The LSU Tigers are on a six game winning streak that has Tigers’ fans wondering if this could be an NCAA Tournament team by season’s end. LSU beat Marquette last week for its first quality win of the season, but obviously it can’t rest on its laurels. The Tigers have to continue their winning ways. But what exactly will the Tigers have to do to get off the bubble and in the big dance?
To determine what LSU might be up against this year, I decided to look at two resumes (one from a team that made it to last year’s NCAA Tournament and one from a team that did not) from last year to see what the NCAA Tournament selection committee might be looking for:
Team A
- Record: 28-12
- Conference record: 12-6
- Home record: 11-3
- RPI: 31
- Record against Top 50 RPI: 8-7
- Strength of schedule: 61
- Quality wins (based on final RPI):#25, #36, #43
- Biggest losses (based on final RPI): #145, #164, #223
- Final 10 games: 5-5
Team B
- Record: 25-12
- Conference record: 12-4
- Home record: 19-0
- RPI: 61
- Record against Top 50 RPI: 2-5
- Strength of schedule: 95
- Quality wins (based on final RPI):#5, #44, #56
- Biggest losses (based on final RPI): #120, #150, #169
- Final 10 games: 6-4
Team A is Virginia Commonwealth University which obviously made it into the tournament, and did rather well. Team B is Alabama, which did not make last year’s NCAA Tournament. Losses wasn’t the deciding factor between these two teams. The biggest difference was the number of quality wins that VCU accumulated throughout the entire year. VCU won eight games against RPI top 50 opponents, while Alabama had just one quality victory against Kentucky (#5 in RPI). The Crimson Tide needed significantly more to prove that they belonged. The choice is easy in a case in which the two teams were very close, but one played a tougher schedule and got better quality RPI wins.
It is really early in the year, but thus far here is LSU’s resume:
LSU Tigers
- Record: 9-3
- Conference record: 0-0
- Home record: 4-1
- RPI: 52
- Record against Top 50 RPI: 1-1
- Strength of schedule: 100
- Quality wins (based on final RPI):#12, #134, #145
- Biggest losses (based on final RPI): #39, #118, #162
LSU’s path into the NCAA Tournament seems simple: win games. Outside of Grambling State on Thursday, LSU doesn’t have a team remaining on its schedule that would significantly hurt its chances with a loss, and the Tigers’ non-conference losses were not as bad as many assumed when they occurred. LSU has a good chance of being an NCAA Tournament team at the end of the year, but it is obvious that better quality wins are needed. And the Tigers will get plenty of chances. As of this writing, LSU has eight games against RPI top 50 opponents remaining on the schedule. That doesn’t count Mississippi State, a team that is ranked in all of the top 25 polls, but currently sits at #60 in the RPI.
So go ahead Tigers’ fans — dream on. LSU last made an NCAA Tournament in 2009, and 2012 could be the year to do it again, but the Tigers have to beat somebody. And it needs to be somebody good. With teams like Virginia, Alabama and Kentucky coming to the Pete Maravich Center this year, LSU has a number of chances to repeat its performance against Marquette and give itself a legitimate chance to go dancing at the end of the year.