Rush The Court

Bruce Weber’s life has been rough lately. Illini Nation is in a state of shock because the program went from winning four Big Ten titles during the first half of the 2000s to none over the past six years. The second half of the Big Ten conference season in particular has not been a strength since Dee Brown left Champaign. Currently, the Illini are 5-5 after starting 4-1 this season. They started conference play 3-0 last year but then stumbled to a 9-9 record. In 2010, they finished with a 10-8 record despite starting 3-0 in conference play. The motion offense that Illinois runs doesn’t always result in true motion or necessarily better looks at the basket. The problem continues to grow and the losses continue to mound. Their latest loss was to Northwestern at home – only their fifth defeat to the Wildcats in Assembly Hall since 1963. The road schedule looks brutal rest of the way – games at Indiana tonight, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Playing on the road at Lincoln hasn’t been a cake walk either and Indiana can attest to that fact, so their road game at Nebraska is not a gimme by any means. Weber stays within his offensive system and usually doesn’t change direction midway through the season, but maybe that is something he ought to consider if he wants to avoid more losing streaks.

Illinois only averages 62 possessions per game during conference play. They rank ninth in the Big Ten in that category and they average less than one point per possession – 0.98 to be exact. Why not let the kids run a simplified offense? Weber should consider a few changes to his strict offensive schemes and it may loosen up the players. Here are a few reasons why Weber should consider a change to his offensive sets:

1. Keep running: The Illinois guards are excellent defenders because they force turnovers. Opposing guards turn the ball over on about 20% of their possessions and the Illini rank in the top half of the league in that category. Despite the turnovers, Weber’s team don’t create consistent points off of those mishaps. After Tracy Abrams forces a turnover, the other guards don’t always run towards the hoop but rather settle for spot-up jumpers in transition. D.J. Richardson goes straight to the corners, which often forces the guard leading the fast break to dish it out rather than lead to an easy layup or dunk. Illinois’ opponents average 31.4% on the offensive glass and this implies that the Illini have strong defensive rebounding abilities. But the defensive boards should result in a quicker transition game. Another indicator of their slow pace is their overall free throw-attempts per game. Fast break opportunities should result in more trips to the free throw line but Weber’s crew ranks eighth in the Big Ten in this category – only 34% of their total field goal attempts result in a free throw. All that speed in the backcourt  is useless if the guards refuse to drive towards the hoop.
2. Get rid of the designated shooters: Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson account for over 70% of Illinois’ total three-point attempts. Unlike Richardson, Paul would rather attack the hoop than settle for jumpers. Paul’s free throw rate is 46.7 compared to Richardson’s 16.9. Neither of them are efficient from long-range – Paul’s average is 35% while 38% of Richardson’s three-point shots go in. One way to cut down your offense’s reliability on the jump shot is to remove your best shooters from the lineup. Brandon Paul should continue to keep his minutes because he has the ability to attack, but Richardson’s minutes need to be limited. Joe Bertrand and Tracy Abrams would rather push the ball anyway – both of them have only attempted 26 attempts from the long-range this season. Substituting Mike Henry for Richardson might force the offense to move at a faster pace. Bertrand has shown great ability to penetrate and can shoot a consistent floater in the lane similar to Tony Parker of the San Antonio Spurs. There are at least 10 possessions during the game when Weber calls a play for Richardson, though. The play usually consists of Meyers Leonard or Bertrand setting screens for him to get an open look from the corners. Paul stays at the top of the key looking for him but the scouting report is too obvious and the opponents prepare for these specific plays. Weber should surprise the rest of the Big Ten teams by introducing a four-guard lineup with Paul, Henry, Abrams and Bertrand. This lineup also plays into the strengths of Leonard because he would rather not play in an offense that “grinds” it out.
3. Meyers Leonard: Leonard is a star. Every Illini game on ESPN showcases Leonard as one of the best big men in the B1G. He deserves every bit of that attention but his skill-set is not maximized in Weber’s offensive schemes. The offensive system at Illinois stays away from the paint during most possessions as indicated by the low number of  free throw attempts. Weber’s offensive sets consist of post-up plays designed for Leonard but that’s not the best way to utilize his skills. Weber uses the talented sophomore in two ways – to post him up down low or to set screens for the guards. Leonard’s post moves are not very polished yet, though. Asking him to play with his back to the basket is not an efficient use of his existing skill set. Using him to set screens is underutilizing his talent. Once again, transition opportunities and a free-flowing offense where the guards penetrate will help Leonard’s overall efficiency. He has developed a nice 14-foot shot this season where Bertrand and Paul often draw double teams in the paint when they drive and that leaves him wide open to drain that 14-footer. He is also very quick to get up the court, so most fast break opportunities ought to go through him and not through Richardson.

Most players on Illinois can create their own shot… if they are allowed to do that. Bertrand had a coming-out party against Missouri when he hit 10-of-11 shots in a fast-paced game, most of which were on his way to the basket. Abrams is a gutsy kid who doesn’t turn the ball over and plays unselfish basketball despite his youth. Paul is their go-to guy who is a jack-of-all-trades, but Weber needs to trust them and understand that the kids have been playing basketball for over 10 years. Teaching them complicated offensive sets in the motion offense may confuse them especially in late-game situations. Clearly something hasn’t been working with their offense, so a change might not be such a bad idea after all.