Rush The Court

Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of Rush The Court. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.

The Big Ten has been so competitive this season that we have been spoiled with match-ups between top-20 teams frequently during the weeknights. A quick glance through the schedule for the week and you realize that tonight’s game between Michigan State and Indiana features two teams ranked in the top five of the polls and the winner should have the upper hand for the conference title and a #1 seed in March. The Hoosiers controlled the tempo during their first game in Bloomington as they won 75-70, as the Spartans were handicapped for most of it because Keith Appling couldn’t stay out of foul trouble. Indiana’s game against Michigan was well-hyped by the national media because of ESPN Gameday in town for the event, but the second game of the season between two top-five teams from the B1G is no slouch. Folks in the Midwest will need to make sure they get out of work early to prepare for the early tip-off (6:00 PM CST) but as we wait for tonight’s action, the following is a list of key questions about this week’s version of the big game.

1. How will the injuries affect each team? Victor Oladipo didn’t play much against Purdue on Saturday because he sprained his ankle, but the Hoosiers didn’t really need his services against a young Boilermaker squad. Oladipo will need to be nearly 100% for the game in East Lansing because he is the Hoosiers’ best on-ball defender and can help keep Appling from penetrating into the paint. It is tough to keep the point guard out of the paint during the final minutes of games (ask the Jayhawks and the Illini), but Oladipo is probably the only defender in the conference not named Aaron Craft who can make it happen. Oladipo’s quick hands were at work during the first match-up as he stole the ball six times and pulled down seven rebounds. Without their senior at 100%, Indiana’s transition game won’t be as efficient but it is likely that he will still find a way to be effective. On the flip side, Appling needs to stay on the floor and try to avoid the reaches on defense that caused him to pick up some early fouls in Bloomington. Backup point guard Travis Trice’s status is still uncertain for the game but even if he were to play, he may not be as effective because it may take some time for him to get used to the pace after sitting out the past few days. Trice played 30 minutes at the point in Bloomington but was hounded by the half-court pressure as he turned the ball over five times despite dishing out five assists. Freshman guard Denzel Valentine has provided the back-up point guard duties in Trice’s absence but he isn’t very comfortable handling the ball against pressure. Sharpshooter Gary Harris has played through back spasms during the past week but his nagging injury could make a comeback during the game, which could affect his long-range shooting. If the Spartans want to stay in this game without turning the ball over too many times, Appling will need to play at least 35 minutes tonight.
2. Can the Spartans expose the Hoosiers’ lack of interior depth? Despite being only a sophomore, Cody Zeller is a smart player on defense because he hasn’t gotten himself into early foul trouble during many games this year. But if Zeller were to pick up two fouls in the first half, Tom Crean would be forced to either go small with Christian Watford and Will Sheehey in the frontcourt, or bring in freshman Hanner Perea. Few teams have the depth in the low post to put the Hoosiers in such a situation but Michigan State is one of them. It is likely that Zeller will defend Derrick Nix in the post and if Nix makes it a point to continue to pound the ball inside, he may be able to get Zeller in some early trouble. Junior wing Adreian Payne has the size to put the ball on the floor in the paint as well which would force the Hoosier forwards to hold their ground. Crean used a zone for much of the second half during the first game because it is tougher for Nix or Payne to settle into their post moves because the zone would quickly collapse on them, thereby preventing Zeller from finding himself isolated on the block to defend MSU’s big guys. As we approach March, title contenders will look to exploit any potential weaknesses and Indiana’s interior depth could be one of th0se areas.
3. Which version of Adreian Payne will show up tonight? Payne (9.5 PPG; 7.0 RPG) showcased his offensive versatility against Indiana’s zone a few weeks ago by scoring 18 points and shooting 7-of-10 from the field. The Hoosiers had no answer for him during the second half as he hit three of four attempts from beyond the arc to bust the zone and also pulled down nine rebounds. When Payne decides to assert himself on the offensive end, he is a match-up nightmare because only a few forwards in the league can defend him. Because of the range on his jumper, Christian Watford will be forced to come out to the perimeter which could open up the lane for Branden Dawson to clean up any messes on the offensive glass. Dawson is one of the best rebounding guards (10.4% OR) in the nation, as he pulled down eight boards during the first game. Back to Payne, he has the natural talent to be Izzo’s best scorer, but there are certain stretches during the game when he does not actively look for his shot. Every now and then, you’ll see his extreme athleticism when he dunks the ball as the recipient of a lob pass from Appling, but there are only a few games in his career in East Lansing where he has dominated for 30 minutes (much less the full 40). It is hard to believe, but Izzo’s Spartans have flown under the radar over the past few weeks because Indiana and Michigan have been ranked so highly but with a win tonight and a dominant performance by Payne, Sparty could make a strong statement on the national stage that they are not only a favorite to get to the Final Four, but also as a national title contender.