Comments on: ATB: Michigan Shuts Down MSU, Florida State Scores, and Anthony Davis’ Block Record…

By: rtmsf

rtmsf — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:47:08 +0000

In reply to garik16.

Garik – here’s what I wrote: “that next step must be taken to recognize that an aggregate approach (Davis’ nation-leading and Kentucky single-season record 87 blocks vs. Mickelson’s 47) is preferred over the alternative.”

My point is that you have to have that additional context from the aggregate or you might actually draw from the blk% stat that Mickelson is a superior shot-blocker. Does anyone actually believe that? As a comparison case, is John Drew really the third-best scorer in NBA history b/c he has the third-highest per-minute scoring average of all-time (over 20 PPG in 29 MPG). Of course not — any number of players from Kobe to Wilt to Shaq were better scorers than that guy. It’s ridiculous.

Time on the floor DOES matter. Not only in terms of pure functionality while they’re out there, but which parts of the game they’re playing in. The blk% stat does not tell us whether Mickelson’s 15 MPG are during crunch time or garbage time or some combination thereof. On the other hand, I can reasonably conclude from Davis’ 30+ MPG that he’s seeing all parts of the game — he both starts and finishes games.

I’m not sure what’s so hard to understand about this conceptually. Stats do not exist in a vacuum; without appropriate context, they’re virtually meaningless (which is why the aggregates should not be taken alone EITHER).

By: garik16

garik16 — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:18:58 +0000

You’re missing my point. The point is that the stat, Block% , isn’t meant to measure which player is more valuable to his team at winning or losing. That’s NOT THE POINT. The point is to determine who is better at blocking shots when he is on the floor. The amount of time someone is on the floor is generally irrelevant to that question.

(The point about SOS is indeed well taken – that’s not irrelevant to the question that Block % tries to answer.)

By: rtmsf

rtmsf — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 17:27:33 +0000

In reply to garik16.

A couple of responses here… first of all, to make the claim that someone is better based on what amounts to a couple of blocks through 18-20 games of a season seems rather absurd to me. Why not take the next step and normalize the block% to strength of schedule? Perhaps Arkansas’ 305th-ranked SOS (vs. Kentucky’s 144th) has something to do with his higher block pct? If Davis is blocking shots at a higher efficiency rate than Mickelson against better competition, doesn’t that in fact make him the better shot blocker? It would I were a GM somewhere evaluating both prospects, but on its face, it ultimately becomes stat massaging and devolves into an absurd splitting-hairs proposition.

The second point here is that there’s a difference between efficiency and effectiveness. If Mickelson is not capable of staying on the floor for more than 15 minutes per game, whereas Davis can for 30+, then this where I argue you need that context. Looking at the block pct. leaders alone doesn’t tell the whole story about each player’s skill at blocking shots. It’s not useful for me to know that he’s really good at rejections without also knowing that he’s incapable of playing enough minutes to truly become effective for his team. You bring up the reasons why he can’t stay on the floor — all good ones — but effectiveness is far more important at the player level to winning and losing games than efficiency alone is.

By: garik16

garik16 — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 14:43:31 +0000

“And This is Why Tempo Free Stats Have Their Limitations.”

This is wrong, by the way. Yes, there may be a sample size issue here (Pomeroy thinks not actually, given that Mickelson qualifies for the Pomeroy top blocks list), but that’s not the reason to argue against Mickelson being a better defender than Davis.

Mickelson very well seems to be a better shot-blocker than Davis (note, Fab Melo is also above Davis, which is a more interesting choice). But he’s an inferior defender to Davis in OTHER WAYS – he doesn’t defensively rebound at a good rate at all (which is part of why Arkansas has a D rebounding rate). And then there’s offense, where Mickelson is a very poor shooter (compared to Davis’ strong shooting) and is not a great offensive rebounder (Davis is solid, though not great in this area).

THIS is why Mickelson isn’t getting the minutes of Davis….he’s better than Davis defensively in one area – blocking shots – but he’s inferior at everything else. That doesn’t mean the shot blocking stat is bad, or that it has limits….it means you just have to use the stat appropriately.