Comments on: Official RTC Bubble Watch: 02.18.11

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 19:24:31 +0000

I’m sorta with Brian on Ok State. They have done nothing of importance, but their schedule is favorable (they’ve got home wins over K-St and Mizzou, but don’t have to return the trip) and their win over Alabama could be a bubble tie-breaker. They’ll need to win their three remaining home games and beat Oklahoma at the end of the year, that’ll get them back to 8-8 in conference and should be enough to get them in… A win in the B12 tourney wouldn’t hurt either.

As for CSU, of their hree big remaining up games, to feel real good about themselves, they’ll need to win the UNLV game and one of the other ones. Although I’d say a 3-2 conference finish and getting to the MWC Semis might be enough.

By: zhayes9

zhayes9 — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 16:35:38 +0000

I think you’re being a little strict Brian. There’s 3 extra spots this year and some of the top non-BCS teams that would normally be locks- Memphis, Butler, Gonzaga- are having down years so there’s going to be less bid stealers. I’ve been a little more liberal with locks this year than in the past for these reasons. I don’t like CSU either, but when you compare them to the other teams are LFI/LFO it magically improves, haha.

By: BOtskey

BOtskey — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 05:23:48 +0000

Alabama is definitely going to be interesting. @ Tennessee and vs. UK are nice wins but the 4 sub-100 RPI losses are killers. I’d probably vote them out although I like the way they’re playing. Still time for them to make a case and maybe go on a conference tournament run. They have won 12 of their last 14 so that does have to count for something.

I’m not so sure West Virginia is a lock just yet. There’s no guarantee they get to 10 BE wins but that is the only thing preventing them from being a lock. They’ll likely get there, I’d just wait a few days. Beat ND tomorrow and they’re in, but conversely I could see this team finishing 8-10 in conference in a worst case scenario.

I think it’s time to take Oklahoma State off the bubble watch even if they beat A&M tomorrow. They’ve done nothing on the road and have only a couple of nice home wins. Their best case scenario is 8-8 in conference and that’s not going to cut it given their resume, even in a year like this.

Speaking of 8-8, Missouri is a team I could see finishing there. Even though they’ve also done nothing on the road, they do have some neutral court wins and 4 top 50 victories as well. They’re in better shape than OSU if both finish 8-8.

I’m just not seeing the argument for Colorado State. Two wins in the top 50 but both of those teams might not even make it (UNLV, Southern Miss). They’ve got a couple of awful losses mixed in as well. At best they’re going to be 11-5 or 10-6 in the MWC and I’m not sure that’s good enough. I guess we have to find 68 teams somewhere, though.