., 6’6″, 210 lbs.)
- PF Justin Jamison (Jr., 6’10”, 245 lbs., 10.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 60.6% FG PCT — JuCo)
- C Norense Odiase (Fr., 6’9″, 270 lbs.)
Key reserves:
- PG Keenan Evans (Fr., 6’3″, 175 lbs.)
- PG Randy Onwuasor (So., 6’3″, 195 lbs., 2.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 1.3 APG)
- SG Devaugntah Williams (Jr., 6’4″, 205 lbs., 17.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.7 APG, 38.6% 3 PT FG PCT –JuCo)
- SF Aaron Ross (So., 6’8″, 230 lbs., 3.7 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 38.1% 3 PT FG PCT)
- C Isaiah Manderson (Fr., 6’10”, 235 lbs.)
Texas Tech was picked to finished dead last in the conference preseason poll and that is likely their ultimate fate. There’s just not enough seasoned talent on this roster to make a realistic run at a .500 record, and are still a couple recruiting classes away from talk of an at-large bid. I have Texas Tech projected at a 12-19 regular season and a 5-13 mark in Big 12 play. It’s going to get worse before it gets better.