Comments on: The Cases For & Against a Duke Unbeaten Season

By: rtmsf

rtmsf — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 10:00:24 +0000

In reply to Peter, Dallas. Nice work on that Peter. Of course, without Irving, forget about it.

By: Peter, Dallas

Peter, Dallas — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 00:17:56 +0000

Add another reason to “why it won’t happen:” math. Even as a prohibitive favorite in 16 of its remaining 23 games (90+% chance of winning each game), Duke only has a 10% chance to complete the regular season undefeated – never mind the ACC and NCAA Tourneys. As of today, Kansas has a better chance of going undefeated (11%). (#s from KenPom.com).

When should we start “considering” it? If Duke reaches 15-0, running the table up to its first real test (@FSU), the odds to go undefeated (regular season only) would still only be 13%. At 20-0, when the media just won’t be able to help talking about it, the odds would still only be about 25%. They don’t reach even-odds (50%) unless Duke hits 25-0 after the game @Miami. It doesn’t become “likely” unless Duke gets past @VaTech at 29-0 – and even then, the odds are still only about 73%.

By: garik16

garik16 — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 23:24:54 +0000

Agreed. Not complaining about the post, I’m just commenting on the buzz being silly this early.

By: rtmsf

rtmsf — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 20:23:27 +0000

In reply to Matt.

MattP – I dunno, I think Pomeroy is right at about 10%. To me that’s not very strong. The Devils don’t have the look of a juggernaut to me, at least not yet, and that’s ultimately what we’re talking about. If they’re playing relatively close games often enough, eventually they will lose one of them. Good points on the NCAAs, although I think we can safely slot the Devils into the Sweet 16 (just like Kansas last year, right?). Haha. Agree as well on the losing a game theory — it refocuses everyone from players to coaches and relieves a huge amt of the pressure buildup.

MattB – I understand the old man syndrome, but it does cut both ways. Sometimes the crush of the modern media starts feeding off of itself, and before you know it, the 2009 Tar Heels are being discussed as an all-time great team when they’re really not one. Thanks for the ambiguity props — I’ll certainly leave it to you to decide which one I meant.

Garik/SA – appreciate the comments, as always. It’s WAAAAAY early, but we’ve heard enough buzz already that we thought it was a post. Trust me, this’ll be discussed ad nauseum the further Duke heads down this path. I for one kinda hope they make a run at it. I enjoy the discussion.

By: SA

SA — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 18:23:30 +0000

@Maryland, @Virginia Tech, @Carolina. Road games and those teams always play Duke tough. Virginia Tech is always that team in the days leading up to Selection Sunday saying “hey, we beat so and so” and that doesn’t look like it’ll change this year. I haven’t seen Maryland at all this season except for their last second win against CofC (and as a CofC student and fan gaaah) but if that’s the best they can do then they’ll need a big win too. I’m convinced Carolina is better then what we’ve seen so far. Plus rivalry game, last game of the season, etc.

As a Duke fan I would LOVE to see them go undefeated. And if you want to go undefeated this is the year to do it, especially since the ACC is down. I just think it won’t happen. I say they lose two out of those three games I mentioned, @Maryland and @Carolina. They’ll still be the #1 overall team in the tournament though.

(See how I didn’t talk about the tournament? Matt said it all above. Plus, I’m superstitious about this stuff. Don’t judge me.)

By: garik16

garik16 — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 17:10:48 +0000

Heh. Undefeated is fun and all, but well, still way too early to talk about it. Every team has a bad game and opponents have good games…it just takes one game where both happens and bam, a loss.

If Duke beats Maryland on February 2, then we can start talking about it for fun. Until then, long season to go.

By: Matt B.

Matt B. — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 16:47:45 +0000

Thank you for the analysis. I agree with everything regarding Duke, but I can’t help but think the exact opposite about your last point regarding people exaggerating current teams vs. the past. I think that more often, people tend to get old man syndrome and remember the good old days very fondly vs. the present. Past champions always get put on a pedestal because time has worn away memories of the flaws that those teams had, while flaws of current teams are at the fore front.

As for your prediction, I find it deliciously ambiguous. In an article where you point out two sides of a coin, your record specific prediction allows for two possibilities. 36-3 after a 29-2 season means either that Duke loses the ACC semis and wins the National Title or they win the ACC and then lose in the National Semis. If you meant to have just one (likely the latter) that’s cool, but major props are due if you purposefully left it ambiguous.

By: Matt

Matt — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 15:27:30 +0000

I think Duke has a strong chance to go unbeaten in the regular season. I think it’ll take a close to perfect endeavor by one of the top ACC squads (right now at Maryland and at Chapel Hill look the most threatening), but I think Duke has the firepower to overcome those scares. That said, teams become better when they lose the invincibility aura. A lot of times losing games gives the coaches ample leverage to make necessary changes. So in that sense, I think a loss or two in the regular season would help Duke tremendously.

But even if they go undefeated in the regular season, the NCAA tourney is impossible to predict. Upsets like last year might knock out Kansas, Michigan State, Pitt, and Ohio State before they get a shot at the Blue Devils. It’s fun to talk about, but the beautiful thing about the tournament is it’s totally unpredictable. What looks like a hard road is made into an easy one by a couple of upsets.

So it’s pretty easy to argue that Duke will or will not go undefeated in the regular season. But so far this team doesn’t feel lightyears ahead of the competition, and unless that changes it’s tough to hand them the Big Dance without seeing the match-ups.