1. Ken Pomeroy is best known for his ranking system that appears to divide the new school from the old school, but his blog, which is much less publicized also produces some interesting analysis. His most recent posting from yesterday will certainly get some attention. In that posting Pomeroy analyzes the correlation between a team’s performance in the first half to the season versus the second half of the season for a specific statistic. In particular, Pomeroy focuses on 3-point shooting and the results may surprise you. We are sure that on a message board or e-mail thread this is sparking some furious debate. We are not sure that we buy everything that Pomeroy is trying to say, but we would love to see more discussion of this theory.
2. Every week Luke Winn brings us excellent statistical nuggets, but this week he brings out one of our favorite relatively straight-forward ones where he looks at assist distribution and also looks at which player relies on those assists most for his scoring. The assist distribution statistic is the more widely used one (including at least once by ESPN last season without citing Winn’s work), but combining it with the assist reliance figure makes it a much more useful tool. We are sure that the analysis for most teams would be interesting, but the analysis for North Carolina and in particular its two super sophomores is noteworthy and will probably lead to a discussion about team dynamics among Tar Heel fans.
3. We linked to the discussion of a Value Add rating system in college basketball earlier this season and if you have been waiting for such a system then this list of the 200 best players according to their “Value Add” is for you. One of the first things I look for when analyzing any new metric is how close does it fit with my beliefs. There are a few names on the list that seem strange, but for the most part the list seems pretty reasonable. By looking at offense and defense in a combined statistic it raises the profile of players that may get overlooked by people who just focus on big-number statistics like points, rebounds, and assists. Obviously, this system needs some more work as suggested by the fact that they made some tweaks from last year’s system.
4. For much of the past ten years Larry Eustachy has the been the subject of many jokes, but this year might be the year that college basketball fans begin to look at Eustachy in a different light. Most of that will be due to his solid Southern Mississippi team, but at least some of it should come from pieces like the one by Pat Forde that take a deeper look into Eustachy’s life beyond a serious of unfortunate photos that hid a much more troubling problem. Having encountered many people who have had to deal with similar problems on a much less public stage, we hope that Eustachy continues to succeed in his battle with alcoholism much more than we care about whether or not his team succeeds on the court.
5. It is probably the worst-kept secret in conference expansion, but Temple is reportedly in talks with Big East about joining the conference. The Big East is especially interested in making this happen soon because the departure of West Virginia to the Big 12 means that the Big East only has seven football teams for next season making next fall potentially embarrassing for the conference (more than just the usual product they put out on the field). Most conference moves surprise us initially, but this one has been so well choreographed and we have seen so many of these moves that we would be surprised if this did not happen.

Each week through conference play, we’ll offer up a couple of different takes on the biggest question of the week in the Pac-12. This week:

 “Which team has had the most surprising season, and which has had the most disappointing? Likewise, which player has had the most surprising season, and which has had the most disappointing?”

Connor Pelton: The most surprising team is Colorado. The Buffaloes were picked by almost every pundit in the nation to finish around tenth in the Pac-12, and here we are with two weeks left in the season looking at a team that is third in the conference and a lock for the NIT. Obviously, their altitude-assisted homecourt advantage has something to do with it, but I think it is great. It is one of the things that make the sport so interesting, so I’m definitely not counting that against them. The most disappointing team has been UCLA. Granted, the Bruins have done better in Pac-12 play, but they have been so wildly inconsistent that you barely notice when they do something good. It took them six games to beat a Division I team, and they had a few head-scratching losses early on.

Andre Roberson And Colorado Have Soared To New Heights This Year (Matt Caivano/Daily Camera)

The most surprising player has been junior forward Brock Motum from Washington State. Motum has been the key to all but a few of Washington State’s 14 wins, and his stats have been amazing. His 17.8 PPG is up +10.2 points from last season, his 6.5 RPG are a +3.5 improvement, and he is averaging +12.9 MPG. His shooting range and ability to completely take over a game is better than any other big man in the conference. The most disappointing player that has completed a full season (Here’s looking at you, Reeves Nelson, Josh Watkins, Jabari Brown, and Jahii Carson) is junior forward/center Joe Burton from Oregon State. Hopes were high for Burton’s junior year as many thought he would take over the point-center role that the Beavers abandoned last season. Early on however, it became apparent that Burton didn’t have the shooting range to take on that position, and as the season progressed he became more and sloppy with the basketball. He has now lost his starting job and his minutes have severely declined over the past few games.

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Kevin Doyle is an RTC correspondent. Follow him on Twitter @KLDoyle11. He filed this report on Ron Hunter from the Georgia State-Old Dominion game in Atlanta Wednesday night.

A year ago on Senior Night — a Friday night game against future NCAA Tournament team George Mason — Georgia State said goodbye to three seniors before a small crowd of 1,127. Many of the students that night could be found in the Student Recreation Center playing pickup basketball, making a last minute run to the store to get some liquid supplies for the weekend, or even in the library catching up on schoolwork. Attending the men’s basketball game? That was far down on the list of things to do on a Friday night.

Fast forward one year, and Georgia State basketball games are suddenly a priority—it is “the thing to do” at night. First year coach Ron Hunter has invigorated not only the basketball program, but the students, alumni, and locals in the area who previously only knew Georgia State basketball existed based upon scores that stream across the bottom line on the ESPN ticker.

In Just His First Season, Ron Hunter Has Rejuvenated The Georgia State Program

Unfortunately, for these fans who have come out of the woodwork to support the Panthers—arguably the best team in the state of Georgia this year — Old Dominion spoiled their final home game of the season by winning 65-60 in overtime, and securing a bye in the first round of the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament. A Georgia State victory would have meant a 20 win season for the first time since the 2003-04 season — something Hunter hoped he could give his current batch of seniors and fans in attendance, all of whom have seen seldom success since the turn of the century. In the postgame press conference, Hunter resembled a dejected and weakened boxer who threw every punch he had during a fight that went the distance:

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Danny Connors is a RTC correspondent. He filed this report after the Syracuse-South Florida game on Wednesday night.

South Florida didn’t have an ideal start to its season. The Bulls went 7-6 in its non-conference slate with losses to Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth and Penn State. The NCAA tournament seemed like an unlikely destination for the program. Now that Jawanza Poland, Anthony Collins and Augustus Gilchrist are all back, this squad has a different feel and look. South Florida doesn’t have a decisive resume-building win, but they’ve been beating up on the lower half of the Big East. After a tough 56-48 loss against Syracuse, the Bulls are tied in fourth place with Georgetown with a 10-5 Big East record.

Against first-place Syracuse, USF looked like a Tournament team. The Bulls opened the game on a 20-9 run. They kept SU out of transition and were hitting shots. To USF’s advantage, the game had no flow and the usually boisterous crowd was quiet. But then Syracuse showed some “spurtability” in the form of a 26-0 run over 12 minutes. The momentum that USF had to start the game quickly disappeared. It seemed as if they would be the next team to leave the Carrier Dome with a blowout loss.

Stan Heath Has His South Florida Squad In The Thick Of The NCAA Bubble Talk (AP)

The Bulls showed toughness, though. They cut the lead to one with six minutes left in the game. Despite not scoring for 11:52, USF almost beat Syracuse and head coach Stan Heath thinks that proves something. “You play the number two team on their home floor and you’re right there with them, I think that tells you a little bit about our team,” he said. Since December 28, Heath’s squad is one of just four teams in the country that hasn’t lost to an unranked team, which not coincidentally is when his roster was finally fully healed. The Bulls face Cincinnati, Louisville and West Virginia to end the season, so they have more chances to bolster their NCAA resume.

Here’s what you need to know about this USF team as they try to make their case for the tournament:

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After more than two months of wars and 15 games in the books, the Big 12 Tournament scenarios are looking a little clearer. Either Kansas or Missouri will win the conference and earn the top seed. Texas Tech will finish last. And Texas will probably find a way to lose another close game to ruin its RPI. With three games to play, here’s a look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for each Big 12 team in the final week and a half of regular season play:

1. Kansas (13-2)

• Schedule: vs. MU, at OSU, vs. Texas
• Highest possible seed: 1 
• Lowest possible seed: 2
• Bottom line: Beat Missouri on Saturday. That’s it. With a victory, the Jayhawks would wrap up another Big 12 title barring a collapse in the final week of the season.

Round Two in Lawrence Could Result in a Big 12 Title For KU (AP/L.G. Patterson)

2. Missouri (12-3)

• Schedule: at KU, vs. ISU, at TTU
• Highest possible seed: 1
• Lowest possible seed: 3
• Bottom line: Win out. Do that and the Tigers at least have a share of the title in their last season in the conference.

3. Baylor (10-5)

• Schedule: vs. OU, vs. TTU, at ISU
• Highest possible seed: 2
• Lowest possible seed: 5
• Bottom line: The Bears cannot earn that elusive two-seed unless they A) win out and B) Missouri loses out. That’s not going to happen, so Scott Drew’s team will likely either play a six-seed on Thursday night or occupy one of the #4 vs. #5 slots on Thursday afternoon.

The 2012 ACC Tournament seating chart was released today. School sections rotate every year, which is why North Carolina finds itself in the end zone and Duke sits at nearly center court. One unfortunate side effect is that Georgia Tech, which plays many of its home games at Philips Arena, is stuck in the opposite end zone. I know the Yellow Jackets aren’t going to make up the majority of fans, but still.

The 2012 ACC Tournament Seating Chart

Another thing you might notice is the sections don’t appear to be the same size. Namely, Miami and Boston College have basically no seats. Combined Miami and Virginia Tech barely match Florida State‘s section, which should be the exact same seat-wise. The Eagles get what looks like about the equivalent of one third of the Duke section. That said, I will be shocked if Boston College or Miami comes anywhere close to filling their respective sections.

The ACC Tournament starts in two weeks. I’m already excited.

Tyler Zeller and Mason Plumlee make up the front line of the NCAA Academic All-American team with Ohio State’s Aaron Craft, St. Mary’s Matthew Dellavedova, and Wofford’s Brad Loesing. This is Zeller’s second straight year being honored for his efforts in the classroom, and he was selected as the 2012 Capital One Academic All-America of the Year. Zeller is the ACC’s first back-to-back Academic All-American since Duke’s Shane Battier was selected in 2000 and 2001.

Tyler Zeller named Academic All America of the Year.

Zeller is majoring in business administration with a 3.62 GPA. On the court he is one of the favorites for conference player of the year thanks to his 15.6 points a game and 9.4 rebounds a game. Plumlee is double-majoring in psychology and cultural anthropology and he iss nearly putting up a double-double this season with 11.2 points and 9.7 boards per contest this season.

The two will face off March 3 in Durham in the final game of regular season ACC play.

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Mountain West and Pac-12 conferences.

Reader’s Take

Top Storylines

Last week at this time, we had five teams who were still serious contenders for the Pac-12 regular season title, all of them within a game of the conference lead. This week, the picture has cleared up considerably, but there is still plenty of intrigue out there. California and Washington both scored big wins over two of the other five contenders (Oregon and Arizona, respectively), in turn not only more or less knocking those teams out of the race for the title, but also cementing their status at the top of the heap. Colorado remains in the mix as well, a game and a half back of the co-leaders. The other component of the race at the top of the conference is the jostling for the #4 spot, which will earn the last first-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament. Oregon and Arizona are currently tied for the fourth spot, but the Ducks own the tiebreaker there on the basis of their earlier win at the McKale Center.

Washington's Win Over Arizona On Saturday Gave The Huskies Reason For Celebration (Elaine Thompson/AP)

What to Watch For

There is really only one big remaining matchup between teams at the top of the conference over the final two weeks of the season: California’s trip to Colorado on Sunday. Other than that, the Bears go on the road to Utah on Thursday before wrapping up their season with a trip to Stanford on the final day of the regular season.

Likewise, Washington will also be spending its last three games on the road, this week against Washington State and next week against USC and UCLA. Depsite the fact that all of those games are on the road, all of those are eminently winnable games for the co-leaders, with the Colorado/Cal game being the sole time when either Cal or Washington will likely not be favored. For the Buffaloes, however, it is going to be an uphill climb. Along with California, they also face Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State, with the latter two on the road – no pushovers anywhere among that group.

As it is, if the Pac-12 Tournament began with the current standings, this is what we’d be looking at. Certainly some pretty interesting semifinals, but my goodness is that Wednesday slate of games awful bad. The best game of the day is at noon and the Staples Center is virtually guaranteed to be whatever the opposite of “rocking” is that day.

Player of the Year Watch

There are a couple of questions here: 1) who is going to win the POTY award, and 2) who deserves to win the POTY award?

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After a Tuesday that saw two bubble teams fall short, Virginia handle its in-state rival, and Georgia Tech embarrass the rest of the conference by only scoring 37 points against Clemson, this Thursday only has a single game. Fortunately what tonight lacks in quantity, it makes up for in quality.

Michael Snaer Likes To Hit Big Shots (In Case You Hadn't Heard)

The Big Game

• #7 Duke at #14 Florida State at 7:00 PM on ESPN

The last time these two teams met, Michael Snaer hit a buzzer beater that led to one of the most awkward silences in the history of Cameron Indoor. With Florida State’s win over Duke, the Seminoles pulled into first place in the conference. The Blue Devils, however, are in great position to enact their revenge while simultaneously making a play for first in the conference. Since the loss to Florida State, Duke has improved as a team; the once abysmal perimeter defense of this year’s team has suddenly rounded into form. Duke leads the conference in fewest three-pointers attempted by opponents (25.4%) as well as in opponent three-point percentage (28.9%). This is good news for the Blue Devils because this Florida State team continues to be underrated on offense: the Seminoles lead the conference in three-point percentage (38.0%) and effective field goal percentage (51.5%). Of course, the defense is there as well: Florida State leads the conference in opponent effective field goal percentage (44.3%) and opponent two-point percentage (42.6%). To win, Duke needs to find a way to effectively guard the big backcourt of Florida State and make a consistent effort to get to the rim against the foul-happy Seminoles. Conversely, if the Seminoles want to win, all they have to do is continue to play the way they have all year (though maybe with less turnovers). It’s been hard for this team to get consistent national respect. Maybe a third win against the Tobacco Road powers will do the trick.

Kevin McCarthy of Parsing The WAC and Sam Wasson of bleedCrimson.net are the RTC correspondents for the WAC.  You can follow Sam on Twitter @AgsBleedCrimson.

Reader’s Take

Looking Back

It was all non-conference games last week in the WAC as everyone participated in the annual ESPNU BracketBusters event and a few teams scheduled mid-week non-conference games (filling the empty slot in the schedule left by Boise State’s departure). Nevada fell to Iona on the road in their televised BracketBuster game while New Mexico State manhandled Drake at home in their televised game.

Power Rankings

1. Nevada (22-5, 10-1): The Wolf Pack was unable to take advantage of an opportunity to solidify their at-large resume losing to Iona 90-84.  The loss wasted a 28-point performance from Olek Czyz and a 21-point game from Deonte Burton. The Nevada bench provided just five points in the loss and continues to be a non-factor, something to keep an eye on when the conference tournament rolls around. The league championship goes back to a hectic format of three games in three days after a double-bye format for the top two seeds last year required just two wins in two days to win the title. The Wolf Pack now fix its eyes back on the regular season title where either a pair of wins this week or any combination of a win and a New Mexico State loss will lock up the top seed in the conference tournament.
   

   Barring A Major Collapse, Deonte Burton and Nevada Are On Their Way To A WAC Title (AP)

2. New Mexico State (20-8, 7-3): The Aggies are hitting their stride at the right time and they love the bright lights of ESPN.  Two of their past three games were televised on the ESPN family of networks and the Aggies not only won both but also had two of their best three point shooting performances of the season, 7-11 at Utah State and 7-13 versus Drake. The three ball has been an issue for New Mexico State (last in the league in three-point percentage) but if the Aggies able to keep up the hot shooting, they may find themselves as odds on favorites to win the tournament title. Read the rest of this entry »