Not to take anyway from a Maryland team that fought hard for the last second win over North Carolina State, but the buzzer beater that induced a court rush is nothing for either side to get worked up about. Before the game, Maryland was a 1.5 point favorite in the gambling world so, if anything, the Terrapins kind of underperformed. If you can’t trust Vegas, can you at least trust Ken Pomeroy? College basketball’s favorite computer gave Maryland a slight edge, giving them a 54.1% win probability right before the tip. Sure, NC State is probably a better team than Maryland, and sure the Wolfpack had a big win against Duke (though this team’s propensity for a hangover game is well-documented), but Maryland was supposed to win this game (albeit narrowly).
Home court advantage matters and in college basketball it’s a huge deal. If Maryland had to go play NC State in Raleigh this season, the Wolfpack would be a clear favorite to win that game. In other words: nobody panic. This game gave us very little in the way of new information. NC State is still a good team, and, this season, losing to Maryland at home isn’t a bad loss. This game shouldn’t change the way the public thinks about Maryland, either, but it probably will.
Maryland Was Expected To Beat NC State
The criteria for the NCAA Selection Committee have encouraged certain tendencies when thinking about teams and their résumés. We know that “quality wins” matter and beating a good NC State team counts towards earning an at-large bid to the Big Dance. While the home court nature of the win is supposed to be accounted for, typically, the committee seems to underrate or outright disregard the role that home court advantage plays in determining a winner. How do we know that NC State qualifies as a good team? Well, rankings in the weekly polls and RPI, of course! The Wolfpack’s rank in the poll and strong RPI ranking mean that we can rely on the powers that be to overrate the importance of the win. For a Maryland team angling to play in the NCAA tournament, this win carries some nice implications.
The Terrapins fought hard for the win, and the excitement of the team and its fans is completely understandable, but there is a sizable gap in the actual magnitude of this win and the perceived magnitude of this win. Luckily for the Terps, this discrepancy favors Maryland.