Rush The Court

Forget the Coach K to the New Jersey Nets rumors (seriously, how cool would it be to watch Krzyzewski turn down increasingly ridiculous offers…  $15M: nah.  $25M: no way.  $50M: sure I’ll think about it.  $100M: ok, but only if you throw in something for Collins and Wojo.), the hottest coaching commodity that we’ve seen in a great number of years is none other than Butler’s 33-year old wunderkind, Brad Stevens.  Everyone in college basketball circles would love to be in his position right now, with a limitless number of suitors and a potential preseason top-five team returning in 2010-11.  If you’re Stevens and you decide to leave, you can ask your new employer for the moon; if you’re him and you decide to stay, you can ask your current employer for Venus.  No matter what his final decision will be, he can make demands that few ADs, Barry Collier included, can afford to turn down. 

Given that environment, there are currently three open positions with enough name recognition, cash and prestige to lure Stevens away from his home state of Indiana.  Let’s break down each of those situations plus a fourth alternative of staying at Butler for a while longer. 

Oregon.  Oregon has made no bones about its desire to get a big name to replace Ernie Kent this year.  Tom Izzo and Tubby Smith have already reportedly turned down the Ducks and Phil Knight’s mattress stuffed with cash, but both of those guys are old-timers (relatively speaking) who have climbed the mountaintop before.  Stevens is 33 years old and makes a good living at Butler (~$400k annually), but he has two young children and when you’re facing the prospect of generational wealth as he would at UO (~$2-3M), it clouds the somewhat feel-good picture of staying at Butler for the ‘fit.’

• Pluses: Obviously, money and top-rate facilities in the form of the brand-new Matthew Knight Arena (opening Winter 2010-11) and the adjoining practice facility.  A commitment to basketball through Phil Knight’s largesse.  A down Pac-10 will make for an easier ascendency to the top in the next two seasons.  Oregon loves its Ducks — strong statewide support.  Did we mention the money? — five mediocre years there and he’s still sitting on a huge bankroll. 
• Minuses:  In its heart of hearts, Oregon is a football school.  Recruiting to Eugene isn’t easy outside of the Pacific Northwest, and an Indiana guy would probably be out of his element there.  He’s looking at a rebuilding situation next season — the Ducks will not be very good for a while.  Oregon basketball feels more like a stepping-stone appointment rather than a destination one.  It rains an awful lot there.

Wake Forest.  With today’s firing of Dino Gaudio after three seasons and two NCAA trips, it’s clear that Demon Deacon AD Ron Wellman has bigger things in mind.  The school has a small but passionate fanbase that would hire the Easter Bunny if they thought he could beat Duke and Carolina on a regular basis.  Wake has money to spend, but there’s no bottomless pot of (black and) gold of which Wellman can draw from like Oregon.  Still, the ACC is still the most prestigious basketball league in America, and Wake is a prime situation for the right coach.

• Pluses:  Tobacco Road: few places in the country match the commitment and passion of the fans in this part of the country about college basketball.  Stevens would find a similar situation to what he left in Indiana.  There is enough talent in the Carolinas and Atlanta to support another top twenty program in this area on talent alone — Wake could provide the platform for Stevens to make that leap and pay him handsomely for the privilege.  Like Butler, Wake is a small, private university with a commitment to academics, so he wouldn’t be making a huge change in comfort level.
• Minuses:  Tobacco Road: did we mention that three of the last six champions and two Hall of Fame coaches reside about 80 miles down the road in Durham and Chapel Hill?  Many a coach has come to NC State and Wake Forest with high hopes only to learn that harsh reality the hard way.  Getting wins in the ACC won’t be as easy a proposition as it was in the Horizon League.  Butler is a low pressure job, but Wake demands a lot from its coaches — perhaps more than can reasonably be expected.

Clemson.  We’re still reeling from the fact that Oliver Purnell left this job after three straight NCAA appearances to join one of the worst BCS programs in America in a city where the local high school coaches wield all the power.  Either he was in trouble there behind the scenes, felt completely unappreciated after four straight twenty-win seasons or he was lured by all the dollars that DePaul threw his way.  Probably the latter.  Would Stevens want to join one of the few football-centric schools in the ACC just so he could become an ACC coach? 

• Pluses:  Clemson brass has shown a greater commitment to basketball in recent years, paying Purnell $1.6M annually despite never having gotten past the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  There is a wealth of talent in South Carolina and Georgia, and Clemson is a name-brand school around those parts.  If anyone ever got that program beyond the first weekend of the NCAAs consistently, it wouldn’t be difficult to envision CU as a powerhouse in that region.
• Minuses:  Upon last check, Clemson is still a wannabe big-time football school who also plays basketball — fans would take a BCS win over a Final Four there without thinking twice.  Oliver Purnell just left this now-NCAA regular program for… DePaul, the worst program in the Big East?  Is that a joke?  Even though Clemson is well removed from Tobacco Road, the spectre of those two schools is always present — recruiting against them and playing against them on an annual basis is taxing to even the best coaches — ask former top Tiger, Rick Barnes.

Butler.  And then there’s the most logical destination, which is to say no destination at all: Stevens just stays where he is.  There’s no doubt that he’s going to get a healthy raise from the school — after all, he just led them to a tick from the national title in his third season.  The money probably cannot compete with the above three schools, but the bigger question is whether Stevens truly believes that he can build Butler into the Gonzaga (or better) of the East?  What does he aspire to do someday?  If he thinks he can consistently field a national power in Indianapolis, then he should probably stay there.  However, if he’s concerned about the level of talent he can get after his three stars (especially Hayward) take off for greener pastures, then he should probably leave.  Looking at it objectively, though, a lot of things broke just right for Butler to make the title game this year.  They’re a great team, don’t get us wrong, but they also caught a few breaks along the way.  As good as Hayward/Howard/Mack are, does anyone believe they’re going to be back in the national championship game again next year?  The difficult truth is that Stevens may have already reached his pinnacle at that school (keep in mind Mark Few has only been to an Elite Eight at Gonzaga, and that was eleven years ago). 

• Pluses:  Clearly, familiarity and comfort.  He’s an Indiana kid with family nearby.  He’s not had to make a major move in his coaching career yet.  The pressure will be on to make another Final Four, but it won’t be the kind of pressure that he would experience at any of the other three above schools.  He’s already a deity there, and expectations will not be as great.  Plus, racking up wins in the Horizon League is a lot easier than in the ACC or even the Pac-10.
• Minuses:  The money thing.  Butler can pay him, but he won’t join the top echelon of coaches in pay for a while, if ever.  The danger that they never get back to this spot — how will that impact his career if Butler is upset early next year and the year after that?  Playing with the target on their back.  They’re used to it in the HL, but how about nationally?  Recruiting — we still wonder just how easy it is to recruit to a mid-major school in Indiana without top-notch facilities (Hinkle is great, but it’s lacking in some areas).