Rush The Court

This year, the SEC will be home to 14 McDonald’s All American Game alumni including JaMychal Green (2008), Kenny Boynton (2009), Renardo Sidney (2009), Patric Young (2010), Terrence Jones (2010), Doron Lamb (2010), Jelan Kendrick (2010), Brad Beal (2011), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2011), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2011), Johnny O’Bryant (2011), Anthony Davis (2011), Marquis Teague (2011) and Kyle Wiltjer (2011). These players are selected using recruiting rankings and evaluations at the high school and AAU level. It is not an exact science, but obviously players ranked in the top of the class generally produce at the next level. Green, Boynton, Sidney, Young, Jones and Lamb have demonstrated their talent through superb play and numerous all-SEC selections among them (Kendrick remains to be seen). This year, expectations are at an all-time high. The focus of this post is on the five newbies the SEC welcomes from the top 12 of Scout.com’s final recruitment rankings for the Class of 2011 – Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Teague, and Caldwell Pope. With that level of talent coming into the league it is certain that the SEC’s overall play and competitiveness will be elevated. However, is there any guarantee that with high expectations comes automatic production?

To get some idea of what we can expect this season from the SEC’s highly ranked incoming freshmen, I have evaluated the top 12 players from Scout.com’s final recruiting rankings over the last five seasons. Why 12? Well, the best answer is that it seemed to be a good cutoff and I was too tired to extend it to 15 or 20. I am only one man people! I examined PPG in their first year in college, as well as results from whether or not they went pro as that is also an indicator of talent or at least potential. Here are the last five years of players and their point production beginning with the Class of 2006 and going through the Class of 2010.

While production of the Class of 2011 remains to be seen, it is apparent that the numbers are in favor of these five elite incoming SEC players. These freshmen will put up big numbers for their respective teams and likely dominate the high picks in next year’s NBA draft. Undoubtedly, we will see some great individual performances and plenty of scoring in the talented SEC, and much of it will come from highly ranked newcomers rather than seasoned veterans. Are these freshmen worth the hype? History suggests the SEC is now home to five new college basketball stars.

Some key findings:

• Of this elite group, 74% (of those who played in college their first year) averaged double figures in points their freshman year.
• Just over 50% (30 + Brandon Jennings) entered the NBA Draft in the first year they were eligible.
• A one-and-done player from this group ended up as the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft in four out of the five years (Blake Griffin was the #1 pick in 2009).
• Thirteen players were a top five NBA Draft pick.
• Finally, 27 of the 44 players (61%) who have made themselves eligible for the NBA Draft went in the NBA lottery. Of that group, 35 (80%) went in the first round.
• One interesting side note, of the 23 players who chose to return to college for at least one more year rather than jump to the NBA, seven went on to win a National Championship.

While production of the Class of 2011 remains to be seen, it is apparent that the numbers are in favor of these five elite incoming SEC players. These freshmen will put up big numbers for their respective teams and likely dominate the high picks in next year’s NBA draft. Undoubtedly, we will see some great individual performances and plenty of scoring in the talented SEC, and much of it will come from highly ranked newcomers rather than seasoned veterans. Are these freshmen worth the hype? History suggests the SEC is now home to five new college basketball stars.