What Does Branden Dawson’s Injury Mean For Michigan State?
Posted by jnowak on March 6th, 2012Michigan State knows plenty about the Kenyon Martin Effect. When Martin — the consensus 2000 National Player of the Year as a senior at Cincinnati after averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 boards, and 3.5 blocks per game — broke his leg in the Conference USA Tournament, it drastically affected the Bearcats’ hopes for a national title. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee took notice as well, and knocked Cincinnati down to a #2 seed, when they probably would have otherwise been the #1 overall seed. It proved to be somewhat prophetic as the Bearcats were upset in the second round by Tulsa, and MSU went on to win Tom Izzo’s only national championship.
Without Branden Dawson, can the Spartans win the Big Ten Tournament or make a run in the Big Dance? (Daniel Mears / Detroit News)
Branden Dawson — the Michigan State freshman wing who tore his ACL in Sunday’s loss to Ohio State –– is no Kenyon Martin. Martin went on to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft that year and has had a nice pro career, while Dawson still has plenty of room to grow though he likely has the highest ceiling of anyone on this Spartans squad. But how will Dawson’s injury affect Michigan State’s postseason chances and the chances the Committee gives them? The Spartans still have to play the Big Ten Tournament (they will be the #1 seed in Indianapolis this weekend), but are unlikely to receive a #1 seed in the Big Dance. If they win the Big Ten Tourney, they are likely a lock for a #2 seed. If they fizzle out, a #3 seed is possible.
Dawson was the Spartans’ second-leading rebounder (4.5 RPG) and third-leading scorer (8.4 PPG), but his value is measured by more than just statistics. It was clear during the second half of Sunday’s game that Dawson’s absence affects Michigan State on both ends of the floor. He is the best pure athlete on the team with the ability to sky for rebounds anywhere (particularly valuable on the offensive glass — he’s tied for sixth in the conference with teammate Draymond Green for 2.2 offensive boards per game) and create opportunities. He is also a scrappy player that a team like Michigan State needs in order to match up with some of the best teams in the country like Syracuse, Kentucky, or North Carolina, all of whom boast tremendous athletes.
Without Dawson, Michigan State will have lean more heavily on Brandon Wood (a senior who has struggled through some inconsistency this season, but started 22 of the Spartans’ 31 games) and Brandan Kearney (a freshman who has grown through the conference season, earning additional minutes). It was an adjustment the Spartans couldn’t make on Sunday, but few teams are better on a quick turnaround than Tom Izzo‘s Spartans (see the 2010 Final Four run without Kalin Lucas as an example, and that was as a #5 seed). Wood averages 8.2 points per game, just a hair below Dawson, but his double-digit scoring output Sunday was his first since February 22 at Minnesota. Kearney has progressed nicely, but averages just 1.1 points per game and hasn’t scored in a game since February 5 against Michigan. In all likelihood, the scoring pressure will fall on Wood and point guard Keith Appling.
Dawson is not the Spartans’ best player — he’s a guy that could carry you to maybe a win or two in the Tournament, not six — but his presence is vital. Michigan State has the weapons to make a run at the Big Ten Tournament title and in the Big Dance, but the likelihood of Tom Izzo’s team reaching New Orleans surely takes a hit now.
Dawson had as many O rebounds as Green in 400 fewer minutes.
The bigger impact is on defense. Individually he was one of the best.defenders and was starting to come around on the “team” defense.
Consider this, when he went down about 11 minutes into the osu game Buford had 4 points. After that he went off, finding open space and mismatches on our 6’3″ sg and 6’1″ pg.