Rush The Court

Last week, the Big Ten microsite’s Alex Moscoso (@alexpmoscoso) tackled the key question posed here, and answered in the affirmative. Today Deepak Jayanti (@dee_b1g) tackles the same question, ultimately finding a different result. 

If you saw the movie “Draft Day” over the summer, you would have noticed something odd about the NFL. In addition to horrible acting by Kevin Costner as the general manager of the Cleveland Browns, the #1 overall pick in the movie’s NFL Draft was a quarterback from Wisconsin. Any real college football fan would laugh out loud at the practicality of that occurrence because, clearly, Wisconsin football is known for its aerial strengths over the years, right? A couple of years ago, the same could have been said about Wisconsin basketball in the postseason: Never bet on the Badgers making any noise past the Sweet Sixteen. Sure, we can always count on a Bo Ryan team finishing in the top four during conference play, but can we really trust the Badgers to carry the Big Ten brand in March? Could they put up enough points when they hit a shooting slump? Time and time again, we’ve watched highly-seeded Badgers go cold from the field against mid-majors (Cornell in 2010 and Butler in 2011 come to mind) or not have an offensive closer to seal the deal in the final minutes (Syracuse in 2012).

Is this year’s team really all that different just because the Badgers broke through to the Final Four last year? Sure, Bo Ryan has Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker ready to make shots from all over the floor, but something still just doesn’t feel right in betting on the Badgers to get back to the season’s final weekend. Here are three reasons why it is still not a good idea to gamble on Wisconsin in the postseason:

1. A weaker Big Ten may not help the Badgers prepare for postseason play. The Big Ten won’t be a cakewalk this year but it should certainly experience a downward trend after arguably being the toughest conference in college basketball over the past two seasons. Michigan State may have lost too much talent in Gary Harris and Adreian Payne; Michigan’s offense won’t be as explosive without Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III on the perimeter; and Ohio State didn’t add any great scorers, so they will still try to grind out wins on the defensive end, as usual. Assuming that their key players stay healthy, it is a good bet that the Badgers will win as many as 15 league games this year. Whether a tough league helps a team prepare for the postseason is up for debate, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. Rolling through a weaker Big Ten could potentially make Ryan’s team lethargic by the time March rolls around.
2. Can you continue to succeed by giving up more than a point per possession? After years of recognizing Wisconsin’s grit and intensity on the defensive end (especially on the glass), are we ready to presume that the Badgers can continue to just outscore their opponents? While Kaminsky and Dekker are match-up nightmares because of their abilities to stretch the floor, they are also liabilities on the defensive end. Wisconsin ranked 10th in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding last season and there is no indication that they will be any better in that area this year. Including Nigel Hayes in the regular rotation may help alleviate some of those rebounding and defensive woes, but the Badgers’ stars — specifically Kaminsky — need to improve their defensive intensity. Let’s also not forget that Wisconsin’s draw last season included Baylor and Oregon, two teams perfectly willing to engage in shootouts. The Badgers are likely to face some teams that will buckle down on defense and push the Badgers to defend or protect the glass this time around.
3. Luck. The Elite Eight game against Arizona could have gone the Wildcats’ way had it not been for Kaminsky’s excellent hook shot in the paint. We can pick on various fundamental issues with this team but luck in the postseason will primarily drive how far the Badgers go. Consecutive trips to the Final Four takes consistent talent, coaching, toughness and a few favorable bounces or calls to go your way. Predicting Wisconsin’s fate in the postseason five months before March is somewhat ridiculous, but it is fun to discuss because Big Ten hoops is finally back.

Welcome back, readers, and enjoy the season!