Throughout the preseason, the Big Ten microsite will be rolling out the featured breakdowns of each of the 12 league schools. Today’s release is the Michigan Wolverines.
Where we left off: The Wolverines entered last season with reasonable expectations but few expected them to contend for the Big Ten title. Freshman guard Trey Burke surprised the Maize and Blue faithful by starting off with a bang early and became arguably the best offensive guard in the league during conference play. As a result, Michigan finished with a 13-5 record in a three-way tie with Michigan State and Ohio State at the top of the conference. Expectations were very high heading into the NCAA tournament as a #3 seed but Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr’s youth caught up with them during their second round game against the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio’s D.J. Cooper shot the lights out against the Wolverines in the early round upset to finish off a disappointing postseason. Nonetheless, an overall record of 24-10 proved that Michigan Basketball is again relevant in the college hoops world.
Positives: The Wolverines can score with the best of them and they can score from different positions on the floor. Burke (14.8 PPG) and Hardaway (14.6 PPG) are a great backcourt tandem who don’t have the greatest range on their jumpers but still find ways to score. Junior forward Jordan Morgan (5.6 RPG) may not look to score so much but he is an efficient rebounder and provides a good presence in the paint that results in easy layups when one of the guards is doubled. The incoming top 25 freshman class provides additional firepower for John Beilein and depth in his rotation. Forward Mitch McGary will add more size to complement Morgan in the post but Glenn Robinson III has the athleticism and skill set to be the best scoring freshman in the Big Ten. Another freshman guard, Nik Stauskas, has a reliable jumper and he is expected to play the role of the designated gunner in Beilein’s offense.
Negatives: Rebounding and three-point shooting will be a concern for the Wolverines. If Morgan gets into foul trouble against key big men such as Cody Zeller or Trevor Mbakwe, they don’t have another reliable big man as a backup. McGary has great size but very few freshmen can quickly adapt to guarding quality big men during their first season in college. Junior forward Jon Horford provides more depth up front but he is recovering from an injury and hasn’t logged consistent minutes during his time in Ann Arbor so far. There is no experienced forward after Morgan on the roster and that could cause some headaches for Wolverines’ fans during conference play. Speaking of experience, Beilein lost two other valuable seniors, Zach Novak and Stu Douglass, to graduation. Both of them understood his offensive schemes well and provided mature leadership to the younger core of players. Novak (41% 3FG) was also an excellent shooter from beyond the arc. Burke and Hardaway have good range on their jumpers but neither is yet very consistent. Hardaway shot 28% from beyond the arc last season and will need to either improve his shooting or be more selective with his shots. Losing forward Evan Smotrycz (43% 3FG) to Maryland does not help either because he was a good shooter who fit well within Beilein’s half court sets. Stauskas certainly has the ability to fill in as the designated shooter but relying on a freshman guard to produce in the clutch is not always a smart bet.
Best Case: The expectations are high for the #5 ranked team in the preseason polls and the best case scenario is a Michigan Final Four appearance in Atlanta. Can Burke lead them to a championship? There is no reason to believe that he can’t but certain holes in the offense that were described above will give them trouble when going up against the top several teams in the country. Burke is arguably the best point guard in the nation and has the nerves to perform during the clutch, but they need to hold their own in the paint against other talented squads such as the Hoosiers, Wildcats, or Bruins. If Stauskas provides the long-range shooting off the bench and Hardaway doesn’t settle for three-pointers, the offense will be very efficient. Similarly, McGary needs buy into his role as a primary rebounder and improve defensively throughout the season. If each of the players know their roles and mesh well together by the end of January, the Wolverines will contend for the Big Ten title and play in Atlanta.
Worst Case: Lack of leadership and issues with team chemistry could derail the Wolverines’ season. Douglass’ and Novak’s leadership will be missed over the first 10-12 games but Burke and Hardaway need to clearly establish themselves as leaders both on and off the court. Hardaway needs to take Robinson under his wing and learn how to efficiently collaborate together on the perimeter. Both of them have similar offensive skills, so it will be very important for the junior wing be efficient on the offensive end. If Burke can’t control the team in the half-court sets and they rely on the deep ball too much, that could dilute their strongest strength which is scoring. Wolverines’ fans should expect the first 6-7 weeks to be tough because of the new faces but the team ought to work well together by the end of January. The worst case would involve an inconsistent Big Ten season which results in only 11-12 wins and a postseason that ends in the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. Most teams would still take Michigan’s worst case but there is too much talent on this squad to fall short of a Final Four and a Big Ten title.
Projected Lineup:
- PG – Trey Burke (So)
- SG – Tim Hardaway Jr. (Jr)
- SG – Glenn Robinson III (Fr)
- PF – Mitch McGary (Fr)
- PF – Jordan Morgan (Jr)