Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Their is only one match-up of Top 25 opponents tonight.  The Battle for Michigan went to the Wolverines last season.  Let’s take a look at who has the advantage this season.

John Beilein and the Wolverines need a big win against their in-state rivals tonight

#9 Michigan State at #16 Michigan – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• Michigan State lost both games to its in-state rival last season in a down year for Tom Izzo and company. This season, the Spartans bring a team into Ann Arbor that ranks in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ohio State, Syracuse, and Kentucky are the only other schools that rank in the top ten in both categories in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Is that our Final Four come March? Possibly, but right now the Spartans have to pick themselves up from a loss to Northwestern on Saturday. The Wildcats posted an eFG of 57.7% against a tough Spartan defense thanks to strong shooting from beyond the arc. It was Michigan State’s worst field goal defense of the season. Prior to the loss on Saturday though, Michigan State had won 15 straight games thanks to solid shooting and fantastic offensive rebounding. While Michigan State has slipped a bit on defense in the conference season, their offensive numbers are getting better. They have improved significantly from the three-point line, increasing their shooting percentage from 36% to 42%. With the Wolverines giving up 41.1% from downtown in conference play thus far, this is an area to keep an eye on throughout the game. Solid three-point shooting and great offensive rebounding is a difficult combination to beat.
• Michigan is in need of a good win. Their last four games consist of a loss at Indiana, a home win against a Wisconsin team in the midst of a three-game losing streak, an overtime win at home against Northwestern, and a blow out loss against Iowa on the road. The Wolverines have seen a significant drop-off in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play. Their three-point shooting percentage has dipped below 30% against conference opponents. To compound the season long ineffectiveness beyond the arc, Michigan is actually shooting more threes in Big Ten play than in the non-conference season. Three-pointers make up 44.1% of Michigan’s field goal attempts in six Big Ten games. Even more alarming is the significant drop in two-point shooting. Michigan is only hitting 48.9% of its two-point attempts against the stronger defenses in the Big Ten. Establishing Jordan Morgan on the inside may be the answer to Michigan’s shooting issues. Morgan is third on the team in two-point attempts and is hitting approximately 65% of his shots. Going down low to Morgan early may open up the perimeter to give Michigan better looks.
• A key match-up in this game will be Michigan State’s offensive rebounding versus Michigan’s defensive rebounding. If the Spartans are able to own the offensive glass, it will put a lot of pressure on the Michigan offense to hit shots since the Wolverines are not good on the offensive boards. Second chance points always beats empty possessions. Given their current shooting slump, it’s tough to foresee Michigan breaking out against a strong Michigan defense. Then again, it’s a rivalry game and anything can happen.

bmulvihill (74 Posts)

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 17th, 2012 at 8:15 am by bmulvihill and is filed under Regular Features, set your dvr. Tagged: jordan morgan, michigan, michigan state, tom izzo. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.